Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2018?

1
0 (0%)
2
0 (0%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
0 (0%)
7
0 (0%)
8
0 (0%)
9
0 (0%)
10
1 (0.3%)
11
0 (0%)
12
2 (0.7%)
13
1 (0.3%)
14
0 (0%)
15
1 (0.3%)
16
0 (0%)
17
2 (0.7%)
18
2 (0.7%)
19
3 (1%)
20
15 (5%)
21
4 (1.3%)
22
12 (4%)
23
15 (5%)
24
39 (12.9%)
25
33 (10.9%)
26
22 (7.3%)
27
32 (10.6%)
28
28 (9.3%)
29
20 (6.6%)
30
34 (11.3%)
31
6 (2%)
32
14 (4.6%)
33
4 (1.3%)
34
1 (0.3%)
35
5 (1.7%)
36
2 (0.7%)
37
0 (0%)
38
0 (0%)
39
0 (0%)
40
1 (0.3%)
More than 40!!!
3 (1%)
None (sometimes option 42 is the right answer, but this is not one of those times)
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 302

Voting closed: 01/19/2018 12:22 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018  (Read 21153 times)

Offline watermod

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #20 on: 12/14/2017 10:22 PM »
I took the number of scheduled launches.   Last year I was pessmistic and said 9.   This year 22.

Offline Paul451

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #21 on: 12/15/2017 11:58 PM »
Picked 25. Assuming they are aiming for 30, 28 is a reasonable number (allowing for more routine delays, range-congestion, hurricanes, customers who don't have their payloads ready, etc.) But next year is a bit of a doozy, with FH and D2. The need to throw extra people at any problems that arise could easily cause more delays, hence 25.

Last year I voted 12. So...



Early days, still within statistical noise. But some of the patterns are interesting. The surge at 20 makes sense, nice round number. Hence the gap just above 20. Ditto around 30. But why the surge at 24? [edit: D'oh! 2 per month.]
« Last Edit: 12/16/2017 12:51 AM by Paul451 »

Offline david1971

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #22 on: 12/16/2017 12:45 AM »
I figured 2 per month sounds good, so 24.

Cutting and pasting a post of mine from the 2017 thread, for perspective on these numbers:
Years that Atlas had 16+ successful orbital launches (along with failures):
1962         16(3)
1964         18(3)
1965         19(5)
1966         33(3)

Thor/Delta:
1960     21(7)       
1961     23(7)       
1962     38(4)       
1963     29(5)       
1964     32(4)       
1965     33(2)       
1966     24(2)       
1967     28(0)     
1968     21(2)     
1969     22(2)         
1970     16(0)   

Long March 2/3/4
2011     19(1)
2012     19(0)
2015     17(0)
2016     19(2)

Of course, the Soviets had decade-long stretches where they would average better than a Soyuz a week (Proton maxed out at 14 in 2000).

Delta IV has had 26 launches single-stick, 35 total when you add in the heavies.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #23 on: 12/16/2017 12:55 AM »
Those failure numbers are remarkable.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online envy887

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #24 on: 12/16/2017 01:05 AM »
...
Of course, the Soviets had decade-long stretches where they would average better than a Soyuz a week (Proton maxed out at 14 in 2000).
...

Soyuz only had one such stretch, from 1975 to 1985. But they did launch at least 23 successfully every year from 1964 to 1993.

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #25 on: 12/16/2017 01:35 AM »
...
Of course, the Soviets had decade-long stretches where they would average better than a Soyuz a week (Proton maxed out at 14 in 2000).
...

Soyuz only had one such stretch, from 1975 to 1985. But they did launch at least 23 successfully every year from 1964 to 1993.

hehe ... only one stretch but it was a **decade long** stretch! The soonest that could be topped is 2028... and that assumes a big jump in F9 flight rate AND that it doesn't retire before that. Might not be till BFR is steady state flying that another vehicle has a shot at that....
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online Bubbinski

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #26 on: 12/16/2017 01:42 AM »
I voted for 24 (22 F9, 2 FH). SpaceX has 3 operational pads so that will help them get there despite the usual problems and delays that can sometimes happen. 2 per month is a good cadence. (I could also see last minute ZUMA like launches bumping a couple of payloads to 2019).

The “more than 40” cadence is unlikely now, but to me it won’t be far fetched in a year or two assuming no AMOS-6 like surprises based on the progress SX has shown.
I'll even excitedly look forward to "flags and footprints" and suborbital missions. Just fly...somewhere.

Offline david1971

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #27 on: 12/16/2017 02:18 AM »
...
Of course, the Soviets had decade-long stretches where they would average better than a Soyuz a week (Proton maxed out at 14 in 2000).
...

Soyuz only had one such stretch, from 1975 to 1985. But they did launch at least 23 successfully every year from 1964 to 1993.

Ed's site has 54 launched in 1973, 52 in 1974. 

Stretching the definition and counting on my fingers and toes, I got 1219 launches from 1968 through 1990.  So over those 23 years they averaged a launch a week.

http://spacelaunchreport.com/r7suma3.txt


Offline IanThePineapple

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #28 on: 12/16/2017 02:27 AM »
Wonderful, I clicked 12.  :P

I thought this was asking about reused core flights...
« Last Edit: 12/16/2017 02:33 AM by IanThePineapple »

Offline mikelepage

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #29 on: 12/16/2017 03:04 AM »
In my head I've been curve-fitting a smooth exponential increase to SpaceX's launch rates, which would mean that either:
1) conservative option: 18 launches in 2017 is/was aberrantly high (perhaps because of clearing backlog from 2016 failure) and the curve "should" have been more like 2, 3, 6, 10, 16... in which case I would have voted 24 for 2018.
or
2) Optimistic option: 2016 was aberrantly low (and the backlog from the failure still exists to be cleared) and it "should" have been 2, 3, 6, 11, 18... in which case I'd project 29 for 2018.

