Author Topic: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid  (Read 65524 times)

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #20 on: 01/04/2013 05:59 am »
The proposed P7C design in really interesting.  It seems to have come out of the woodwork in recent months.  Two basic propulsion units combined in different ways to create a family of launchers that could be somewhat optimized to the payload.  The solids would be cutting edge - better than any other solid produced anywhere on earth.  The upper stage would be the world's most efficient upper stage, hands down. 

Could this be a Falcon killer?

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 01/04/2013 06:03 am by edkyle99 »

Offline Rugoz

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #21 on: 01/04/2013 09:37 am »
Quote
I've brought this up as example of what will happen if you "keep technology" without improving it. US is literally paying quite a price for that oversight, and Europe doesn't want to learn from other's mistakes by making their own. But honestly I don't think they've chosen solids because they didn't realize how stupid this decision is

They've chosen solids because a) the military likes them and b) because maybe solids aren't a bad option after all. Everybody keeps saying kerolox is so much cheaper than solids without providing any numbers.

The hatred for solids seems to come from the fact that reusability is ruled out from the start. I agree this sucks.

To my knowledge solids are not low tech, to the contrary, so I wouldn't say its just keeping tech instead of improving it.

Quote
Could this be a Falcon killer?

70m per launch doesn't sound like a falcon killer, but it may at least be competitive, on condition that spacex must bury its reusability plans.
« Last Edit: 01/04/2013 09:38 am by Rugoz »

Offline IRobot

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #22 on: 01/04/2013 11:03 am »
My hate for solids is due to the inability to do engine cut off.

Offline mmeijeri

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #23 on: 01/04/2013 11:11 am »
That's not important for Ariane's official mission, which is to provide assured access to space for institutional payloads.
Pro-tip: you don't have to be a jerk if someone doesn't agree with your theories

Offline Hauerg

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #24 on: 01/04/2013 11:29 am »
In the aftermath of the conference voices of ESA officials could be heard that a decision towards an all solid Ariane 6 (except for the cryogenic upper stage) is already made.
"Liberty" (of a sort) lives.  ;)

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No Vulcain, no Liberty.

Offline aquanaut99

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #25 on: 01/04/2013 12:07 pm »
My hate for solids is due to the inability to do engine cut off.

My dislike stems more from the fact that solids are inefficient and enviro-unfriendly (strange to see the otherwise green-minded Europeans, especially the Germans, agreeing to this; my guess is the French military-industrial complex must have pressured really hard).

The inability to cut off, while bad, is less of a deal for Ariane-6, since no astronaut will ever fly on it and it will never be man-rated. I do agree, however, that, for a rocket that is to fly people, lack of cut-off should be an absolute no-go. And, yes, that means that we should never have flown people on Shuttle for 30 years and that SLS is a bad idea. I have said so before and will say so again: solids are not for manned spaceflight!

All in all, I am very disappointed that Europe will, most likely, chose this design. IMO it is the worst of the proposals and will cause them to lose all they have accomplished so far.
« Last Edit: 01/04/2013 12:09 pm by aquanaut99 »

Offline Rugoz

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #26 on: 01/04/2013 12:17 pm »
Hey found a movie :)

« Last Edit: 01/04/2013 12:17 pm by Rugoz »

Offline tobi453

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #27 on: 01/04/2013 12:58 pm »
Germany and idustry wanted the Ariane 5 ME and they got what they wanted. France wanted the A6 and gave in. Thats the reason germany and industry can't speak up against the A6, at least not for the next several months and after that it could be too late. The only realistic option to stop this mess now is by germany denying money in 2014 at the next ministerial council. Italy and France are perfectly fine with this concept.

Many commentators interpreted the results of the ministerial council that germany won the Ariane argument by getting ME. Maybe this assessment was false.

