Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2018?

1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
1 (0.3%)
11
0 (0%)
12
2 (0.7%)
13
1 (0.3%)
14
0 (0%)
15
1 (0.3%)
16
0 (0%)
17
2 (0.7%)
18
2 (0.7%)
19
3 (1%)
20
15 (5%)
21
4 (1.3%)
22
12 (4%)
23
15 (5%)
24
39 (12.9%)
25
33 (10.9%)
26
22 (7.3%)
27
32 (10.6%)
28
28 (9.3%)
29
20 (6.6%)
30
34 (11.3%)
31
6 (2%)
32
14 (4.6%)
33
4 (1.3%)
34
1 (0.3%)
35
5 (1.7%)
36
2 (0.7%)
37
0 (0%)
38
0 (0%)
39
0 (0%)
40
1 (0.3%)
More than 40!!!
3 (1%)
None (sometimes option 42 is the right answer, but this is not one of those times)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 302

Voting closed: 01/19/2018 12:22 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018  (Read 10045 times)

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9553
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 6319
  • Likes Given: 4239
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #80 on: 01/18/2018 10:02 PM »
I think you should make BFR/BFS launches count, even if suborbital, because, you know, I'm sure that Elon has an absurd level of optimism that they will launch a rocket this year that they haven't even finished designing yet.
No.

If you want a "how many BFS will launch this year" do that poll. This is SpaceX launches, of whatever vehicle, but only ones that are attempting to be orbital.

Not changing the rules makes year to year comparisions easier.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4035
  • Liked: 1358
  • Likes Given: 1108
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #81 on: 01/20/2018 07:17 PM »
And the answer is.... (drum roll)
26
Numerically, 26.4 +/-5.2
(Best fit Gaussian mean and moment)
Pretty close to my guess of 27.
YMMV

Last year the consensus was 13.7 +/- 5.2, so the 18 launches was significantly higher. 

edit: Once again, the consensus forms within the first few days and the first fraction of the total votes and never moves significantly.
« Last Edit: 01/20/2018 07:18 PM by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9553
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 6319
  • Likes Given: 4239
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #82 on: 01/21/2018 12:24 AM »
Thanks for the pretty graphs.

Interesting that 30 got so many votes (that's the on paper estimate by SpaceX themselves) as well as 24 (80% of same and also "2 a month" )
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2561
  • US
  • Liked: 1958
  • Likes Given: 1302
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #83 on: 01/21/2018 01:07 AM »
I started in the high 20's, figured they wouldn't get them all launched, got down to 25, then subtracted 1 because I was feeling pessimistic that day.  Now it just looks like I chose two a month  :D

Online Comga

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4035
  • Liked: 1358
  • Likes Given: 1108
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #84 on: 01/21/2018 08:49 PM »
The vast majority of us who voted more than a dozen or so were assuming that no rockets blew up.
We probably didn't anticipate the US government "blowing up".  :P
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

  • Fan boy at large
  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 9553
  • Saw Gemini live on TV
  • A large LEGO storage facility ... in Michigan
  • Liked: 6319
  • Likes Given: 4239
Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #85 on: 01/21/2018 10:18 PM »
I can't see it lasting more than a month and that would be extreme... so it may have a 10% impact but not half....
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Tags: