Quote“We’re leaning at around 1.7 million lb. thrust, although at one point we looked at what if we went to 3.5 million lb. thrust. ... <snip> ... With the baseline Merlin, which is throttle-able to 60%, SpaceX believes a version that could throttle down to around 1 million lb. (I would assume Elon means throttle 3.5 million lb. engine to 1 million lb.) could potentially equip vehicles such as the Atlas V as well as replace engines on Falcon 9.So we now have two possible sizes for the Merlin 2, and the fact that he's willing to sell engines to other launch providers.
“We’re leaning at around 1.7 million lb. thrust, although at one point we looked at what if we went to 3.5 million lb. thrust. ... <snip> ... With the baseline Merlin, which is throttle-able to 60%, SpaceX believes a version that could throttle down to around 1 million lb. (I would assume Elon means throttle 3.5 million lb. engine to 1 million lb.) could potentially equip vehicles such as the Atlas V as well as replace engines on Falcon 9.
His guarantees ain't worth a bag of beans considering how late and more expensive both Falcon 1 and 9 were from his original estimates.
IThe single-core Falcon X is listed at 38mT to LEO, which is nearly within reason for the very largest military and commercial payloads of the foreseeable future. I feel this architecture is a bit on the heavy side, but if costs are reasonable enough...
Quote from: marsavian on 12/03/2010 12:14 pmHis guarantees ain't worth a bag of beans considering how late and more expensive both Falcon 1 and 9 were from his original estimates.He never gave price or schedule guarantees for F1 or F9, and at the time he didn't have as much financial flexibility (divorce proceedings locked up money) or as much money in the past (Tesla market cap is now >3.3 billion) which can be leveraged for low interest loans and tossed into SpaceX if he wants to. If you mean a gigantic bag full of solid gold beans, then I agree with you.
In fact, it would seem that SpaceX would benefit strongly from selling some form of or jointly-developing "Merlin 2".
Still doesn't mean that F9 or whatever will be profitable or better than what else is out there.
Quote from: Jim on 12/03/2010 01:39 pmStill doesn't mean that F9 or whatever will be profitable or better than what else is out there.True. But there is the ABILITY to backstop, and to make guaruntees of development and early flight prices (NOT COSTS).
Aviation Week article....QuoteNASA Studies Scaled-Up Falcon, MerlinSpaceX will respond to NASA’s heavy-lift launch vehicle study with concepts that can carry 150 tons to orbit and cost no more than $300 million per launch.Outlining SpaceX’s approach to the contract—one of 13 trade-study awards made by NASA in early November to look at innovative launch vehicle concepts and propulsion technologies—CEO Elon Musk says only plans that embrace economic, political and technical solutions will work.>
NASA Studies Scaled-Up Falcon, MerlinSpaceX will respond to NASA’s heavy-lift launch vehicle study with concepts that can carry 150 tons to orbit and cost no more than $300 million per launch.Outlining SpaceX’s approach to the contract—one of 13 trade-study awards made by NASA in early November to look at innovative launch vehicle concepts and propulsion technologies—CEO Elon Musk says only plans that embrace economic, political and technical solutions will work.>
Quote from: docmordrid on 12/03/2010 03:21 amAviation Week article....Based on a roughly evenly split $10 billion budget for heavy lift, with half for the boost stage and half for the upper stage, “we’re confident we could get a fully operational vehicle to the pad for $2.5 billion—and not only that, I will personally guarantee it,” Musk says. In addition, the final product would be a fully accounted cost per flight of $300 million, he asserts. “I’ll also guarantee that,” he adds, though he cautions this does not include a potential upper-stage upgrade.His guarantees ain't worth a bag of beans considering how late and more expensive both Falcon 1 and 9 were from his original estimates.
Aviation Week article....
Of course, I wish more that Elon got the "depot" meme.
SLS is a technological lower risk (and probably schedule-wise as well), yes, but it is quite a stretch to write that "we have" SLS. Especially since the final configuration for SLS has not yet been decided. Nor is it a 100% certainty at this point.
What ability? He is not going to be able to use any money from tesla
Of course, I wish more that Elon got the "depot" meme.~Jon
He can walk into a bank today, and say "I have a billion dollars worth of tesla stock that I want to use as collateral for a loan."
Elon isn’t going to get money for a hydrogen upper stage for F9, but he could be stirring the SLS pot.The current politics do not favor the depot meme.