SpaceX don't have a landing pad yet at VAFB.
7. #6 plus also the primary payload is deployed successfully into the correct orbit.
8. #6 plus also the five secondary payloads are deployed successfully into the correct orbits.
This is going to be a nail-biter. There's a fairly high chance of failure.EDIT:Noticed this is the party thread... Sorry!!!
Quote from: Robotbeat on 09/01/2013 06:08 amThis is going to be a nail-biter. There's a fairly high chance of failure.EDIT:Noticed this is the party thread... Sorry!!!I don't disagree.Let's have a nail biting party.
95% confidence is incredibly high for the first launch of a new launch vehicle. I put that optimistically at 90% for this launch. Realistically would be more like 75-80% (somewhat better than historical 50%, if only because they have done a lot of ground-testing and v1.1 isn't COMPLETELY new and have an inordinate amount of margin in case of performance problems or engine failure).
Quote from: guckyfan on 09/01/2013 06:17 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 09/01/2013 06:08 amThis is going to be a nail-biter. There's a fairly high chance of failure.EDIT:Noticed this is the party thread... Sorry!!!I don't disagree.Let's have a nail biting party.The higher we think the odds of failure are, the more we'll enjoy the party when it succeeds! :-)
Here is hoping SpaceX continues to get more boring and predictable as time goes on, maybe some day 10 years from now I will not stare so intently at the screen during a launch,
SpaceX has crashed first stages into reefs, crashed first stages into second stages, rolling first stages just a few feet off the ground , Oscillations and a rolls on second stages, engines blowing fairings off the stage and shutting down, capsules tumbling uncontrolled in orbit......Here is hoping SpaceX continues to get more boring and predictable as time goes on, maybe some day 10 years from now I will not stare so intently at the screen during a launch,
Quote from: smoliarm on 08/31/2013 06:59 pmSaturn 1B = 1,600,000 lbfF9 V1.1 = 1,100,000 lbf1,100,000 lbf is for F9v1.0. For F9v1.1 the figure is 1,323,000 lbf at sea level, 1,500,000 lbf in vacuum.http://www.spacex.com/falcon9
Saturn 1B = 1,600,000 lbfF9 V1.1 = 1,100,000 lbf
Quote from: SpacexULA on 09/01/2013 06:32 amHere is hoping SpaceX continues to get more boring and predictable as time goes on, maybe some day 10 years from now I will not stare so intently at the screen during a launch, Well, I hope they keep pushing the envelope and never get boring!
Chance of successful launch to first stage MECO 60%Chance of successful payload fairing separation 75%Chance of successful upper stage burn 85%Chance of successful water landing of first stage 2%Chance of all 9 first stage engines performing nominally 95%I attribute most of the chance of failure to the rocket not going where it's supposed to go (GNC).
Chance of successful launch to first stage MECO 60% ...... P1Chance of successful payload fairing separation 75% ....... P2Chance of successful upper stage burn 85% ................... P3Chance of successful water landing of first stage 2%Chance of all 9 first stage engines performing nominally 95%I attribute most of the chance of failure to the rocket not going where it's supposed to go (GNC).
More from the interwebz:
...Since your probability for a successful upper stage burn is higher than your first stage success probability, may I safely assume the 85% you give for upper stage burn is the conditional probability given that the first stage is successful?...
Does anyone know what that big flat, black piece is between the TE and the vehicle about where the interstage is?
Also, does anyone know why the interstage is white here (it's more visible in the other picture)? The graphics on the current SpaceX web page show it as black. I think when they first rolled out F9v1.0 it was black, but then later it was white when launching Dragon.