I've been trying to make a list of capabilities for the big rockets under development that everyone is always discussing.
I've been trying to make a list of capabilities for the big rockets under development that everyone is always discussing. Many estimates, which are mine, so feel free to critique. Here goes. =====================================================Vehicle 1st Launch TransLunar TransMars =====================================================Falcon 9 Blk 5 2017? ~2,500 kg? ~2,000 kg?Falcon 9 Blk 5-X 2017? ~4,000 kg? ~3,000 kg?Falcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~19,000 kg 16,800 kgSLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kgVulcan Centaur 551 2019? ~6,500 kg? ~5,000 kg?New Glenn 2 Stg 2020? ~9,000 kg ~8,000 kgNGL-5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kgSLS Blk 1B 2022? 39,000 kg 32,000 kgVulcan ACES 56x 2023? ~10,600 kg? ~8,400 kg?NGL-5xx-XL 2023? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg?New Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~17,000 kg? ~15,000 kg?SLS Blk 2 2029? ~50,000 kg ~45,000 kg====================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version - Ed Kyle
=====================================================Vehicle 1st Launch TransLunar TransMars =====================================================Falcon 9 Blk 5 2017? ~2,500 kg? ~2,000 kg?Falcon 9 Blk 5-X 2017? ~4,000 kg? ~3,000 kg?Falcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~19,000 kg 16,800 kgSLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kgVulcan Centaur 551 2019? ~6,500 kg? ~5,000 kg?New Glenn 2 Stg 2020? ~9,000 kg ~8,000 kgNGL-5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kgSLS Blk 1B 2022? 39,000 kg 32,000 kgVulcan ACES 56x 2023? ~10,600 kg? ~8,400 kg?NGL-5xx-XL 2023? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg?New Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~17,000 kg? ~15,000 kg?SLS Blk 2 2029? ~50,000 kg ~45,000 kg====================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version
Quote from: edkyle99 on 06/02/2017 08:58 pmI've been trying to make a list of capabilities for the big rockets under development that everyone is always discussing.I'm wondering whether New Armstrong is going to be in ITS territory or just SLS/Saturn V.
Also; the expended core but the two boosters landing downrange on the barges.
Quote from: MATTBLAK on 06/03/2017 02:26 amAlso; the expended core but the two boosters landing downrange on the barges.There are many theoretical options, but I think Ed wants to concentrate on the practical and more likely options.
The way SpaceX wants to fly it (recovering boosters and first stage) it will barely boost 5.5 tonnes toward the Moon...
Quote from: Paul451 on 06/04/2017 06:55 pmQuote from: edkyle99 on 05/27/2017 10:12 pmSo, NASA is supposed to just wait for these proposed launch vehicles to finally appear? Falcon Heavy was supposed to fly in 2013. [...] NASA can't wait for promises when it has the propulsion in hand.What "propulsion" does NASA have "in hand"? They haven't even figured out how to weld the tanks.[...] So in what way would NASA be "waiting" for FH, but have SLS "in hand"?NASA has RS-25 and five-segment booster and RL10 and, for Orion, AJ-10. In-hand.
Quote from: edkyle99 on 05/27/2017 10:12 pmSo, NASA is supposed to just wait for these proposed launch vehicles to finally appear? Falcon Heavy was supposed to fly in 2013. [...] NASA can't wait for promises when it has the propulsion in hand.What "propulsion" does NASA have "in hand"? They haven't even figured out how to weld the tanks.[...] So in what way would NASA be "waiting" for FH, but have SLS "in hand"?
So, NASA is supposed to just wait for these proposed launch vehicles to finally appear? Falcon Heavy was supposed to fly in 2013. [...] NASA can't wait for promises when it has the propulsion in hand.
[Falcon Heavy] The way SpaceX wants to fly it (recovering boosters and first stage)
Even if the entire rocket was thrown away it would not match even SLS Block 1
How complicated could refueling a FH upper stage be?
Two FH launches are still cheaper than one SLS launch.
Quote from: Lars-J on 06/04/2017 06:26 amQuote from: MATTBLAK on 06/03/2017 02:26 amAlso; the expended core but the two boosters landing downrange on the barges.There are many theoretical options, but I think Ed wants to concentrate on the practical and more likely options.Just as likely as the others. We may see it on the Lunar Dragon mission.
Quote from: spacenut on 06/06/2017 12:21 pmTwo FH launches are still cheaper than one SLS launch.Two fully expendable FH launches are cheaper than four months of SLS funding.
