Author Topic: Elon and the moon  (Read 6547 times)

Offline westflech

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Elon and the moon
« on: 12/17/2018 06:38 pm »
Hi.  I'm new to this blog, hope the following idea is not old hat already.  I've been thinking about Spacex, and the other ventures Elon is involved with.  I have a scenario that links (almost) all his ventures to open up the solar system to exploration, manned and otherwise.  Not saying if this is or is not possible any time soon, just hoping to get some feedback.  Everyone I talk to about it thinks I'm crazy. 

Anyway, I see Elon now plans to have a moon base, in addition to Mars aspirations.  His Boring Co is also working on creating much faster TBMs.  If you put a nose cone on a TBM, it is kind of the shape of the upper stage of his BFR.  Anyway, in my proposal, the Boring Co could create a fast TBM that works in a vacuum.  Spacex would then get the TBM to the surface of the moon.  TBMs need power.  Elon's solar power systems to service.  Set up the solar plant on the moon surface.  Once the tunnel is created, or more likely as it's be being dug, line the tunnel with Hyperloop tech linear inductors.  Linear inductors would send the future missions on their way, and could probably be used to lift the tunnel rock to the surface during construction.  Rail gun tech might also work here. 

So you now have a tunnel, up to 2,000 miles long, lined with linear inductors, pointed away from the earth.  If the moon's center is molten, build the tunnel off-center.  Using higher G forces would allow for a shorter tunnel, but it would only work for unmanned missions.  2,000 miles, at 8G for 5 minutes, would add about 55,000 MPH for a manned mission.  You would only need fuel for maneuvering and slowing down on destination, weight would not be an issue, so you would be able to add radiation shielding.  Using something like rail gun G force, 50,000 G, would get you to almost 1% of light speed.  I can't think of any other idea out there to get a probe to anything like interstellar speed.   You would have to wait till the moon was pointing in a specific direction, but the windows would be monthly, not every 2 or 3 years.  Most of the points of interest in our solar system are on a common plane.  It would really cut down on the length of a Mars mission, and might open up the rest of the solar system for manned.   Unmanned probe launches would be very much less expensive and much quicker, just need to get the packages to the moon.  Also, is Elon going to consider sending Tesla cars to the next solar system to expand his market?  That part has at least been tested beyond earth orbit.                 

Obviously there are a lot of details left out here.  I don't see anything that is impossible in the near future, but it would be expensive and difficult. 

Offline Bob Shaw

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #1 on: 12/17/2018 07:24 pm »
Interesting thoughts, thanks for posting them. There are a couple of gotchas regarding the electromagnetic launcher - and, in some ways it is easier than you suggest. Firstly, you need a *LOT* of payload capacity to build your launcher - and, you probably need high temperature superconductors (though you could always launch at night). There’s no need for a tunnel at all. And, you certainly wouldn’t try to tunnel through the Moon - the core is certainly plastic, if not molten, and the pressures are enormous.

A boring machine could build a Lunar base, and might be a serious asset - but making one capable of working on the Moon might be hard. Lunar rock isn’t like we see on Earth - it is largely breccia, from small stones up to ‘mega breccia’ at depth, and the jury is still out regarding the strength it exhibits. Additionally, the Moon comes with millions of free holes in the form of craters - it’ll always be cheaper to put a base together in a crater and then fill it with rubble (living in a crater will reduce your radiation exposure on both the Moon and Mars just by itself).

The biggest unique product from Musk’s stable will be PV panels - he has real economies of scale and manufacturing experience. Electric vehicles may also be a resource - he’s already sent one out to the orbit of Mars!

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #2 on: 12/17/2018 09:19 pm »
Hi.  I'm new to this blog, hope the following idea is not old hat already.  I've been thinking about Spacex, and the other ventures Elon is involved with.  I have a scenario that links (almost) all his ventures to open up the solar system to exploration, manned and otherwise.  Not saying if this is or is not possible any time soon, just hoping to get some feedback.  Everyone I talk to about it thinks I'm crazy. 

