Quote from: Robotbeat on 07/29/2018 03:25 amBTW, just to repeat this, the Sept. '89 flare would be reduced to WELL below acute levels by Mars' atmosphere (on average greater than 40g/cm^2 at low altitude, and using CO2 which is a much better shielding material than aluminum) and by the greater distance the flare has to travel.Guo et al. 2018 does lay it out rather plainly: the flare delivered ~ 27 mGy/day, down at Gale Crater elevation.You disagree, but unless you spot a big problem with Guo's work, that's the dosage rate to be addressed.Have you read the paper, btw? Your posts seem to ignore it.
BTW, just to repeat this, the Sept. '89 flare would be reduced to WELL below acute levels by Mars' atmosphere (on average greater than 40g/cm^2 at low altitude, and using CO2 which is a much better shielding material than aluminum) and by the greater distance the flare has to travel.
Quote from: LMT on 07/29/2018 04:57 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 07/29/2018 03:25 amBTW, just to repeat this, the Sept. '89 flare would be reduced to WELL below acute levels by Mars' atmosphere (on average greater than 40g/cm^2 at low altitude, and using CO2 which is a much better shielding material than aluminum) and by the greater distance the flare has to travel.Guo et al. 2018 does lay it out rather plainly: the flare delivered ~ 27 mGy/day, down at Gale Crater elevation.You disagree, but unless you spot a big problem with Guo's work, that's the dosage rate to be addressed.Have you read the paper, btw? Your posts seem to ignore it.I have now. Seems to agree with my earlier post (<10mSv for the Sep89 event, far below any acute effects), at least roughly speaking. Though I will note I believe he's still using a 1D code (or at least taking the greater path through the atmosphere into account), and I can't find evidence he's not. That makes a huge difference as the vast majority of the radiation will be coming in from a greater angle. It makes almost a factor of 2 difference in average shielding level.edit:If I'm reading this chart correctly (page 24), it appears the surface dose for the SEP89 event is about 2.3*10^3 microSv (trying to measure a value on a logarithmic graph is tricky), or 2.3mSv, which is less than a head CT scan (given the handy comparison in the chart). That makes sense, given my previous chart and the increased effectiveness of CO2. That probably also means he's using a proper angle for the radiation path.If the worst case flare 2 hour exposure every few decades is just a CT scan on the surface, it's really not a problem....but notice that in deep space, the dose is "severe poisoning", i.e. you may die in short order.
The meeting is expected to include an overview of the spaceflight capabilities that SpaceX is developing with the Big Falcon rocket and spaceship, which Musk has previously outlined at length during international aerospace meetings in 2016 and 2017. Discussion topics will focus on how best to support hundreds of humans living on Mars, such as accessing natural resources there that will lead to a sustainable outpost.
Realistically, when could that view turn from a render into a real photograph? "I need a ray of hope about the future" - (c) Gaius Baltar, former President of the Twelve Colonies.
Probably 2028 for a base to be built
Wow - 2028 is a pretty tight timeline - even though some will say that's just "Elon time".Would base-building essentially commence with the first crewed landing?What would have to be accomplished first, to get to that point?
The exact year doesn't matter.The important bit is that Musk believes that this level of base is within the immediate plan - he sees a way to build and finance it.If 2028 depends on a 2022 first trip, and if the date means "hardware for the base delivered to the surface", then this base was delivered on synod 4.We already know the first two have 2 and 4 ships, and that none of the ships will fly back until synod 6, and so synod 8 is still mostly new ships.This to me means he intends to build LOTS of ships. If I could ever sneak a question in, it would be "how many ships/yr would the factory be producing in the coming years"-----ABCD: Always Be Counting Down
Hope & I travelled to Boca Chica yesterday to meet with Elon Musk. He explained #SpaceX’s extraordinary plan to begin the settlement of Mars,which was very much in evidence as hundreds of people were lined up outside to join his team building Starships. #Mars #Space #MarsSociety
We asked what the #MarsSociety could do to help, and he told us: Spread the word on the unlimited future opened by making humanity spacefaring.We will begin next week, by announcing an international contest to design a 1 million person #Mars colony.#SpaceX #NASA #Space #Science
Here’s a teasetwitter.com/robert_zubrin/status/1225876236477620225QuoteHope & I travelled to Boca Chica yesterday to meet with Elon Musk. He explained #SpaceX’s extraordinary plan to begin the settlement of Mars,which was very much in evidence as hundreds of people were lined up outside to join his team building Starships. #Mars #Space #MarsSocietyhttps://twitter.com/robert_zubrin/status/1225876531681153024QuoteWe asked what the #MarsSociety could do to help, and he told us: Spread the word on the unlimited future opened by making humanity spacefaring.We will begin next week, by announcing an international contest to design a 1 million person #Mars colony.#SpaceX #NASA #Space #Science
