Author Topic: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion  (Read 295782 times)

Offline AncientU

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #440 on: 06/17/2017 05:05 pm »
I'm wondering how much of a dip would be significant enough to observe with the naked eye. Obviously a 2% dimming won't be enough. I have experience observing eclipsing binaries with an 8" telescope and Tabby's star apparently has dimmed as much as >20% in the past.

Naked eye stars go down to about 5th or 6th magnitude, so Tabby's star (11th magnitude) would be >100x too faint for naked eye viewing.  A 20% dip of a faint star at edge of naked eye viewing would not be perceptible anyway -- the eye can discriminate about 1 magnitude, which goes back to the origins of the magnitude scale.  Large telescopes image stars to 24-25th mags (LSST survey, for instance gets down to 24.5 or so with two 15 sec observations).  Same telescope with longer integrations can obviously go fainter than this by several magnitudes.

Cool stars like M-Dwarfs are excellent planet hosts with the most elaborate planetary systems yet seen.  They do have active surfaces, so are challenging to do radial velocity searches -- also they are faint objects and most flux is longward of (redder than) optical, so near-infrared instruments are needed for RV work.  Kepler, which uses transit spectroscopy, found several wonderful systems around early (bluer) M-Dwarfs.
« Last Edit: 06/17/2017 05:21 pm by AncientU »
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Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #441 on: 06/17/2017 10:29 pm »
Latest blog post from Tabby and the star is still dipping further.

http://www.wherestheflux.com/single-post/2017/06/17/Dip-update-11n---dip-2-is-still-dipping

Offline Stan-1967

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #442 on: 06/18/2017 04:22 am »
Latest update for 6/17.   Watch to the end to see how the latest dimming possibly coincides with past dimming measured by Kepler.


Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #443 on: 06/18/2017 07:30 pm »
Interesting conversation involving Ben Montet on Twitter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/benmontet/status/876331722295713792

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #444 on: 06/18/2017 09:37 pm »
If it follows the sequence we should next see a dip to 8% and over a number of days a return to nominal.

Online M.E.T.

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #445 on: 06/18/2017 09:46 pm »
If it follows the sequence we should next see a dip to 8% and over a number of days a return to nominal.

If we are indeed seeing the prelude to the previous large 8% drop, then what the heck happened to the 22% drop that should have preceded it by a month or thereabouts? Half the world was watching it during this period (a slight overstatement for dramatic effect). Did they just miss it?
« Last Edit: 06/18/2017 09:47 pm by M.E.T. »

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #446 on: 06/18/2017 09:48 pm »
If it follows the sequence we should next see a dip to 8% and over a number of days a return to nominal.

If we are indeed seeing the prelude to the previous large 8% drop, then what the heck happened to the 22% drop that should have preceded it by a couple of months or thereabouts? Half the world was watching it during this period (a slight overstatement for dramatic effect). Did they just miss it?

I thought that might be explained by it being hard to observe at that time, wasn't it badly placed in the sky for observation?

Online M.E.T.

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #447 on: 06/18/2017 09:58 pm »
If it follows the sequence we should next see a dip to 8% and over a number of days a return to nominal.

If we are indeed seeing the prelude to the previous large 8% drop, then what the heck happened to the 22% drop that should have preceded it by a couple of months or thereabouts? Half the world was watching it during this period (a slight overstatement for dramatic effect). Did they just miss it?

I thought that might be explained by it being hard to observe at that time, wasn't it badly placed in the sky for observation?

Ok. I wasn't aware of that. Are you aware of the speculation about the various dips being multiples of one another, basically hypothesizing a number of fixed configuration swarms that sometimes overlap and sometimes don't in our line of sight, leading to different sized dips depending on where they are in their individual orbits?

In which case the big 22% dip would represent a number of these swarms happening to appear next to each other in our line of sight, to cumulatively block out a massive 22% of the star's light. This alignment might not occur at a set frequency, or even to exactly the same extent again, if the individual swarms are in different orbits. Perhaps not even on the same orbital plane and we just happen to catch whichever bits of each swarm happen to cross our line of sight at any given point in time.
« Last Edit: 06/18/2017 10:00 pm by M.E.T. »

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #448 on: 06/18/2017 10:04 pm »
If it follows the sequence we should next see a dip to 8% and over a number of days a return to nominal.

