New Shepard Discussion Thread

[Purona]

How many flights until BO recoups there R&D money?

it doesnt matter

[jstrotha0975]

How many flights until BO recoups there R&D money?

it doesnt matter

Why doesn't making your money back matter?

[DanClemmensen]

How many flights until BO recoups there R&D money?

it doesnt matter

Why doesn't making your money back matter?

It matters to investors whose goal is to make a profit on their investments in the near term. Does BO have any such investors? If Jeff Bezos is willing to wait (i.e., it's a long-term investment for him) then short-term R&D recovery is not relevant. If Bezos is willing to buy shares from other investors, then those investors do not need to worry about liquidity.   (Same for SpaceX and Musk, of course.)

[JEF_300]

How many flights until BO recoups there R&D money?

it doesnt matter

Why doesn't making your money back matter?

It matters to investors whose goal is to make a profit on their investments in the near term. Does BO have any such investors? If Jeff Bezos is willing to wait (i.e., it's a long-term investment for him) then short-term R&D recovery is not relevant. If Bezos is willing to buy shares from other investors, then those investors do not need to worry about liquidity.   (Same for SpaceX and Musk, of course.)

And even if Bezos was concerned about getting a return on investment from developing New Shepard, part of the reason New Shepard was developed what to build propulsive landing and hydrolox experience for New Glenn and lunar landers. So New Shepard wouldn't necessarily have to pay for itself by itself.

[AndrewM]

How many flights until BO recoups there R&D money?

it doesnt matter

Why doesn't making your money back matter?

It matters to investors whose goal is to make a profit on their investments in the near term. Does BO have any such investors? If Jeff Bezos is willing to wait (i.e., it's a long-term investment for him) then short-term R&D recovery is not relevant. If Bezos is willing to buy shares from other investors, then those investors do not need to worry about liquidity.   (Same for SpaceX and Musk, of course.)

As of last year Bezos owned 100% of the company according to a filing relating to Blue Moon Mk 1 so shouldn't need/want to buy back any shares.

I also highly doubt the New Shepard program will turn a profit. It's a good PR program and way to gain development experience on the way to New Glenn.

[Tywin]

Maybe next year, 1 flight every two weeks?

They start to flight with a lot more cadence...

[lightleviathan]

Maybe next year, 1 flight every two weeks?

They start to flight with a lot more cadence...

There isn't enough demand for that cadence.

[sdsds]

How many flights until BO recoups there R&D money?

It depends on your accounting methods. If they hadn't demonstrated success flying New Shepard with BE-3PM would ULA have considered purchasing BE-4 engines from Blue?

[sstli2]

Maybe next year, 1 flight every two weeks?

They start to flight with a lot more cadence...

There isn't enough demand for that cadence.

For starters, there isn't enough supply. Tail 4 is going about 90 days between launches, Tail 5 about 60 days. Can't really sustain a bi-weekly cadence with that.

Demand, I'm not quite so sure. There's a lot of rich people out there with the $1M to blow on this but not the $100M for orbital flight.

[Starshipdown]

How many flights until BO recoups there R&D money?

It depends on your accounting methods. If they hadn't demonstrated success flying New Shepard with BE-3PM would ULA have considered purchasing BE-4 engines from Blue?

The deal to produce BE-4 for ULA was made about a year before New Shepard first flew, though there were the Charon, Goddard, and PM-3 prototypes that flew, the latter two with actual full rocket engines (BE-1 and BE-2). The final decision in 2018 to go with BE-4 was more a matter of complete BE-4s being fired off on the test stands in Texas while Aerojet Rocketdyne had almost nothing, except a few prototype parts and lots of power point slides.

[sdsds]

The deal to produce BE-4 for ULA was made about a year before New Shepard first flew

Yes, the need to find a replacement for RD-180 engines became apparent in March, 2014 and the first New Shepard flight wasn't until April, 2015. But if ULA made a deal with Blue in 2014 it was to support development of the BE-4, not a commitment to purchase them. As you say the final decision wasn't made until after BE-4 had fired on the test stand and New Shepard had flown at least 7 times.

Are you suggesting that if BE-3 and New Shepard hadn't existed ULA would still have had confidence in Blue's ability to develop and deliver BE-4? In contrast I'm suggesting that the reality of BE-3 gave ULA the confidence to proceed with the BE-4 option, and thus Blue has already recouped their R&D investment in New Shepard.

[catdlr]

Has any member ever plotted out all the actual New Shepard capsule landings on a map?

[catdlr]

New Shepard has some competition from China

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=63234.msg2700226#msg2700226

[StraumliBlight]

Sam.gov: Fair Opportunity Exception for Suborbital Crew Primary Decelerator System Data Review Requirement [Jul 9]

Justification for exception to fair opportunity for the Suborbital Crew Primary Decelerator System Data Review task order under the NASA Suborbital/ Hosted Orbital Flight and Payload Intergrations Services (FO IDIQ 4) is provided as an attachment to this posting.