Author Topic: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6  (Read 356104 times)

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1060 on: 11/27/2023 03:45 pm »
The main reason I'm so interested is that Boeing no longer has any credibility, at least for me.
X-37, ISS, WGS, O3b mPOWER, etc
It's subjective. I did not get actively (i.e., obsessively) interested in space until about 2020, although I was always more interested than the average nerd and was in the IP-over-satellite industry starting in 2004. I always thought of Boeing as THE premiere aerospace company. My current totally subjective feelings come from the Starliner schedule, the 737 MAX, and the 777 delays. In 2014 I would have agreed with NASA that Starliner was the best choice for CCP. To my (subjective) mind, X-37, ISS, and WGS all came from the old reliable Seattle Engineering Boeing, and not the Chicago MBA Boeing or the Arlington lawyer Boeing.

Offline Jim

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1061 on: 11/27/2023 05:04 pm »
To my (subjective) mind, X-37, ISS, and WGS all came from the old reliable Seattle Engineering Boeing, and not the Chicago MBA Boeing or the Arlington lawyer Boeing.

McDonnell Douglas and Hughes lines.  Heritage Boeing did vary little in space in the 80's -90's.  Just IUS, ISS modules (which is lost a bunch to others - HAB, Node and MPLM) and FIA which got cancelled.  It's when Boeing took over Hughes, Rockwell, and MDC did the product lines of those former companies start declining. 



https://www.avitas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Pilarski-says-Sept-Oct-2019-Fake-news-or-MDC-as-source-of-Boeings-problems.pdf

Offline joek

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1062 on: 11/27/2023 05:21 pm »
X-37, ISS, WGS, O3b mPOWER, etc

Might be worth an exercise comparing those successful Boeing efforts (as you list) with the less successful (e.g., CST-100) based on various attributes-criteria. (Would do so but don't have time.) Boeing as much as admitted that CCP has been a failure due to its challenges with fixed priced contracts in several programs (among others).

So instead of debating and harping on "X succeeded", "Y failed", maybe a more constructive conversation would be Why?

Offline Jim

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1063 on: 11/27/2023 05:42 pm »
X-37, ISS, WGS, O3b mPOWER, etc

Might be worth an exercise comparing those successful Boeing efforts (as you list) with the less successful (e.g., CST-100) based on various attributes-criteria. (Would do so but don't have time.) Boeing as much as admitted that CCP has been a failure due to its challenges with fixed priced contracts in several programs (among others).

So instead of debating and harping on "X succeeded", "Y failed", maybe a more constructive conversation would be Why?

Not due to the MDC "merger" according to the source I posted.

Offline joek

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1064 on: 11/27/2023 05:55 pm »
Not due to the MDC "merger" according to the source I posted.

Sorry, not getting what that has do with this... that merger is long past. It's now just Boeing.
What makes some Boeing efforts successful and others not?
A first order analysis suggests that Boeing has trouble with fixed priced contracts (by their own words).
Do you agree with that? If not, why?

Online Lee Jay

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1065 on: 11/27/2023 06:20 pm »
What makes some Boeing efforts successful and others not?

I have zero inside information and I know the answer to that - the people who work on them, including management and whomever else puts processes into place.

Offline joek

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1066 on: 11/27/2023 06:41 pm »
I have zero inside information and I know the answer to that - the people who work on them, including management and whomever else puts processes into place.

A generic answer which does not tell us anything. An answer based on specific programs, their attributes, and outcomes would be a more constructive and useful response.

Online Lee Jay

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1067 on: 11/27/2023 08:34 pm »
I have zero inside information and I know the answer to that - the people who work on them, including management and whomever else puts processes into place.

A generic answer which does not tell us anything. An answer based on specific programs, their attributes, and outcomes would be a more constructive and useful response.

But one that, I suspect, doesn't exist.  At least in my experience, success has very little to do with the program type or these other attributes and everything to do with the specific people doing the project.

Offline cohberg

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1068 on: 11/28/2023 02:20 pm »
TSA investigates the cause of that crash. That aircraft continues to fly, with people on board, while the TSA does its job wrt that one crash.

Nit: TSA ≠ FAA / NTSB

TSA being in charge of aircraft accident investigations in its current capacity would be a circus.

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1069 on: 11/28/2023 06:10 pm »
Moderator:
Thread trim.
Support your local planetarium! (COVID-panic and forward: Now more than ever.) My current avatar is saying "i wants to go uppies!" Yes, there are God-given rights. Do you wish to gainsay the Declaration of Independence?

