Author Topic: When will we reach 100 launches per year again, and when will the record fall?  (Read 17311 times)

Offline Tywin

Historic launch per year  :D





With the new record of china, and the spacex, and in the future, the new launchers, new glenn, stratolaunch, virgin orbit, and others small launcher...

When we reach the 200 launch per year?  ??? ;)



Edit/Lar: corrected subject line
« Last Edit: 10/01/2018 07:57 pm by Lar »
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Offline JH

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It's not out of the question that 100 are launched this year. There have been 72 YTD.

China has said that it plans to launch 40 times this year (they have launched 25 so far); SpaceX has another 4 or 5 launches planned. This gets the number up to a little over 90.

Russia has 6 launches scheduled and the Europeans have another 5. Japan has 2, India has between 2 and 6, and ULA has 2. Then there is an Antares and (theoretically) a Pegasus by NGIS, and hopefully an electron launch.

Some of those won't happen (China's schedule is obviously very ambitious), but that gets you up to 110+ scheduled launches, not accounting for anything unexpected, like an Iranian or a North Korean launch.
« Last Edit: 09/23/2018 01:18 am by JH »

Offline Tywin

It's not out of the question that 100 are launched this year. There have been 72 YTD.

China has said that it plans to launch 40 times this year (they have launched 25 so far); SpaceX has another 4 or 5 launches planned. This gets the number up to a little over 90.

Russia has 6 launches scheduled and the Europeans have another 5. Japan has 2, India has 2, and ULA has 2. Then there is an Antares and (theoretically) a Pegasus by NGIS, and hopefully an electron launch.

Some of those won't happen (China's schedule is obviously very ambitious), but that gets you up to 110+ scheduled launches, not accounting for anything unexpected, like an Iranian or a North Korean launch.

Yeah very good estimate you make, maybe this year we reach the 100 launch...is difficult because, China has delay for the CZ-5 accident...

But the big question is when we break the historic record...o  even better, when reach the 200 launch per year?

And this is important in my opinion, becacause is a world effort..and show how strong is the industry of space in the future...
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Offline skybum

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There's a good resource here for looking at the history and near-future of space launches:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_spaceflight

Reading the tea-leaves, 2018 looks to me like it'll have 110±4 launches. Definitely a banner year, and next year should be better still!

There are a very large number of small-sat launchers that are due to start flying just within the next 6 months. If even a fraction of these succeed, then it will greatly accelerate the raw number of launches (without actually putting that much additional mass in orbit). Personally I think this may be a bit of a bubble; I'm not convinced there's so much demand for small-sat launches. But even allowing the demand to materialize fairly slowly, I think this is the start of a geometric acceleration of the launch rate. So I'm betting on 200+ launches happening by 2023 (that's a 14% annual growth rate).

Offline speedevil

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SpaceX has to launch some 7000 starlink satellites by 2023.
If these all go up on F9, this is more than a hundred launches alone - likely peaking at >40/year.
FH doesn't greatly decrease the number of launches.
They also have plans in 2022 to launch ~twelve times because of Mars.

Offline Tywin

SpaceX has to launch some 7000 starlink satellites by 2023.
If these all go up on F9, this is more than a hundred launches alone - likely peaking at >40/year.
FH doesn't greatly decrease the number of launches.
They also have plans in 2022 to launch ~twelve times because of Mars.

Good estimation skybum  :)

Exactly speedevil, and thats have to count the OneWeb constellation, and all new cubesats is going to launch in the new small launchers...



My bet is before than 2025 we reach the 200 launches per year...
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Though we could easily break 100, or maybe even 200 launches per year with disposable/expendable launchers, the only way to sustainably exceed 100 launches per year and move towards 1,000 or more is to shift to reusable rockets.

So far SpaceX is still fine tuning their reusability efforts, so we have not yet seen what they are capable of, and of course they need to have something to launch on reusable rockets too.