Anyway, I see Elon now plans to have a moon base, in addition to Mars aspirations.  His Boring Co is also working on creating much faster TBMs.  If you put a nose cone on a TBM, it is kind of the shape of the upper stage of his BFR.  Anyway, in my proposal, the Boring Co could create a fast TBM that works in a vacuum.  Spacex would then get the TBM to the surface of the moon.  TBMs need power.  Elon's solar power systems to service.  Set up the solar plant on the moon surface.  Once the tunnel is created, or more likely as it's be being dug, line the tunnel with Hyperloop tech linear inductors.  Linear inductors would send the future missions on their way, and could probably be used to lift the tunnel rock to the surface during construction.  Rail gun tech might also work here. 

So you now have a tunnel, up to 2,000 miles long, lined with linear inductors, pointed away from the earth.  If the moon's center is molten, build the tunnel off-center.  Using higher G forces would allow for a shorter tunnel, but it would only work for unmanned missions.  2,000 miles, at 8G for 5 minutes, would add about 55,000 MPH for a manned mission.  You would only need fuel for maneuvering and slowing down on destination, weight would not be an issue, so you would be able to add radiation shielding.  Using something like rail gun G force, 50,000 G, would get you to almost 1% of light speed.  I can't think of any other idea out there to get a probe to anything like interstellar speed.   You would have to wait till the moon was pointing in a specific direction, but the windows would be monthly, not every 2 or 3 years.  Most of the points of interest in our solar system are on a common plane.  It would really cut down on the length of a Mars mission, and might open up the rest of the solar system for manned.   Unmanned probe launches would be very much less expensive and much quicker, just need to get the packages to the moon.  Also, is Elon going to consider sending Tesla cars to the next solar system to expand his market?  That part has at least been tested beyond earth orbit.                 

Obviously there are a lot of details left out here.  I don't see anything that is impossible in the near future, but it would be expensive and difficult.
Welcome to the furum. A railgun of that size would be truely awsome, but I fear will not be within near term capabilities to build due to the shear size and amount of equipment required.

If such capabilities were available it would be much easier to assemble the 2000 mile track in space or on the surface of the moon rather than through the centre of the moon as the forces inside would be huge and would crush the tunnel probably well before it was 100 miles down. It would also require an enourmous amount of energy, which would need a lot of infrastructure to set up (to say the least).
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)

Offline garcianc

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #3 on: 12/18/2018 04:31 am »
Parts of this idea have similarities with StarTram so I wouldn't say that it is crazy.

Online RoboGoofers

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #4 on: 12/18/2018 03:29 pm »
1/100 c is ~3000 km/s, and requires 4.5e9 MJ (or ~1 Megaton of TNT)  for a 1000 kg probe.  in fact a nuclear bomb might be the best way to get the required potential energy to the track on the moon. much more mass efficient than building power plants and running cables.

the bomb energy isn't very focused, though, unless you use the special bombs designed for project Orion.

In fact, do away with the track as well and just build project Orion.
« Last Edit: 12/18/2018 05:12 pm by RoboGoofers »

Offline KelvinZero

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #5 on: 12/19/2018 12:57 am »
The hyperloop is probably too far off these sorts of rail-gun approaches to be relevant to spacex.
I have been meaning to start a similar topic in Advanced Topics, but wasn't exactly sure how to word it.

The question is really what is the most feasible momentum-exchange based set-up we could have to beat methods that are based on the rocket equation.. except I also wanted to include beamed propulsion as an option, if it could clearly beat fusion and fission based rockets within the solar system.

Momentum exchange would be ideal because you could have fantastic velocity between two nodes (say cis-lunar space and the saturn system) while recycling most of the energy.

(edit)
Another way of putting it could be how can future regular interplanetary travel look, further than Mars, if we exclude handwavium torch-ship drives like the Expanse uses.

