Author Topic: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism  (Read 87121 times)

Offline john smith 19

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #280 on: 08/14/2018 09:28 pm »
You're talking about self sufficiency, but you haven't shown it is a condition for having economic worth.

Mars assets will be owned by terrestrians. As Mars industry grows, there will be more to own, and the value of things will be established by supply and demand. (Mostly on Earth initially)
Excuse me, but what do you think is going to drive that growth?
Quote from: meekGee
The terrestrians will pay for shipping things to Mars since the growth of industry is what's making them richer.
And this is being paid for with what exactly?

Quote from: meekGee
The trick is that it's not a steady-state zero-sum economy, but one that's growing in value from zero to an entire planet's worth.
Except there are no reasons to be there in the first place and the gravity well severely limits the opportunities for stuff you can trade back to Earth profitably. The only things that look plausible being.

1) Videos about doing stuff on Mars
2) Making stuff on Mars specifically to carry a "Made on Mars" logo
3) Long term care for older people in a low gravity environment.

Again assuming SX meets Musks target price of $130/Kg that's a $5.0-6.5 candy bar.
Quote from: meekGee
All you need are mechanisms to record and enforce ownership - of land, of property, of stock... 

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And this relates to BFR how?
So the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."

Not "everything". If you need to import literally everything, there's no point in going. Mars has plenty of resources (e.g. gravity, energy sources, heat sinks, atmosphere, metals, minerals, water, land). All you need to import is the technology to utilize them - which was also true everywhere else that has ever been colonized. After a while, and given the effort required for importing, probably not that long a while, much of the technology needed to utilize local resources will also be produced locally. This also happened in many other places that have been colonized.
I tend to make qualified statements.

That text in round brackets was a qualification.

Let me emphasize it again.
Quote
unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient
Personally I think the settlers would be crazy not to develop a plan to become as self sufficient as far as possible as quickly as possible,  starting with food, air and water, as you cannot turn MRE's into air.   :(

The alternative is to rely solely on Earth supplied housing, food and equipment.

Making Mars the most expensive, and uncomfortable welfare hotel the Solar System.  :(

I don't think anyone wants that.  :(

« Last Edit: 08/14/2018 09:33 pm by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline CuddlyRocket

Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #281 on: 08/14/2018 09:29 pm »
what in your view is "the economic product" that Mars has to turn it into something that makes it economically lucrative to colonize?  I dont see one but curious
Land. But it's worthless, I hear you say! Not when it's got colonists on it or a resource for them to extract, I respond. Capital gains, capital gains!

so why is Alaska so badly populated?  It is far easier to live there than on Mars...the land is near free...and yet there are less people there then in my subdivision in Houston...and I live on a farm

there are more resources in Alaska that a person with a strong back adn simple tools can get to

whats the deal?

Well, there's roughly 740,000 growing at 3.9% a year, which would be a pretty ambitious target for a Mars colony. It's obvious that the vast majority of people won't want to move to Mars, just as it's obvious the vast majority of Americans don't want to move to Alaska. But some will and the population will increase. If it ever got to 740,000, there would certainly be capital gains on whoever owned the land (or rights of occupation and extraction).

Offline meekGee

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #282 on: 08/14/2018 09:48 pm »
You're talking about self sufficiency, but you haven't shown it is a condition for having economic worth.

Mars assets will be owned by terrestrians. As Mars industry grows, there will be more to own, and the value of things will be established by supply and demand. (Mostly on Earth initially)
Excuse me, but what do you think is going to drive that growth?


The desire to profit, like any investment


Quote from: meekGee
The terrestrians will pay for shipping things to Mars since the growth of industry is what's making them richer.
And this is being paid for with what exactly?


Dollar, like any investment



Quote from: meekGee
The trick is that it's not a steady-state zero-sum economy, but one that's growing in value from zero to an entire planet's worth.
Except there are no reasons to be there in the first place and the gravity well severely limits the opportunities for stuff you can trade back to Earth profitably. The only things that look plausible being.


1) Videos about doing stuff on Mars
2) Making stuff on Mars specifically to carry a "Made on Mars" logo
3) Long term care for older people in a low gravity environment.


Again, there's no need to trade back anything.
Terrestrial people invest, using terrestrial dollars, in an economy that is local to Mars, because they think it will be worth more later.  Worth, as in supply and demand.  Like any investment.

