Poll

When do you believe humans will land on Mars?

2010s
1 (0.6%)
2020s
47 (26.4%)
2030s
66 (37.1%)
2040s
31 (17.4%)
2050s
14 (7.9%)
2060s
4 (2.2%)
2070s
2 (1.1%)
2080s
0 (0%)
2090s
0 (0%)
2100s or later
5 (2.8%)
never
8 (4.5%)

Total Members Voted: 178

Voting closed: 02/27/2016 08:37 pm


Author Topic: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?  (Read 17818 times)

Online Pipcard

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When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« on: 01/28/2016 08:15 pm »
I predict sometime after 2030. A balance between the expected 2039 landing by NASA and SpaceX's expectations to do it in about 10 years. There might be delays like with Falcon Heavy. Technologies for things such as ISRU (unless it was one of those "austere" architectures) and long-duration life support still need to be developed. It will probably be a joint NASA-SpaceX mission with some international participation.
« Last Edit: 01/28/2016 08:28 pm by Pipcard »

Offline nadreck

Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #1 on: 01/28/2016 08:27 pm »
yes but you have to make it a poll . . .

EDIT: and now it is (twice until a mod can delete the one I created)

So my blurb about my vote is:

Personally my answer is 2025 to 2029 and if I had to pick a specific synod I would say 2027, as well whatever synod I expect it to arrive near the beginning of the "standard arrival window" while having launched near the end of the "standard launch window".
« Last Edit: 01/28/2016 08:48 pm by nadreck »
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Online Pipcard

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #2 on: 01/28/2016 08:29 pm »
yes but you have to make it a poll . . .
(I have no options to make a poll on my own, actually. Lar messaged me, and it seems that "maybe only mods can make them.")

Offline whitelancer64

Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #3 on: 01/28/2016 08:42 pm »
I agree with "2030s," but if and only IF (yes, a big if) some group (any group) can launch precursor missions to test ISRU in the 2020-2025 timeframe and then pre-supply and habitat establishment missions to Mars in the 2025-2030 timeframe. So far, no group has started doing the engineering work needed to develop supply missions and habitats. Personally, I would not get get my hopes up until engineering test articles start being built.
"One bit of advice: it is important to view knowledge as sort of a semantic tree -- make sure you understand the fundamental principles, ie the trunk and big branches, before you get into the leaves/details or there is nothing for them to hang on to." - Elon Musk
"There are lies, damned lies, and launch schedules." - Larry J

Offline rocx

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #4 on: 01/28/2016 08:43 pm »
yes but you have to make it a poll . . .
(I have no options to make a poll on my own, actually. Lar messaged me, and it seems that "maybe only mods can make them.")

Chris posted about this a few days ago, for some technical reason only L2 members can create polls, and this is not working as intended. They are working on it.
Any day with a rocket landing is a fantastic day.

Offline Lar

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #5 on: 01/28/2016 08:46 pm »
I voted 2020s because I am a big silly optimist, but even under SpaceX time dilation I think they'll squeak by. If not for SpaceX.... I probably would have voted Never.

People who posted in the original non poll thread have been sent their text if they want to reuse it.
"I think it would be great to be born on Earth and to die on Mars. Just hopefully not at the point of impact." -Elon Musk
"We're a little bit like the dog who caught the bus" - Musk after CRS-8 S1 successfully landed on ASDS OCISLY

Online CraigLieb

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #6 on: 01/28/2016 09:10 pm »
Voted for 2020's because I am getting older and want to go. 
2030s or 2040s is probably too long from now..
Better eat salad, better eat salad.. run run run run... say no to cake.   ;D
On the ground floor of the National Space Foundation... Colonize Mars!

Offline Eric Hedman

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #7 on: 01/28/2016 10:05 pm »
I voted 2040s because there is no funded plan yet in place.  Once there is a plan there will be revisions and delays because there always are on any significant project.  I might be overly optimistic even with 2040s.

Offline FishInferno

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #8 on: 01/28/2016 10:25 pm »
I voted 2020s because SpaceX, I don;t think they'll make their 2025 deadline, but 2027 or 2029 sounds about right.
Comparing SpaceX and SLS is like comparing paying people to plant fruit trees with merely digging holes and filling them.  - Robotbeat

Offline b ramsey

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #9 on: 01/28/2016 10:33 pm »
I voted 2020's but as someone mentioned earlier it's only because of Spacex. If not for them, then I would of voted 2060's or beyond.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #10 on: 01/28/2016 10:47 pm »
Voted for 2020's because I am getting older and want to go. 
2030s or 2040s is probably too long from now..
Better eat salad, better eat salad.. run run run run... say no to cake.   ;D

I agree, with the last line ;-) after seeing that Elon is sporting an overhang in Hong Kong similar to mine... and I voted 20's too... 30's might be too long away unless the Singularity becomes wide spread, and I get to do a Dr Who Regeneration :D in the mean time HAVE to Run Along ;-) ttfn... hey who hid my track shoes...

Gramps
Gramps "Earthling by Birth, Martian by the grace of The Elon." ~ "Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou ~ Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

Offline JazzFan

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #11 on: 01/29/2016 12:00 am »
My driver was the word "land".  I see at least 2 launchers being designed or built to get the humans to Mars but no lander is even realistically being considered at this time. I consider Dragon 2 to be a one way trip.  Made an assumption of 10 years to fund, design, and build a new lander.  Believe that a manned vehicle will go to the vicinity of Mars in the mid 30s.  Ergo, manned landings will be in the 2040s.  Just a wild guess, but you asked what I believed.
« Last Edit: 01/29/2016 12:02 am by JazzFan »

Offline AegeanBlue

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #12 on: 01/29/2016 03:41 pm »
Reposting from earlier. I actually put 2030s:

Late 2030s to early 2040s. Assuming of course that China's thrust to the Moon (if such a thing exists/materializes) doesn't divert all attention to the Moon. A piloted flyby/orbit around Mars in 10-15 years is very doable, assuming that we can test a Deep Space Habitat around the Moon/Earth-Sun Langrange points/Earth trailing orbit first. The main thing slowing things down of course is $$$.

