Poll

Who will win National Security Space Launch (NSSL) phase 3 lane 2?

No winners
0 (0%)
Blue Origin only
0 (0%)
SpaceX only
0 (0%)
ULA only
0 (0%)
1 winner not listed above
0 (0%)
Blue Origin 1st, SpaceX 2nd
0 (0%)
Blue Origin 1st, ULA 2nd
0 (0%)
SpaceX 1st, Blue Origin 2nd
1 (2.7%)
SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd
7 (18.9%)
ULA 1st, Blue Origin 2nd
0 (0%)
ULA 1st, SpaceX 2nd
3 (8.1%)
2 winners not listed above
0 (0%)
Blue Origin 1st, SpaceX 2nd, ULA 3rd
0 (0%)
Blue Origin 1st, ULA 2nd, SpaceX 3rd
0 (0%)
SpaceX 1st, Blue Origin 2nd, ULA 3rd
0 (0%)
SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd
19 (51.4%)
ULA 1st, Blue Origin 2nd, SpaceX 3rd
2 (5.4%)
ULA 1st, SpaceX 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd
4 (10.8%)
3 winners not listed above
0 (0%)
4+ winners
1 (2.7%)

Total Members Voted: 37

Voting closed: 10/16/2024 02:59 am


Author Topic: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?  (Read 2127 times)

Offline deltaV

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Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« on: 10/01/2024 02:59 am »
So who will the winners of the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) phase 3 lane 2 competition be? Lane 2 is the national security procurement for the highest-value missions where you have to do all the orbits (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55784.msg2507835#msg2507835) to be eligible to win anything. The previous competition (phase 2) had ULA in 1st place and SpaceX in 2nd place. (This poll is NOT about the lower value lane 1, which the DOD has already announced that Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA are competing for this year: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55784.msg2600758#msg2600758.)

This poll will be judged 24 hours after the initial announcement of winners, so GAO protests, lawsuits, and other later changes to the winners don't count.

"1st" means the biggest share (probably "60%"), "2nd" the second biggest share (probably "40%"), "3rd" the third biggest share (a few missions). [Edit: A winner has to be planned to receive at least 1 lane 2 launches to count as a winner. Being listed in the source selection document or press conference in a particular place isn't enough if no launches are expected.]

It appears only Blue Origin, SpaceX, and ULA are still being considered (https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=55784.msg2555098#msg2555098) but I included "not listed above" options just in case.

The DOD's goal appears to be three winners but I've given options for any number of winners.
« Last Edit: 10/01/2024 06:38 pm by deltaV »

Offline deltaV

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #1 on: 10/01/2024 03:13 am »
I voted SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd. I think SpaceX will beat ULA this time because the years of Vulcan delays will hurt ULA's past performance rating more than the 3 Falcon anomalies this year will hurt SpaceX's past performance rating.

Offline sstli2

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #2 on: 10/01/2024 03:29 am »
I don't see a compelling case for any other outcome besides SpaceX, ULA, Blue. Seems really obvious to me.

ULA lost their chance to win when they failed to scale Vulcan quickly enough and Blue is getting in because they really want 3 options.
« Last Edit: 10/01/2024 03:30 am by sstli2 »

Online AmigaClone

Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #3 on: 10/01/2024 06:00 am »
If the winner of NSSL phase 3 lane 2 came down to launch vehicles I can see SpaceX first with ULA and Blue Origin taking the next two slots.

If politics play a bigger part in the selection process than the capability and availability of the launch vehicles then I can see SpaceX getting third place at least initially.

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #4 on: 10/01/2024 06:57 am »
I voted for what I think ought to happen. I have no idea what will actually happen.

ULA 1st, SpaceX 2nd, no 3rd.

In a true competition, It should just be SpaceX, winner take all. However, a primary goal of NSSL is to maintain at least two competitors, and ULA is still the best alternative provider. But to remain viable, ULA needs 60% of NSSL, not just 40%. In a fair world, ULA would be down-rated and penalized because they failed to deliver Vulcan Centaur on time for Phase 2, but this would not achieve the objective. Awarding any launches to BO would take them away from ULA (who needs them) or SpaceX (who deserves them), and also would reward BO even though they were a major contributor to the Vulcan delay. USSF also learned that awarding launches to a rocket that is not yet certified is a bad idea.

Offline deltaV

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #5 on: 10/01/2024 08:20 am »
If politics play a bigger part in the selection process than the capability and availability of the launch vehicles then I can see SpaceX getting third place at least initially.
The only circumstances where I see Blue Origin coming in above SpaceX is if SpaceX messes up and bids Starship instead of Falcon or bids crazy high. In other circumstances putting Blue Origin above SpaceX would just invite a protest or lawsuit.

