You're talking about self sufficiency, but you haven't shown it is a condition for having economic worth.Mars assets will be owned by terrestrians. As Mars industry grows, there will be more to own, and the value of things will be established by supply and demand. (Mostly on Earth initially)
The terrestrians will pay for shipping things to Mars since the growth of industry is what's making them richer.
The trick is that it's not a steady-state zero-sum economy, but one that's growing in value from zero to an entire planet's worth.
All you need are mechanisms to record and enforce ownership - of land, of property, of stock... -----ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
Quote from: john smith 19 on 08/13/2018 06:58 amSo the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."Not "everything". If you need to import literally everything, there's no point in going. Mars has plenty of resources (e.g. gravity, energy sources, heat sinks, atmosphere, metals, minerals, water, land). All you need to import is the technology to utilize them - which was also true everywhere else that has ever been colonized. After a while, and given the effort required for importing, probably not that long a while, much of the technology needed to utilize local resources will also be produced locally. This also happened in many other places that have been colonized.
So the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."
unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient
Quote from: CuddlyRocket on 08/12/2018 11:16 pmQuote from: TripleSeven on 08/12/2018 03:34 pmwhat in your view is "the economic product" that Mars has to turn it into something that makes it economically lucrative to colonize? I dont see one but curiousLand. But it's worthless, I hear you say! Not when it's got colonists on it or a resource for them to extract, I respond. Capital gains, capital gains!so why is Alaska so badly populated? It is far easier to live there than on Mars...the land is near free...and yet there are less people there then in my subdivision in Houston...and I live on a farmthere are more resources in Alaska that a person with a strong back adn simple tools can get towhats the deal?
Quote from: TripleSeven on 08/12/2018 03:34 pmwhat in your view is "the economic product" that Mars has to turn it into something that makes it economically lucrative to colonize? I dont see one but curiousLand. But it's worthless, I hear you say! Not when it's got colonists on it or a resource for them to extract, I respond. Capital gains, capital gains!
what in your view is "the economic product" that Mars has to turn it into something that makes it economically lucrative to colonize? I dont see one but curious
Quote from: meekGee on 08/13/2018 09:41 amYou're talking about self sufficiency, but you haven't shown it is a condition for having economic worth.Mars assets will be owned by terrestrians. As Mars industry grows, there will be more to own, and the value of things will be established by supply and demand. (Mostly on Earth initially)Excuse me, but what do you think is going to drive that growth?
Quote from: meekGeeThe terrestrians will pay for shipping things to Mars since the growth of industry is what's making them richer.And this is being paid for with what exactly?
Quote from: meekGeeThe trick is that it's not a steady-state zero-sum economy, but one that's growing in value from zero to an entire planet's worth.Except there are no reasons to be there in the first place and the gravity well severely limits the opportunities for stuff you can trade back to Earth profitably. The only things that look plausible being.1) Videos about doing stuff on Mars2) Making stuff on Mars specifically to carry a "Made on Mars" logo3) Long term care for older people in a low gravity environment.
Quote from: TripleSeven on 08/13/2018 01:26 pmQuote from: envy887 on 08/13/2018 01:13 pmQuote from: john smith 19 on 08/13/2018 06:58 amSo the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."Not "everything". If you need to import literally everything, there's no point in going. Mars has plenty of resources (e.g. gravity, energy sources, heat sinks, atmosphere, metals, minerals, water, land). All you need to import is the technology to utilize them - which was also true everywhere else that has ever been colonized. After a while, and given the effort required for importing, probably not that long a while, much of the technology needed to utilize local resources will also be produced locally. This also happened in many other places that have been colonized.it is essentially everything. Mars may have resources but you cannot get to them with the technology that "an ordinary" citizen could sale all their belongings get on the Mayflower and have a reasonable chance at survivaland if you run out of any of them, you are toast...ok your rifle breaks and you cannot get a part until the next boat comes, you could fish, or eat the plants you have planted ...but if the framastam on your spacesuit breaks when you run out of spares, you are well out of luck. and the people who can afford to "self equip" are not the ones who are going to goThe Martian cured this problem because duct tape could fix anything as could this magic transparent material that somehow can handle a lot of PSIDand if you want to transport the stuff to make that framastam there...then well its more money and more energy and you cannot recreate the industrial base of the United States one BFR at a timeI was on a CVN for a bit...when the AO's came well it was a time of rejoicing because if we didnt get an AO we couldnt fly the planes, her support ships could not steam (they use kerosene ) and we ran out of food. the ship had amazing repair shops but in the end they could not replicate the stuff at Pearl...(or Norfolk) and...thats the big difference hereI am not saying it cannot be done...but like keeping the fleet at sea..someone is going to have to be induced to pay for it...unless the Martian colony figures out something that Earth has to have from them...that balances out the pricewithout having first demonstrated that in LEO or on the Moon...color me skeptical LEO and the Moon don't have most of those resources, they require substantially more imports than Mars. They aren't any better a place to demonstrate colonization.The reason an ordinary citizen can't self-equip for Mars now is that most of the technology isn't ready in a form that can be bought off the shelf, and even if it were, a ticket to Mars would cost $10 billion. SpaceX and others are working on resolving those two issues.And half the people on the Mayflower died within 2-3 months...
