Author Topic: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony  (Read 54781 times)

Offline Alkan

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Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« on: 04/01/2018 02:24 am »
So, I'm interested in predicting some of the details of his colony. Each phase is looser and more speculative.

Phase I: Fuel Production

The methane fuel will be created by the Sabatier reaction using CO2 and water. Most likely, the electrolysis of water will produce oxygen and hydrogen. The sabatier reaction is exothermic, so it actually produces some heat. It takes some heat for the reaction to get going. The space station actually releases methane as a waste product from their oxygen-water contained system.

What else is needed is food. It won't be self-sustaining for a long time, so I don't see greenhouses to grow food being particularly useful for some time. Rather, several years worth of food would be sent. 7300 pounds of food would feed a person for five years. It might be safer to send 10,000 pounds of probably pretty lousy space food. Send a crew of 8 people and you can send them with enough food, water and oxygen to survive the process of waiting for the fuel production to go home. This is probably the primary goal of the first mission: set up solar panels to generate fuel with the Sabatier process. Some aspects of this would be easier than the space station: not having zero g means that stuff just doesn't float in the air freely.

Phase II: Increasing the Self-sustainability of the Base

So, you have water, sunlight and carbon dioxide. This may be the greenhouse phase. Simple, resilient plants would be grown. A cheap combination would probably be basically a simple vegan diet with some more complex foods shipped in from earth. But things like mashed potatoes and kale? Not so bad. Sea level is 14.7 PSI. Mars is virtually zero, but 14.7 PSI is like an underinflated bike tire. A large inflatable dome could readily be engineered. There are less engineering challenges to this than the ISS. No micrometeorites, reduced cosmic radiation and a gravitational well make this relatively safe. Information from Biosphere 2 would come in handy here. This step is actually comparatively easy and would provide a nice recreational environment on Mars if it were large enough, about the size of a tennis court.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #1 on: 04/01/2018 04:33 am »
Information from Biosphere 2 would come in handy here. This step is actually comparatively easy and would provide a nice recreational environment on Mars if it were large enough, about the size of a tennis court.

Biosphere II really is not informative.
Biosphere II was an aesthetic design, which incidentally sort-of-produced enough food on a truly massive area.

You need pretty closely 3kW of electricity into good LED lights onto potatoes to feed a person, 6kW gives you a varied veggie diet, in around 100m^2.
Perhaps a total of 10kW for food + oxygen.
This is a tiny number compared to the amount of power you need for ISRU.



Offline guckyfan

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #2 on: 04/01/2018 07:27 am »
Atmosphere for breathing, including oxygen, will be provided as a byproduct of fuel ISRU.

Agree that the bulk of calories will be provided from Earth for a while. But a greenhouse for herbs and vegetables will almost certainly be part of the first manned mission. Just to supplement food, make it more palatable.

Offline docmordrid

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #3 on: 04/01/2018 08:03 am »
Information from Biosphere 2 would come in handy here. This step is actually comparatively easy and would provide a nice recreational environment on Mars if it were large enough, about the size of a tennis court.

Biosphere II really is not informative.
Biosphere II was an aesthetic design, which incidentally sort-of-produced enough food on a truly massive area.

You need pretty closely 3kW of electricity into good LED lights onto potatoes to feed a person, 6kW gives you a varied veggie diet, in around 100m^2.
Perhaps a total of 10kW for food + oxygen.
This is a tiny number compared to the amount of power you need for ISRU.

Theres a long thread covering Mars/space agriculture and aquaculture here.

Offline john smith 19

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #4 on: 04/01/2018 09:49 am »
So, I'm interested in predicting some of the details of his colony. Each phase is looser and more speculative.

Phase I: Fuel Production

The methane fuel will be created by the Sabatier reaction using CO2 and water.
Welcome to the site.
You're behind the curve here. Substantial Methane deposits have been found. However PV solar is likely needed to electrolyse water to provide O2 for combustion.

Quote from: Alkan
What else is needed is food. It won't be self-sustaining for a long time, so I don't see greenhouses to grow food being particularly useful for some time. Rather, several years worth of food would be sent. 7300 pounds of food would feed a person for five years. It might be safer to send 10,000 pounds of probably pretty lousy space food. Send a crew of 8 people and you can send them with enough food, water and oxygen to survive the process of waiting for the fuel production to go home.
What makes you think 8?
Quote from: Alkan
This is probably the primary goal of the first mission: set up solar panels to generate fuel with the Sabatier process. Some aspects of this would be easier than the space station: not having zero g means that stuff just doesn't float in the air freely.
Musk stated first mission BFS precursor mission is to find landing sites with water, so first human missions will be to set up ISRU.
Quote from: Alkan
Phase II: Increasing the Self-sustainability of the Base
....
 No micrometeorites, reduced cosmic radiation and a gravitational well make this relatively safe. Information from Biosphere 2 would come in handy here. This step is actually comparatively easy and would provide a nice recreational environment on Mars if it were large enough, about the size of a tennis court.
Wrong.
The equivalent to having the same radiation protection on Earth is about a 3metre layer of regolith.