I've been trying to make a list of capabilities for the big rockets under development that everyone is always discussing. Many estimates, which are mine, so feel free to critique. Here goes. =====================================================Vehicle 1st Launch TransLunar TransMars =====================================================Falcon 9 Blk 5 2017? ~3,000 kg? ~2,500 kg?Falcon 9 Blk 5-X 2017? ~5,000 kg 4,020 kgFalcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~19,000 kg 16,800 kgSLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kgVulcan Centaur 551 2019? ~6,500 kg? ~5,000 kg?New Glenn 2 Stg 2020? ~9,000 kg ~8,000 kgNGL-5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kgSLS Blk 1B 2022? 39,000 kg 32,000 kgVulcan ACES 56x 2023? ~10,600 kg? ~8,400 kg?NGL-5xx-XL 2023? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg?New Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~17,000 kg? ~15,000 kg?SLS Blk 2 2029? ~50,000 kg ~45,000 kg====================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version
=====================================================Vehicle 1st Launch TransLunar TransMars =====================================================Falcon 9 Blk 5 2017? ~3,000 kg? ~2,500 kg?Falcon 9 Blk 5-X 2017? ~5,000 kg 4,020 kgFalcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~19,000 kg 16,800 kgSLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kgVulcan Centaur 551 2019? ~6,500 kg? ~5,000 kg?New Glenn 2 Stg 2020? ~9,000 kg ~8,000 kgNGL-5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kgSLS Blk 1B 2022? 39,000 kg 32,000 kgVulcan ACES 56x 2023? ~10,600 kg? ~8,400 kg?NGL-5xx-XL 2023? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg?New Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~17,000 kg? ~15,000 kg?SLS Blk 2 2029? ~50,000 kg ~45,000 kg====================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version
=====================================================Vehicle 1st Launch TransLunar TransMars =====================================================Falcon 9 Blk 5-X 2017? ~5,800 kg 4,020 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~20,650 kg 16,800 kgNew Glenn 2 Stg 2020? ~7,725 kg ~8,000 kg====================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version
Quote from: Paul451 on 06/06/2017 04:34 pmQuote from: spacenut on 06/06/2017 12:21 pmTwo FH launches are still cheaper than one SLS launch.Two fully expendable FH launches are cheaper than four months of SLS funding.Since this isn't published by SpaceX, what are your assumptions for these prices?
I've been trying to make a list of capabilities for the big rockets under development that everyone is always discussing. Many estimates, which are mine, so feel free to critique. Here goes. =====================================================Vehicle 1st Launch TransLunar TransMars =====================================================Falcon 9 Blk 5 2017? ~3,000 kg? ~2,500 kg?Falcon 9 Blk 5-X 2017? ~5,000 kg 4,020 kgFalcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~19,000 kg 16,800 kgSLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kgVulcan Centaur 551 2019? ~6,500 kg? ~5,000 kg?New Glenn 2 Stg 2020? ~9,000 kg ~8,000 kgNGL-5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kgSLS Blk 1B 2022? 39,000 kg 32,000 kgVulcan ACES 56x 2023? ~10,600 kg? ~8,400 kg?NGL-5xx-XL 2023? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg?New Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~17,000 kg? ~15,000 kg?SLS Blk 2 2029? ~50,000 kg ~45,000 kg====================================================="X" Denotes Expendable VersionEDIT: Updated Falcon 9 Payload - Ed Kyleedit/gongora: moved from SLS thread
The LSP data hasn't been updated in a while. It doesn't match the data SpaceX has on their website, which is presumably for Block 5. They don't have any data at all on New Glenn or any other vehicle bigger than DIVH.
Which numbers are you referring to?
Quote from: envy887 on 06/07/2017 02:26 amWhich numbers are you referring to?Numbers quoted by LSP or the provider. Any other numbers are, AFAICT, estimates by forum members--which do not appear to be consistent with other "official" numbers.
For that matter, why not just launch a complete FH upper stage fully fueled or a stretched upper stage no payload. Dock Orion to it, then proceed to cis-lunar. No need for refueling. Just separate the booster upper stage, and redock with a new upper stage either sent on a F9 or another FH. Two FH launches are still cheaper than one SLS launch.
You cannot insert a fueled Falcon upper stage to Orbit. It weighs something like 120 tons (this regularly gets missed, for some reason) . And has a length of 12m+ thus making fairing encapsulation impossible.