...  The rest is redundant so not quoting.
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Offline john smith 19

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #283 on: 08/14/2018 09:58 pm »
For those people who want to discuss what might be involved to generate a Mars Export Economy, try here

For those talking about the wider issues of Mars settlement try here

The last posts have been fascinating, but honestly, do they really have much to do with BFR?

MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline meekGee

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #284 on: 08/15/2018 12:28 am »
what in your view is "the economic product" that Mars has to turn it into something that makes it economically lucrative to colonize?  I dont see one but curious
Land. But it's worthless, I hear you say! Not when it's got colonists on it or a resource for them to extract, I respond. Capital gains, capital gains!

so why is Alaska so badly populated?  It is far easier to live there than on Mars...the land is near free...and yet there are less people there then in my subdivision in Houston...and I live on a farm

there are more resources in Alaska that a person with a strong back adn simple tools can get to

whats the deal?
Why go so far?   There are a gazillion empty acres  along the pacific coastline, and yet people live in Phoenix (no offense, Phoenix people!)

It just shows that economic centers sustain themselves.  When Phoenix was growing, you invested in a business (with non-Phoenix dollars) because you thought that business will grow.  And now Phoenix as a whole has a financial value, which did not exist beforehand.




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« Last Edit: 08/15/2018 01:19 am by meekGee »
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Offline TripleSeven

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #285 on: 08/15/2018 12:42 am »
So the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."

Not "everything". If you need to import literally everything, there's no point in going. Mars has plenty of resources (e.g. gravity, energy sources, heat sinks, atmosphere, metals, minerals, water, land). All you need to import is the technology to utilize them - which was also true everywhere else that has ever been colonized. After a while, and given the effort required for importing, probably not that long a while, much of the technology needed to utilize local resources will also be produced locally. This also happened in many other places that have been colonized.

it is essentially everything.  Mars may have resources but you cannot get to them with the technology that "an ordinary" citizen could sale all their belongings get on the Mayflower and have a reasonable chance at survival

and if you run out of any of them, you are toast...ok your rifle breaks and you cannot get a part until the next boat comes, you could fish, or eat the plants you have planted ...but if the framastam on your spacesuit breaks when you run out of spares, you are well out of luck.  and the people who can afford to "self equip" are not the ones who are going to go


The Martian cured this problem because duct tape could fix anything as could this magic transparent material that somehow can handle a lot of PSID

and if you want to transport the stuff to make that framastam there...then well its more money and more energy and you cannot recreate the industrial base of the United States one BFR at a time

I was on a CVN for a bit...when the AO's came well it was a time of rejoicing because if we didnt get an AO we couldnt fly the planes, her support ships could not steam (they use kerosene ) and we ran out of food.  the ship had amazing repair shops but in the end they could not replicate the stuff at Pearl...(or Norfolk) and...thats the big difference here

I am not saying it cannot be done...but like keeping the fleet at sea..someone is going to have to be induced to pay for it...unless the Martian colony figures out something that Earth has to have from them...that balances out the price

without having first demonstrated that in LEO or on the Moon...color me skeptical  :)

LEO and the Moon don't have most of those resources, they require substantially more imports than Mars. They aren't any better a place to demonstrate colonization.

The reason an ordinary citizen can't self-equip for Mars now is that most of the technology isn't ready in a form that can be bought off the shelf, and even if it were, a ticket to Mars would cost $10 billion. SpaceX and others are working on resolving those two issues.

And half the people on the Mayflower died within 2-3 months...

I doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony. 

Offline TripleSeven

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #286 on: 08/15/2018 12:48 am »
Coastal Ron

"I will say though, that with the modern fundraising systems we have today, that raising money for Mars colonization won't be too hard if done properly. People are used to giving for all different reasons, and if people do believe that Musk is trying to save humanity in case of a future calamity on Earth, then money will pour in."

I dont agree with that but hopefully you are correct..



"Humans are programmed to respond to open skies, and though you can't breath without assistance on the surface of Mars, it's a lot more hospitable than LEO or our Moon."

How? about the same things will kill you in all three places


Offline meekGee

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #287 on: 08/15/2018 01:21 am »
So the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."