My article about my observations about @elonmusk’s plans to settle Mars following our recent meeting in Boca Chica was just published by National Review. @SciGuySpace @jeff_foust #Mars #Space #Science #NASA #SpaceX #MarsSociety
Elon Musk’s Plan to Settle MarsBy ROBERT ZUBRIN February 22, 2020 4:30 AMLast week my wife Hope and I traveled to Boca Chica, Texas, to meet with Elon Musk. While we talked inside the SpaceX onsite headquarters, a mariachi band played outside, providing entertainment for long lines of people queued up to apply for multiple categories of jobs building craft to take humans to Mars. Hundreds were already hired and at work in the complex. Soon there will be thousands.Musk calls his design the “Starship.” It’s a methane/oxygen-driven, stainless-steel, two-stage-to-orbit rocket with a payload capacity equal to the Saturn V booster that sent Apollo astronauts to the Moon. The Saturn V, however, was expendable, with each unit destroyed in the course of a single use. Starship will be fully reusable, like an airliner, and therefore promises a radical reduction in payload-delivery costs.
Quote from: FutureSpaceTourist on 02/07/2020 07:24 pmHere’s a teasetwitter.com/robert_zubrin/status/1225876236477620225QuoteHope & I travelled to Boca Chica yesterday to meet with Elon Musk. He explained #SpaceX’s extraordinary plan to begin the settlement of Mars,which was very much in evidence as hundreds of people were lined up outside to join his team building Starships. #Mars #Space #MarsSocietyhttps://twitter.com/robert_zubrin/status/1225876531681153024QuoteWe asked what the #MarsSociety could do to help, and he told us: Spread the word on the unlimited future opened by making humanity spacefaring.We will begin next week, by announcing an international contest to design a 1 million person #Mars colony.#SpaceX #NASA #Space #Science"We asked what the mars society could do to help."Elon: Can you weld? How's your environmental system design? Mining engineering talent? PR? Great, you can handle PR.
The facility also added a science lab (focusing on microbiology and geology), two electric ATVs to begin replacing the current gas-driven rover fleet, and a solar array to help generate electricity. The Hab itself has also undergone considerable renovations in the past year, including getting new furniture, new shelving, a new staircase and a new paint job on much of the interior. Next, the Mars Society plans upgrades to the MDRS telescope, which is called the Musk Observatory. The observatory is named after SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk, who is a long-time advocate of human Mars exploration."Plans for the future include converting the Musk Observatory into a solar observatory and [to] build a new astronomical observatory near the station," Stoltz said. "The new [observatory] will be a robotic observatory, accessible online from anywhere on the planet. We have already made arrangements with several institutions to use the remote observatory for research and studies."An anonymous donor paid for the upgrades, said Robert Zubrin, founder of the Mars Society, in an e-mail to Space.com. The cost of the upgrades was not released.
My donations are anonymous
With Cargo Starships much less costly than was assumed a few years ago, it seems more likely that a number will be left on Mars. This implies that used but fully functional Starships on Mars may cost not much more than the local cost of filling them with propellant. One detail about the colony this predicts is a business opportunity to launch other exploratory missions rather than returning cargo Starships to earth. This might include crewed missions of exploration around Mars. There would be many opportunities for human firsts. The first people on Phobos. The first on the summit of Olympus Mons. The first on the Martian North Pole. A cargo starship outfitted with hab quarters for a few crew and exploration gear might support a lot of rentals, tickets and cargo fees to Mars. Countries and corporations could back unique expeditions for comparatively low prices. Cargo Starships might also launch one way robotic expeditions to asteroids and outer planets. Expeditions would create paying customers for a Mars propellant and other supplies and facilities.
With Cargo Starships much less costly than was assumed a few years ago, it seems more likely that a number will be left on Mars.
Quote from: Ludus on 02/26/2020 12:56 amWith Cargo Starships much less costly than was assumed a few years ago, it seems more likely that a number will be left on Mars. If you haven't yet listened to Dr. Zubrin's recent interview on The Space Show, I highly recommend it (link here).On Zubrin's recent visit to Boca Chica, he asked Musk about this. If I remember correctly, he said the first 5 cargo ships would remain on Mars, and then everything after that would return to Earth for reuse.