Quote from: Dante80 on 06/07/2017 04:58 amYou cannot insert a fueled Falcon upper stage to Orbit. It weighs something like 120 tons (this regularly gets missed, for some reason) . And has a length of 12m+ thus making fairing encapsulation impossible. I'm just gunna leave the second part of this alone We don't know much about the Falcon Heavy second stage mass figures. Some reasonable estimates are: Length: 13.8 mDiameter: 3.7 mEmpty mass: 3,900 kgPropellant mass: 92,670 kgThrust: 934 kNISP: 348 s
SLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kg N/A
Oh, and honestly that's the hard way. If you just replace the fairing with a third stage that is identical to the second stage, you'll get 39 tons through TLI. The second stage does 2,230 m/s of the burn to orbit, the third stage does the rest and is 73.4% full when you come to do your TLI burn. Of course, you have to throw away another Merlin, so it's not free, and who knows if the fineness ratio is getting too high here.
Quote from: QuantumG on 06/07/2017 06:27 amOh, and honestly that's the hard way. If you just replace the fairing with a third stage that is identical to the second stage, you'll get 39 tons through TLI. The second stage does 2,230 m/s of the burn to orbit, the third stage does the rest and is 73.4% full when you come to do your TLI burn. Of course, you have to throw away another Merlin, so it's not free, and who knows if the fineness ratio is getting too high here.I'd be surprised if the Falcon 9/heavy upper stage had the structural margins to carry another identical stage and a 39 ton payload.
Not to mention that ~6 mT comsats already are almost maxing out the fairing:
Quote from: ncb1397 on 06/07/2017 09:41 pmNot to mention that ~6 mT comsats already are almost maxing out the fairing:That doesn't look like a 5m fairing, and Falcon 9 fairing internal volume looks much bigger (see below with Jason 3 payload):
I was asking which ones specifically you find inconsistent.
Quote from: edkyle99 on 06/07/2017 07:26 pmSLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kg N/AWhere are these SLS block 1 numbers from?They seem suspiciously low, I think the payload for these trajectories should be higher
Working backward from the Trans-Mars values published by SpaceX, I came up with 5.6 tonnes TLI for F9B5 and 20.9 tonnes TLI for FH. I'm honestly having trouble seeing how Falcon Heavy meets its claimed payload goals, let alone the numbers we've conjured in our guesstimates, unless it incorporates yet-to-be-revealed improvements. To be conservative, I'm putting these at 5.5 tonnes and 20.5 tonnes, respectfully.
I'm certain that New Glenn's TLI number would not be less than its TMI number, so I'm leaving my original guesses on that rocket unchanged for now. I'm adding a GTO column because that is an oft-listed number.
Quote from: envy887 on 06/07/2017 02:55 amI was asking which ones specifically you find inconsistent.All of them. We have LSP's numbers (pre-Block-5?); then we have SpaceX published estimates (Block-5?); then we have member estimates (all over the map). Not unexpected that they are inconsistent.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 06/07/2017 11:06 pmQuote from: ncb1397 on 06/07/2017 09:41 pmNot to mention that ~6 mT comsats already are almost maxing out the fairing:That doesn't look like a 5m fairing, and Falcon 9 fairing internal volume looks much bigger (see below with Jason 3 payload):It is. Jason 3 is just tiny, only 553 kg.
Look at the shape of the fairings in the pictures. The first one is clearly conical, whereas the Falcon 9 one has a long, straight body in the middle.ncb1397 could help clear this up by telling us what the payload was in the picture he supplied, and what the launcher was.
Working backward from the Trans-Mars values published by SpaceX, I came up with 5.6 tonnes TLI for F9B5 and 20.9 tonnes TLI for FH. I'm honestly having trouble seeing how Falcon Heavy meets its claimed payload goals, let alone the numbers we've conjured in our guesstimates, unless it incorporates yet-to-be-revealed improvements. To be conservative, I'm putting these at 5.5 tonnes and 20.5 tonnes, respectfully. - Ed Kyle
Quote from: Hyperion5 on 06/08/2017 03:14 am Now you're doubting the latest upward revision for the Falcon Heavy. I have no basis to believe or to doubt the projected capabilities. The truth is that no Falcon 9 has yet lifted anything close to the various capability claims made for the various versions through the years, but my problem with Falcon Heavy is that I simply haven't been able to conjure a model of this rocket that makes the LEO, GTO, TMI, etc. numbers converge. I'm still trying. - Ed Kyle
Now you're doubting the latest upward revision for the Falcon Heavy.
