Poll

How many SpaceX flights do you anticipate in 2017?

None
0 (0%)
1
1 (0.3%)
2
1 (0.3%)
3
0 (0%)
4
0 (0%)
5
0 (0%)
6
5 (1.6%)
7
5 (1.6%)
8
8 (2.5%)
9
8 (2.5%)
10
24 (7.5%)
11
18 (5.6%)
12
45 (14.1%)
13
36 (11.3%)
14
24 (7.5%)
15
31 (9.7%)
16
25 (7.8%)
17
16 (5%)
18
26 (8.1%)
19
9 (2.8%)
20
14 (4.4%)
21-25
21 (6.6%)
26-30
2 (0.6%)
31-35
0 (0%)
more than 35 !!!!
1 (0.3%)

Total Members Voted: 320

Voting closed: 01/19/2017 06:46 PM


Author Topic: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017  (Read 69272 times)

Offline Comga

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #280 on: 12/23/2017 01:37 PM »
247 (77%) underestimates and 37 overestimates (12%)
Someday when I have more than a phone I will calculate how many standard deviations high this is.
We could say 2018 will be real interesting but every year of this is interesting.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline Lar

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #281 on: 12/23/2017 02:11 PM »
Where can I collect my prize?

Prize administration has been outsourced.. we have one of our crack employees on it, the lovely Ms. Waite.  So to get your prize, you should go to Helen Waite.
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Offline Tass

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #282 on: 12/23/2017 06:52 PM »
They managed to double my prediction! I'll be sure to turn up the optimism a bit now.

Offline whitelancer64

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #283 on: 12/25/2017 04:36 PM »
I vote 18

5 from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A, including the Falcon Heavy Demo.
2 from SLC-40.

You mean 19?

Yeah, though I voted 18 in the poll. oh well.

I can't do math in my head for crap. Even simple math, apparently.

Seems like my *vote* of 18 held up, though I was a tad off ...

5 launches from Vandy.
12 from LC-39A.
Only one from SLC-40!
No Falcon Heavy.
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Offline qbytex

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #284 on: 12/26/2017 04:17 PM »
OK. I'm exercising my bragging rights, as one of the 26 lucky guessers!

In previous years my guesses always turned out to be too optimistic, but mostly due to the the unexpected accidents. So this year I went even higher with 18, hoping for an accident-free year. I was wrong in that in my count I included the Falcon Heavy demo launch, but luckily other launches made up for it.

I was very happy when for a few months it seemed as if SpaceX would exceed my guess, with 20 or more launches, but in the end the final few delays made the count match my guess exactly.

Congrats to SpaceX on an amazing year! I'm sure in 2018 they will easily exceed this year's total.

Offline Jarnis

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #285 on: 12/26/2017 06:17 PM »
Damn. Guessed by 2 too low. And in all honesty it could've been even one more had Zuma gone up on schedule without fairing issues.

Offline subzero788

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #286 on: 12/28/2017 12:10 AM »
Voted 9. Being conservative always seems to pay off in these polls

Not this year!

Pretty amazing considering they were coming back from a failure and down one pad at the beginning of 2017. Well done SpaceX! Bring on 2018!

Offline IanThePineapple

Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #287 on: 12/28/2017 01:16 AM »
I guessed 10. I'm very happy I was wrong!  ;D

Offline Darkseraph

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #288 on: 12/28/2017 01:19 AM »
Guessed 11. Pleasantly surprised at 18!
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #289 on: 12/28/2017 04:44 AM »
Damn. Guessed by 2 too low. And in all honesty it could've been even one more had Zuma gone up on schedule without fairing issues.

No it would have been possibly 2 more. Zuma was holding up Falcon Heavy from being assemble on the TEL in the LC-39A HIB barn. SpaceX ran out of time with the year end holidays looming.

Offline eriblo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #290 on: 12/28/2017 10:52 AM »
It seems like my launches/landings/heavies (19/17/1) "estimate" was off by just one (FH) launch :). I knew that that was the most optimistic part of it - and it was close!

(Conveniently glossing over the fact that a FH in 2017 would likely have meant at least 20 launches and that I guessed SES-16 and Iridium-5 instead of Formosat-5 and OTV-5...)

Offline rpapo

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #291 on: 01/01/2018 11:09 AM »
The year 2017 is now officially over.  SpaceX has really stretched itself this year.  But you may or may not have noticed that SpaceX in 2017, apart from totally dominating the launches from the United States, they were roughly on par with both China and Russia.  China launched the same number of rockets, but had one full failure and one partial failure.  Russia launched two more rockets than SpaceX, but also had one failure.  Europe launched only nine rockets, but had they all been Ariane 5 double payloads (which they were not), they could have been considered by some as being in the same ball-park.

Reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_in_spaceflight#Orbital_launch_statistics
« Last Edit: 01/01/2018 11:12 AM by rpapo »
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Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #292 on: 01/01/2018 11:37 AM »
Or, to put it another way, SpaceX  - a private company - was roughly on par with two of the mightiest nations on earth. Not bad!
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Offline hop

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Re: POLL: Number of SpaceX orbital flights in 2017
« Reply #293 on: 01/02/2018 12:16 AM »
Very pleased to have finally low-balled one of these :D (voted 12)

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