I do agree you'll need some recreational facilities on Mars, especially if you're planning to move there permanently.

Micrometeroites? IIRC Mars is hit by about 95 rocks that are >5m in diameter a year that are visible from orbit. There maybe more but they are below the resolution limit of the orbital cameras.

Others have pointed out the existing Mars agri & aquaculture thread but this video of NASA ex Flight Surgeon James Logan is also quite informative.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2018 09:52 am by john smith 19 »
MCT ITS BFR SS. The worlds first Methane fueled FFSC engined CFRP SS structure A380 sized aerospaceplane tail sitter capable of Earth & Mars atmospheric flight.First flight to Mars by end of 2022 TBC. T&C apply. Trust nothing. Run your own #s "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof" R. Simberg."Competitve" means cheaper ¬cheap SCramjet proposed 1956. First +ve thrust 2004. US R&D spend to date > $10Bn. #deployed designs. Zero.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #5 on: 04/01/2018 11:49 am »
No, he’s correct. Micrometeorites are not a risk on Mars. Larger meteors are a risk, sure, but they’re far rarer.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline meekGee

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #6 on: 04/01/2018 12:51 pm »


So, I'm interested in predicting some of the details of his colony. Each phase is looser and more speculative.

Phase I: Fuel Production

The methane fuel will be created by the Sabatier reaction using CO2 and water.
Welcome to the site.
You're behind the curve here. Substantial Methane deposits have been found.

JS19: Methane deposits?  I missed that.

Are they usable?  What form do they take?  Do you have references?

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Offline Alkan

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #7 on: 04/01/2018 03:00 pm »


So, I'm interested in predicting some of the details of his colony. Each phase is looser and more speculative.

Phase I: Fuel Production

The methane fuel will be created by the Sabatier reaction using CO2 and water.
Welcome to the site.
You're behind the curve here. Substantial Methane deposits have been found.

JS19: Methane deposits?  I missed that.

Are they usable?  What form do they take?  Do you have references?

-----
ABCD: Always Be Counting Down

Elon Musk literally said they're going to use CO2 at ITS presentation, so that comment about me being behind is kind of funny. It's probably easier to find a lot of water.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8unI6KHAocU?t=14m43s

The presentation on radiation on Mars was released before Elon Musk's Mars architecture was outlined. It will be an issue, though I don't think Elon Musk seems to think of it as such a big deal. It is a bigger deal than I think that Elon Musk thinks, but the risk of increased cancer is just going to be part of it.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2018 03:30 pm by Alkan »

Offline rakaydos

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #8 on: 04/01/2018 03:58 pm »
I still say expirimental cancer research will be mars's biggest unofficial export for some time. You're on mars, you're not going to spend your whole stay in a bunker driving an RC rover. And when the radiation starts giving you lumps, volunteer for expirimental therapies.

Offline speedevil

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #9 on: 04/01/2018 04:02 pm »
I still say expirimental cancer research will be mars's biggest unofficial export for some time. You're on mars, you're not going to spend your whole stay in a bunker driving an RC rover. And when the radiation starts giving you lumps, volunteer for expirimental therapies.

Experimental therapies are not generally very effective, compared to existing ones.
There is no huge bank of promising therapies that are certainly going to revolutionise treatment.
There are occasional exceptions, but most therapies in fact turn out to be more or less comparable with old ones, or not to work at all, with the very occasional breakthrough.

Offline meekGee

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #10 on: 04/01/2018 04:38 pm »
The one thing that keeps bothering me is the question of power.

What's needed is an estimate of consumption based on the colony plans, a power system concept and design, and then an estimae of mass and manpower that passes a sanity check.

Just saying "solar" or "nuclear" is not enough, and SpaceX hasn't yet anything significant about it.

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #11 on: 04/01/2018 04:45 pm »
Power is already solved compared to mining, though. Power is one of the only things that has already been demonstrated many times on Mars. Solar power in particular.

But SpaceX has discussed power many times. There were comments about special lightweighted deployment using inflatables, plus there’s CG of huge fields of solar arrays. Power has been addressed WAY more than actual mining of water has.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #12 on: 04/01/2018 04:46 pm »
Additionally, we’ve discussed power many, MANY times on this site, with many threads (often dedicated ones). Few things have been rehashed here more times than Mars surface power. Crazy to say it hasn’t been given much attention.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #13 on: 04/01/2018 04:55 pm »
I still say expirimental cancer research will be mars's biggest unofficial export for some time. You're on mars, you're not going to spend your whole stay in a bunker driving an RC rover.

There is more to setting up a civilization than "driving an RC rover."

Quote
And when the radiation starts giving you lumps, volunteer for expirimental therapies.

This assumes a lot of things that I don't think are likely to be available:

1. There are experts in the field of science and medicine that A) have the equipment necessary, and B) have the time necessary, to work on experimental cancer therapies.