Quote from: Hyperion5 on 06/08/2017 03:14 am Now you're doubting the latest upward revision for the Falcon Heavy. I have no basis to believe or to doubt the projected capabilities. The truth is that no Falcon 9 has yet lifted anything close to the various capability claims made for the various versions through the years
Quote from: envy887 on 06/09/2017 02:23 amEd, what's your source for the Vulcan numbers? The NASA OIG report on Exploration released a few months ago lists Vulcan-ACES as capable of 14 t to TLI and 10.5 t to TMI.I was extrapolating from the numbers presented on this, and similar, ULA charts. Perhaps ULA has upgraded its performance estimates since this chart was released. - Ed Kyle
Ed, what's your source for the Vulcan numbers? The NASA OIG report on Exploration released a few months ago lists Vulcan-ACES as capable of 14 t to TLI and 10.5 t to TMI.
The 2-stage version is claimed to be able to get 13 tonnes to GTO, so the second stage must be pretty efficient and perhaps lighter (smaller) than it appears in the illustrations. Pretty amazing when you think about it really - more payload than any two-stage rocket in service (and this with first stage recovery). My guess today for New Glenn 2-stage is 8.5 tonnes TLI and 5 tonnes Trans-Mars based on the following guesstimates. (Ask me tomorrow and I might guess differently).S1 1,250 tonnes > 125 tonnes, ISP 329 secS2 155 tonnes > 12.37 tonnes, ISP 360 secPLF 4 tonnesPL = 45 tonnes, delta-v = 9200 m/sPL = 13 tonnes, delta-v = 11720 m/sPL = 8.5 tonnes, delta-v = 12,350 m/sPL = 5 tonnes, delta-v = 12,950 m/s
I wonder if it would be cheaper for Blue to put that 3rd stage directly on the booster to start with... It would still compete with F9R to GTO, and expend a much smaller stage with each launch.But yes, the 3 stage New Glenn is going to be a beast to high orbits...
Some more information on SLS payload capacity released today. Doesn't look like Block 2 will hit 50 tonnes to TLI or 40 tonnes to Mars. Block 1B estimates appear to be pretty accurate though...
Quote from: envy887 on 06/15/2017 07:33 pmSome more information on SLS payload capacity released today. Doesn't look like Block 2 will hit 50 tonnes to TLI or 40 tonnes to Mars. Block 1B estimates appear to be pretty accurate though...From the figures, I can't see the value of Block 2. Other than meeting the technical LEO requirements of the legislation, it doesn't add enough to actual BLEO mission payloads to be worth the money and time.
Just out of curiosity and I might already know the answer but why is ITS not included? I am assuming because it has no set timeline yet per say.
Here is the latest timeline I was able to find:
Quote from: FinalFrontier on 06/15/2017 09:57 pmJust out of curiosity and I might already know the answer but why is ITS not included? I am assuming because it has no set timeline yet per say.This is actually a very good question. ITS is in about the same stage of development as NG and Vulcan-ACES, with main propulsion testing and structural development, and is currently planned for first flight around the same time. Ed?
Seriously, Elon Musk worth is 17 billion. With Model 3 production could easily achieve over 50 billion and you are saying ITS is not funded. He is crazy about Mars for 20 years and risked everything that he owned to build Spacex. ITS first wave will cost under ~10 billion, in 10 years with SpaceX yearly profit and Tesla stock, he could easy to achieve first stage build camp and infrastructure to return ITS back to Earth.Why you underestimated him for 20 years.He was and is only hope that I will see Mars landing in my lifetime. Why so much space enthusiast hope he will fail. Do you understand he is beating company in most competitive branch auto industry?Space launch industry is mostly still 60ies.
Quote from: envy887 on 06/16/2017 01:41 amQuote from: FinalFrontier on 06/15/2017 09:57 pmJust out of curiosity and I might already know the answer but why is ITS not included? I am assuming because it has no set timeline yet per say.This is actually a very good question. ITS is in about the same stage of development as NG and Vulcan-ACES, with main propulsion testing and structural development, and is currently planned for first flight around the same time. Ed?ITS was an interesting presentation. I don't see it as a funded development effort at this point, while the others on my list are serious, funded development efforts as near as I can determine. Musk himself said that major government funding was needed for the ITS as it was presented.
ITS was an interesting presentation. I don't see it as a funded development effort at this point
while the others on my list are serious, funded development efforts as near as I can determine.
Musk himself said that major government funding was needed for the ITS as it was presented.
There are also many people in the private sector who are interested in helping to fund a base on Mars, and perhaps there will be interest on the government sector side to do that too. Ultimately, this is going to be a huge public–private partnership.
I should also add that the main reason I am personally accumulating assets is in order to fund this. I really do not have any other motivation for personally accumulating assets except to be able to make the biggest contribution I can to making life multi-planetary.
