Poll

What do you think we'll see from the Commercial Crew program in 2018?

Both SpaceX and Boeing will fly NASA astronauts to the ISS.
15 (11.6%)
Only SpaceX will fly NASA astronauts to the ISS.
49 (38%)
Only Boeing will fly NASA astronauts to the ISS.
1 (0.8%)
Both SpaceX and Boeing will fly company astronauts OR crewed flights that don't go to the ISS.
4 (3.1%)
Only SpaceX will fly company astronauts OR crewed flights that don't go to the ISS.
6 (4.7%)
Only Boeing will fly company astronauts OR crewed flights that don't go to the ISS.
0 (0%)
Both SpaceX and Boeing will do uncrewed test flights, but no astronauts.
39 (30.2%)
Only SpaceX will do uncrewed test flights, but no astronauts.
14 (10.9%)
Only Boeing will do uncrewed test flights, but no astronauts.
0 (0%)
Neither SpaceX nor Boeing will do uncrewed test flights of their vehicles.
1 (0.8%)

Total Members Voted: 129

Voting closed: 01/01/2018 03:25 AM


Author Topic: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?  (Read 4482 times)

Online QuantumG

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Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« on: 12/05/2017 02:09 AM »
There's 25 days left in December, let's see what this awesome community thinks will happen with Commercial Crew next year. I've arranged the options in order of what I consider greatest achievement (both providers flying NASA astronauts to the ISS) to lowest achievement (neither provider doing test flights). Members can't change their vote* before the end of the year and the results will not be visible until 2018, so feel free to vote, comment, solicit, gerrymander, trade, bribe, and otherwise argue for your favourite option!  ;D

* blame Lar
« Last Edit: 12/05/2017 04:01 AM by QuantumG »
I hear those things are awfully loud. It glides as softly as a cloud. What's it called? Monowhale!

Offline gongora

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #1 on: 12/05/2017 02:18 AM »
SpaceX isn't flying company astronauts.  At all.  It might be better to phrase those choices as crewed demonstration missions?

Online QuantumG

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #2 on: 12/05/2017 02:26 AM »
hehe, I updated those options to include the possibility of non-ISS flights... so all your bases should be covered now.

The poll results were visible to everyone for a minute or two there. Fixed it.
I hear those things are awfully loud. It glides as softly as a cloud. What's it called? Monowhale!

Offline Markstark

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #3 on: 12/05/2017 02:42 AM »
I went both completing uncrewed test flight by 2018. SpaceX will likely beat Boeing to a crewed flight in 2019...unless... FH experiences RUD event on 39a.

Offline Lar

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #4 on: 12/05/2017 02:58 AM »
it is not our way to allow changes in votes. Think... discuss... then commit. Absent some COMPELLING reason sent via PM from QuantumG, I will edit the poll to reflect our way.... (actually I did NOT edit it to do that, it seems to be a system limitation... Don't blame me!).

I voted my bias (only SpaceX to ISS) and have no plans to change that.
« Last Edit: 12/06/2017 08:51 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
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Offline rockets4life97

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #5 on: 12/05/2017 11:12 AM »
I voted only SpaceX will fly a crewed mission to ISS in 2018. SpaceX can withstand a 4 month delay (Aug to Dec) and still make a crewed flight this year.

I think the schedule is too packed for Boeing to pull off a crewed flight in 2018. I think they'll get their uncrewed demonstration flight in 2018 though.

Online Svetoslav

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #6 on: 12/05/2017 11:53 AM »
I voted that both Boeing and SpaceX will conduct some uncrewed flights (by uncrewed flight I count orbital flights and pad aborts), but I don't believe these companies will conduct manned flights.

Offline Paul451

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #7 on: 12/05/2017 02:01 PM »
it is not our way to allow changes in votes. Think... discuss... then commit.

Discuss then vote? Monster! Vote first, then read the thread.



Voted the same as Svetoslav. [Unmanned flights in 2018. (Two for SpaceX, one for Boeing.) Manned flights slip to early 2019. (Two for Boeing, one for SpaceX.)]

Offline gongora

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #8 on: 12/05/2017 02:08 PM »
I'll be optimistic: Only SpaceX flies crew next year, after NASA accepts the COPV 2.0 design in late 2018.

Offline mme

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #9 on: 12/05/2017 05:15 PM »
I'll be optimistic: Only SpaceX flies crew next year, after NASA accepts the COPV 2.0 design in late 2018.




I won't be shocked if both slip into 2019 and I was going to vote SpaceX only but then I decided to be optimistic. :)
« Last Edit: 12/05/2017 05:18 PM by mme »
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Offline subzero788

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #10 on: 12/29/2017 01:48 PM »
I'm betting on more delays. No manned flights and only SpaceX manage to fly their uncrewed demo this year.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #11 on: 01/09/2018 05:20 AM »
Didn't get to vote in time. I probably would've said Boeing no and SpaceX yes. Now I think Boeing no and SpaceX no. But it's really close, like 50:50 almost for SpaceX.
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Offline mme

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Re: Will commercial crew fly in 2018?
« Reply #12 on: 02/06/2018 05:30 PM »
Shotwell and now Koenigsmann claiming flights will happen this year. Not a guarantee of course, but I find it interesting that people that are not Elon are still pushing the 2018 timeline.

https://twitter.com/pbdes/status/960932763166588928
Quote
Peter B. de Selding‏
@pbdes

Koenigsmann @spacex: Plan 1st launch of uncrewed demo of Commercial Crew capsule in August to ISS. Crewed version by end of the year. @SmallSatBiz

(I voted yes/yes but I'm an optimist.)
Space is not Highlander.  There can, and will, be more than one.

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