2. A bigger population than what's available on Earth to do the same. Because we already do medical experiments on volunteers here on Earth around the world.

So while I think it's an important field of research, I don't think Mars will be a conducive place to do such research in the early days of setting up their colonies.
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #14 on: 04/01/2018 05:00 pm »
I still say expirimental cancer research will be mars's biggest unofficial export for some time. You're on mars, you're not going to spend your whole stay in a bunker driving an RC rover. And when the radiation starts giving you lumps, volunteer for expirimental therapies.
You can spend almost a full work day (~30 hours per work week) in an EVA suit without exceeding annual Earth Radiation worker standards, provided the rest of the time is well-shielded. Few people seem to realize this.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #15 on: 04/01/2018 05:02 pm »


So, I'm interested in predicting some of the details of his colony. Each phase is looser and more speculative.

Phase I: Fuel Production

The methane fuel will be created by the Sabatier reaction using CO2 and water.
Welcome to the site.
You're behind the curve here. Substantial Methane deposits have been found.

JS19: Methane deposits?  I missed that.

Are they usable?  What form do they take?  Do you have references?

-----
ABCD: Always Be Counting Down

Elon Musk literally said they're going to use CO2 at ITS presentation, so that comment about me being behind is kind of funny. It's probably easier to find a lot of water.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8unI6KHAocU?t=14m43s

The presentation on radiation on Mars was released before Elon Musk's Mars architecture was outlined. It will be an issue, though I don't think Elon Musk seems to think of it as such a big deal. It is a bigger deal than I think that Elon Musk thinks, but the risk of increased cancer is just going to be part of it.
Presentations on radiation on Mars have been given for decades, the situation has not changed much except that Mars Curiosity has validated that surface radiation levels are much less than deep space and solar events are effectively neutralized (compared to deep space).
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline meekGee

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #16 on: 04/01/2018 05:29 pm »
Power is already solved compared to mining, though. Power is one of the only things that has already been demonstrated many times on Mars. Solar power in particular.

But SpaceX has discussed power many times. There were comments about special lightweighted deployment using inflatables, plus there’s CG of huge fields of solar arrays. Power has been addressed WAY more than actual mining of water has.
Actually, compared to other things, it was all hand waving.

How about:
We estimate we will need x kWatt-avg (total or per person)

We estimate we need to ship y kg to generate a kWatt-avg

We estimate we need z man-hours to support that generation.

And a broad outline of a design that supports these estimates.


For BFR, we received that level of detail, down to engine chamber pressure and dry amd wet masses.

But BFR is impossible without ISRU and a ground power system.

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Offline joek

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #17 on: 04/01/2018 05:29 pm »
The presentation on radiation on Mars was released before Elon Musk's Mars architecture was outlined. It will be an issue, though I don't think Elon Musk seems to think of it as such a big deal. It is a bigger deal than I think that Elon Musk thinks, but the risk of increased cancer is just going to be part of it.

Presumably anyone migrating to Mars in the next 30+ years will be reasonably well informed and capable of making their own decision.  The potential Mars population will self-select.  If they are worried that much about radiation they won't go.  If they decide to go who are we to tell them otherwise?

In any case, I doubt that radiation-cancer-related-whatever will be among the top 10 causes of death for a Mars population for the foreseeable future.  Mars is likely to remain very dangerous place for humans for a long time for reasons unrelated to radiation.

Experimental therapies are not generally very effective, compared to existing ones.

Until, of course, they become non-experimental and part of the  norm.  E.g., chemo and charged particle treatment modalities were once "experimental", now they are mainstream.  But point taken; unlikely Mars will drive break-through treatments; likely the colonists will have more pressing issues to worry about.

Offline blasphemer

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #18 on: 04/01/2018 05:55 pm »
Presentations on radiation on Mars have been given for decades, the situation has not changed much except that Mars Curiosity has validated that surface radiation levels are much less than deep space and solar events are effectively neutralized (compared to deep space).

Please post a source. Mars has very weak magnetic field and very thin atmosphere. It should therefore receive almost half of deep space cosmic ray dose (like 200-300 mSv per year, other half shielded by the planet itself) and also most of solar flare doses. Not an issue if you only spend a dozen hours per week outside, but more than that and it becomes a serious concern, especially for actual colonists who will hopefully live for many years and decades on the planet, instead of year long missions.
« Last Edit: 04/01/2018 06:25 pm by blasphemer »

Offline blasphemer

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Re: Predicting Details of Elon Musk's Mars Colony
« Reply #19 on: 04/01/2018 06:21 pm »
Wrong.
The equivalent to having the same radiation protection on Earth is about a 3metre layer of regolith.

I would also like a source for this. Earth atmosphere has mass of 10 tonnes per square meter. Seems to me like equivalent mass of regolith would be significantly thicker than 3 meters. Also, this:
« Last Edit: 04/01/2018 06:23 pm by blasphemer »

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