USSF also learned that awarding launches to a rocket that is not yet certified is a bad idea.
Yeah. In lane 1 there's a rule that you won't get assigned any specific payloads until after a successful non-DOD launch. I like this policy since maiden launches are usually years late. I don't know if lane 2 has a similar policy; if not it probably should.

Offline sstli2

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #6 on: 10/01/2024 11:39 am »
Any speculation of SpaceX coming in third is absurd. Yet somehow 2 people voted for it. The military is not an overtly political body.

The only real question mark here is whether Blue gets the third spot. I believe they will because they have a credible plan to qualify as soon as spring 2025 and Lane 2 only requires qualification by the end of 2026, 2 years from now.

P.S. If you voted for SpaceX third, let's make a bet, I will gladly bet $10k, and take your money.
« Last Edit: 10/01/2024 11:40 am by sstli2 »

Online Tywin

Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #7 on: 10/01/2024 04:18 pm »
I voted SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd. I think SpaceX will beat ULA this time because the years of Vulcan delays will hurt ULA's past performance rating more than the 3 Falcon anomalies this year will hurt SpaceX's past performance rating.

I would vote for this option if it inclued Rocket Lab as fourth place...
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Offline dglow

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #8 on: 10/01/2024 05:29 pm »
Any speculation of SpaceX coming in third is absurd. Yet somehow 2 people voted for it. The military is not an overtly political body.

Beg to differ: the military is extremely political, it's just separate from civilian politics.
One can argue the military is a four-party system: Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines. 

(sorry, Space Force – you're still the orbital wing of the Air Force party)

Offline DeimosDream

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #9 on: 10/01/2024 05:52 pm »
Spacex > ULA > Blue Origin.
54% / 36% / 10% ?

Very confident Blue Origin is getting 3rd place. Third appears to be little more than eligibility to receive "launch service support funding" to retain/develop capability to be a credible competition for NSSL Phase 4, but there appears to be too much political pressure to ensure all three get something for Blue to get left out.

SpaceX vs ULA is tougher to judge, but I think/hope SpaceX edges ahead this time around.

Online AmigaClone

Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #10 on: 10/01/2024 05:55 pm »
Any speculation of SpaceX coming in third is absurd. Yet somehow 2 people voted for it. The military is not an overtly political body.

Beg to differ: the military is extremely political, it's just separate from civilian politics.
One can argue the military is a four-party system: Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines. 

(sorry, Space Force – you're still the orbital wing of the Air Force party)

While the military is not as political as some organizations,  it's source of funding (Congress) is extremely political.

Offline deltaV

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #11 on: 10/01/2024 06:35 pm »
I voted SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd.

I would vote for this option if it inclued Rocket Lab as fourth place...

"4+ winners" is your option then. BTW in case this isn't obvious a winner has to be planned to receive at least 1 lane 2 launches to count as a winner. Being 4th place in the source selection document isn't enough.

Offline deltaV

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #12 on: 10/19/2024 07:06 am »
"SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd" got 51% of the final vote. I was expecting it to win by a greater margin than that. Hopefully the winners will be announced by end of year.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #13 on: 10/19/2024 09:43 pm »
"SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd" got 51% of the final vote. I was expecting it to win by a greater margin than that. Hopefully the winners will be announced by end of year.

I might have misunderstood the question, leading me to be one of the 19% who didn't give Blue a piece of the pie. Was the question, "Who will win IDIQ contracts?" or "Who will be awarded Task Orders?"
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Offline sstli2

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #14 on: 10/19/2024 09:50 pm »
"SpaceX 1st, ULA 2nd, Blue Origin 3rd" got 51% of the final vote. I was expecting it to win by a greater margin than that. Hopefully the winners will be announced by end of year.

I might have misunderstood the question, leading me to be one of the 19% who didn't give Blue a piece of the pie. Was the question, "Who will win IDIQ contracts?" or "Who will be awarded Task Orders?"

What are you implying is the difference? For Lane 2, winners are guaranteed some number of missions, are they not? Lane 1 that may not be the case.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #15 on: 10/19/2024 10:00 pm »
I think Blue could win an IDIQ contract if SSC believed they were going to have a certified launch system sometime in phase 3. Then they wouldn't get a task order until the certification process was complete. (Which with no disrespect to Blue could be never.)
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Offline deltaV

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Re: Who will win NSSL phase 3 lane 2?
« Reply #16 on: 10/20/2024 12:14 am »
I might have misunderstood the question, leading me to be one of the 19% who didn't give Blue a piece of the pie. Was the question, "Who will win IDIQ contracts?" or "Who will be awarded Task Orders?"

I meant the announcement that's supposed to happen this fall, which is probably IDIQ contracts. Winners failing to follow through and get certified is a question for a separate poll. I want to be able to judge who was right before we all forget about this poll. :)

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