Where I see things opening up for potential change is with New Armstrong. Despite SpaceX's head start, Blue is likely to have a much easier transition path from New Glenn to New Armstrong than SpaceX from the Falcon family to ITS. Add in the fact that ITS is a specialized design for Musk's Mars plans and a generalist New Armstrong in the same payload class and things change. A reusable general purpose super heavy lifter could give Blue the Moon, especially as ITS is particularly ill-suited to support that market with its design reliance on in situ fuel production and aerobraking.
Musk went from "MCT" to "ITS" and took great care to show how it is a solar system vehicle, not just a Mars vehicle.NA, meanwhile, is just a name. You haven't seen a design, not to mention hardware.
Remember that the Saturn V would've been the largest non-nuclear explosion on a Bad Day...and New Glenn is a bit bigger
A FEW BILLION OFFIf Jeff Bezos is spending a billion a year on his space venture, he just startedTim Fernholz & Christopher Groskopf April 12, 2017
[...]Blue Origin is about to crank out Saturn-sized launch vehicles and no one thinks about the certifications it's going to need just to fly? Remember that the Saturn V would've been the largest non-nuclear explosion on a Bad Day...and New Glenn is a bit bigger.[...]
ITS is wonderful from a human species perspective, but EM's plans to start colonizing Mars in the next decade has no business case. Worse, all he's presented so far is the transport system. He, or another entity, still have to come up with the Mars habitat and sustainable facilities.
Quote from: meekGee on 04/17/2017 06:46 amMusk went from "MCT" to "ITS" and took great care to show how it is a solar system vehicle, not just a Mars vehicle.NA, meanwhile, is just a name. You haven't seen a design, not to mention hardware.An important point, going to New Glenn alone. For good and bad, SpaceX has flown lots of orbital hardware from CCAFS, KSC and VAFB which goes through the specifications and needs of the range, the FAA, NASA and commercial customers. Blue Origin has flown one rocket in the isolated, open desert.Blue Origin is about to crank out Saturn-sized launch vehicles and no one thinks about the certifications it's going to need just to fly? Remember that the Saturn V would've been the largest non-nuclear explosion on a Bad Day...and New Glenn is a bit bigger.I'd want extra safety precautions before one of those birds is let off the chain. Size does matter--and that means more precautions. Not just for GSE but for the entire range.Blue Origin's business strategy must also include one hell of a catastrophic insurance plan if their AFTS goes awry with a New Glenn.Perhaps also Blue Origin will be a "real" business when its money comes from outside the company, not personally financed.
Having Blue in the mix gives a greater chance that prices per kg into orbit will go down.
I fail to see how you can view ITS as not being general purpose. It (the whole system, including the booster) must drastically lower cost of access to space to make a Mars colony possible. Quote from: Lars-J"To make a Mars colony possible." Yes. But for any applications in LEO? Ever noticed how many pickup trucks and how few 18 wheeler cabs there are in the parking lots of shopping malls? One is ludicrously oversized for shopping trips and the other is not. OTOH if you want to ship 80 tonnes cross country the reverse is true. A slightly modified cargo version of ITS (with the same booster) can deliver hundreds of tons to LEO. It could also be used for GTO/GEO, plus deliver and land payloads to the moon and other destinations. The system as described to us will be far more general purpose than you give it credit.
"To make a Mars colony possible." Yes. But for any applications in LEO? Ever noticed how many pickup trucks and how few 18 wheeler cabs there are in the parking lots of shopping malls? One is ludicrously oversized for shopping trips and the other is not. OTOH if you want to ship 80 tonnes cross country the reverse is true.
Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 04/17/2017 08:33 amHaving Blue in the mix gives a greater chance that prices per kg into orbit will go down.And that's the key to seeing market growth and people starting to think of as "space" being a place where they can set up and run a business. Quote from: Lars-J on 04/17/2017 05:30 amI fail to see how you can view ITS as not being general purpose. It (the whole system, including the booster) must drastically lower cost of access to space to make a Mars colony possible. Quote from: Lars-J"To make a Mars colony possible." Yes. But for any applications in LEO? Ever noticed how many pickup trucks and how few 18 wheeler cabs there are in the parking lots of shopping malls? One is ludicrously oversized for shopping trips and the other is not. OTOH if you want to ship 80 tonnes cross country the reverse is true. A slightly modified cargo version of ITS (with the same booster) can deliver hundreds of tons to LEO. It could also be used for GTO/GEO, plus deliver and land payloads to the moon and other destinations. The system as described to us will be far more general purpose than you give it credit.I'm sure no doubts it will be versatile. They doubt it will be economic. Using round numbers it's only less than $1000//lb if every one of those payload lbs carries something. If not then it's the launch price divided by the price and as Arianespace discovered getting just 2 payloads to ride share is tough. Getting 10? If NA that will apply to them as well.
To be honest I am not sure many people will want to move to Mars after all I don't see a massive rush for real estate in Antarctica or northern Canada and both those places are way more hospitable than Mars
Unlike Mars those two places don't have the potential to ever become completely independent.
The big advantage of SpaceX's plan is that it's got a better high concept. Saying, "I want to build a colony on Mars," is a very concrete and easily visualized goal in comparison to "I want to see millions of people working in space."
Quote from: corneliussulla on 04/18/2017 05:44 amTo be honest I am not sure many people will want to move to Mars after all I don't see a massive rush for real estate in Antarctica or northern Canada and both those places are way more hospitable than MarsUnlike Mars those two places don't have the potential to ever become completely independent.