Not "everything". If you need to import literally everything, there's no point in going. Mars has plenty of resources (e.g. gravity, energy sources, heat sinks, atmosphere, metals, minerals, water, land). All you need to import is the technology to utilize them - which was also true everywhere else that has ever been colonized. After a while, and given the effort required for importing, probably not that long a while, much of the technology needed to utilize local resources will also be produced locally. This also happened in many other places that have been colonized.

it is essentially everything.  Mars may have resources but you cannot get to them with the technology that "an ordinary" citizen could sale all their belongings get on the Mayflower and have a reasonable chance at survival

and if you run out of any of them, you are toast...ok your rifle breaks and you cannot get a part until the next boat comes, you could fish, or eat the plants you have planted ...but if the framastam on your spacesuit breaks when you run out of spares, you are well out of luck.  and the people who can afford to "self equip" are not the ones who are going to go


The Martian cured this problem because duct tape could fix anything as could this magic transparent material that somehow can handle a lot of PSID

and if you want to transport the stuff to make that framastam there...then well its more money and more energy and you cannot recreate the industrial base of the United States one BFR at a time

I was on a CVN for a bit...when the AO's came well it was a time of rejoicing because if we didnt get an AO we couldnt fly the planes, her support ships could not steam (they use kerosene ) and we ran out of food.  the ship had amazing repair shops but in the end they could not replicate the stuff at Pearl...(or Norfolk) and...thats the big difference here

I am not saying it cannot be done...but like keeping the fleet at sea..someone is going to have to be induced to pay for it...unless the Martian colony figures out something that Earth has to have from them...that balances out the price

without having first demonstrated that in LEO or on the Moon...color me skeptical  :)

LEO and the Moon don't have most of those resources, they require substantially more imports than Mars. They aren't any better a place to demonstrate colonization.

The reason an ordinary citizen can't self-equip for Mars now is that most of the technology isn't ready in a form that can be bought off the shelf, and even if it were, a ticket to Mars would cost $10 billion. SpaceX and others are working on resolving those two issues.

And half the people on the Mayflower died within 2-3 months...

I doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony.

Why would anyone expect to?  I bet anything that 100 years from now Mars won't be self-sufficient.  But it'll grow its own food, mine its own metals and make its own concrete, glass and plastics.
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Offline oiorionsbelt

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #288 on: 08/15/2018 02:35 am »


I doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony.

Why would anyone expect to?  I bet anything that 100 years from now Mars won't be self-sufficient.  But it'll grow its own food, mine its own metals and make its own concrete, glass and plastics.
And it'll have a gas station.

Offline meekGee

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #289 on: 08/15/2018 03:17 am »


I doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony.

Why would anyone expect to?  I bet anything that 100 years from now Mars won't be self-sufficient.  But it'll grow its own food, mine its own metals and make its own concrete, glass and plastics.
And it'll have a gas station.
Yeah well I think the gas station will come first.  It's the attached 24/7 Go-Mart that will take a while.

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #290 on: 08/15/2018 03:24 am »
So the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."

Not "everything". If you need to import literally everything, there's no point in going. Mars has plenty of resources (e.g. gravity, energy sources, heat sinks, atmosphere, metals, minerals, water, land). All you need to import is the technology to utilize them - which was also true everywhere else that has ever been colonized. After a while, and given the effort required for importing, probably not that long a while, much of the technology needed to utilize local resources will also be produced locally. This also happened in many other places that have been colonized.

it is essentially everything.  Mars may have resources but you cannot get to them with the technology that "an ordinary" citizen could sale all their belongings get on the Mayflower and have a reasonable chance at survival

and if you run out of any of them, you are toast...ok your rifle breaks and you cannot get a part until the next boat comes, you could fish, or eat the plants you have planted ...but if the framastam on your spacesuit breaks when you run out of spares, you are well out of luck.  and the people who can afford to "self equip" are not the ones who are going to go


The Martian cured this problem because duct tape could fix anything as could this magic transparent material that somehow can handle a lot of PSID

and if you want to transport the stuff to make that framastam there...then well its more money and more energy and you cannot recreate the industrial base of the United States one BFR at a time

I was on a CVN for a bit...when the AO's came well it was a time of rejoicing because if we didnt get an AO we couldnt fly the planes, her support ships could not steam (they use kerosene ) and we ran out of food.  the ship had amazing repair shops but in the end they could not replicate the stuff at Pearl...(or Norfolk) and...thats the big difference here

I am not saying it cannot be done...but like keeping the fleet at sea..someone is going to have to be induced to pay for it...unless the Martian colony figures out something that Earth has to have from them...that balances out the price

without having first demonstrated that in LEO or on the Moon...color me skeptical  :)

LEO and the Moon don't have most of those resources, they require substantially more imports than Mars. They aren't any better a place to demonstrate colonization.