Here are some reason why this concept is bad:
1. First stage liquid propulsion knowledge will be lost
2. Europe gives up on reusability for the next 50 years, because of 1.
3. Europe gives up on manned spaceflight. Currently manned spaceflight is not a priority in Europe but someday the debt crisis will hopefully by over and if the rocket could be easily modified for manned spaceflight like Atlas 5 there could be a chance. With this solid concept there is no chance at all
4. The rocket has no growth potential
5. The Ariane review determined that the rocket can only be cheaper if the industrial structure is fundamentally changed. I don't see this happening here, I don't think the cost target of 70 M Euros can be met. Dordain had the right idea with NELS (New european launch service) but that seems far away now. I wonder whether ESA will ever release some results of the studies going on at the moment
6. Solid is a dead end in the long term, the whole exercise is a waste of money. The money should instead be spent on something with a future: CH4/LOX or something similar
7. No perspective for the young people in Europe interested in space transportation. In 50 years europe will still be doing the same as today: stagnation.

I could entirely be possible that SpaceX will take the leading position from Arianespace in lets say the next 10 years due to its excellent strategic management.
« Last Edit: 01/04/2013 01:02 pm by tobi453 »

Offline Rugoz

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #28 on: 01/04/2013 01:11 pm »

^

Oh come on now you're being ridiculous. For reusability a new engine would have to be developed from scratch anyway.

If they build skylon and this I will be more than satisfied  ;)

Offline IRobot

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #29 on: 01/04/2013 01:37 pm »
My dislike stems more from the fact that solids are inefficient and enviro-unfriendly (strange to see the otherwise green-minded Europeans, especially the Germans, agreeing to this;
German people are environment friendly. Their industry is not. They are the #5 consumer of coal in the world.

Offline Rugoz

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #30 on: 01/04/2013 02:27 pm »

By the way when we talk about solids, maybe it would make sense to make them reusable. After all they're stable enough such that you only have to attach a parachute to it and let them drop in the ocean.

Offline apace

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #31 on: 01/04/2013 02:29 pm »
By the way when we talk about solids, maybe it would make sense to make them reusable. After all they're stable enough such that you only have to attach a parachute to it and let them drop in the ocean.

Always had the idea, that reusable solids are same expensive as new solids...
« Last Edit: 01/04/2013 02:29 pm by apace »

Offline woods170

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #32 on: 01/04/2013 02:34 pm »
To me the case is clear: A solid Ariane 6 is a dead end! The next European launcher should be an all cryogenic, two stage concept without strap-on-boosters.

What do you think?

Spacediver

Spacediver, I'm from germany and you are absolutely right. I dont know what CNES is thinking, but this is the end of european space transportation.

I am astonished that no public figure of the european spaceflight community has named this concept what it is - rubbish.

This spacenews article makes it pretty clear that the solid concept has been selected:
http://www.spacenews.com/article/cnes-sets-%E2%80%9Ctriple-seven%E2%80%9D-goal-for-ariane-6-rocket


Quote
The design of the rocket — two solid-fueled lower stages and a cryogenic upper stage, plus solid-fueled strap-on boosters — was frozen Nov. 21 during a meeting of ESA government ministers.ESA Launcher Director Antonio Fabrizi said this design, and no other, is what ministers approved.


I disagree. This design is not rubbish, not from a political viewpoint. And all of you should remember that ESA decisions for new launchers are more based on political arguments than technical aspects.
Like the United States there has never been doubt inside the ESA political echelons about the use of solids, even on vehicles that were supposed to be flown manned. Ariane-5 was, after all, initially designed as the launch vehicle for the crewed Hermes space shuttle.
With the US space shuttle now gone the two biggest solid boosters on the planet fly on every Ariane-5 mission. From a political viewpoint it is clear as glass: the Ariane solids (never mind the difference between the ones used on Ariane-2, Ariane-4 or Ariane-5) have never given any trouble on any of the launches involved. The liquid technology however has given trouble, on a number of launches.
From the viewpoint of a technically ill-informed politician it is clear: solid technology on European launchers is more reliable than liquid technology. And that "fact" was heavily pushed by CNES.

