NGL is a big "IF" at this point. If the Government wants NGL, Orbital ATK will proceed with development. If not, it won't. There are only going to be two ultimate EELV winners. Right now there are at least three competitors.
Quote from: smfarmer11 on 04/18/2017 10:35 pmAntares once they've optimized the first stage for the new engines will probably be able to get another 1000lbs up, but it still won't be able to match atlas I believe.My take on this (sorry in advance for dragging a certain company from Hawthorne into the mix):The entry of SpaceX into the market resulted in ULA dropping it's price for the basic versions of Atlas 5. When that happened Atlas V became a cost-effective solution for getting (enhanced) Cygnus into orbit with a bonus being the increased up-mass capacity.So, if and when Antares is put on the back-burner with Atlas V taking the majority of Cygnus launches than SpaceX has succeeded in putting at least one competing launcher out of action.
Antares once they've optimized the first stage for the new engines will probably be able to get another 1000lbs up, but it still won't be able to match atlas I believe.
Orbital ATK discusses Antares rocket's future, confirms new NASA cargo missionOrbital ATK's Antares rocket will launch a Cygnus spacecraft to the International Space Station for the company's first mission under NASA's next round of commercial cargo flights, known as CRS-2.[...]"We do not have plans to retire Antares," company spokesperson Jennifer Bowman said during a recent interview.
Don't forget that Antares is the last NPO Energomash client on the West, and the same goes for Yuzhnoye. I'm pretty sure they will make a very special price to OA to keep their business. Yuzhnoye might go as far as to give it the RD-871 engines (basically a clone of the RD-120K), to keep it on the "politically correct" supply list.
QuoteOrbital ATK discusses Antares rocket's future, confirms new NASA cargo missionOrbital ATK's Antares rocket will launch a Cygnus spacecraft to the International Space Station for the company's first mission under NASA's next round of commercial cargo flights, known as CRS-2.[...]"We do not have plans to retire Antares," company spokesperson Jennifer Bowman said during a recent interview.http://planetary.org/blogs/jason-davis/2017/20170519-orbital-atk-crs-2.html
"For CRS-2, however, Orbital ATK said Cygnus flights will be cheaper than both Dragon and a third option, Sierra Nevada's Dreamchaser spaceplane. This claim is supported by NASA's CRS-2 selection statement, which said Orbital's proposal "had the lowest mission prices of all the proposals.""Also this:"When combined with a CASTOR 30 XL upper stage, Antares in its new configuration is capable of matching the Atlas V 401." - Ed Kyle
"For CRS-2, however, Orbital ATK said Cygnus flights will be cheaper than both Dragon and a third option, Sierra Nevada's Dreamchaser spaceplane. This claim is supported by NASA's CRS-2 selection statement, which said Orbital's proposal "had the lowest mission prices of all the proposals.""
Quote from: baldusi on 04/19/2017 12:31 pmDon't forget that Antares is the last NPO Energomash client on the West, and the same goes for Yuzhnoye. I'm pretty sure they will make a very special price to OA to keep their business. Yuzhnoye might go as far as to give it the RD-871 engines (basically a clone of the RD-120K), to keep it on the "politically correct" supply list.Do you have any solid information that Yuzhnoye actually is able to build such an engine and it will be functional? They have no "RD-871" on their website. If you meant RD-801 and RD-810, they are listed as "in development".
Quote from: gospacex on 05/19/2017 10:29 pmQuote from: baldusi on 04/19/2017 12:31 pmDon't forget that Antares is the last NPO Energomash client on the West, and the same goes for Yuzhnoye. I'm pretty sure they will make a very special price to OA to keep their business. Yuzhnoye might go as far as to give it the RD-871 engines (basically a clone of the RD-120K), to keep it on the "politically correct" supply list.Do you have any solid information that Yuzhnoye actually is able to build such an engine and it will be functional? They have no "RD-871" on their website. If you meant RD-801 and RD-810, they are listed as "in development".Read about it on Zak's site.
Yuzhnoye already worked on the RD-120 thrust improvement program, and so they have all the capabilities needed.
The Launch User's Guide for Antares said that Kodiak is available for polar orbit or high inclination orbits if Antares began launching actual satellites.Is that still an option, or will Antares only be used for Cygnus?
<off topic> I assume that for Antares to fly to SSO from Wallops, a dogleg would be necessary while flying SSW? </off topic>
QuoteJeff Foust@jeff_foustVern Thorp, ULA: we are in discussions with Orbital ATK about flying more Cygnus missions on Atlas 5. #vonbraunhttps://mobile.twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/923274861954453504
Jeff Foust@jeff_foustVern Thorp, ULA: we are in discussions with Orbital ATK about flying more Cygnus missions on Atlas 5. #vonbraun