All of the major components for Apollo except for KSC launch infrastructure were already being worked on, facilities in place, people staffed at a significant scale ...
This discussion is nonsense.
What is this "Mini ITS", btw? Or a Raptor upper stage?
Where does all this unobtainium come from
As of today there isn't even a fully functioning and tested Raptor engine, subscale or not
This is one of the most nonsensical discussions I've ever seen on this site.
A "smaller" ITS is a completely different vehicle.Where does KSC have that infrastructure you are mentioning for this? GSE for the methane stages and everything included.Last time I looked not even the infrastructure for FH was competed and now you are suggesting they are shutting down that pad again soon to build something new for a Mars stunt using a nonexistent vehicle three years from now just because someone throws money at them?You are suggesting the government could throw so much money at them that Musk would scrap his existing business including pissing off customers who are already waiting for their long delayed flights just to do this?Why?Plus, last time I looked at his Instagram account Musk seemed to have other priorities right now.
How is this unobtainium? SpaceX went from first successful launch of Falcon 1 in 2008 to first launch and RECOVERY of Dragon in 2010, just 2 years.
QuoteThis is one of the most nonsensical discussions I've ever seen on this site.You must not visit this site very much, then.
A contract is just paper. Where is that stage?
..SpaceX did NOT start development of F9 and Dragon and stuff only after the first F1 launch, they had already worked on them for many years when F1 first flew....
Quote from: pippin on 04/28/2017 02:47 amA contract is just paper. Where is that stage?Stop. Let me do a poll of what you think my opinion is.Am I:1) Saying that SpaceX WILL accomplish a crewed landing in 2020, that everything has been proven?2) Saying that Elon Musk thinks they WILL most likely accomplish a crewed landing in 2020?3) Saying that Elon Musk might think it's not impossible to accomplish a crewed landing in 2020 (though 2024 much more likely), contingent on the idea that SpaceX MIGHT already have been working on related stuff they haven't been public about yet?
Quote from: Robotbeat on 04/28/2017 02:53 amQuote from: pippin on 04/28/2017 02:47 amA contract is just paper. Where is that stage?Stop. Let me do a poll of what you think my opinion is.Am I:1) Saying that SpaceX WILL accomplish a crewed landing in 2020, that everything has been proven?2) Saying that Elon Musk thinks they WILL most likely accomplish a crewed landing in 2020?3) Saying that Elon Musk might think it's not impossible to accomplish a crewed landing in 2020 (though 2024 much more likely), contingent on the idea that SpaceX MIGHT already have been working on related stuff they haven't been public about yet?I really don't care what your opinion is but _my_ opinion is that (insanities like suicide missions aside) there is now way that SpaceX could land a crew on Mars by 2020 no matter what happens or is being tried, including throwing 100% of the US federal budget at them. ...
Suicide missions not required if you send sufficient supplies and later an ascent vehicle. See? There is a way.
...So you'd have to be prepared to die on the mission which in my book makes it a suicide mission.
Quote from: pippin on 04/28/2017 03:23 am...So you'd have to be prepared to die on the mission which in my book makes it a suicide mission.That makes it literally no different than what Elon Musk already presented at the IAC talk.And I quote:"Are you prepared to die? If that's okay, then you're a candidate for going." --Elon Musk. Source: http://www.theverge.com/2016/9/27/13080836/elon-musk-spacex-mars-mission-death-riskYour objection applies just as much to the regular ITS plan.
...and now the thread is COMPLETELY derailed.
If you have a problem with the way SpaceX approaches risk, please discuss it in another thread.
Getting to Mars is easy...
I don't get the idea of exposing people to space radiation just to see how bad it is to expose people to space radiation. Hyperbolic articles (and individuals looking for funding) aside, we are confident the astronauts will be fine for during of the mission. If we're going to expose people to space radiation for tests, they might as well be exposed while doing a Mars mission (and not TOO high exposure, so we'll have to land them on the surface...).