Author Topic: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)  (Read 63376 times)

Offline Lar

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #60 on: 04/18/2013 02:54 pm »
It beat out F9 for 4 launches.

Which 4? Was F9 really a contender? Contradicts what Ms. Shotwell said about winning everything they competed for.


But hey - the more the merrier, and I really don't see these two companies headed for the same market area, so there isn't even real competition.  There's some overlap on ISS cargo delivery, but in the grand scheme of things, they can't survive on that alone.  The whole point is that they find other markets, and it looks like they all can, so beers all around.

Roger that. To SpaceX, ISS Cargo is just a happy thing that came along, is my thinking... They were glad to bid on it and it gives them some paid for flights but it's not their long term bread and butter.
« Last Edit: 04/18/2013 02:57 pm by Lar »
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Online meekGee

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #61 on: 04/18/2013 03:13 pm »

And if you want to put a SpaceX spin on it, they feared the then plans of SpaceX would not meet the Delta II class payload needs of it's satellite business. If they had confidence in SpaceX, they most likely would not have built the Antares.

...  no, not really.  I wasn't the one who brought it up, I was here mainly to see how the rocket did and why it's built the way it is.

Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
« Last Edit: 04/18/2013 04:21 pm by meekGee »
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #62 on: 04/18/2013 03:36 pm »
I agree... Looking forward to the launch, hopefully the decals don't peel like a banana.
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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #63 on: 04/18/2013 03:45 pm »

So this answers the "why" from a few posts ago.  A new rocket is always fun, but if the upside is just a delta II replacement then it's less exciting to me than what's in those other forums you complain that I frequent too much...

Other than, which is in the Orbital threads somewhere, at that point in time ULA had it's EELV solutions, but the (at that point) lower cost Delta II left a capability gap that Orbital feared would jack up the launch prices of Delta II class sized payloads that must fly on US launchers, thus putting many of these payloads into a cost death spiral that would cost Orbital Delta II sized satellite business. Orbital did not get into the business to challenge established launch providers, but to fill a gap that they feared would cost them satellite contracts. Hence the Antares was born.

And if you want to put a SpaceX spin on it, they feared the then plans of SpaceX would not meet the Delta II class payload needs of it's satellite business. If they had confidence in SpaceX, they most likely would not have built the Antares.

good business plan for Orbital
 
But Orbital, SpaceX, ULA and Russia will have some major competition coming from SKorea.  See the Naro update I posted. 
 
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=27497.msg1040327#msg1040327
« Last Edit: 04/18/2013 03:47 pm by Prober »
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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #64 on: 04/18/2013 03:50 pm »

So this answers the "why" from a few posts ago.  A new rocket is always fun, but if the upside is just a delta II replacement then it's less exciting to me than what's in those other forums you complain that I frequent too much...

Other than, which is in the Orbital threads somewhere, at that point in time ULA had it's EELV solutions, but the (at that point) lower cost Delta II left a capability gap that Orbital feared would jack up the launch prices of Delta II class sized payloads that must fly on US launchers, thus putting many of these payloads into a cost death spiral that would cost Orbital Delta II sized satellite business. Orbital did not get into the business to challenge established launch providers, but to fill a gap that they feared would cost them satellite contracts. Hence the Antares was born.

And if you want to put a SpaceX spin on it, they feared the then plans of SpaceX would not meet the Delta II class payload needs of it's satellite business. If they had confidence in SpaceX, they most likely would not have built the Antares.

good business plan for Orbital
 
But Orbital, SpaceX, ULA and Russia will have some major competition coming from SKorea.  See the Naro update I posted. 

I doubt the Koreans are a threat - their launcher will be late to the party and obviously is mainly for domestic use. Same with the Japanese.

Now the Chinese and Indians and Italians? This is another story.... however Antares stands at a good position of being US based, so I can see it and the F9 bisecting the old Delta market, with a few Atlas V thrown into the measure.

