Number of cargo and manned spacecraft in 2030?

[Tywin]

How many spacecraft will we have by 2030, from Soyuz, Oryol, Shenzhou, the new Chinese manned spacecraft, Orion, Dream Chaser cargo and manned, Dragon cargo and manned, Starliner, Cygnus, HTV-X, maybe Starship cargo and manned, Rocket Lab capsule, Nyx cargo and manned, Ariane Susie spacecraft, Space Tango cargo, Gangayaan, etc....

What do you think?

[Paul451]

You might want to clarify the phrasing. "More than 5" includes all the other options, bar "none".

Plus there's nothing between "none" and " more than 5". The range 1-5 is missing.

[Vahe231991]

If no more Starliner flights are contracted before 2030 in order to create logistical and operational wiggle room for future Dragon 2 manned missions, then the Starliner could be retired before 2030 after the completion of the Starliner-6 flight.

Stay tuned for the possibility that the Boom start-up could develop a version of the Overture to be used as a HOTOL-type aerospaceplane that can use solid-fuel rocket boosters for take-off and climb to altitude before using the scramjet engine for ascent to 160,000 feet, after which the auxiliary rocket engine can be used for the final kick into LEO.

[DanClemmensen]

Do you mean number of individual spacecraft, or number of types of spacecraft? There will be at least seven Dragon 2 capsules. does this count as 1 (the Dragon 2 class) or as 2 (the Crew Dragon and Cargo Dragon subclasses) or as 7 (individual capsules)?

If Starship flies, how many does this count as? Is a tanker a cargo spacecraft? Is a depot  a cargo spacecraft? Is a specialized Starlink dispenses Starhip a different class than a "standard" cargo spacecraft?

I vote "it depends".

[Vahe231991]

Do you mean number of individual spacecraft, or number of types of spacecraft? There will be at least seven Dragon 2 capsules. does this count as 1 (the Dragon 2 class) or as 2 (the Crew Dragon and Cargo Dragon subclasses) or as 7 (individual capsules)?

If Starship flies, how many does this count as? Is a tanker a cargo spacecraft? Is a depot  a cargo spacecraft? Is a specialized Starlink dispenses Starhip a different class than a "standard" cargo spacecraft?

I vote "it depends".

I think whoever wrote the poll meant to refer to the number of spacecraft types.

[Eric Hedman]

It’s a loaded question.  The answer is zero. 

The United Nations Net Zero program will eliminate all carbon greenhouse sources by 2030.  That means there is just seven fertile years left to get off the planet before anything reacting with a carbon atom is subjected to permanent global totalitarian banishment.

Don't give them ideas.  If they read this post, they will try to do it.

[jebbo]

Limiting this to crew vehicles, you can make a decent guess at the numbers (2030 is not that far away):

National: Oryol, Ariane-CREW, Shenzhou, Gaganyaan, Orion
Commercial: Starship (v2), Starliner (probably), New Glenn, Dream Chaser.

Possibly also European and Chinese commercial offerings.
Also possible that Dragon and Soyuz are still in use.

So 10 or just over ...

--- Tony

Edited: initial post was my 2036 projection ... so I had some "-NEXT" vehicles. I'm dubious of Ariane-CREW by 2030, but definitely by 2036.

[DanClemmensen]

Limiting this to crew vehicles, you can make a decent guess at the numbers (2030 is not that far away):

National: Oryol, Ariane-CREW, Shenzhou, Gaganyaan, Orion
Commercial: Starship (v2), Starliner (probably), New Glenn, Dream Chaser.

Possibly also European and Chinese commercial offerings.
Also possible that Dragon and Soyuz are still in use.

So 10 or just over ...

--- Tony

Edited: initial post was my 2036 projection ... so I had some "-NEXT" vehicles. I'm dubious of Ariane-CREW by 2030, but definitely by 2036.

Soyuz and Dragons (both cargo and Crew) will still be in use in 2030 because ISS will be so near EOL that replacing them is not cost effective.
Starliner wlll have flown its last flight in 2029.
"Cargo and manned spacecraft" include the Artemis program's support spececraft, including two different HLSs. "Cargo" opens an entire new opportunity to argue about what is a "cargo spacecraft".

[Vahe231991]

Limiting this to crew vehicles, you can make a decent guess at the numbers (2030 is not that far away):

National: Oryol, Ariane-CREW, Shenzhou, Gaganyaan, Orion
Commercial: Starship (v2), Starliner (probably), New Glenn, Dream Chaser.