The reason an ordinary citizen can't self-equip for Mars now is that most of the technology isn't ready in a form that can be bought off the shelf, and even if it were, a ticket to Mars would cost $10 billion. SpaceX and others are working on resolving those two issues.

And half the people on the Mayflower died within 2-3 months...

I doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony.
Meh, not that hard.
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Online wannamoonbase

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #291 on: 08/15/2018 03:47 am »
Meh, not that hard.

It would be an interesting exercise to work backward from that goal of an average person buying what is needed to get to and live on Mars and see what is needed.

I doubt it's going to happen.  But in 1918 no one have bet that we'd be 49 years past the first moon landing.

Plus with SkyNet and the rise of machines on it's way, it could happen very quickly.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #292 on: 08/15/2018 04:53 am »
I will say though, that with the modern fundraising systems we have today, that raising money for Mars colonization won't be too hard if done properly. People are used to giving for all different reasons, and if people do believe that Musk is trying to save humanity in case of a future calamity on Earth, then money will pour in.

I dont agree with that but hopefully you are correct..

History is rife with examples of crowdfunding for inspirational causes. The Statue of Liberty is good example of what was possible 236 years ago, and a current Facebook fundraiser to help one family get reunited with their child after they were separated at the U.S. border - the original goal was $1,500, and they are now over $20M and still growing.

We all know about Kickstarter and other crowdfunding platforms, plus now there is Patreon, which was created to allow "artists and creators to get sustainable income and connect with fans".

Then there are things called a "charitable trust", which is "an irrevocable trust established for charitable purposes".

And last but not least, a volunteer effort by billionaires called "The Giving Pledge", which "is a campaign to encourage wealthy people to contribute a majority of their wealth to philanthropic causes".

So the bottom line here is that humans have a long history is donating to what they consider to be "worthy causes". And since in my mind the colonization of Mars is a humanitarian effort, I think there will be many funding channels that will be created, focused on many different needs for a Mars colony.

Quote
Quote
Humans are programmed to respond to open skies, and though you can't breath without assistance on the surface of Mars, it's a lot more hospitable than LEO or our Moon.

How? about the same things will kill you in all three places

Sure. But my point is that Mars is a more desirable place to colonize than LEO or the Moon - even though they are far closer to Earth.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline meekGee

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #293 on: 08/15/2018 04:54 am »
Meh, not that hard.

It would be an interesting exercise to work backward from that goal of an average person buying what is needed to get to and live on Mars and see what is needed.

I doubt it's going to happen.  But in 1918 no one have bet that we'd be 49 years past the first moon landing.

Plus with SkyNet and the rise of machines on it's way, it could happen very quickly.
For example, I don't know if for a population of 100,000 - 1,000,000, it is practical to manufacture all pharmacudicals locally.

Some will be imported and stocked, maybe some manufactured, and some will simply not be available.

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Offline colbourne

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #294 on: 08/16/2018 04:42 am »
While trade with Earth is possible, Mars will always be reliant on Earth for most complicated light weight items, such as pharmaceuticals and electronics. It would make no sense to dedicate such a large part of the Mars infrastructure to trying to compete with Earth on items that are not totally essential to life.

What should happen on Mars is they set them selves up, so that if trade becomes impossible, the basics of life can be maintained,  and they have the necessary starting point to continue the expansion and advancement of their base. This will be good psychologically as well, for the colonists, knowing they will not automatically die, as the result of a failure of Earth civilisation.
The thread Steam Punk Mars (Self Sufficient Survival through Low Tech) under Missions to Mars (HSF)

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=45772.0

tries to answer what is required to achieve these aims.

Experiments can be performed on Earth to determine what  the minimum base, with this potential would be. Some simple items might be key to achieving this goal. Even if never used, the designs and manufacturing processes for these items can be produced. e.g. Outdoor suits, air locks, power generation, lighting, pressure resistant transparent sheets for agriculture.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #295 on: 08/16/2018 02:00 pm »
Meh, not that hard.