I think it will stay about the same number of launches per year for a while until the market finally starts responding to the lower launch prices reusability brings, and THEN we will start to see the number of launches per year accelerate.

Edit/Lar; changed subject line.
« Last Edit: 10/01/2018 08:06 pm by Lar »
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Tywin

Though we could easily break 100, or maybe even 200 launches per year with disposable/expendable launchers, the only way to sustainably exceed 100 launches per year and move towards 1,000 or more is to shift to reusable rockets.

So far SpaceX is still fine tuning their reusability efforts, so we have not yet seen what they are capable of, and of course they need to have something to launch on reusable rockets too.

I think it will stay about the same number of launches per year for a while until the market finally starts responding to the lower launch prices reusability brings, and THEN we will start to see the number of launches per year accelerate.

Edit/Lar; changed subject line.

Even with the reusable rockets, if we see a increase launches per year...maybe when start the new heavy generation of rockets, is possible we see a stagnation o a reduption rate of launches...because, is not the same launch in a Falcon 9 than a BFR...o in a Proton, then a New Glenn o even in a future New Armstrong...

In me opinion in the next 5 year we go to see a increase rate of launch...and when coming the new generation of heavy rockets a decreasing rate for a long time...

1000 launch per year thats is something amazing to see...but I think so that maybe take a decades for that...

PD: If is necessary change something i wrote, is no problem for me, I am not a english speaker primary, i still learning...
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Even though the number for this year looks to come out at a value somewhere between 100 and 120, next year 2019 may dip back under 100. But 2020 with if the big constellations launches get going in earnest then the launches could be back up to the 120 number followed each year with an increasing amount as more and more economic pressure on the constellation companies to get their sats launched increases. The increases will not be larger but more on the order of 10-20 additional launches per year. The exception comes when much larger launchers are used to do these constellation launches. Such as NG taking over almost all OneWeb launches and doing the same for other larger constellations with SpaceX offering BFR to do the same with their own constellation as well as offering this cheap (hopefully) launcher to others willing to buy rides. So somewhere in the early 2020s the launch rate is likely to dip significantly before it starts back on a climb at even a faster rate due to the cheaper $/kg offered by these larger LVs. This will make other as yet identified business cases viable. As more business cases become active requiring more and more launch then the launches will go up with the use of these large partial and fully reusable LVs.
« Last Edit: 10/06/2018 12:53 am by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline Zed_Noir

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Does any of the previous annual flight rate estimates take into account the many BFS tanker flights needed to support all SX BEO and some SX GEO missions?

Offline Tywin

Does any of the previous annual flight rate estimates take into account the many BFS tanker flights needed to support all SX BEO and some SX GEO missions?

Very good point, I have not think in that before...

Yeah if you think in all future missions of SpaceX BEO they go to need a lot BFS tanker...that is double launchers in every case...
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Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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Does any of the previous annual flight rate estimates take into account the many BFS tanker flights needed to support all SX BEO and some SX GEO missions?

Very good point, I have not think in that before...

Yeah if you think in all future missions of SpaceX BEO they go to need a lot BFS tanker...that is double launchers in every case...
Using BFR for BEO is those new business cases/private mission/government missions to BEO causes the launch rate to expand rapidly due to the fact up to 6 launches (5 tankers plus main payload launch). Just 4 Lunar missions per year would be 24 launches in itself. Now add 6 Mars missions per synod and that is another 18 launches per year average. Things could expand quickly if there are interest and customers that want to go to BEO locations. This affects other providers too such as ULA's Vulcan/ACES with distributed launch for heavy BEO payloads and BO developing and then providing New Armstrong as a fully reusable? and refuelable? LV. In both cases multiple launches to do a single BEO mission. Up to 3 launches for Vulcan/ACES (2 tankers and 1 payload launch) enabling high DV capability for full size 30mt+ payloads to BEO destinations. Since there is almost no information about the NA the number of tanker launches if any at all possible is an unknown.