Offline clongton

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1070 on: 11/29/2023 01:55 pm »
TSA investigates the cause of that crash. That aircraft continues to fly, with people on board, while the TSA does its job wrt that one crash.

Nit: TSA ≠ FAA / NTSB

TSA being in charge of aircraft accident investigations in its current capacity would be a circus.

Agreed. Thank you.
« Last Edit: 11/29/2023 01:58 pm by clongton »
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Online yg1968

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1071 on: 12/02/2023 09:37 pm »
A better debate would have been: what happens to Starliner after the 6 post-certification missions. That's anybody's guess. It seems that Boeing is not willing to incur any more losses on Starliner. So I think that Boeing will want to get paid through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider for certifying Starliner with a new LV. Fortunately, Sierra Space and Blue have shown interest in pursuing commercial crew through unfunded contracts but at some point, they will also want to get paid for certifying their spacecrafts.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1072 on: 12/02/2023 10:20 pm »
A better debate would have been: what happens to Starliner after the 6 post-certification missions. That's anybody's guess. It seems that Boeing is not willing to incur any more losses on Starliner. So I think that Boeing will want to get paid through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider for certifying Starliner with a new LV. Fortunately, Sierra Space and Blue have shown interest in pursuing commercial crew through unfunded contracts but at some point, they will also want to get paid for certifying their spacecrafts.
Unless NASA doubles up the missions, the last Starliner CCP mission is in 2030. Plenty of time to figure out if there is a market before they need to certify, presumably on Vulcan Centaur. The big unknown (for me) is what the market will look like when/if crewed EDL Starship is flying.

Online yg1968

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1073 on: 12/02/2023 11:26 pm »
A better debate would have been: what happens to Starliner after the 6 post-certification missions. That's anybody's guess. It seems that Boeing is not willing to incur any more losses on Starliner. So I think that Boeing will want to get paid through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider for certifying Starliner with a new LV. Fortunately, Sierra Space and Blue have shown interest in pursuing commercial crew through unfunded contracts but at some point, they will also want to get paid for certifying their spacecrafts.
Unless NASA doubles up the missions, the last Starliner CCP mission is in 2030. Plenty of time to figure out if there is a market before they need to certify, presumably on Vulcan Centaur. The big unknown (for me) is what the market will look like when/if crewed EDL Starship is flying.

All new systems including Starliner on a different LV will need to be certified as commercial crew transportation systems. However, it would have to be done through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider. If SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS). It seems that SpaceX wants to offer Dragon at first but that they will eventually offer Starship (presumably a commercial crew variant of Starship). See this link for more on this:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2543214#msg2543214 

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1074 on: 12/02/2023 11:54 pm »
A better debate would have been: what happens to Starliner after the 6 post-certification missions. That's anybody's guess. It seems that Boeing is not willing to incur any more losses on Starliner. So I think that Boeing will want to get paid through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider for certifying Starliner with a new LV. Fortunately, Sierra Space and Blue have shown interest in pursuing commercial crew through unfunded contracts but at some point, they will also want to get paid for certifying their spacecrafts.
Unless NASA doubles up the missions, the last Starliner CCP mission is in 2030. Plenty of time to figure out if there is a market before they need to certify, presumably on Vulcan Centaur. The big unknown (for me) is what the market will look like when/if crewed EDL Starship is flying.

All new systems including Starliner on a different LV will need to be certified as commercial crew transportation systems. However, it would have to be done through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider. If SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS). It seems that SpaceX wants to offer Dragon at first but that they will eventually offer Starship (presumably a commercial crew variant of Starship). See this link for more on this:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2543214#msg2543214
OK, but if SpaceX decides to fly a Starship CLD variant as that post says, then presumably they are are the "CLD provider" that needs to make sure they have CCP-certified crew transportation. Why would SpaceX want to pay for Boeing's certification? SpaceX already has a certified CCP provider. Maybe Boeing's LV provider would be willing to pay for the certification. I think Crewed Starship EDL would need to be CCP-certified before it can carry NASA astronauts. Does it need to be CCP-certified if it is not carrying NASA astronauts?

