California Secrets - SpaceX F9 v1.1 Cassiope Launch Party Thread

[ChrisWilson68]

Does anyone know what that big flat, black piece is between the TE and the vehicle about where the interstage is?

I think it might be a net for the 2nd stage umbilicals. On F9-02 there was no net and the disconnected hoses impacted the T/E, presumably sparked and created a fireball from residual propellant in the lines.

That makes sense, thanks.

Also, does anyone know why the interstage is white here (it's more visible in the other picture)?  The graphics on the current SpaceX web page show it as black.  I think when they first rolled out F9v1.0 it was black, but then later it was white when launching Dragon.

It was always white on actual F9s and only black in their renderings.

There are a lot of pictures of the first F9, when it first rolled out, and it had a black interstage at that point.  It also had a fairing.  They rolled it out to the pad, put it up vertical and took lots of pictures, including some really striking night shots.  Later, they put it back in the hangar and replaced the fairing with the Dragon test article.  The interstage also seems to have changed to white at that point.  Maybe they painted it, or maybe they switched it out.

http://regmedia.co.uk/2009/01/02/falcon_9.jpg

[ugordan]

There are a lot of pictures of the first F9, when it first rolled out, and it had a black interstage at that point.

That was a PR stunt, it was nothing close to a flight vehicle. It wasn't rolled out, it was "assembled" right there in the open.

[spectre9]

If you pull numbers out of your butt, make sure not to touch them.

Smile, your on the party thread. 

Chance of successful launch to first stage MECO 60% ...... P1

Chance of successful payload fairing separation 75% ....... P2

Chance of successful upper stage burn 85% ................... P3

Chance of successful water landing of first stage 2%

Chance of all 9 first stage engines performing nominally 95%

I attribute most of the chance of failure to the rocket not going where it's supposed to go (GNC).

Let us see, your first three events comprise successful mission up to primary payload separation event (I use 'event' in its statistical sense). All four events are statistically independent, e.g. nominal first stage burn does not affect in any way the probability of fairing separation failure. Or, faulty pneumatic pusher which dooms fairing - it has no influence on the first stage performance.

So, the probability of successful primary payload launching can be calculated as "combined event":
P(primary payload success) = P1 *  P2 * P3 * P4
(where P4 is probability of successful separation/initiation of CASSIOPE). Plugging your numbers:
P(primary payload success) = 0.6 *  0.75 * 0.85 * P4 = 0.383 * P4
gives to Cassiope pretty low chances of less than 38% - P4 should be considered (conservatively) less than unity as SpaceX never flied payload adapter before.

Well, your estimate is definitely more conservative than 50%. You are not in optimistic mood today
 

I absolutely love this post. 

38% sounds like a good number to me. If SpaceX pulls it off it means that all their testing has been solid and their people went through everything with a fine tooth comb. It will be an amazing achievement.

F9 v1.0 was a walk in the park compared to this. It wasn't going into mass production, it didn't really have a price limit, it didn't really have a performance goal and they took as long as they liked to launch it.

[go4mars]

38%? 

Well I'll guess 99.999% chance of success in each category.  If there is an incident, we won't know who is right until there is sufficient flight history (We won't know who is right unless there are 2 anomalous flights instead of 1). 

Party Party!

Flight delay was probably due to schedule conflict with "Burning Man"! 

[N_las]

To raise the mood at this party:

http://www.gizoogle.net/xfer.php?link=http://www.spacex.com/falcon9&sa=U&ei=AE4jUp7vFISO7AaokYCACg&ved=0CCMQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNF2sCCvQ_0Qjz0NEyezVCKGYgR3Lw

The offical SpaceX site now translated to 'gangsta'

[Prober]

Everything will go perfectly and SpaceX will move up their schedule, attempting a boost back to the launch site on the next flight.

 

your just jaded by all the eye candy you saw in the plant tour 

[Lars_J]

To raise the mood at this party:

http://www.gizoogle.net/xfer.php?link=http://www.spacex.com/falcon9&sa=U&ei=AE4jUp7vFISO7AaokYCACg&ved=0CCMQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNF2sCCvQ_0Qjz0NEyezVCKGYgR3Lw

The offical SpaceX site now translated to 'gangsta'

Lol, thanks!  (finally someone who gets the point of the thread)

[Robotbeat]

To raise the mood at this party:

http://www.gizoogle.net/xfer.php?link=http://www.spacex.com/falcon9&sa=U&ei=AE4jUp7vFISO7AaokYCACg&ved=0CCMQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNF2sCCvQ_0Qjz0NEyezVCKGYgR3Lw

The offical SpaceX site now translated to 'gangsta'

Lol, thanks!  (finally someone who gets the point of the thread)

That's hilarious!

[AS-503]

To raise the mood at this party:

http://www.gizoogle.net/xfer.php?link=http://www.spacex.com/falcon9&sa=U&ei=AE4jUp7vFISO7AaokYCACg&ved=0CCMQFjAB&usg=AFQjCNF2sCCvQ_0Qjz0NEyezVCKGYgR3Lw

The offical SpaceX site now translated to 'gangsta'

Lol, thanks!  (finally someone who gets the point of the thread)

That's hilarious!

Say it ain't so,

"With its nine first-stage Merlin engines clustered together, Falcon 9 can sustain up ta two engine shutdowns durin flight n' still successfully complete its mission. I aint talkin' bout chicken n' gravy biatch. Falcon 9 is tha only launch hoopty up in its class wit dis key reliabilitizzle feature.
"

[Lars_J]

My favorote section: (bleeped out) 

"Falcon 9, along wit tha Dragon spacecraft, was designed from tha outset ta serve up humans tha *** into space n' under a agreement wit NASA, SpaceX be actively hustlin toward dat goal."

Keep on hustlin', SpaceX. 

[padrat]

Admittedly, I'll be holding my breath on this next launch. We've bet a lot on this horse and hopefully the payoff will be worth it.

Here's to seeing this launch go off, at least mostly, nominal and hoping that things get really busy around here.....

[ChrisWilson68]

Admittedly, I'll be holding my breath on this next launch. We've bet a lot on this horse and hopefully the payoff will be worth it.

Here's to seeing this launch go off, at least mostly, nominal and hoping that things get really busy around here.....

Good luck to you!  There are a lot of people here rooting for SpaceX to succeed.

[tigerade]

Yep.  Best of luck of all of you at SpaceX.   

[ioconnor]

Is there a time scheduled for this yet? I want to see it on the internet as it happens.

[ChrisWilson68]

Is there a time scheduled for this yet? I want to see it on the internet as it happens.

Internet?  Not good enough!  I'm going to drive down to see it with my own eyes.  It's only a 255 mile drive for me.  If they have scrubs, I'll keep driving down to watch until it gets off the pad.

[Jason1701]

Is there a time scheduled for this yet? I want to see it on the internet as it happens.

Mid to late morning PDT, most likely.

[Chris Bergin]

Is there a time scheduled for this yet? I want to see it on the internet as it happens.

No, because the launch date is not yet set.

Or what Jason said!

[QuantumG]

The launch is scheduled for September*.

* maybe

[JBF]

it will happen sometime between 00:00 and 23:59. 

[AncientU]

hoping that things get really busy around here.....

Maybe *busier* is available -- *really busy* sounds like it is taken.
Thanks from all of us who are holding our collective breath to the SpaceX Team.