Quote from: envy887 on 06/15/2017 07:33 pmSome more information on SLS payload capacity released today. Doesn't look like Block 2 will hit 50 tonnes to TLI or 40 tonnes to Mars. SLS Block 2 should be listed as 37,600 kg to TMI and 45,000 kg to TLI. Block 1B estimates appear to be pretty accurate though...Note that the Block 2 numbers are given as "minimums". Actual payload capabilities would likely exceed.
Some more information on SLS payload capacity released today. Doesn't look like Block 2 will hit 50 tonnes to TLI or 40 tonnes to Mars. SLS Block 2 should be listed as 37,600 kg to TMI and 45,000 kg to TLI. Block 1B estimates appear to be pretty accurate though...
Elon was talking about the most optimistic possible schedule, not the realistic schedule.
The "raptor" engine being tested is said to be subscale mode, not the actual engine.
And absolutely NOTHING has yet been done for launch, manufacturing or testing sites of BFR/ITS. Manufacturing ITS/BFR at Hawthorne would be very problematic due logistics, and they have no pad that they can use for BRF/ITS in the near future.
(LC-39A is not an option for many years even though it's in the video)BO has LC-36 and a new manufacturing facility is being constructed near it.
The thrust level is enormous. We are talking about a lift-off thrust of 13,000tons, so it will be quite tectonic when it takes off. However, it does fit on Pad 39A, which NASA has been kind enough to allow us to use because they oversized the pad in doing Saturn V. As a result, we can use a much larger vehicle on that same launchpad.
Here's a direct quote for you:Elon Musk, June 16 2017: "Major changes to the plan coming soon." Can we please just stop the arguing about whether last September's ITS vehicle belongs on the list until after we hear Elon's update?
Mars V2 plan coming soon, which I think addresses the most fundamental flaw in V1: how to pay for development & operation of giant rockets
Quote from: envy887 on 06/17/2017 04:18 amAfter all, the exact details of most (all?) these vehicles are still in considerable flux and most are educated guesses at best (notice all the question marks...). I think a set of placeholder values for ITS is appropriate.After SpaceX provides more information in (presumably) September. - Ed Kyle
After all, the exact details of most (all?) these vehicles are still in considerable flux and most are educated guesses at best (notice all the question marks...). I think a set of placeholder values for ITS is appropriate.
So soon you wont believe it
[...]
Updated with BFR added, based on the attached chart from Elon's September 29, 2017 presentation.
Using a third stage inside the payload bay is also something that should be very seriously considered.
==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO ==============================================================...BFR 2022? 0 kg 0 kg ~20,000 kgBFR-R 2022? ~73,500 kg ~66,000 kg ??? kg...=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version"R" Denotes LEO Refueling, per launch basis
Updated with BFR added, based on the attached chart from Elon's September 29, 2017 presentation.==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO ==============================================================Falcon 9 Blk 5 2017? ~3,000 kg? ~2,500 kg? 5,500 kgFalcon 9 Blk 5-X 2017? ~5,500 kg 4,020 kg 8,300 kgFalcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kg 8,000 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~20,500 kg 16,800 kg 26,700 kgSLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kg N/AVulcan Centaur 56x 2019? ~8,300 kg ~6,200 kg 10,200 kgNew Glenn 2 Stg 2020? ~7,500 kg? ~3,000 kg? 13,000 kgNGL-5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kg 8,500 kgSLS Blk 1B 2021? 39,000 kg 32,000 kg N/ABFR 2022? 0 kg 0 kg ~20,000 kgVulcan ACES 56x 2023? 14,000 kg 10,500 kg 17,200 kgNGL-5xx-XL 2023? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg? 14,700 kgNew Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~25,000 kg? ~20,000 kg? ~30,000 kg?SLS Blk 2 2028? >45,000 kg >37,600 kg N/A=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable VersionUpdated 10-06-17{/pre] - Ed Kyle
==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO ==============================================================Falcon 9 Blk 5 2017? ~3,000 kg? ~2,500 kg? 5,500 kgFalcon 9 Blk 5-X 2017? ~5,500 kg 4,020 kg 8,300 kgFalcon Heavy 2018? ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kg 8,000 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018? ~20,500 kg 16,800 kg 26,700 kgSLS Blk 1 2019? 24,500 kg 19,500 kg N/AVulcan Centaur 56x 2019? ~8,300 kg ~6,200 kg 10,200 kgNew Glenn 2 Stg 2020? ~7,500 kg? ~3,000 kg? 13,000 kgNGL-5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kg 8,500 kgSLS Blk 1B 2021? 39,000 kg 32,000 kg N/ABFR 2022? 0 kg 0 kg ~20,000 kgVulcan ACES 56x 2023? 14,000 kg 10,500 kg 17,200 kgNGL-5xx-XL 2023? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg? 14,700 kgNew Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~25,000 kg? ~20,000 kg? ~30,000 kg?SLS Blk 2 2028? >45,000 kg >37,600 kg N/A=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable VersionUpdated 10-06-17{/pre] - Ed Kyle
Based on this slide the 2017 BFR/BFS is expected to have a IMLEO of 335 tonnes (250 payload and 85 vehicle dry mass), if both vehicles are fully expended.