« Last Edit: 12/19/2018 01:02 am by KelvinZero »

Offline Comga

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #6 on: 12/19/2018 04:44 am »
Quote
Set up the solar plant on the moon surface. 
After that things get difficult ....
Picking at individual elements of your post is like swatting at black flies.
Musk has a plan and a rocket company and we have here a very long first post.
Welcome to the forum.
You can learn a lot here.

What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Michel Van

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #7 on: 01/07/2019 07:55 am »
i guess that Elon Musk has great plans with the Moon

i think that will SpaceX install an Moon base for production of Liquid Oxygen and it's by-products
with access to lunar liquid Oxygen in Low earth orbit
would reduce the Tanker launches for Starliner only to liquid methane

The by-products would be metals like iron, titan. Silicon and rare earth elements
last one is much needed raw material for Electronic industry and rechargeable battery like for Tesla cars.
This rare earth elements mining could be economical viable since the name hinge it extrem rare on earth,
While the Apollo 12 astronauts walked in that stuff in 1969

Offline ChrisWilson68

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #8 on: 01/07/2019 08:11 am »
i guess that Elon Musk has great plans with the Moon

i think that will SpaceX install an Moon base for production of Liquid Oxygen and it's by-products
with access to lunar liquid Oxygen in Low earth orbit
would reduce the Tanker launches for Starliner only to liquid methane

The by-products would be metals like iron, titan. Silicon and rare earth elements
last one is much needed raw material for Electronic industry and rechargeable battery like for Tesla cars.
This rare earth elements mining could be economical viable since the name hinge it extrem rare on earth,
While the Apollo 12 astronauts walked in that stuff in 1969

No.  Rare Earth metals aren't really that rare on Earth.  And they're not particularly abundant on the Moon.  Certainly it would be far, far cheaper to mine them here on our home planet than to mine them on the Moon, for far into the future.

And it's cheaper to send the LOX up from the Earth's surface to orbit than to generate it on the surface of the moon and then ship it up from there to where it's needed for a trip to Mars.

Mining is hard.  Really hard.  It's very labor-intensive.  It's very fluids-intensive.  It's very energy-intensive.  Lots of parts need lubrication and maintenance, and lots of things need cleaning and replacement.  And all the technology for mining, that we've developed over thousands of years, is all based on working in our atmosphere.

Offline Michel Van

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #9 on: 01/07/2019 10:55 am »

The by-products would be metals like iron, titan. Silicon and rare earth elements
last one is much needed raw material for Electronic industry and rechargeable battery like for Tesla cars.
This rare earth elements mining could be economical viable since the name hinge it extrem rare on earth,
While the Apollo 12 astronauts walked in that stuff in 1969

No.  Rare Earth metals aren't really that rare on Earth.  And they're not particularly abundant on the Moon.  Certainly it would be far, far cheaper to mine them here on our home planet than to mine them on the Moon, for far into the future.

And it's cheaper to send the LOX up from the Earth's surface to orbit than to generate it on the surface of the moon and then ship it up from there to where it's needed for a trip to Mars.

Mining is hard.  Really hard.  It's very labor-intensive.  It's very fluids-intensive.  It's very energy-intensive.  Lots of parts need lubrication and maintenance, and lots of things need cleaning and replacement.  And all the technology for mining, that we've developed over thousands of years, is all based on working in our atmosphere.

on Lunar Oxygen it depends were get it, with ice on lunar poles  would be easier, as extraction out regolith.
since Lox burn with everything it easy to use compress regolith  as propellant,
to get off dirt-side to earth orbit with aerodynamic capture.

On Rare Earth metals (REM) demands are higher as the resources
The situation is so that China stop export REM "because needed for own use"
while price of REM rise steady
The EU ensues unrealistic idea to salvage cubic kilometers electro junk to salvage some micro grams REM

On other hand we have the Moon, what give better alternative...
   

