Author Topic: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6  (Read 5084 times)

Online gongora

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #20 on: 02/01/2018 04:53 PM »
I'm not suggesting SpaceX pad their bids.  I'm suggesting there is no reason for them to factor in later re-use of the boosters when they are pricing their bids.

Offline Kansan52

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #21 on: 02/01/2018 05:57 PM »
Do we actually know there have been price reductions offered for reflown first stages? My impression from posts using flight proven first stages means sooner flights, not reduced price flights.

Of course, the real answer may be partially both.

Online gongora

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #22 on: 02/01/2018 06:04 PM »
Do we actually know there have been price reductions offered for reflown first stages? My impression from posts using flight proven first stages means sooner flights, not reduced price flights.

Of course, the real answer may be partially both.

For the commercial flights yes, Iridium said they got a discount.  SES certainly got a discount on the first flight (they never said the exact amount.)  NASA has mentioned getting some sort of additional value.  None of this has anything to do with the RFP though.

Offline Kansan52

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #23 on: 02/01/2018 06:23 PM »
Thanks!

Offline AncientU

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #24 on: 02/01/2018 07:02 PM »
New article:
Quote
SpaceX and ULA poised to face off in the next round of military launch competition
Quote
The competition comes less than two years since SpaceX became a legitimate competitor in a market that used to be entirely owned by United Launch Alliance, a partnership of Lockheed Martin and The Boeing Company.

If SpaceX is able to win at least one or two launches in this next round of contracts, it would further cement its standing as a market disruptor and set the stage for the company to win even more military work when the larger Falcon Heavy rocket gets certified to fly government payloads.
Emphasis mine
http://spacenews.com/spacex-and-ula-poised-to-face-off-in-the-next-round-of-military-launch-competition/
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Offline Jim

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #25 on: 02/01/2018 07:12 PM »
it would further cement its standing as a market disruptor and set the stage for the company to win even more military work when the larger Falcon Heavy rocket gets certified to fly government payloads.

Not going to happen without vertical integration
« Last Edit: 02/01/2018 07:13 PM by Jim »

Offline Lar

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #26 on: 02/01/2018 07:58 PM »
it would further cement its standing as a market disruptor and set the stage for the company to win even more military work when the larger Falcon Heavy rocket gets certified to fly government payloads.

Not going to happen without vertical integration
Which, it has been argued, SpaceX will provide in time, if the bid requires it.
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Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #27 on: 02/02/2018 03:05 AM »
I'm not suggesting SpaceX pad their bids.  I'm suggesting there is no reason for them to factor in later re-use of the boosters when they are pricing their bids.

No reason for them to price their reusable rocket as a reusable rocket?

Currently, through the NASA Launch Services Program (NLS II contract), SpaceX offers two different pricing options for Falcon 9:
Quote
SpaceX has offered two performance levels for the Falcon 9 Full Thrust on NLS-II. The first level includes booster performance holdbacks to allow for a Return-to-Launch-Site (RTLS) first stage recovery. The second level provides higher performance by allowing the first stage to be recovered via the SpaceX Automated Spaceport Drone Ship (ASDS), positioned downrange from the launch site.

The USAF contract auditors would know that pricing, and they would expect the same for equivalent services.

Regarding Falcon 9 Block 5, which is the true reusable launcher, SpaceX has stated that customers that want unflown boosters will be able to choose them, and we do know that reflown boosters will eventually be priced at a discount compared to the current $62M standard website price. The price the government pays through the NLS II contract may be different from SpaceX public pricing though.

Bottom line is that SpaceX has to provide consistent pricing to the U.S. Government, and the USAF is not the only government entity using the Falcon 9. So if they factor in reusability for NASA, then the USAF will also have that pricing factored in. That means only the non-Falcon 9 part of the contract can be changed beyond reality (either up or down), but I don't think SpaceX has an incentive to do that. Lots of debate about whether ULA has engaged in such activities though...  ;)
If we don't continuously lower the cost to access space, how are we ever going to afford to expand humanity out into space?

Online gongora

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Re: USAF RFP - EELV Phase 1A-6
« Reply #28 on: 02/02/2018 03:17 AM »
Coastal Ron,

You're completely ignoring the post I was initially responding too.  Here is the relevant part:

Surely SpaceX's bid will be predicated on a fully mature block 5 with multiple reuses per booster and they may be confident enough to price in some level of fairing reuse. They'd also expect to have recouped reuse development costs by then, in which case couldn't SpaceX bid, say, half their current price or less?

That ain't gonna happen.


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