Anyway this may be a better topic in the Antares general thread and not in the A-ONE thread....
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Offline Prober

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #65 on: 04/18/2013 07:24 pm »

So this answers the "why" from a few posts ago.  A new rocket is always fun, but if the upside is just a delta II replacement then it's less exciting to me than what's in those other forums you complain that I frequent too much...

Other than, which is in the Orbital threads somewhere, at that point in time ULA had it's EELV solutions, but the (at that point) lower cost Delta II left a capability gap that Orbital feared would jack up the launch prices of Delta II class sized payloads that must fly on US launchers, thus putting many of these payloads into a cost death spiral that would cost Orbital Delta II sized satellite business. Orbital did not get into the business to challenge established launch providers, but to fill a gap that they feared would cost them satellite contracts. Hence the Antares was born.

And if you want to put a SpaceX spin on it, they feared the then plans of SpaceX would not meet the Delta II class payload needs of it's satellite business. If they had confidence in SpaceX, they most likely would not have built the Antares.

good business plan for Orbital
 
But Orbital, SpaceX, ULA and Russia will have some major competition coming from SKorea.  See the Naro update I posted. 

I doubt the Koreans are a threat - their launcher will be late to the party and obviously is mainly for domestic use. Same with the Japanese.



not a threat, but a competitor.  Hope you watched the video I posted. The video was the chopped down version from what I saw the other night.
 
Their plans are to move way past "domestic use" and offer complete packages.  Also if SK has a copy = to Russia's next generation engine then Russia needs to move quicker IMHO.
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Offline Jim

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #66 on: 04/18/2013 07:26 pm »

 
But Orbital, SpaceX, ULA and Russia will have some major competition coming from SKorea. 

Not at all

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #67 on: 04/18/2013 07:45 pm »

 
But Orbital, SpaceX, ULA and Russia will have some major competition coming from SKorea. 

Not at all

Believe it Jim, they have Sat platforms (on the shelf) and launch services under construction.
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Offline Jim

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #68 on: 04/18/2013 07:47 pm »

Believe it Jim, they have Sat platforms (on the shelf) and launch services under construction.

That doesn't mean it is competition.
Your point is unsubstantiated.
« Last Edit: 04/18/2013 07:47 pm by Jim »

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #69 on: 04/18/2013 07:59 pm »

Believe it Jim, they have Sat platforms (on the shelf) and launch services under construction.

That doesn't mean it is competition.
Your point is unsubstantiated.

When they take the Sat platforms and start to sell them (in the plans) then it is competition.   Sides the administration signed off on much of this with the "Free trade agreement" I haven't read it, however I do watch the S.Korea news (its retransmitted local).  Can tell the competition is coming. 
 
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Offline mlindner

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #70 on: 04/18/2013 08:02 pm »

Believe it Jim, they have Sat platforms (on the shelf) and launch services under construction.

That doesn't mean it is competition.
Your point is unsubstantiated.

Agreeing with Jim here (wow). I'd be surprised if SK could beat out the Chinese let alone SpaceX. They're another government launcher with powerpoint plans for commercial.

We're getting off topic though.
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #71 on: 04/18/2013 08:49 pm »
But Orbital, SpaceX, ULA and Russia will have some major competition coming from SKorea. 

With what launch vehicle?
« Last Edit: 04/18/2013 08:49 pm by Lars_J »

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #72 on: 04/18/2013 09:12 pm »
But Orbital, SpaceX, ULA and Russia will have some major competition coming from SKorea. 

With what launch vehicle?

Never mind "what launch vehicle". The South Koreans doesn't even have a suitable engine available.

Back on topic. Orbital at least have the NK33 stockpile available to base their launch vehicle on, when they got the late entry into the COTS program..

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #73 on: 04/19/2013 12:44 am »
But Orbital, SpaceX, ULA and Russia will have some major competition coming from SKorea. 

With what launch vehicle?

Never mind "what launch vehicle". The South Koreans doesn't even have a suitable engine available.