Offline Ben Baley

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1075 on: 12/03/2023 01:29 am »
A better debate would have been: what happens to Starliner after the 6 post-certification missions. That's anybody's guess. It seems that Boeing is not willing to incur any more losses on Starliner. So I think that Boeing will want to get paid through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider for certifying Starliner with a new LV. Fortunately, Sierra Space and Blue have shown interest in pursuing commercial crew through unfunded contracts but at some point, they will also want to get paid for certifying their spacecrafts.
Unless NASA doubles up the missions, the last Starliner CCP mission is in 2030. Plenty of time to figure out if there is a market before they need to certify, presumably on Vulcan Centaur. The big unknown (for me) is what the market will look like when/if crewed EDL Starship is flying.

All new systems including Starliner on a different LV will need to be certified as commercial crew transportation systems. However, it would have to be done through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider. If SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS). It seems that SpaceX wants to offer Dragon at first but that they will eventually offer Starship (presumably a commercial crew variant of Starship). See this link for more on this:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2543214#msg2543214
OK, but if SpaceX decides to fly a Starship CLD variant as that post says, then presumably they are are the "CLD provider" that needs to make sure they have CCP-certified crew transportation. Why would SpaceX want to pay for Boeing's certification? SpaceX already has a certified CCP provider. Maybe Boeing's LV provider would be willing to pay for the certification. I think Crewed Starship EDL would need to be CCP-certified before it can carry NASA astronauts. Does it need to be CCP-certified if it is not carrying NASA astronauts?

I'm pretty sure that currently they would be able to fly non NASA astronauts under the informed consent regime, that may change once the moratorium on the FAA developing commercial spaceflight rules ends.

That moratorium was recently extended to January 1 2024, and is likely to be extended farther, https://spacenews.com/faa-anticipates-extension-of-commercial-spaceflight-regulatory-learning-period/ ,but that may well change by the time a CLD is operational.

Online yg1968

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1076 on: 12/03/2023 01:57 am »
A better debate would have been: what happens to Starliner after the 6 post-certification missions. That's anybody's guess. It seems that Boeing is not willing to incur any more losses on Starliner. So I think that Boeing will want to get paid through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider for certifying Starliner with a new LV. Fortunately, Sierra Space and Blue have shown interest in pursuing commercial crew through unfunded contracts but at some point, they will also want to get paid for certifying their spacecrafts.
Unless NASA doubles up the missions, the last Starliner CCP mission is in 2030. Plenty of time to figure out if there is a market before they need to certify, presumably on Vulcan Centaur. The big unknown (for me) is what the market will look like when/if crewed EDL Starship is flying.

All new systems including Starliner on a different LV will need to be certified as commercial crew transportation systems. However, it would have to be done through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider. If SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS). It seems that SpaceX wants to offer Dragon at first but that they will eventually offer Starship (presumably a commercial crew variant of Starship). See this link for more on this:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2543214#msg2543214
OK, but if SpaceX decides to fly a Starship CLD variant as that post says, then presumably they are are the "CLD provider" that needs to make sure they have CCP-certified crew transportation. Why would SpaceX want to pay for Boeing's certification? SpaceX already has a certified CCP provider. Maybe Boeing's LV provider would be willing to pay for the certification. I think Crewed Starship EDL would need to be CCP-certified before it can carry NASA astronauts. Does it need to be CCP-certified if it is not carrying NASA astronauts?

I didn't say that SpaceX would pay for Boeing's certification. Presumably, Boeing would be a subcontractor of Orbital Reef under their CLD proposal and that is how they would get paid. SpaceX would be a subcontractor of Axiom for their CLD proposal and that is how they would get paid, etc. I imagine that each CLD provider will provide various options to NASA and it will be up to NASA to decide if they wish to exercise these options.

As noted in the post above, private astronauts do need to fly on NASA certified commercial crew systems.
« Last Edit: 12/03/2023 02:03 am by yg1968 »

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1077 on: 12/03/2023 02:20 am »
A better debate would have been: what happens to Starliner after the 6 post-certification missions. That's anybody's guess. It seems that Boeing is not willing to incur any more losses on Starliner. So I think that Boeing will want to get paid through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider for certifying Starliner with a new LV. Fortunately, Sierra Space and Blue have shown interest in pursuing commercial crew through unfunded contracts but at some point, they will also want to get paid for certifying their spacecrafts.
Unless NASA doubles up the missions, the last Starliner CCP mission is in 2030. Plenty of time to figure out if there is a market before they need to certify, presumably on Vulcan Centaur. The big unknown (for me) is what the market will look like when/if crewed EDL Starship is flying.

