And the answer is.... (drum roll)

26

Numerically, 26.4 +/-5.2

(Best fit Gaussian mean and moment)

Pretty close to my guess of 27.

YMMV

Last year the consensus was 13.7 +/- 5.2, so the 18 launches was significantly higher.

edit: Once again, the consensus forms within the first few days and the first fraction of the total votes and never moves significantly.