If we are indeed seeing the prelude to the previous large 8% drop, then what the heck happened to the 22% drop that should have preceded it by a couple of months or thereabouts? Half the world was watching it during this period (a slight overstatement for dramatic effect). Did they just miss it?

I thought that might be explained by it being hard to observe at that time, wasn't it badly placed in the sky for observation?

Ok. I wasn't aware of that. Are you aware of the speculation about the various dips being multiples of one another, basically hypothesizing a number of fixed configuration swarms that sometimes overlap and sometimes don't, in our line of sight, leading to different sized dips depending on where they are in their individual orbits?

In which case the big 22% dip would represent a number of these swarms happening to appear next to each other in our line of sight, to cumulatively block out a massive 22% of the star's light. This alignment might not occur at a set frequency, or even to exactly the same extent again, if the individual swarms are in different orbits. Perhaps not even on the same orbital plane and we just happen to catch whichever bits of each swarm happwn to cross our line of sight at any given point in time.

I think it's dangerous to speculate numerically myself. The thing that bothers me is if for the sake of wild speculation it was an ETI why would we expect to find a pattern we'd recognise?

By the way have you see that Astrophysicist and  Sci Fi author Gregory Benford has stated on FB: "Fits no good model. A real mystery." (Via Reddit)
« Last Edit: 06/18/2017 10:13 pm by Star One »

Online M.E.T.

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #449 on: 06/18/2017 10:13 pm »
If it follows the sequence we should next see a dip to 8% and over a number of days a return to nominal.

If we are indeed seeing the prelude to the previous large 8% drop, then what the heck happened to the 22% drop that should have preceded it by a couple of months or thereabouts? Half the world was watching it during this period (a slight overstatement for dramatic effect). Did they just miss it?

I thought that might be explained by it being hard to observe at that time, wasn't it badly placed in the sky for observation?

Ok. I wasn't aware of that. Are you aware of the speculation about the various dips being multiples of one another, basically hypothesizing a number of fixed configuration swarms that sometimes overlap and sometimes don't, in our line of sight, leading to different sized dips depending on where they are in their individual orbits?

In which case the big 22% dip would represent a number of these swarms happening to appear next to each other in our line of sight, to cumulatively block out a massive 22% of the star's light. This alignment might not occur at a set frequency, or even to exactly the same extent again, if the individual swarms are in different orbits. Perhaps not even on the same orbital plane and we just happen to catch whichever bits of each swarm happwn to cross our line of sight at any given point in time.

I think it's dangerous to speculate numerically myself. The thing that bothers me is if for the sake of wild speculation it was an ETI why would we expect to find a pattern we'd recognise?

By the way have you see that Astrophysicist and  Sci Fi author Gregory Benford has stated on FB: "Fits no good model. A real mystery."

Not sure what you mean by a recognizeable pattern. I'm not suggesting the pattern is deliberate. We would simply be observing whichever such objects coincidentally crossed our line of sight.

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #450 on: 06/18/2017 10:15 pm »
If it follows the sequence we should next see a dip to 8% and over a number of days a return to nominal.

If we are indeed seeing the prelude to the previous large 8% drop, then what the heck happened to the 22% drop that should have preceded it by a couple of months or thereabouts? Half the world was watching it during this period (a slight overstatement for dramatic effect). Did they just miss it?

I thought that might be explained by it being hard to observe at that time, wasn't it badly placed in the sky for observation?

Ok. I wasn't aware of that. Are you aware of the speculation about the various dips being multiples of one another, basically hypothesizing a number of fixed configuration swarms that sometimes overlap and sometimes don't, in our line of sight, leading to different sized dips depending on where they are in their individual orbits?

In which case the big 22% dip would represent a number of these swarms happening to appear next to each other in our line of sight, to cumulatively block out a massive 22% of the star's light. This alignment might not occur at a set frequency, or even to exactly the same extent again, if the individual swarms are in different orbits. Perhaps not even on the same orbital plane and we just happen to catch whichever bits of each swarm happwn to cross our line of sight at any given point in time.

I think it's dangerous to speculate numerically myself. The thing that bothers me is if for the sake of wild speculation it was an ETI why would we expect to find a pattern we'd recognise?

By the way have you see that Astrophysicist and  Sci Fi author Gregory Benford has stated on FB: "Fits no good model. A real mystery."

Not sure what you mean by a recognizeable pattern. I'm not suggesting the pattern is deliberate. We would simply be observing whichever such objects coincidentally crossed our line of sight.