Offline pippin

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #13 on: 01/29/2016 07:46 pm »
2050s.
Reasons?
Money. Research on long-term flight exposure out of LEO needed and increasing difficulty to find someone who wants to spend two years of their lives in a place without internet connection.

And no. While this is shorthand I mean it. All of it.
« Last Edit: 01/29/2016 07:47 pm by pippin »

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #14 on: 01/29/2016 10:26 pm »
2020s, because you don't have to be American to believe in the fortitude of determined Americans. Or adoptive Americans.

Besides, I'm young and sprightly. It's much easier to be a part of all of this if Mars happens sometime before the heat death of the universe.

Edit: Has anyone else noticed that the majority of the people in this poll no longer believe Mars is  longer "30 years away"? Egad, people. Exciting times.
« Last Edit: 01/29/2016 10:31 pm by The Amazing Catstronaut »
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Online Pipcard

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #15 on: 01/30/2016 01:06 am »
Edit: Has anyone else noticed that the majority of the people in this poll no longer believe Mars is  longer "30 years away"? Egad, people. Exciting times.
A lot of people in this thread from 2012 were basically saying that there wasn't enough (political) will or returns on investment to do it for at least the next couple decades.

I asked this very same question on the Kerbal Space Program about a year ago, many responses said that it would be "2040 or later" for the same reasons. Back then, I was expecting NASA to do it by themselves, and had said that SpaceX's "Mars colonization plan" had a "slim chance" of being successful, and I still do have doubts about that (i.e. expecting lots of people to pay $500,000 each —and probably even more when it isn't being fully used— to permanently move to conditions much worse than anywhere humans have ever lived in), but SpaceX does have the will, especially Elon Musk.

(And I mentioned Mars for Less there, which I had liked because it was supposed to use existing launchers, until I realized that expensive EVAs would be needed to assemble the Hab and Earth Return Vehicle)
« Last Edit: 01/30/2016 03:05 am by Pipcard »

Offline the_other_Doug

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #16 on: 01/30/2016 01:17 am »
I voted for the '30s, because I just can't see a big enough push for actual crewed landings in 14 years or less.  And while Chris has hinted at seeing the Mars architecture Musk is planning, none of us can really say anything about SpaceX's plans and how likely they are to happen in said 14 years or less.

Now, mind you, I just turned 60.  I would love to think that the first crewed Mars landings will happen by 2029, because I think I have a good shot at seeing age 74.  But a more likely target date of 2039 means trying to hang on to age 84, and I'm just not that sanguine about that happening.

So, trust me, I'm rooting as hard as I can for sometime in the '20s.  But realistically, unless SpaceX gives us a plan that can believably happen within the next 14 years or so, I'm just not seeing it happen before the '30s.

Of course, at some point, it will become a moot point for me.  I would like to say, at the end, that in one lifetime I saw both the first human setting foot on the Moon, and the first human setting foot on Mars.

I'm not as optimistic as I used to be.
-Doug  (With my shield, not yet upon it)

Online Pipcard

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #17 on: 01/30/2016 03:08 am »
Looking at my thread on the KSP forums again, I noticed that even though "2040 or later" seems like the response with the largest number of people, if you combine some of the options together into decades, you get:

2010s - 1.1%
2020s - 18.9%
2030s - 41.1% (more in the first half)
2040 or later - 38.9%

That was just poor poll planning on my part, especially with all the "2040 or later" responses being lumped together.
« Last Edit: 01/30/2016 03:14 am by Pipcard »

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #18 on: 01/31/2016 05:28 pm »
I think other Newspace ventures are important, but no serious company is so focused on Mars like SpaceX is. I voted 2020s. Otherwise 2040s is the defacto NASA plan (orbit Mars in 2030s).
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Offline philw1776

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Re: When do you believe humans will land on Mars?
« Reply #19 on: 01/31/2016 07:58 pm »
I do not for a minute believe that Musk will make his 2025 date.  He never makes his long pole forecasts (see FH) and tends to miss even his short term forecasts,  See FH April to late summer/end of year & see his thrice postponed MCT architecture announcement.

However I do believe in his ability to get things done and believe that he will persevere Ad Astra Per Aspera in his Mars ambitions, at least up to establishing a Mars base.  Here's my synod schedule

Jan 12 2025              SX site & resource exploratory missions begin
Feb 20 2027             
Mar 29 2029
May 4, 2031   0   ROBOTIC BASE PRECURSOR MISSION @ Previously 2020 missions scouted final site
June 27, 2033   1   FIRST MANNED LANDING  ~12 hominids
September 15, 2035   2   Establish base(s) with minimum crews +Cargo
November 19, 2037   3   
January 2, 2040           4   
February 6, 2042      5   
March 11, 2044           6   
April 17, 2046           7   
June 3, 2048           8   Final MARS HOME preparations for first mass colonization
August 14, 2050           9   First MCT fleet of colonists arrive at MARS HOME

I think SX is and will be cash constrained inhibiting rapid development.  There will be future loss of craft and RTF hiatuses.  BFR is the easiest R&D, "just" a big, returnable 1st stage.  BFS several times more difficult to engineer.  Then the time & expense for all the Mars base technology.

I wish Elon continued good health, otherwise all bets are off.
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