Quote from: envy887 on 08/13/2018 01:13 pmQuote from: john smith 19 on 08/13/2018 06:58 amSo the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."Not "everything". If you need to import literally everything, there's no point in going. Mars has plenty of resources (e.g. gravity, energy sources, heat sinks, atmosphere, metals, minerals, water, land). All you need to import is the technology to utilize them - which was also true everywhere else that has ever been colonized. After a while, and given the effort required for importing, probably not that long a while, much of the technology needed to utilize local resources will also be produced locally. This also happened in many other places that have been colonized.it is essentially everything. Mars may have resources but you cannot get to them with the technology that "an ordinary" citizen could sale all their belongings get on the Mayflower and have a reasonable chance at survivaland if you run out of any of them, you are toast...ok your rifle breaks and you cannot get a part until the next boat comes, you could fish, or eat the plants you have planted ...but if the framastam on your spacesuit breaks when you run out of spares, you are well out of luck. and the people who can afford to "self equip" are not the ones who are going to goThe Martian cured this problem because duct tape could fix anything as could this magic transparent material that somehow can handle a lot of PSIDand if you want to transport the stuff to make that framastam there...then well its more money and more energy and you cannot recreate the industrial base of the United States one BFR at a timeI was on a CVN for a bit...when the AO's came well it was a time of rejoicing because if we didnt get an AO we couldnt fly the planes, her support ships could not steam (they use kerosene ) and we ran out of food. the ship had amazing repair shops but in the end they could not replicate the stuff at Pearl...(or Norfolk) and...thats the big difference hereI am not saying it cannot be done...but like keeping the fleet at sea..someone is going to have to be induced to pay for it...unless the Martian colony figures out something that Earth has to have from them...that balances out the pricewithout having first demonstrated that in LEO or on the Moon...color me skeptical
Quote from: envy887 on 08/13/2018 01:54 pmQuote from: TripleSeven on 08/13/2018 01:26 pmQuote from: envy887 on 08/13/2018 01:13 pmQuote from: john smith 19 on 08/13/2018 06:58 amSo the problem is (as it's always been) what does Mars produce that can be exported to Earth to pay for the things it needs, because during at least the first century (unless there is a vigorous effort to become self sufficient) the answer is "everything."Not "everything". If you need to import literally everything, there's no point in going. Mars has plenty of resources (e.g. gravity, energy sources, heat sinks, atmosphere, metals, minerals, water, land). All you need to import is the technology to utilize them - which was also true everywhere else that has ever been colonized. After a while, and given the effort required for importing, probably not that long a while, much of the technology needed to utilize local resources will also be produced locally. This also happened in many other places that have been colonized.it is essentially everything. Mars may have resources but you cannot get to them with the technology that "an ordinary" citizen could sale all their belongings get on the Mayflower and have a reasonable chance at survivaland if you run out of any of them, you are toast...ok your rifle breaks and you cannot get a part until the next boat comes, you could fish, or eat the plants you have planted ...but if the framastam on your spacesuit breaks when you run out of spares, you are well out of luck. and the people who can afford to "self equip" are not the ones who are going to goThe Martian cured this problem because duct tape could fix anything as could this magic transparent material that somehow can handle a lot of PSIDand if you want to transport the stuff to make that framastam there...then well its more money and more energy and you cannot recreate the industrial base of the United States one BFR at a timeI was on a CVN for a bit...when the AO's came well it was a time of rejoicing because if we didnt get an AO we couldnt fly the planes, her support ships could not steam (they use kerosene ) and we ran out of food. the ship had amazing repair shops but in the end they could not replicate the stuff at Pearl...(or Norfolk) and...thats the big difference hereI am not saying it cannot be done...but like keeping the fleet at sea..someone is going to have to be induced to pay for it...unless the Martian colony figures out something that Earth has to have from them...that balances out the pricewithout having first demonstrated that in LEO or on the Moon...color me skeptical LEO and the Moon don't have most of those resources, they require substantially more imports than Mars. They aren't any better a place to demonstrate colonization.The reason an ordinary citizen can't self-equip for Mars now is that most of the technology isn't ready in a form that can be bought off the shelf, and even if it were, a ticket to Mars would cost $10 billion. SpaceX and others are working on resolving those two issues.And half the people on the Mayflower died within 2-3 months...I doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony.
