Total Members Voted: 320
Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 pm
Assuming a trouble-free completion of 2017, I'd say that anything less than 10 orbital launches in 2018 is equivalent to "something goes drastically wrong". Separating out that range is simply betting when in the year that event occurs; we can cover that bet with a 0-9 range at the bottom. Then we can let the optimism express itself by unit increments up to say 30, and break to high-optimism ranges from there up.
Perhaps just put the numbers 0 to 35 down the left hand column and let the pollers decide.After all you're only saving a few bytes on a web page
Or we could have a poll to decide the launch number options of the 2018 poll.
...reach weekly launches, switch to 5-fold ranges.
but... what the point of the poll then?I understand historically you want to predict if they beat other (and by how much) providers, failures and such, but with 50+ / year would anyone care to predict at all?
So the high probabilities (unless there is a launch incident) to 18 to 21 with the most likely to be 19 or 20 for the year. Interestingly the highest correct is if the number for the year is 18 which would be 26 correct guesses and the lowest if the number is 19 which would be only 9 correct answers.
SpaceX still needs to have 3 more successful launches to pass the mean/median of the poll (14.5). But once past that value there will be more that under guessed the number of launches than over guessed. As the numbers continue to climb the ratio gets quickly worse. Which is my way of saying that we are a very pessimistic bunch.