Author Topic: Eastern Range updates ‘Drive to 48’ launches per year status  (Read 14212 times)

Offline edzieba

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A plane is not that slow, how long does it even take a jet to cross the complete zone?
How long does a plane in trouble take to vacate the zone from any location and altitude from within or around the zone? With the added constraints on speed, ascent and descent rates, heading relative to wind, etc, that an incident may impose?
That zone is about 50km from west to east, an aircraft entering a zone at the last possible moment to exit it at the start of exclusion (because commercial airlines are well known for prioritising fuel consumption optimisation over safety, e.g. on numerous occasions flying over active warzones with live AA) and immediately encountering difficulty necessitating a turnaround and return to MCO would result in an airspace violation even if no deceleration was required.

Since there are already the permeant restrictions over KSC and CCSFS to work around, the newly cleared northern corridor for MCO gives a reliable route without the temptation of dancing through launch TFRs becoming the norm.
« Last Edit: 06/21/2023 02:33 pm by edzieba »

Offline mn

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A plane is not that slow, how long does it even take a jet to cross the complete zone?
How long does a plane in trouble take to vacate the zone from any location and altitude from within or around the zone? With the added constraints on speed, ascent and descent rates, heading relative to wind, etc, that an incident may impose?
That zone is about 50km from west to east, an aircraft entering a zone at the last possible moment to exit it at the start of exclusion (because commercial airlines are well known for prioritising fuel consumption optimisation over safety, e.g. on numerous occasions flying over active warzones with live AA) and immediately encountering difficulty necessitating a turnaround and return to MCO would result in an airspace violation even if no deceleration was required.

Since there already the permeant restrictions over KSC and CCSFS to work around, the newly cleared northern corridor for MCO gives a reliable route without the temptation of dancing through launch TFRs becoming the norm.

So in your hypothetical worst case scenario there will be a scrub, still well worth it for the remaining 99.99% of the time.

Offline mn

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FAA reduces airspace restrictions for Cape Canaveral launches

https://spacenews.com/faa-reduces-airspace-restrictions-for-cape-canaveral-launches/

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A separate effort is the Space Data Integrator (SDI), a tool to automate the distribution of data from launches and reentries to air traffic controllers, enabling more dynamic management of airspace and reducing the size and duration of airspace closures.

Freer said at the COMSTAC meeting that full integration of launch and reentry data into air traffic management systems won’t be completed until 2028...
« Last Edit: 06/21/2023 01:29 pm by mn »

Online Targeteer

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NetCentric Technology LLC, Neptune, New Jersey, was awarded a $262,444,763 indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contract, with a ceiling of $489,000,000, for Cape launch operations and infrastructure support. This contract provides non-personal services in support of mission requirements for vehicle launches, range operations, port operations, and the overall Space Launch Delta 45 mission. Work will be performed at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station, Florida, and is expected to be completed by Nov. 30, 2032.  This contract was a competitive acquisition and six offers were received. Fiscal 2023 operation and maintenance funds in the amount of $5,000 are being obligated at time of award. 45th Contracting Squadron, Patrick Space Force Base, Florida, is the contracting activity (FA2521-23-D-0004).
Best quote heard during an inspection, "I was unaware that I was the only one who was aware."

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1729516137321242944

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SpaceX's Starlink mission last night was the 66th launch of the year from Florida's Space Coast. The previous record was 57 last year.

Janet Petro, KSC director, said more than 100 launches are planned over the next 12 months. NASA projects almost 225 launches per year by 2030.

Online DanClemmensen

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SpaceX's Starlink mission last night was the 66th launch of the year from Florida's Space Coast. The previous record was 57 last year.

Janet Petro, KSC director, said more than 100 launches are planned over the next 12 months. NASA projects almost 225 launches per year by 2030.
I wonder where the got that "225" number? The current rate is driven by Starlink. By 2030, That constellation will have stabilized, probably at about 40,000 satellites. If the average lifetime is 5 years, they will need 8000 new satellites/yr, and with Starship and a conservative payload of 80 satellites/launch, That's 100 launches/yr, and about a third of them will be from Vandenberg.  So, where are the other 160 launches/yr coming from? More likely, the non-Starlink number will maybe double from this year's 30 or so.

Online ehb

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SpaceX's Starlink mission last night was the 66th launch of the year from Florida's Space Coast. The previous record was 57 last year.

Janet Petro, KSC director, said more than 100 launches are planned over the next 12 months. NASA projects almost 225 launches per year by 2030.
I wonder where the got that "225" number? The current rate is driven by Starlink. By 2030, That constellation will have stabilized, probably at about 40,000 satellites. If the average lifetime is 5 years, they will need 8000 new satellites/yr, and with Starship and a conservative payload of 80 satellites/launch, That's 100 launches/yr, and about a third of them will be from Vandenberg.  So, where are the other 160 launches/yr coming from? More likely, the non-Starlink number will maybe double from this year's 30 or so.

Kuiper, military mega-consellations ?

Online Zed_Noir

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SpaceX's Starlink mission last night was the 66th launch of the year from Florida's Space Coast. The previous record was 57 last year.

Janet Petro, KSC director, said more than 100 launches are planned over the next 12 months. NASA projects almost 225 launches per year by 2030.
I wonder where the got that "225" number? The current rate is driven by Starlink. By 2030, That constellation will have stabilized, probably at about 40,000 satellites. If the average lifetime is 5 years, they will need 8000 new satellites/yr, and with Starship and a conservative payload of 80 satellites/launch, That's 100 launches/yr, and about a third of them will be from Vandenberg.  So, where are the other 160 launches/yr coming from? More likely, the non-Starlink number will maybe double from this year's 30 or so.

Kuiper, military mega-consellations ?

The high number of current Starlink launches will be replaced by many Starship Tanker and some Starship Depot deployment launches. The 225 number is being conservative, IMO. It all depends on how durable the new Starship launch pad and tower will be.

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