I'm feeling optimistic with respect to still having a large manifest to get through, having multiple active launch sites and also FH's ability to reuse pre-existing boosters, so I voted for 29 in 2018.

Having said that, I don't expect the exponential trend to continue once they start devoting more resources to BFR, so in 2019-20 I'm thinking (*EDIT I misspoke) it will settle back to a more linear increase in launch numbers.

I am quite surprised at the early results. The lowest number is... shocking. (you'll have to vote to see what it is).. suggests high confidence in SpaceX ability.

Lar, unless they have a major failure in 2018, the 2019 poll is going to look strange unless you have a "less than 12 launches" range as option 1.  I mean, the Amos-6 issue was addressed in 3 months, and they've now proven they can launch 12 times in 9 months.  Averaging less than one launch a month in 2019 would be a failure by SpaceX standards.
« Last Edit: 12/16/2017 03:11 AM by mikelepage »

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #30 on: 12/16/2017 11:29 AM »
Wonderful, I clicked 12.  :P

I thought this was asking about reused core flights...
We do advise you read everything carefully before voting... On the  bright side you probably are going to not be optimistically wrong come end of year... Also, it may be scant comfort but you are not alone with that pick!

I am quite surprised at the early results. The lowest number is... shocking. (you'll have to vote to see what it is).. suggests high confidence in SpaceX ability.

Lar, unless they have a major failure in 2018, the 2019 poll is going to look strange unless you have a "less than 12 launches" range as option 1.  I mean, the Amos-6 issue was addressed in 3 months, and they've now proven they can launch 12 times in 9 months.  Averaging less than one launch a month in 2019 would be a failure by SpaceX standards.

I think it would be kinda weird to have a range at the beginning just one year after having a range at the end... I probably will just crank out individual options even if no one uses them. So far I haven't found an upper limit on how many options you can have and it just takes time to create (and screen real estate to display)....

But yeah. It's pretty nifty. and yeah if they can't do 12 in 2019 something is very wrong.
« Last Edit: 12/16/2017 11:34 AM by Lar »
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online RonM

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #31 on: 12/16/2017 02:45 PM »
I went with an optimistic 30. Assuming no major delays, the east coast pads handling 22 and 8 out of Vandenberg. Seems like a high number, but that's less than one per month for each pad. Two pads on the east coast is a big deal.

Block 5 will start flying in 2018 and SLC-40 was modified to handle long duration test burns (no shipping back to Texas if a test is needed). That should make getting ready for the next launch easier.

Offline Billium

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #32 on: 12/16/2017 04:18 PM »
Last year I voted 18. A few months ago I thought I would be low.

This year, 30+ payloads, 3 pads, I think the constraint is cores. Now the block 5 will help in making flight proven boosters available sooner, but working out the bugs in a newer block may initially cause delays in booster availability. I think 24 on the low end, 30 on the high end are reasonable, so I voted for 27 which is right in the middle. Also, it's an odd number and I want to mix it up from my even guess last year.

Thanks for setting up the poll!

I assume no incidents in 2018!
« Last Edit: 12/16/2017 04:20 PM by Billium »

Online Johnnyhinbos

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #33 on: 12/16/2017 05:19 PM »
My vote - 31. They will launch a total of 31 times (I predicted 18 for 2017, which is not too far off...  ;)). This will include two FH flights. Of the 29 F9 flights, 18 will be flight proven and will use 10 distinct cores (due to introduction of Block 5)
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Online saliva_sweet

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #34 on: 12/16/2017 08:12 PM »
Also, it may be scant comfort but you are not alone with that pick!

I was the other one that predicted twelve. I fear a launch failure will happen for a block 5 core.

Offline bolun

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #35 on: 12/17/2017 01:32 PM »
26. I double my bet.  8)

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #36 on: 12/17/2017 07:08 PM »
I fear a launch failure will happen for a block 5 core.

I considered that but in the end decided the risk was low enough to not affect my choice. I believe SpaceX will have done enough analysis and testing, including flying block 5 components on non block 5 flights, to mitigate the risk sufficiently. The risk on the first F9 flight was also much greater(!) and SpaceX have so much more experience (including the failures) now than then. I think FH is notably riskier but of course has low manifest impact if it fails.

Offline rockets4life97

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #37 on: 12/17/2017 07:28 PM »
I think FH is notably riskier but of course has low manifest impact if it fails.

The big impact will be for Commercial Crew if FH destroys the pad. Probably at least a 6 month delay, if not longer.

Online FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #38 on: 12/17/2017 07:32 PM »
I think FH is notably riskier but of course has low manifest impact if it fails.

The big impact will be for Commercial Crew if FH destroys the pad. Probably at least a 6 month delay, if not longer.

True, but I think it’ll clear the pad fine (despite what Elon says to try & manage expectations!)

Online RotoSequence

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2018
« Reply #39 on: 12/17/2017 08:23 PM »
My (unreliable) Black Swan sense is capping 2018 at 20 launches; I'll be happy to be wrong.  :P

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