But the launch rates will not rise exceptionally fast but in spurts as new government projects are funded and new business cases are attempted by investors/developers.

Offline smoliarm

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Even though the number for this year looks to come out at a value somewhere between 100 and 120, next year 2019 may dip back under 100.
...
I agree that this year total will be more than 100, but my estimate is a bit less than yours: 102 - 108 launches total.
And I do not believe 2019 will show dip below 100.
Here is what I would expect from year 2019 in terms of *number of orbital launches worldwide*:

PLUS (increase):
*** Start of OneWeb deployment (up to 10-15 Soyuz launches);
*** Rocket Lab's Electron goes "online" (up to 6-8 Electron launches);
*** LauncherOne goes - if not in true "online" mode, hopefully it will go in test flights;
*** Number of Chinese startups (half-dozen?) say they are going to start test flights very soon. And may be some of them will (one or two);
*** ISRO says they are going to increase launch rate significantly in 2019;

MINUS (decrease):
*** Roskosmos general crisis, however I would not expect total Russian launches to drop in 2019 more than 2-4 per year;
*** Chinese number of Beidou launches will go down (ca. from 10 to 6)
*** SpaceX also may lower its pace, but just a bit, 2-3 launches per year.

May be I'm missing something, but if I'm not - the year 2019 will be on the order of this year - at least, with a fair chance for increase.
Well, if Rocket Lab goes in routine mode - it could ALONE compensate for all the above *minuses*.

...
 The exception comes when much larger launchers are used to do these constellation launches. Such as NG taking over almost all OneWeb launches and doing the same for other larger constellations with SpaceX offering BFR to do the same with their own constellation as well as offering this cheap (hopefully) launcher to others willing to buy rides. So somewhere in the early 2020s the launch rate is likely to dip significantly before it starts back on a climb at even a faster rate due to the cheaper $/kg offered by these larger LVs.
...
- I doubt we will see this effect.

All these BIG rockets - they are in *plans* or in the *early engineering* stages. And none of them have confirmed business case, although there are some hopes. It definitely WILL take time.
On the other hand, there is a lot of SMALL rockets in works: Electron (flying), LauncherOne (almost flying :) ), Vector, Firefly, Tsiklon, Chinese small-rocket startups (which I admit being too lazy to make a list).
Most of this list will not make it to the finish (production). But some of them - definitely will. And more importantly - they DO have confirmed business case, the demand for nano- and micro-sat launchers exists, and it will.

So, alternatively, I would expect the number of orbital launches worldwide to increase in near future - more or less steadily.

With respect to *All Time Record*,
I'd hope it will change within five years :)

Offline edkyle99

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I agree with those who expect a leveling off or decline in launch numbers within a year or several, followed by who-knows-what further down the road.  The big new launch vehicles follow the example of goods transport through the ages.  The company with the biggest ship usually wins.  Bigger means less cost per kg of cargo, but also means fewer trips. 

The ultimate limit is the money available to spend by satellite owners. 

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 10/08/2018 06:00 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline Tywin

Very good post smoliarm  :D

Plus, we will expect other european small launcher, like PLD Space, Orbex, Orbital Access, Skyrora, zero2infinity, etc...start flying in the next 2 years...

Plus, Stratolaunch, and GenerationOrbit, both almost ready...

Plus new countries with her launchers... Corea, KLSV2, Argentinian, Tronador II-III, Brasil, VLM-1, Indonesia (new orbit launcher family), Australia, Gilmour space, and maybe Malaysia with Independece-X...

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Offline Tywin

Roscosmos will carry out 17 space launches in 2018 and over 35 launches in 2019  :D

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Russia_plans_to_carry_out_17_space_launches_in_2018_999.html

If this year we don't break the mark of 100 launch, the next year is almost sure...

