I don't think retirement is the right question. When does SpaceX start raising the price of Falcon to get people to use ITSy? When does Falcon get delegated to "conservative customers" only?
In other words, if booster recovery continues to work, and I see no reason why it shouldn't even if there are more bumps in the road for SpaceX then the Falcon 9 may find itself in the situation of thousands of aircraft still flying even though their production was discontinued many years ago. Shutting down the production line is not the same as shutting down the launch vehicle.
Quote from: aero on 10/20/2017 07:22 amIn other words, if booster recovery continues to work, and I see no reason why it shouldn't even if there are more bumps in the road for SpaceX then the Falcon 9 may find itself in the situation of thousands of aircraft still flying even though their production was discontinued many years ago. Shutting down the production line is not the same as shutting down the launch vehicle.They will still need to run the second stage production line and cost pressure to shut it down will increase over time. Assuming that BFR works as intended they will phase out Falcon, with the possible exception for a while of manned Dragon flights to the ISS. They can build a stock of second stages for that as it will be a predetermined number of flights.
Quote from: guckyfan on 10/20/2017 08:08 amQuote from: aero on 10/20/2017 07:22 amIn other words, if booster recovery continues to work, and I see no reason why it shouldn't even if there are more bumps in the road for SpaceX then the Falcon 9 may find itself in the situation of thousands of aircraft still flying even though their production was discontinued many years ago. Shutting down the production line is not the same as shutting down the launch vehicle.They will still need to run the second stage production line and cost pressure to shut it down will increase over time. Assuming that BFR works as intended they will phase out Falcon, with the possible exception for a while of manned Dragon flights to the ISS. They can build a stock of second stages for that as it will be a predetermined number of flights.Has SpaceX stopped working on the recoverable fairing and second stage for the Falcon 9? Were they ever working seriously on second stage recovery? Of course with the BFR/BFS in operation, there is little or no benefit from a recoverable second stage for the Falcon 9 as the stockpile can deal with the transition.
Could all of the second stages be drifted into a "salvage yard" orbit and maybe station keep for a while? Obviously not launches with different inclinations than the salvage yard, but launches to the ISS perhaps? What sort of device/equipment would be needed at the salvage yard to attach and lock the orbiting stages into formation? Do the second stages fall within the 50 ton down mass limit? Seems I recall they mass less than half of that.
Quote from: aero on 10/25/2017 02:27 amCould all of the second stages be drifted into a "salvage yard" orbit and maybe station keep for a while? Obviously not launches with different inclinations than the salvage yard, but launches to the ISS perhaps? What sort of device/equipment would be needed at the salvage yard to attach and lock the orbiting stages into formation? Do the second stages fall within the 50 ton down mass limit? Seems I recall they mass less than half of that.Why do you want to salvage them? Assuming the BFR becomes operational with its extreme payload capability, what possible use could they have?
If the BFR doesn't have a LAS, F9 would be needed for manned NASA flights.
Quote from: Lars-J on 10/25/2017 05:42 amQuote from: aero on 10/25/2017 02:27 amCould all of the second stages be drifted into a "salvage yard" orbit and maybe station keep for a while? Obviously not launches with different inclinations than the salvage yard, but launches to the ISS perhaps? What sort of device/equipment would be needed at the salvage yard to attach and lock the orbiting stages into formation? Do the second stages fall within the 50 ton down mass limit? Seems I recall they mass less than half of that.Why do you want to salvage them? Assuming the BFR becomes operational with its extreme payload capability, what possible use could they have?If the BFR doesn't have a LAS, F9 would be needed for manned NASA flights.