The ESA politicians also recognize the fact that the current Vulcain technology is a dead-end. You don't go anywhere if you don't develop a new, more powerfull, more reliable, more economic hydrolox engine. That costs big money. And don't forget the role of Vega. The Italians, along with the French have set the stage for very advanced solids technology thru the development of Vega. Developing the first two stages for Ariane-6 will be the next logical step coming forth from the Vega development program.

Offline woods170

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #33 on: 01/04/2013 02:36 pm »
By the way when we talk about solids, maybe it would make sense to make them reusable. After all they're stable enough such that you only have to attach a parachute to it and let them drop in the ocean.

Always had the idea, that reusable solids are same expensive as new solids...
Correct, if the flight-rate is low enough. That's why Ariane-5 has disposable solids.
The sole reason why on a few Ariane-5 flights the solids were recovered (by means of parachute) was post-flight inspection to validate the design.

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #34 on: 01/04/2013 02:37 pm »
With this solid concept there is no chance at all
4. The rocket has no growth potential
I disagree, respectfully. 

The performance of an all-liquid rocket would grow by increasing first stage engine thrust, second stage specific impulse, and stretching all of the tanks. 

A solid-liquid rocket would be able to grow in the same way.  The first stages could be stretched to increase thrust, the propellant formulation could be improved, and/or the dry mass could be shaved.  Nozzles could be redesigned to improve specific impulse, and so on.  The second stage could be improved in the same way as for the all-liquid rocket.

 - Ed Kyle

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #35 on: 01/04/2013 02:45 pm »
My dislike stems more from the fact that solids are inefficient and enviro-unfriendly.
The new all-solid Ariane 6 designs would burn less solid propellant per launch than Ariane 5.  The ability to tailor the launch vehicle to the payload should mean less solid burned overall, over time, compared to Ariane 5.  Finally, the more efficient solids should reduce propellant mass burn requirements.

 - Ed Kyle
« Last Edit: 01/04/2013 02:45 pm by edkyle99 »

Offline asmi

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #36 on: 01/04/2013 03:47 pm »
Like the United States there has never been doubt inside the ESA political echelons about the use of solids, even on vehicles that were supposed to be flown manned. Ariane-5 was, after all, initially designed as the launch vehicle for the crewed Hermes space shuttle.
There is a huge difference between combined solid-liquid rocket and all-solid rocket. Latter can not be used for manned flight because for that you need throttling and early cut-off capability, and it's not possible with solids.  That is exact reason why first phase of Shuttle flight didn't have abort capability. So going all-solid == no manned missions now (and quite possibly never).
With the US space shuttle now gone the two biggest solid boosters on the planet fly on every Ariane-5 mission. From a political viewpoint it is clear as glass: the Ariane solids (never mind the difference between the ones used on Ariane-2, Ariane-4 or Ariane-5) have never given any trouble on any of the launches involved. The liquid technology however has given trouble, on a number of launches.
From the viewpoint of a technically ill-informed politician it is clear: solid technology on European launchers is more reliable than liquid technology. And that "fact" was heavily pushed by CNES.
Are you comparing few dozens of launches with 2000+ launches done by liquid rockets? Sorry, but you can't say solids are more reliable unless you've got comparable number of flights, now liquids win this race hands down.