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Offline Hog

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Roskosmos is doubling their launches for 2019?  That's interesting, good luck Roskosmos.
Paul

Offline skybum

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I agree with those who expect a leveling off or decline in launch numbers within a year or several, followed by who-knows-what further down the road.  The big new launch vehicles follow the example of goods transport through the ages.  The company with the biggest ship usually wins.  Bigger means less cost per kg of cargo, but also means fewer trips.

This depends where you are on the price/demand elasticity curve. For many goods, big containerships dropped the cost of shipping by 90%. But this catalyzed a > 20x increase in demand. The result (at certain points) was not just bigger ships but also more of them.

Anyhow, I seriously doubt we'll see a leveling off in launch numbers anytime soon. This is not a particularly scientific way of doing things, but using https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_spaceflight as a resource:

 - At the beginning of the year, there were 168 launches planned for 2018
 - Currently 89 of those have launched, 41 are still planned for this year, and 38 have definitively slipped into 2019
 - Let's take a rough guess and say we end the year with 110 launches, with another 20 slipping into next year. This would mean that the world launched 65.5% of what it intended to at the start of year.
 - Currently there are 164 launches on the books for next year -- 184 after 20 roll over from 2018.
 - So if the industry maintains its same ratio of intended launches to actual launches, we'll see >=120 launches in 2019.
 - My guess is that the ratio will actually be a bit higher than this, because much of the slippage from this year has been attributable to early-stage launch companies (like RocketLab and Virgin) that are actually moving forward. As they move closer to meeting their schedules, I wouldn't be surprised to see > 130 launches in 2019.
- From 2020 onwards, the LEO constellations start ramping up. This'll keep the launch industry busy for a while, and by the time that market saturates, there are other things I expect will be coming online (enabled by the new heavylift and crew capabilities).

I do think you're right, though, that the glut of small launchers entering the market can't really be sustainable in the long term, and that ultimately most of those payloads will end up riding on larger vehicles. But I don't think that'll happen until those larger vehicles are flying frequently enough and to a sufficiently diverse number of orbits that one can be assured of getting a ride to any given orbit within a couple of months' notice. That'll take a while, but when it happens, mass-to-orbit will be a much more interesting number to track than the raw number of launches.

Offline oldAtlas_Eguy

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The count for this year is now at 94. With 16 more with a specific date of launch showing. Also there is 22 additional with aspirations for launch in 2018. Those though are unlikely but may still be 1 or 2 surprises. There are 5 scheduled launches for the U.S. (4 F9 and 1DIVH).  So the safe conclusion is that 2018 will be a value between 100 and 110.

Offline advaidhya

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Though we could easily break 100, or maybe even 200 launches per year with disposable/expendable launchers, the only way to sustainably exceed 100 launches per year and move towards 1,000 or more is to shift to reusable rockets.

So far SpaceX is still fine tuning their reusability efforts, so we have not yet seen what they are capable of, and of course they need to have something to launch on reusable rockets too.

I think it will stay about the same number of launches per year for a while until the market finally starts responding to the lower launch prices reusability brings, and THEN we will start to see the number of launches per year accelerate.

Edit/Lar; changed subject line.

Even with the reusable rockets, if we see a increase launches per year...maybe when start the new heavy generation of rockets, is possible we see a stagnation o a reduption rate of launches...because, is not the same launch in a Falcon 9 than a BFR...o in a Proton, then a New Glenn o even in a future New Armstrong...

In me opinion in the next 5 year we go to see a increase rate of launch...and when coming the new generation of heavy rockets a decreasing rate for a long time...

1000 launch per year thats is something amazing to see...but I think so that maybe take a decades for that...

PD: If is necessary change something i wrote, is no problem for me, I am not a english speaker primary, i still learning...

The real deal about large number of launches is by using solid fuel launcher just like missiles. ISRO's SSLV is the only one that holds promise for that. No matter what reusable rockets spacex use, the cost of reusing and assembling itself will be very high.

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