Total Members Voted: 175
Voting closed: 07/23/2016 11:49 pm
With a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.
2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.
Quote from: rcoppola on 06/24/2016 01:08 amWith a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.Quote from: stoker5432 on 06/24/2016 02:24 pm2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.I'm likewise willing to be optimistic for 2018. One advantage the capsule will have: it doesn't need life support to be installed like its LEO counterparts. Rocketry, both FH and retropropulsion, would be an item to watch.
Quote from: redliox on 06/26/2016 08:30 amQuote from: rcoppola on 06/24/2016 01:08 amWith a star chart in one hand and roll of duct tape in another, come hell or high water, they will throw a Dragon to Mars in 2018.Quote from: stoker5432 on 06/24/2016 02:24 pm2018 for sure. Looking at previous Mars missions, what they're proposing to do is much less complex. They're also smart enough to describe it as a "test flight" so just like the first F9 landing attempts, they can point to a failure as a learning experience and a probable outcome.I'm likewise willing to be optimistic for 2018. One advantage the capsule will have: it doesn't need life support to be installed like its LEO counterparts. Rocketry, both FH and retropropulsion, would be an item to watch.Yes, I can't see them not putting together an EDL test in time, even if it only delivers a tin of Spam for the Vikings. They shouldn't be afraid of embarrassment, as any failure at Mars probably wouldn't produce any newsworthy footage, but success would.
Well, there's this poll:http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=37233.0Reporting my own post to the Mods...
2018, at about 70%.I find it difficult to believe that FH and Dragon 2 won't be flying at that point. So on the grounds that "something" is better than "nothing" I think they'll throw one in the right direction with as much on board as they are able to have ready. Now, I'd give them low odds of being able to do much useful with it other than EDL (ISRU testing is out until 20), but EDL by itself is valuable enough that the only thing I see holding them back is their ablility to manufacture Dragons quickly enough.
Why is two years enough for the project to evolve that much? Is it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?
We're about a quarter of the way through the poll period, and right now about half of respondents think SpaceX will make the 2018 window, and half think it will be 2020 or later. Interesting.~Jon
Quote from: jongoff on 07/01/2016 07:57 pmWe're about a quarter of the way through the poll period, and right now about half of respondents think SpaceX will make the 2018 window, and half think it will be 2020 or later. Interesting.~JonLooked at another way, 90% believe that it will be before 2022. That is, either 2018 as announced, only two years away, or a single slip to 2020That is high confidence.Or Kool-aid drinkingTime will tell
Is it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?
Quote from: sdsds on 06/26/2016 08:09 amIs it something magic about the alignment of the planets that helps SpaceX make great strides forward in two years time? ;-) Really... how come it won't take three years? Or five?Uh... yeah.