Yeah sorry I should of been clearer. Put it down to being infuriated by people posting online thinking little green men are sending us numerical signals. (I kid not).

Online M.E.T.

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #451 on: 06/18/2017 10:26 pm »

Yeah sorry I should of been clearer. Put it down to being infuriated by people posting online thinking little green men are sending us numerical signals. (I kid not).

Ah, ok. No, nothing like that. Just objects in different orbits, aligning at times, and not at other times. From our vantage point.

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #452 on: 06/18/2017 10:32 pm »

Yeah sorry I should of been clearer. Put it down to being infuriated by people posting online thinking little green men are sending us numerical signals. (I kid not).

Ah, ok. No, nothing like that. Just objects in different orbits, aligning at times, and not at other times. From our vantage point.

I don't think we are going to easily solve this star though if it does have strict repeats and periodicity that may give us clues. If nothing else for now it shows Kepler produced good data for it which refutes the claims of certain people who were not just casting doubt on it but the teams behind it.

Offline Stan-1967

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #453 on: 06/19/2017 12:25 am »

Yeah sorry I should of been clearer. Put it down to being infuriated by people posting online thinking little green men are sending us numerical signals. (I kid not).

Ah, ok. No, nothing like that. Just objects in different orbits, aligning at times, and not at other times. From our vantage point.


I don't think we are going to easily solve this star though if it does have strict repeats and periodicity that may give us clues. If nothing else for now it shows Kepler produced good data for it which refutes the claims of certain people who were not just casting doubt on it but the teams behind it.


Repeats in periodicity, that also match the same shape & optical depth as previous dips is going to be very hard to explain with comets, torn up planets, & various transient phenomena.  Same goes for mechanism internal to the star.   Seems very unlikely that they would repeat.  So I guess it will be interesting to see what happens in the next 20-30 days.

As to refutation of the person proposing problems with the Kepler instruments, if we are talking about the one frequenting these NSF threads, that person's objections were never rooted in anything factual, and contained nothing of merit that called for any rebuttal.

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #454 on: 06/19/2017 04:00 am »
This video contains the latest Bruce Gary data for the 18th June.


Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #455 on: 06/19/2017 08:14 pm »
« Last Edit: 06/19/2017 08:15 pm by Star One »

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #456 on: 06/20/2017 07:24 am »
This video contains the latest Bruce Gary data for the 19th June.


Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #457 on: 06/20/2017 07:29 am »
Speculation is that the current dip is like the d1540 dip in the Kepler data not d1568 as was initially thought. Meaning we should get the 8% dip next month if there is indeed a repeating pattern.
« Last Edit: 06/20/2017 07:30 am by Star One »

Online M.E.T.

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #458 on: 06/20/2017 07:52 am »
Speculation is that the current dip is like the d1540 dip in the Kepler data not d1568 as was initially thought. Meaning we should get the 8% dip next month if there is indeed a repeating pattern.

Star One

You seem to have followed the discussion about this star quite closely over time, so maybe you can help me out. What is the current theory about why so many of the dips appear to be preceded by a brief increase in luminosity?

I mean, the idea of a reflective body on the opposite side of the star causing the luminosity to increase may be plausible at random times, but why would it coincide so closely with dips that follow immediately thereafter? Is there any theory that explains this in plausible fashion as yet?

Offline Star One

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Re: Boyajians Star Updates And Discussion
« Reply #459 on: 06/20/2017 08:45 am »
Speculation is that the current dip is like the d1540 dip in the Kepler data not d1568 as was initially thought. Meaning we should get the 8% dip next month if there is indeed a repeating pattern.

Star One

You seem to have followed the discussion about this star quite closely over time, so maybe you can help me out. What is the current theory about why so many of the dips appear to be preceded by a brief increase in luminosity?

I mean, the idea of a reflective body on the opposite side of the star causing the luminosity to increase may be plausible at random times, but why would it coincide so closely with dips that follow immediately thereafter? Is there any theory that explains this in plausible fashion as yet?

If you look at the discussions there are as many theories as stars in the sky it feels like.

On the natural side of things it seems like a ringed planet of unprecedented size is still in with strong shout.

Also orbital collision with a debris field in orbit around the star.

One thing I've seen suggested is that the material causing the d1520 dip has a different orbital period than the material causing the d1510, d1525 and d1540 dips, which appear to occupy the same orbit.

« Last Edit: 06/20/2017 09:01 am by Star One »

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