Offline philw1776

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #10 on: 01/07/2019 12:27 pm »
i guess that Elon Musk has great plans with the Moon

i think that will SpaceX install an Moon base for production of Liquid Oxygen and it's by-products
with access to lunar liquid Oxygen in Low earth orbit
would reduce the Tanker launches for Starliner only to liquid methane

The by-products would be metals like iron, titan. Silicon and rare earth elements
last one is much needed raw material for Electronic industry and rechargeable battery like for Tesla cars.
This rare earth elements mining could be economical viable since the name hinge it extrem rare on earth,
While the Apollo 12 astronauts walked in that stuff in 1969

Not going to happen for many reasons but one major reason is that the Starship under development requires too many tanker launches to get to the moon and then return payload X (in this case liquid oxygen) to LEO.  Cheaper and less flights to launch LOX from the Earth.
Yet another expensive & Mars diversionary in space custom lunar transport architecture could be less expensive once built, but SpaceX has a focus and it's on Mars.  The lunar surface base and mining would be another diversion of resources and expensive.

People forget that the biggest risk getting to Mars for SpaceX is not engineering but running short of money.  Musk is nowhere near Bezos cash rich.  Unclear if SpaceX will succeed because of this.  Opening 2 more money pits, a lunar transport architecture and a lunar mining base would exacerbate the situation.  Even if the US govt were to subsidize parts of this it is also a time diversion delaying Mars.  Elon is getting older. He can see the window of opportunity for Mars is finite.
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Offline Cinder

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #11 on: 01/07/2019 04:13 pm »
i guess that Elon Musk has great plans with the Moon

i think that will SpaceX install an Moon base for production of Liquid Oxygen and it's by-products
with access to lunar liquid Oxygen in Low earth orbit
would reduce the Tanker launches for Starliner only to liquid methane

The by-products would be metals like iron, titan. Silicon and rare earth elements
last one is much needed raw material for Electronic industry and rechargeable battery like for Tesla cars.
This rare earth elements mining could be economical viable since the name hinge it extrem rare on earth,
While the Apollo 12 astronauts walked in that stuff in 1969

No.  Rare Earth metals aren't really that rare on Earth.  And they're not particularly abundant on the Moon.  Certainly it would be far, far cheaper to mine them here on our home planet than to mine them on the Moon, for far into the future.

And it's cheaper to send the LOX up from the Earth's surface to orbit than to generate it on the surface of the moon and then ship it up from there to where it's needed for a trip to Mars.

Mining is hard.  Really hard.  It's very labor-intensive.  It's very fluids-intensive.  It's very energy-intensive.  Lots of parts need lubrication and maintenance, and lots of things need cleaning and replacement.  And all the technology for mining, that we've developed over thousands of years, is all based on working in our atmosphere.
Doesn't the comparison bubble burst on the order of 100s of years, if REEs can be sourced from lesser dV than either Earth or Moon?  Would be rhetorical but worth mention, unless pragmatically the Moon/cislunar/etc is then still the worse choice in processing those.

More like around the 100 year mark than <50 or >>100.

i guess that Elon Musk has great plans with the Moon

i think that will SpaceX install an Moon base for production of Liquid Oxygen and it's by-products
with access to lunar liquid Oxygen in Low earth orbit
would reduce the Tanker launches for Starliner only to liquid methane

The by-products would be metals like iron, titan. Silicon and rare earth elements
last one is much needed raw material for Electronic industry and rechargeable battery like for Tesla cars.
This rare earth elements mining could be economical viable since the name hinge it extrem rare on earth,
While the Apollo 12 astronauts walked in that stuff in 1969

Not going to happen for many reasons but one major reason is that the Starship under development requires too many tanker launches to get to the moon and then return payload X (in this case liquid oxygen) to LEO.  Cheaper and less flights to launch LOX from the Earth.
Yet another expensive & Mars diversionary in space custom lunar transport architecture could be less expensive once built, but SpaceX has a focus and it's on Mars.  The lunar surface base and mining would be another diversion of resources and expensive.