Back on topic. Orbital at least have the NK33 stockpile available to base their launch vehicle on, when they got the late entry into the COTS program..

sorry didn't wish to take it off topic.....too much excitement with new engines.
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Offline deltaV

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #74 on: 04/20/2013 02:58 pm »
From update thread:
Early WX balloon run of the Overpressure safety criteria (which was marginal on Wed) was reported as "good."  It's the last balloon before launch that counts, though...

1. What's the overpressure safety criteria?

2. Do you need to get a clearance from FAA flight controllers for a weather balloon launch? I suspect a weather balloon is too small for regulation under FAA Part 101 (http://www.chem.hawaii.edu/uham/part101.html).

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #75 on: 04/20/2013 04:15 pm »
The FAA we are talking about is not "aeronautical" FAA but "space" FAA ("Code 700").  One of te conditions for the launch license is the "Focused Blast Overpressure" risk (read: glass shards from broken windows hurting people) which depoends on atmospheric conditions that are measured by weather balloons.
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Offline input~2

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #76 on: 04/20/2013 04:45 pm »
NOTAM
Quote
!CARF 04/109 (KZNY A0226/13)  ZNY AIRSPACE DCC ANTARES ONE  STATIONARY RESERVATION WITHIN AN AREA BNDD BY 2657N/6014W 2807N/5848W  1834N/5030W 1814N/5058W 1814N/5212W SFC-UNL WEF 1304202100-1304210030

Offline edkyle99

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #77 on: 04/20/2013 04:54 pm »
It's obviously a very different machine from the ULA launchers or Falcon-9.  Would I be right in saying that the core will get almost all the way to orbit and the U/S is little more than a kick stage to get the perigee up?

You know, I don't understand the choice of a solid U/S.  It seems to have all the wrong attributes for an U/S.

Solids, IIUC, have a high "dry" weight, since the entire "tank" is thick walled.  And in an U/S, every pound wasted is 100% at the expense of payload.

Also, it burns to depletion, so you can't control end-of-burn, so I'd think that precision insertion is problematic.

Lastly, it is not a high ISP solution.

I always thought that solids are good as either high-thrust boosters, or BEO kick stages since they are simple and can last a long time in orbit.

Anyone familiar with why they went with a solid U/S?
As Jim answered, the answer is "cost".  The ultimate Antares second stage will be Castor 30XL, a stretched version that reportedly only cost $57 million to develop.  That's probably not much more than it costs to build and fly one or two Centaur stages.  Centaur, of course, cost far more than $57 million to develop, but that cost has been amortized over decades of flights by many stages now.  Orbital did not have that luxury.

Speaking of Centaur, Castor 30XL will have a better propellant mass ratio than that well-regarded and very successful liquid hydrogen upper stage.  That "high dry weight" often associated with solid motors does not apply in this case, nor for many of the modern day solid motors.

Centaur, of course will generate much more specific impulse than Castor 30XL, but the improved Antares second stage will still produce more than 75% as much total impulse as Centaur.  Castor 30XL will produce 3.8 times more total impulse than the Delta 2 second stage while having a far better PMF than that pressure fed stage. 

Castor 30XL is a high performance graphite epoxy case solid motor with a huge nozzle designed to extract maximum performance.  It provides that performance without need for any cryogenic propellant handling or loading at the pad.  It is a good deal for Orbital, which is trying hard to develop a rocket that can make money flying only a few times per year. 

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« Last Edit: 04/20/2013 05:06 pm by edkyle99 »

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #78 on: 04/20/2013 04:55 pm »
Kudos to the Orbital PR team after a little bit behind during their previous coverage - they are noting little details on the pre-launch timeline that I have never heard of in any launch I have seen (not even Shuttle launches!). They are even reporting what temperature the payload ECS have been adjusted to (80F) or that the team was reviewing simulated telemetry displays!  8)
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Offline input~2

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Re: Antares A-One General Discussion Thread (2)
« Reply #79 on: 04/20/2013 05:12 pm »
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