All new systems including Starliner on a different LV will need to be certified as commercial crew transportation systems. However, it would have to be done through a Commercial LEO Destinations provider. If SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS). It seems that SpaceX wants to offer Dragon at first but that they will eventually offer Starship (presumably a commercial crew variant of Starship). See this link for more on this:

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=53450.msg2543214#msg2543214
OK, but if SpaceX decides to fly a Starship CLD variant as that post says, then presumably they are are the "CLD provider" that needs to make sure they have CCP-certified crew transportation. Why would SpaceX want to pay for Boeing's certification? SpaceX already has a certified CCP provider. Maybe Boeing's LV provider would be willing to pay for the certification. I think Crewed Starship EDL would need to be CCP-certified before it can carry NASA astronauts. Does it need to be CCP-certified if it is not carrying NASA astronauts?

I didn't say that SpaceX would pay for Boeing's certification. Presumably, Boeing would be a subcontractor of Orbital Reef under their CLD proposal and that is how they would get paid. SpaceX would be a subcontractor of Axiom for their CLD proposal and that is how they would get paid, etc. I imagine that each CLD provider will provide various options to NASA and it will be up to NASA to decide if they wish to exercise these options.

As noted in the post above, private astronauts do need to fly on NASA certified commercial crew systems.
That works for the Orbital Reef and Axiom proposals. It does not work for the Starship CLD proposal in the ref of the post you provided and that I repeat here:
   https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/cldp-heo-nac-11-20-23.pdf
where on slide 13 it refers to the SAA with SpaceX as follows:
Quote
SpaceX Starship as a CLD (first with Dragon
for crew and cargo, later as crewed sortiable
CLD). Related Dragon and Starlink upgrades.
If this ends up being the CLD, then SpaceX will not pay to have Starliner certified as a alternate CCP provider. So for missions beyond Starliner-6, Boeing needs for Orbital Reef to succeed, probably before SpaceX gets around to flying Starship CLD if that ever happens. From my spot out here in the peanut gallery, Starship CLD looks more likely to fly than Orbital Reef.

Offline clongton

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1078 on: 12/03/2023 12:55 pm »
If SpaceX wants to offer Starship as a commercial crew transportation system, they can but it would have to be adapted in order to meet the commercial crew requirements (including a LAS).

I agree that Starship will need to be certified for crewed flight but that will not include adding a LAS. Starships own engines already are the LAS. That is far, far safer than Shuttle, which flew 135 times with no LAS of any kind. As was tragically demonstrated by Challenger, it was not possible for Shuttle to abort the failing launch vehicle because the spacecraft itself was the launch vehicle. Not so for Starship, which can abort a failing Super Heavy launch vehicle using its own engines.

With regard to Starliner's future on the other hand, I personally don't think it will continue beyond the current program. Modifying and then certifying an existing launch vehicle to carry crew is extremely expensive and time consuming. ULA is not interested in incurring that kind of effort and expense for Vulcan and Boeing is not going to want to pay for that either. I believe Starliner is done after its six contracted flights. Boeing will cut its losses and walk away from the Starliner. Remember, Boeing is not a privately owned company. It is a corporation owned by shareholders. Failure to make a handsome profit will get an entire board of directors fired. Starliner is not going to be profitable enough to meet that bar. Members of the board of directors are not guided by aspirations. They are guided by profit and loss statements. The only way I can see that happening is if NASA picks up the entire tab to make the necessary modifications and certifications for Vulcan. I might be wrong, but I just don't see that happening. It would violate everything that Commercial Crew supposedly stands for.
« Last Edit: 12/03/2023 01:12 pm by clongton »
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Boeing's Starliner (CST-100) - Discussion Thread 6
« Reply #1079 on: 12/03/2023 01:37 pm »
With regard to Starliner's future on the other hand, I personally don't think it will continue beyond the current program. Modifying and then certifying an existing launch vehicle to carry crew is extremely expensive and time consuming. ULA is not interested in incurring that kind of effort and expense for Vulcan and Boeing is not going to want to pay for that either.
Do we actually know this? I thought ULA had stated that the Vulcan Centaur design was intended to be crew-rated from the start, and I think that Vulcan Centaur has interface commonalities with Atlas V. If so, there would be very little actual modification, just a lot of paperwork. Vulcan is supposed to start flying "real soon now", and should accumulate some decent flight experience fairly quickly, while all other potential LVs for Starliner (except Falcon 9) are a year or more behind, and would all fit your description.

F9 is a good technical fit, but would not provide launcher redundancy, and F9 would theoretically be retiring at about the time Starliner would need it.

 

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