Possibly also European and Chinese commercial offerings.
Also possible that Dragon and Soyuz are still in use.

So 10 or just over ...

--- Tony

Edited: initial post was my 2036 projection ... so I had some "-NEXT" vehicles. I'm dubious of Ariane-CREW by 2030, but definitely by 2036.

Soyuz and Dragons (both cargo and Crew) will still be in use in 2030 because ISS will be so near EOL that replacing them is not cost effective.
Starliner wlll have flown its last flight in 2029.
"Cargo and manned spacecraft" include the Artemis program's support spececraft, including two different HLSs. "Cargo" opens an entire new opportunity to argue about what is a "cargo spacecraft".

You forgot to mention the Orel (aka Oryol) because that spacecraft is intended to replace the Soyuz manned spacecraft. It's unclear if the Shenzhou will still be in service in 2030, but your guess about the Starliner's timeframe for retirement is about as good as mine.

[AmigaClone]

Thinking about it, several factors will determine the number of crew and logistics space vehicles that are flying in 2030.

Russia and China are planing to transition to new crewed spacecraft, potentially also creating new logistics spacecraft based on those new crewed spacecraft. The date of the beginning of that transition, how long it might take, and if both the new and old crewed spacecraft are being used at the same time or not potentially will affect the numbers of crew and logistics spacecraft from those two countries (0-4 possible spacecraft)

I fully expect three versions of Dragon flying (Cargo, Cargo XL, and Crew).
I also can see three logistics spacecraft to the ISS (Cygnus, Dream Chaser, and HTV-X)

Gaganyaan and Orion likely will be flying or at least will be active. I give a 50/50 chance of Starliner either making it's last landing in 2030, or for it to have been certified to fly with crew on another launch vehicle (Vulcan-Centaur).

Things get complicated with Starship. I would count the Tanker version as a logistics spacecraft. I can see at least three other logistics Starship types (Lunar Cargo - based on the HLS, Mars Cargo - variant of the Lunar Cargo, and Orbital Logistics Starship - logistics to space stations). There might actually two versions of Lunar Cargo with the second version

I can see several versions of Crewed Starships as well - possibly two variants of HLS (one capable to taking crew to the surface of the moon and back without SLS), Crew Mars, and Polaris Starship. The later would be designed to support DearMoon type missions as well. Potentially Polaris Starship could be used for short to medium term near zero-g labs.

[Vahe231991]

Thinking about it, several factors will determine the number of crew and logistics space vehicles that are flying in 2030.

Russia and China are planing to transition to new crewed spacecraft, potentially also creating new logistics spacecraft based on those new crewed spacecraft. The date of the beginning of that transition, how long it might take, and if both the new and old crewed spacecraft are being used at the same time or not potentially will affect the numbers of crew and logistics spacecraft from those two countries (0-4 possible spacecraft)

I fully expect three versions of Dragon flying (Cargo, Cargo XL, and Crew).
I also can see three logistics spacecraft to the ISS (Cygnus, Dream Chaser, and HTV-X)

Gaganyaan and Orion likely will be flying or at least will be active. I give a 50/50 chance of Starliner either making it's last landing in 2030, or for it to have been certified to fly with crew on another launch vehicle (Vulcan-Centaur).

Things get complicated with Starship. I would count the Tanker version as a logistics spacecraft. I can see at least three other logistics Starship types (Lunar Cargo - based on the HLS, Mars Cargo - variant of the Lunar Cargo, and Orbital Logistics Starship - logistics to space stations). There might actually two versions of Lunar Cargo with the second version

I can see several versions of Crewed Starships as well - possibly two variants of HLS (one capable to taking crew to the surface of the moon and back without SLS), Crew Mars, and Polaris Starship. The later would be designed to support DearMoon type missions as well. Potentially Polaris Starship could be used for short to medium term near zero-g labs.

It remains to been seen if there will be multiple crewed Starship variants, but a tanker version of the Starship might be feasible because it could be used for example to provide fuel for the Starship HLS lunar landers or Starship second stages bound for Mars.

The Cargo Dream Chaser will actually be the first Dream Chaser variant to carry out orbital flights, being scheduled for launch next year, and the manned Dream Chaser will follow afterwards. If China is contemplating a successor to the Shenzhou, that replacement could bear resemblance to either the Orion or the cancelled Shuguang, the latter which would have resembled the Gemini spacecraft but was smaller and lighter.