The ESA politicians also recognize the fact that the current Vulcain technology is a dead-end. You don't go anywhere if you don't develop a new, more powerfull, more reliable, more economic hydrolox engine. That costs big money. And don't forget the role of Vega. The Italians, along with the French have set the stage for very advanced solids technology thru the development of Vega. Developing the first two stages for Ariane-6 will be the next logical step coming forth from the Vega development program.
That is their investment in the future. As much as you'd like to think otherwise, solid is a dead-end technology. There is only so much one can do to improve it, and there are quite a number of issues which appears to be non-solvable - ISP of solids is rather low (so fuel fraction is bigger, and overall performance is worse for given liftoff mass), cross-feed and refueling are both impossible, reusability is also very questionable.
Liquids, on the other hand, offer a lot of possibilities, and area of possible improvements is vast. If Europeans doesn't like paying Russia for RD-180 or some other kerolox engine, they can license it and build it inside Europe, sure this would be quite an investment, but after european scientists and engineers learn how RD-engines family are built and work, they can improve on top of this baseline instead of starting from scratch.

So I stand by my point that they've picked the worst possible option.

Offline tobi453

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #37 on: 01/04/2013 03:59 pm »
Ed, of course you are right. I should have said limited growth potential. If you look at Ariane 5 Europe managed to almost double the performance from the initial version (Ariane 5 G) 6->12 tonnes (ME). I don't think this is feasible with this concept. With a liquid concept you could develop a heavy variant (like Delta IV, Falcon).

@woods170: I completely agree, politics is a very important in Europe and because of that the rocket is not going to be competitive without subsidies. The politicians are deceiving themselves when they think that this is going to work with a strict GEO return policy.

As for technology: Liquid propulsion would of course also require a major development effort (maybe LH2 staged combustion, Methane or something else), but it would not be wasted money in the long term. It all comes down to the question whether you think reusability is going to work out or not.  If we give up the knowhow on liquid first stage propulsion it will be very difficult to catch up again once someone develops a (partial) reusable system.

Offline IanO

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #38 on: 01/04/2013 05:40 pm »
The proposed P7C design in really interesting.  It seems to have come out of the woodwork in recent months.  Two basic propulsion units combined in different ways to create a family of launchers that could be somewhat optimized to the payload.  The solids would be cutting edge - better than any other solid produced anywhere on earth.  The upper stage would be the world's most efficient upper stage, hands down. 

Could this be a Falcon killer?

 - Ed Kyle
It looks like the proposed LAPAN RPS-420 microsat launch architecture (3xsolid / 1xsolid / then uppers), but of course hugely scaled up!
psas.pdx.edu

Offline Rugoz

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Re: Ariane 6: solid vs. liquid
« Reply #39 on: 01/04/2013 06:39 pm »
Quote from: asmi
Are you comparing few dozens of launches with 2000+ launches done by liquid rockets? Sorry, but you can't say solids are more reliable unless you've got comparable number of flights, now liquids win this race hands down.

Obviously he's talking about the Ariane 5 program. Also solid rockets probably have been used like a billion times, not the same size but still.

Quote from: asmi
As much as you'd like to think otherwise, solid is a dead-end technology. There is only so much one can do to improve it, and there are quite a number of issues which appears to be non-solvable - ISP of solids is rather low (so fuel fraction is bigger, and overall performance is worse for given liftoff mass), cross-feed and refueling are both impossible, reusability is also very questionable.
Liquids, on the other hand, offer a lot of possibilities, and area of possible improvements is vast.

Solids have improved quite a lot, at least when it comes to weight. The ISP of solids is rather low, but so is the ISP of kerolox. Liquids offer more possibilities, but that doesn't necessarily make the more economical.

Still I agree that reusability is not an option with solids, but do we know how reusability will look like? If it will be something along the lines of skylon there is no point in starting another high thrust engine program now. In fact in such a case going with solids is reasonable because it satisfies potential military needs which a reusable launcher can't.

Quote from: tobi453
Ed, of course you are right. I should have said limited growth potential. If you look at Ariane 5 Europe managed to almost double the performance from the initial version (Ariane 5 G) 6->12 tonnes (ME). I don't think this is feasible with this concept. With a liquid concept you could develop a heavy variant (like Delta IV, Falcon).

Actually improvements to the EAP (boosters), EPC (first stage) and EPS (upper stage) all added approximately the same to GTO performance.


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