It's not out of the question that 100 are launched this year. There have been 72 YTD. China has said that it plans to launch 40 times this year (they have launched 25 so far); SpaceX has another 4 or 5 launches planned. This gets the number up to a little over 90. Russia has 6 launches scheduled and the Europeans have another 5. Japan has 2, India has 2, and ULA has 2. Then there is an Antares and (theoretically) a Pegasus by NGIS, and hopefully an electron launch. Some of those won't happen (China's schedule is obviously very ambitious), but that gets you up to 110+ scheduled launches, not accounting for anything unexpected, like an Iranian or a North Korean launch.
SpaceX has to launch some 7000 starlink satellites by 2023.If these all go up on F9, this is more than a hundred launches alone - likely peaking at >40/year.FH doesn't greatly decrease the number of launches.They also have plans in 2022 to launch ~twelve times because of Mars.
Though we could easily break 100, or maybe even 200 launches per year with disposable/expendable launchers, the only way to sustainably exceed 100 launches per year and move towards 1,000 or more is to shift to reusable rockets.So far SpaceX is still fine tuning their reusability efforts, so we have not yet seen what they are capable of, and of course they need to have something to launch on reusable rockets too.I think it will stay about the same number of launches per year for a while until the market finally starts responding to the lower launch prices reusability brings, and THEN we will start to see the number of launches per year accelerate.Edit/Lar; changed subject line.
Does any of the previous annual flight rate estimates take into account the many BFS tanker flights needed to support all SX BEO and some SX GEO missions?
Quote from: Zed_Noir on 10/06/2018 06:50 pmDoes any of the previous annual flight rate estimates take into account the many BFS tanker flights needed to support all SX BEO and some SX GEO missions?Very good point, I have not think in that before...Yeah if you think in all future missions of SpaceX BEO they go to need a lot BFS tanker...that is double launchers in every case...
Even though the number for this year looks to come out at a value somewhere between 100 and 120, next year 2019 may dip back under 100....
... The exception comes when much larger launchers are used to do these constellation launches. Such as NG taking over almost all OneWeb launches and doing the same for other larger constellations with SpaceX offering BFR to do the same with their own constellation as well as offering this cheap (hopefully) launcher to others willing to buy rides. So somewhere in the early 2020s the launch rate is likely to dip significantly before it starts back on a climb at even a faster rate due to the cheaper $/kg offered by these larger LVs....
I agree with those who expect a leveling off or decline in launch numbers within a year or several, followed by who-knows-what further down the road. The big new launch vehicles follow the example of goods transport through the ages. The company with the biggest ship usually wins. Bigger means less cost per kg of cargo, but also means fewer trips.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 10/01/2018 07:51 pmThough we could easily break 100, or maybe even 200 launches per year with disposable/expendable launchers, the only way to sustainably exceed 100 launches per year and move towards 1,000 or more is to shift to reusable rockets.So far SpaceX is still fine tuning their reusability efforts, so we have not yet seen what they are capable of, and of course they need to have something to launch on reusable rockets too.I think it will stay about the same number of launches per year for a while until the market finally starts responding to the lower launch prices reusability brings, and THEN we will start to see the number of launches per year accelerate.Edit/Lar; changed subject line.Even with the reusable rockets, if we see a increase launches per year...maybe when start the new heavy generation of rockets, is possible we see a stagnation o a reduption rate of launches...because, is not the same launch in a Falcon 9 than a BFR...o in a Proton, then a New Glenn o even in a future New Armstrong...In me opinion in the next 5 year we go to see a increase rate of launch...and when coming the new generation of heavy rockets a decreasing rate for a long time...1000 launch per year thats is something amazing to see...but I think so that maybe take a decades for that...PD: If is necessary change something i wrote, is no problem for me, I am not a english speaker primary, i still learning...