People forget that the biggest risk getting to Mars for SpaceX is not engineering but running short of money.  Musk is nowhere near Bezos cash rich.  Unclear if SpaceX will succeed because of this.  Opening 2 more money pits, a lunar transport architecture and a lunar mining base would exacerbate the situation.  Even if the US govt were to subsidize parts of this it is also a time diversion delaying Mars.  Elon is getting older. He can see the window of opportunity for Mars is finite.
Don't some of the more optimistic scenarios for Starlink, and what SpaceX have said re: lunar contracts, seem to leave a possibility for fairly substantial SpaceX-enabled activity?  On the Moon or near it.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2019 04:14 pm by Cinder »
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Offline Slarty1080

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #12 on: 01/07/2019 04:40 pm »
i guess that Elon Musk has great plans with the Moon

i think that will SpaceX install an Moon base for production of Liquid Oxygen and it's by-products
with access to lunar liquid Oxygen in Low earth orbit
would reduce the Tanker launches for Starliner only to liquid methane

The by-products would be metals like iron, titan. Silicon and rare earth elements
last one is much needed raw material for Electronic industry and rechargeable battery like for Tesla cars.
This rare earth elements mining could be economical viable since the name hinge it extrem rare on earth,
While the Apollo 12 astronauts walked in that stuff in 1969
I don't think that extracting oxygen from the Moon to supply propellants for Mars is even remotely viable. The only reason that NASA has been directed to go back to the Moon is that Mars is seen as too difficult and the SLS needs somewhere to go.

Mining and refining “rare” earth elements on the Moon is even less viable. It would have the advantage of removing a lot of toxic processing from the Surface of the Earth, but unfortunately that is about the only advantage.

Most of the cost in obtaining rare Earth elements comes from their refining and separation which consists of many complex steps involving a variety of chemical and physical processes which would be totally impractical on the Moon (such as froth floatation with a range of additives). The final concentration and refining the pure elements is even worse:
https://www.ameslab.gov/mpc/the-ames-process-rare-earth-metals
A complete non-starter on the Moon.
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)

Offline Slarty1080

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #13 on: 01/07/2019 05:01 pm »
Snip...
Don't some of the more optimistic scenarios for Starlink, and what SpaceX have said re: lunar contracts, seem to leave a possibility for fairly substantial SpaceX-enabled activity?  On the Moon or near it.
They might do. I would imagine that a lucrative NASA contract for some Moon based project might well be of interest to SpaceX both as a source of income and as a way of piggy backing some other projects such as testing out Starship systems on the way. Mind you the price would have to be right. SpaceX is not interested in the Moon it would just be a means to an end for them, unlike Mars which is an end in its own right.
My optimistic hope is that it will become cool to really think about things... rather than just doing reactive bullsh*t based on no knowledge (Brian Cox)

Offline Joffan

Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #14 on: 01/07/2019 06:19 pm »
Just some minor thoughts to add to this mass driver concept:
- I'm not convinced you need to dig a tunnel; running the launcher along the surface might work well enough, but..
- If tunnelling, you might as well dig obliquely so that the other end is also on the surface, about 20% of the way around the Moon...
- which could then potentially give you two launch directions.
- For powering the mass driver, I'd suggest that you need nuclear to keep it compact - a reactor at each end, perhaps.
- For this size of launcher, you would possibly run into governmental opposition due to the risk of hostile use. Note that a mass driver can potentially be "pointed" at Earth based on the energy imparted, giving an orbital solution that hits Earth. Anything from the region of Moon orbit, or beyond, arrives at Earth with huge kinetic energy.