Quote from: envy887 on 03/19/2018 07:35 pmBased on this slide the 2017 BFR/BFS is expected to have a IMLEO of 335 tonnes (250 payload and 85 vehicle dry mass), if both vehicles are fully expended. And of course 'fully expended' in this context means 'second stage can be recovered after a lunar flyby, aerobrake into LEO and one tanker refuel in orbit'. Musk mentioned 'around twice' the payload expendable at sxsw. This more-or-less tallies with the above estimate, if you assume the 150 tons is including 20 tons of landing fuel. (this is never quite mentioned, 'around' could work with either including or not.).
Fully expended might mean "no TPS", which would preclude a return of any kind.
Quote from: envy887 on 03/19/2018 07:59 pmFully expended might mean "no TPS", which would preclude a return of any kind. It makes it notably more annoying.Catching a stage coming back from the moon at some 3km/s is quite doable with margin with a nominal BFS.But if you're doing that, you may as well refuel it in orbit as well, and get the whole 250 tons in LLO. (upper stage can manage TEI itself).For the cost of an expended BFR and ten or so unexpended flights.The question of course arises if there is much point in doing this over 150 tons, but it's a fun thought exercise.
==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO ==============================================================Falcon Heavy 2018 ~5,500 kg ~4,900 kg 8,000 kgFalcon 9 Blk 5 2018 ~3,000 kg? ~2,500 kg? 5,500 kgFalcon 9 Blk 5-X 2018 ~5,500 kg 4,020 kg 8,300 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018 ~20,500 kg 16,800 kg 26,700 kgSLS Blk 1 2020? 25,900 kg 19,500 kg N/AVulcan Centaur 56x 2020? ~13,300 kg ~10,000 kg 16,300 kgNew Glenn 2 Stg 2021? ~15,980 kg? ~13,232 kg? ~21,383 kg?Omega 5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg? ~4,700 kg? 10,100 kgBFR 2021? 0 kg 0 kg ~20,000 kgBFR-X 2021? ~55,000 kg? ~35,000 kg? ~80,000 kg?SLS Blk 1B 2024? 39,000 kg 32,000 kg N/AOmega 5xxXL 2024? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg? 14,700 kg?Vulcan ACES 56x 2024? 14,000 kg 10,500 kg 17,200 kgNew Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~23,076 kg? ~20,227 kg? ~28,627 kg?SLS Blk 2 2028? >45,000 kg >37,600 kg N/A=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable VersionUpdated 06-01-18
Vulcan Centaur 5 numbers are pessimistically low. I'd suggest either taking Delta Heavy's capacity and adding 30% or start with GTO at 16,300 kg until something more concrete is released.
Updated with recent events:1 - SLS Block 1 is still notionally Dec 2019, but likely moved to NET 2020, Block 1B likely NET 20232 - New Glenn is still notionally Q4 2020, but more likely 2021. Updated with estimated data from Ed's site and the Silverbird calculator3 - Vulcan-Centaur 5 moved from 2019 to mid-2020, Vulcan ACES moved from 2023 to 20244 - BFR in now notionally NET 2020 (orbital test flights) moved up from 2022, but likely still NET 2021.5 - Added theoretical capability of fully expended BFR as described at IAC 2017. Will add refueling capability once a likely date of a refueling flight test is released.6 - Vulcan Centaur 56x GTO payload updated to 16.3 t per this article7 - NGL is now Omega, payloads are improved for the medium version to GTO, heavy version flies NET 2024: http://spacenews.com/orbital-atk-selects-aerojet-rocketdynes-rl10c-for-newly-christened-omega-rocket/
TBH is "Omega" any more real that Liberty/NGL?
Quote from: john smith 19 on 06/01/2018 07:30 amTBH is "Omega" any more real that Liberty/NGL?They are building first stage hardware, so that is pretty real. No so sure on the hydrolox stage.
Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 06/01/2018 07:51 amQuote from: john smith 19 on 06/01/2018 07:30 amTBH is "Omega" any more real that Liberty/NGL?They are building first stage hardware, so that is pretty real. No so sure on the hydrolox stage.The way I see it, Omega is as real as Vulcan at this point - maybe even more real since Orbital ATK has firmly decided and announced about all of its propulsion options while we're still waiting to hear about BE-4 versus AR-1. Contract competition will weed out all but two of the three or more competitors in a year or two, but until then it is all real. - Ed Kyle
Very skeptical of all of these 2020 stated launch dates.
Quote from: Steven Pietrobon on 06/01/2018 07:51 amQuote from: john smith 19 on 06/01/2018 07:30 amTBH is "Omega" any more real that Liberty/NGL?They are building first stage hardware, so that is pretty real. No so sure on the hydrolox stage.The way I see it, Omega is as real as Vulcan at this point
Quote from: edkyle99 on 06/01/2018 05:18 pmThe way I see it, Omega is as real as Vulcan at this point Looking at its history, (then) ATK has only really offered Liberty/NGL/Omega as a proposal for someone else to fund. I've seen no suggestion that their management wants to develop a launcher out of their own pocket. ... The proposed launch date, therefore, should be read as "if we receive full funding", and no-one is reaching for their wallet.By contrast, ULA management seems to believe they need to develop Vulcan, and that they need to fund it in-house; their biggest hold-up is that Boeing/LM aren't very enthusiastic.
The way I see it, Omega is as real as Vulcan at this point
Quote from: edkyle99 on 06/01/2018 05:18 pmQuote from: Steven Pietrobon on 06/01/2018 07:51 amQuote from: john smith 19 on 06/01/2018 07:30 amTBH is "Omega" any more real that Liberty/NGL?They are building first stage hardware, so that is pretty real. No so sure on the hydrolox stage.The way I see it, Omega is as real as Vulcan at this point Looking at its history, (then) ATK has only really offered Liberty/NGL/Omega as a proposal for someone else to fund. I've seen no suggestion that their management wants to develop a launcher out of their own pocket. ... By contrast, ULA management seems to believe they need to develop Vulcan, and that they need to fund it in-house; their biggest hold-up is that Boeing/LM aren't very enthusiastic.
Quote from: edkyle99 on 06/02/2018 11:31 pm[...]You're doing that thing you do, again. There's a huge difference bewteen getting a launch contract and getting your entire development specifically funded. Pretending they are the same makes honest discussion impossible.
==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO-1800 ==============================================================Falcon Heavy 2018 6,900 kg* 5,565 kg* 8,000 kgFalcon 9 Block 5 2018 3,440 kg* 2,535 kg* 5,500 kgFalcon 9 Block 5-X 2018 ~5,500 kg 4,020 kg 8,300 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018 15,340 kg* 16,800 kg 26,700 kgSLS Blk 1 2020? 25,900 kg 19,500 kg N/AVulcan Centaur 562 2020? ~10,800 kg ~8,600 kg 13,300 kgNew Glenn 2 Stg 2021? ~16,000 kg? ~13,200 kg? ~21,400 kg?Omega 5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kg 10,100 kgBFR 2021? 0 kg? 0 kg? ~20,000 kg?BFR-X 2021? ~55,000 kg? ~35,000 kg? ~80,000 kg?Vulcan 56x Heavy 2023? ~13,500 kg ~10,000 kg 16,500 kgSLS Blk 1B 2024? 39,000 kg 32,000 kg N/AOmega 5xxXL 2024? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg ~14,700 kgVulcan 56x ACES 2024? ~14,000 kg? ~10,500 kg? ~17,200 kg?New Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~23,000 kg? ~20,200 kg? ~28,600 kg?SLS Blk 2 2028? >45,000 kg >37,600 kg N/A=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version*data from NASA LSP, does not include full vehicle performanceUpdated 08-23-18
@envy887Any performance numbers for Falcon Heavy with center core expended only?