It would be an interesting exercise to work backward from that goal of an average person buying what is needed to get to and live on Mars and see what is needed.

I doubt it's going to happen.  But in 1918 no one have bet that we'd be 49 years past the first moon landing.

Plus with SkyNet and the rise of machines on it's way, it could happen very quickly.
For example, I don't know if for a population of 100,000 - 1,000,000, it is practical to manufacture all pharmacudicals locally.

Some will be imported and stocked, maybe some manufactured, and some will simply not be available.

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Pharmaceuticals are not nearly as hard to make as pharmaceutical companies make it out to be. Anarchists and illicit drug producers prove that: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/43pngb/how-to-make-your-own-medicine-four-thieves-vinegar-collective

A sufficiently equipped university lab can produce most of these things...
(Maybe not in the quality and quantity you'd like, but perhaps sufficient for survival.)
« Last Edit: 08/16/2018 02:03 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline spacenut

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #296 on: 08/16/2018 02:35 pm »
Yes, anything can be made at home with the right equipment and materials.  I made gunpowder in high school before I even took chemistry.  Guns can be made in any machine shop.  TNT can be made with household materials.  Making meds on Mars shouldn't be too hard, especially if greenhouses get going and medicinal plants are grown.  Hydrocarbon molecule chains can be made. 

Everything needed for manufacturing anything can be taken to Mars before colonists arrive.  It will take time to build up, but it is possible.  Build in redundancy, by having twice as much equipment, greenhouses, living areas, manufacturing areas,etc, in case of accidents.  Then have the ability to make copies. 

In the long run Mars colony might be able to bring materials from the asteroids or even our moon easier than from earth. 

I hope that both O'Neill colonies near the moon as well as Mars colonies could be built.  Maybe SpaceX concentrating on Mars while Blue Origin concentrates of building an O'Neill colony somewhere in cis-lunar space within the next 50 years. 

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #297 on: 08/16/2018 02:37 pm »
Meh, not that hard.

It would be an interesting exercise to work backward from that goal of an average person buying what is needed to get to and live on Mars and see what is needed.

I doubt it's going to happen.  But in 1918 no one have bet that we'd be 49 years past the first moon landing.

Plus with SkyNet and the rise of machines on it's way, it could happen very quickly.
For example, I don't know if for a population of 100,000 - 1,000,000, it is practical to manufacture all pharmacudicals locally.

Some will be imported and stocked, maybe some manufactured, and some will simply not be available.

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Pharmaceuticals are not nearly as hard to make as pharmaceutical companies make it out to be. Anarchists and illicit drug producers prove that: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/43pngb/how-to-make-your-own-medicine-four-thieves-vinegar-collective

A sufficiently equipped university lab can produce most of these things...
(Maybe not in the quality and quantity you'd like, but perhaps sufficient for survival.)
They can produce some limited types and amount, but it takes a lot of lab a lot of time to produce one batch of anything..

My point tho is that Mars does not have to stop importing, or even balance import with export, in order to be a viable economy - not as long as its economy is growing.

Once it has stopped growing, it will be sufficiently large to be a closed system just like Earth.

However, if Mars becomes the base for Asteroid access, its economy might continue to grow for a very long time

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #298 on: 08/16/2018 05:54 pm »
I wonder if there are things that would be dramatically easier or superior when produced in 1/3 G compared to 1G?

Offline speedevil

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Re: BFR and a bit of (hopefully) helpful scepticism
« Reply #299 on: 08/16/2018 07:48 pm »
I wonder if there are things that would be dramatically easier or superior when produced in 1/3 G compared to 1G?
Freefall towers are already used a little in manufacturing, for any process that can complete in the time it takes to fall to the bottom.

If there is anything that would really benefit from 1s or so of 1/3g, we don't know of it, or that manufacturing process would be being used.

The list of things that are lots better in 0G are small, and in some ways shrinking, as protein crystallography gets less useful as cryo-EM, protein mass spectrometry and other techniques bypass the need for it.

* Price of over $100/kg
* 1/3g for very long periods helps
* Cannot be manufactured in LEO on a centrifuge.
* Needs limited equipment to make.

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