Quote from: TripleSeven on 08/15/2018 12:42 amI doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony. Why would anyone expect to? I bet anything that 100 years from now Mars won't be self-sufficient. But it'll grow its own food, mine its own metals and make its own concrete, glass and plastics.
I doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony.
Quote from: meekGee on 08/15/2018 01:21 amQuote from: TripleSeven on 08/15/2018 12:42 amI doubt the day comes in 100 years where a person could buy all the equipment needed to survive in a mars colony. Why would anyone expect to? I bet anything that 100 years from now Mars won't be self-sufficient. But it'll grow its own food, mine its own metals and make its own concrete, glass and plastics. And it'll have a gas station.
Meh, not that hard.
Quote from: Coastal Ron on 08/14/2018 02:32 amI will say though, that with the modern fundraising systems we have today, that raising money for Mars colonization won't be too hard if done properly. People are used to giving for all different reasons, and if people do believe that Musk is trying to save humanity in case of a future calamity on Earth, then money will pour in.I dont agree with that but hopefully you are correct..
I will say though, that with the modern fundraising systems we have today, that raising money for Mars colonization won't be too hard if done properly. People are used to giving for all different reasons, and if people do believe that Musk is trying to save humanity in case of a future calamity on Earth, then money will pour in.
QuoteHumans are programmed to respond to open skies, and though you can't breath without assistance on the surface of Mars, it's a lot more hospitable than LEO or our Moon.How? about the same things will kill you in all three places
Humans are programmed to respond to open skies, and though you can't breath without assistance on the surface of Mars, it's a lot more hospitable than LEO or our Moon.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 08/15/2018 03:24 amMeh, not that hard.It would be an interesting exercise to work backward from that goal of an average person buying what is needed to get to and live on Mars and see what is needed.I doubt it's going to happen. But in 1918 no one have bet that we'd be 49 years past the first moon landing.Plus with SkyNet and the rise of machines on it's way, it could happen very quickly.
Quote from: wannamoonbase on 08/15/2018 03:47 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 08/15/2018 03:24 amMeh, not that hard.It would be an interesting exercise to work backward from that goal of an average person buying what is needed to get to and live on Mars and see what is needed.I doubt it's going to happen. But in 1918 no one have bet that we'd be 49 years past the first moon landing.Plus with SkyNet and the rise of machines on it's way, it could happen very quickly.For example, I don't know if for a population of 100,000 - 1,000,000, it is practical to manufacture all pharmacudicals locally.Some will be imported and stocked, maybe some manufactured, and some will simply not be available.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
Quote from: meekGee on 08/15/2018 04:54 amQuote from: wannamoonbase on 08/15/2018 03:47 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 08/15/2018 03:24 amMeh, not that hard.It would be an interesting exercise to work backward from that goal of an average person buying what is needed to get to and live on Mars and see what is needed.I doubt it's going to happen. But in 1918 no one have bet that we'd be 49 years past the first moon landing.Plus with SkyNet and the rise of machines on it's way, it could happen very quickly.For example, I don't know if for a population of 100,000 - 1,000,000, it is practical to manufacture all pharmacudicals locally.Some will be imported and stocked, maybe some manufactured, and some will simply not be available.-----ABCD: Always Be Counting DownPharmaceuticals are not nearly as hard to make as pharmaceutical companies make it out to be. Anarchists and illicit drug producers prove that: https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/article/43pngb/how-to-make-your-own-medicine-four-thieves-vinegar-collectiveA sufficiently equipped university lab can produce most of these things... (Maybe not in the quality and quantity you'd like, but perhaps sufficient for survival.)
I wonder if there are things that would be dramatically easier or superior when produced in 1/3 G compared to 1G?