Updated with recent events:1 - Vulcan Centaur will debut in 2020 with a 562 and a 54 t upper stage prop load.https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44390.msg1840531#msg18405312 - Vulcan Centaur Heavy (Centaur V+ Long) will have ACES prop load but without IVF and notionally debut 2023https://www.ulalaunch.com/docs/default-source/evolution/vulcan-centaur-overview-17may2018.pdf3 - NASA LSP updated Falcon Heavy Block 5 (and possibly Falcon 9) performance numbers. Added 3,440 kg (F9 ASDS), 6,900 kg (FH reusable) and 15,340 kg (FH expendable) to a TLI at C3=-1.1 km2/s2, and 5,565 kg (FH reusable) and 2,535 (F9 ASDS) to a TMI of C3=7.0 km2/s2==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO-1800 ==============================================================Falcon Heavy 2018 6,900 kg* 5,565 kg* 8,000 kgFalcon 9 Block 5 2018 3,440 kg* 2,535 kg* 5,500 kgFalcon 9 Block 5-X 2018 ~5,500 kg 4,020 kg 8,300 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018 15,340 kg* 16,800 kg 26,700 kgSLS Blk 1 2020? 25,900 kg 19,500 kg N/AVulcan Centaur 562 2020? ~10,800 kg ~8,600 kg 13,300 kgNew Glenn 2 Stg 2021? ~16,000 kg? ~13,200 kg? ~21,400 kg?Omega 5xx 2021? ~6,000 kg ~4,700 kg 10,100 kgBFR 2021? 0 kg? 0 kg? ~20,000 kg?BFR-X 2021? ~55,000 kg? ~35,000 kg? ~80,000 kg?Vulcan 56x Heavy 2023? ~13,500 kg ~10,000 kg 16,500 kgSLS Blk 1B 2024? 39,000 kg 32,000 kg N/AOmega 5xxXL 2024? ~10,300 kg ~8,200 kg ~14,700 kgVulcan 56x ACES 2024? ~14,000 kg? ~10,500 kg? ~17,200 kg?New Glenn 3 Stg 2025? ~23,000 kg? ~20,200 kg? ~28,600 kg?SLS Blk 2 2028? >45,000 kg >37,600 kg N/A=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version*data from NASA LSP, does not include full vehicle performanceUpdated 08-23-18
==============================================================Vehicle 1st Flt TransLunar TransMars GTO-1800 ==============================================================Falcon Heavy 2018 6,900 kg* 5,565 kg* 8,000 kgFalcon Heavy-X 2018 15,340 kg* 16,800 kg 26,700 kg=============================================================="X" Denotes Expendable Version *data from NASA LSP, does not include full vehicle performance
SLS Block-1 25.9 tSLS Block-1B 39 tSLS Block-2 45 tt=tonne or metric ton=1000 kilogramIs there any conceivable scenario where any entity would require and use SLS to get a payload out of the Earths atmosphere simply due to its lifting capacity?
Could this chart be updated to reflect the new conditions. Someone said FH expendable can do 20,300 kg to TLI now. Also, New Glenn, initially is not going to have a 3rd stage. ULA is not developing ACES, at least for now. SLS is not developing block 1B and an upper stage is in doubt.
Quote from: spacenut on 03/04/2020 02:31 pmCould this chart be updated to reflect the new conditions. Someone said FH expendable can do 20,300 kg to TLI now. Also, New Glenn, initially is not going to have a 3rd stage. ULA is not developing ACES, at least for now. SLS is not developing block 1B and an upper stage is in doubt.I doubt that's true, at least without a high energy upper stage.Rule of thumb is 1/3 LEO mass for high energy upper stage and 1/4 LEO mass for medium energy e.g. lox/kerosene.Max LEO mass for Falcon Heavy expendable is 63 tonnes
SLS is not developing block 1B and an upper stage is in doubt.
Updated with recent events:1 - Vulcan Centaur will debut in 2020 with a 562 and a 54 t upper stage prop load.https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=44390.msg1840531#msg18405312 - Vulcan Centaur Heavy (Centaur V+ Long) will have ACES prop load but without IVF and notionally debut 2023https://www.ulalaunch.com/docs/default-source/evolution/vulcan-centaur-overview-17may2018.pdf
So to build a decent upper stage for SLS would require another billion or so dollars. IF, NASA instead gave SpaceX 1/3 of this money for a 5.2m Metholox upper stage, the same length as the existing stage. And IF, NASA gave 1/3 of this money to Blue Origin to develop their 3 stage New Glenn. And IF, NASA gave ULA 1/3 of this money to develop ACES.
Quote from: spacenut on 03/04/2020 08:19 pmSo to build a decent upper stage for SLS would require another billion or so dollars. IF, NASA instead gave SpaceX 1/3 of this money for a 5.2m Metholox upper stage, the same length as the existing stage. And IF, NASA gave 1/3 of this money to Blue Origin to develop their 3 stage New Glenn. And IF, NASA gave ULA 1/3 of this money to develop ACES.Then Congress would take it away and give it back to Boeing.