The whole discussion is perhaps better pursued somewhere in Advanced Concepts (link) - the link to SpaceX is slight at best. This concept might intersect with SpaceX goals once they have a thriving Mars settlement and are looking to improve access and move to the next challenge - but not much before that.
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Offline philw1776

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #15 on: 01/07/2019 08:04 pm »
Snip...
Don't some of the more optimistic scenarios for Starlink, and what SpaceX have said re: lunar contracts, seem to leave a possibility for fairly substantial SpaceX-enabled activity?  On the Moon or near it.
They might do. I would imagine that a lucrative NASA contract for some Moon based project might well be of interest to SpaceX both as a source of income and as a way of piggy backing some other projects such as testing out Starship systems on the way. Mind you the price would have to be right. SpaceX is not interested in the Moon it would just be a means to an end for them, unlike Mars which is an end in its own right.

Yes
Using other people's money to do things that further the Mars goal without delaying it substantially would be a SpaceX style move.  NASA wants a lunar flyby, or a lunar landing and will pay$$$ WITHOUT IMPOSING NASA DESIGN REQUIREMENTS and SpaceX would most likely go for it using Starship(s).
Starlink revenue is years away.  SpaceX needs lots of cash to keep paying 7,000 not inexpensive employees and to keep building lots more cool stuff in the several years before Starlink is operational and revenue accrues.  That is the financial challenge.
« Last Edit: 01/07/2019 08:05 pm by philw1776 »
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Offline alexterrell

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #16 on: 01/07/2019 08:40 pm »
1/100 c is ~3000 km/s, and requires 4.5e9 MJ (or ~1 Megaton of TNT)  for a 1000 kg probe.  in fact a nuclear bomb might be the best way to get the required potential energy to the track on the moon. much more mass efficient than building power plants and running cables.

the bomb energy isn't very focused, though, unless you use the special bombs designed for project Orion.

In fact, do away with the track as well and just build project Orion.

Capacitors are the way to store energy for release over a second or so.

15Wh/kg = 54E3 J/kg = 83 million tons. A bit much.

Probably flywheels would work better over a few seconds.

Offline alexterrell

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #17 on: 01/07/2019 08:46 pm »
Nice idea and I think linear accelerators have potential.

However, it might be easier to put it in solar orbit, with a metal truss frame. Such a structure could be a tension structure and thousands of kilometers long. A constraint would be the coriolis force due to rotation around the sun, but this would be a lot less than a lunar accelerator.

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #18 on: 01/07/2019 08:58 pm »
i guess that Elon Musk has great plans with the Moon

i think that will SpaceX install an Moon base for production of Liquid Oxygen and it's by-products with access to lunar liquid Oxygen in Low earth orbit would reduce the Tanker launches for Starliner only to liquid methane ...

Not going to happen for many reasons but one major reason is that the Starship under development requires too many tanker launches to get to the moon and then return payload X (in this case liquid oxygen) to LEO.  Cheaper and less flights to launch LOX from the Earth.

Yet another expensive & Mars diversionary in space custom lunar transport architecture could be less expensive once built, but SpaceX has a focus and it's on Mars.  The lunar surface base and mining would be another diversion of resources and expensive.

SpaceX is a transportation company. If someone wants to pay them to use Starship to take cargo and people to the Moon then I expect they'll happily take the business!

Although I also have my doubts as to the economic utility of lunar ISRU lox to LEO, I think ISRU lox for use on the Moon itself is sensible. For breathing if nothing else, but it may well pay to refuel the Starship for its return flight.

Offline AC in NC

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Re: Elon and the moon
« Reply #19 on: 01/07/2019 11:32 pm »
Not saying if this is or is not possible any time soon, just hoping to get some feedback.  Everyone I talk to about it thinks I'm crazy.

The issue is that you are investing an enormous amount of time and resources to create a relatively constrained launch vector to achieve 58k mph.  Far better to leverage reusability to create a fuel-rich distributed eco-system of infrastructure building out through the inner Solar System and beyond.

 

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