Author Topic: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars  (Read 136397 times)

Offline Impaler

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #40 on: 08/18/2015 03:00 am »
Let me make something clear. I think SpaceX will take about a decade to land something on Mars (and they'll do it with NASA funding) and I think that's pretty good. We live in a time where no private company has soft landed any spacecraft on any planetary body. (I guess the closest we've come is the Mars Phoenix lander, with the lead team at UA.) To go from nothing to something is a hell of a thing. If all goes well, I think Raptor will be a mature engine around 2022 and MCT will do an uncrewed roundtrip flight in the years following that. Early 2030s for first crew landing, and early 2040s for first colonists, sounds reasonable. All assuming very little setbacks. Think about it, 25 years before there's people living on Mars.

I concur, the "make sure you can send something there and back" bit is an obvious gateway the MCT must go through before even significant unmanned cargo delivery can begin, it is effectively the maiden flight of the vehicle and that won't happen for at least a decade. 

Anyone trying to pretend that a smaller vehicle (such as Dragon) landing on Mars and then some small sample return capsule blasting off (the most optimistic thing that could possibly happen in 2018) would fulfill that gateway is crazy.  Such a feat is well known to be possible today with current technology, what we need to know is if a HUGE Mars Lander/singe stage to Mars orbit can be done. 

P.S.  I don't think single-stage direct Earth return that can then survive reentry is even within the realm of physics, so the architecture described in the article is rubbish and very likely the author picked it up from these very forums, perhaps indirectly, as that very same thing has been bouncing around NSF.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2015 03:03 am by Impaler »

Offline llanitedave

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #41 on: 08/18/2015 03:05 am »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.


Not all potential extinction events will come from natural causes.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #42 on: 08/18/2015 03:49 am »
Let me make something clear. I think SpaceX will take about a decade to land something on Mars (and they'll do it with NASA funding) and I think that's pretty good. We live in a time where no private company has soft landed any spacecraft on any planetary body. (I guess the closest we've come is the Mars Phoenix lander, with the lead team at UA.) To go from nothing to something is a hell of a thing. If all goes well, I think Raptor will be a mature engine around 2022 and MCT will do an uncrewed roundtrip flight in the years following that. Early 2030s for first crew landing, and early 2040s for first colonists, sounds reasonable. All assuming very little setbacks. Think about it, 25 years before there's people living on Mars.
Just to drive QG's point home:
QuantumG's view here is ridiculously optimistic by NASA's current standards. But NASA's leadership is made of people who have worked in this industry for several decades... Several decades of broken dreams and promises that aren't kept will make you pretty dang cynical if the soul-sucking bureaucracy and petty politics doesn't.

...and I say all that as someone who REALLY loves working at NASA. :)

I personally think SpaceX has a chance at launching something to Mars by 2020, but not a MCT (and thus not a round-trip). Too many things can happen that delay such an event.

...but I think there's a decent chance the author of Wait But Why might win his bet that there will be a crewed mission that touches down on the Red Planet by January 1st, 2031... I wouldn't quite give it 50:50 odds, but close.
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Offline Robotbeat

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #43 on: 08/18/2015 03:50 am »
Also, the article falsely says that only Venera 13 took/sent pictures from Venus.
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Offline su27k

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #44 on: 08/18/2015 03:57 am »
None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

So? A steady state won't kill you, what kills you is a sudden change. Mars colony is prepared to live under Mars conditions, Earth civilization is not prepared to live in an Earth going through extinction events even if the result is better than Mars.

Quote
If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

I guess you also think the money for buying extra harddrive and backup software is better spent on theft prevention, fire prevention, computer virus prevention?

Offline llanitedave

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #45 on: 08/18/2015 04:00 am »
Also, predicting a supervolcano even a year in advance will do little to mitigate its effects.  And to prevent it?  Terraforming Mars would be cheaper.
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Offline Vultur

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #46 on: 08/18/2015 04:08 am »
Have you considered that the article quotes Elon as saying about ten cargo flights for each crew flight? If those are done sequentially, that's a loooong time. I expect he's planning to do them parallel, but not all parallel.

Well I was assuming that was a long term number and the original missions would have a small crew (maybe 6-10 people) but be mostly cargo - IE 90% cargo 10% crew.

Offline meekGee

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #47 on: 08/18/2015 04:11 am »

- Mankind has never truly regressed technologically.
- We have electric propulsion for asteroid deflection and the capability to detect big asteroids on a collision course early enough.
- There's enough food, we just waste it. Time to eat potatoes instead of meat every day.
- Do you know what percentage of the total workforce in the US in employed in agriculture? See the picture attached. When we're at 90% again I'm starting to get worried. By the way, the US is a net food exporter, so is Europe.
- So maybe we should spend 0.5% of GDP on reducing emissions instead of colonizing Mars...


Again, whether society is fragile or not was outside the original argument, but I'll bite just a little bit, once:

The abundance of food is a misleading number.  The problem is food distribution.  Most of the food is grown where most of society isn't.

Just consider how many trucks need to flow into a modern city each and every day just in order to keep it alive, and how much food reserve that city has.

If you have a serious glitch, like (for example) a really bad winter that screws up the electric wiring on a continental scale, than you're hosed - no fuel pumps, no monetary transactions, and very quickly no people willing to drive the trucks, and then no people willing or able to fix the electric system.  (Not to mention no running water, no sewage outflow, no refrigeration...)

Society is a lot more fragile than the basic food production numbers suggest.  Like many such numbers, they only make sense when everything is working nominally.  The minute the system breaks, they're no longer relevant.

As for:

The only solution that I've ever heard of is "multiple isolated islands".
Apart from the fact that a Mars colony would hardly be isolated and develop independently from Earth, if we really need "multiple isolated islands" to survive as a species we deserve to go extinct.

What can I say...  Again you're changing the topic.  "deserve"'s got nothing to do with it.  The question was whether a self-sufficient Mars colony is a viable back-up for Earth.

---

Mars is isolated enough that by necessity, it has to be independent, and near enough that it can also help.

The moon is too near, since next-day trips and real time communication are possible. It will therefore not be an independent backup.

Alpha Centauri is a bit hard to get to.

This leaves Mars and the asteroids as the more favorable locations.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2015 05:01 am by meekGee »
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Offline Impaler

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #48 on: 08/18/2015 06:31 am »
Also, predicting a supervolcano even a year in advance will do little to mitigate its effects.  And to prevent it?  Terraforming Mars would be cheaper.

Ridiculous, Mars is a BILLION times the size of a super volcano and located million of miles away from all out infrastructure while the Earth's super volcanoes are easily accessible.  Something like Yosemite contains a magma chambers of thousands of cubic miles of material that is only a fraction molten and is growing incredibly slowly, we could drill into it and relive gas pressure as well as remove heat in a process similar to how Geothermal power plants work.  To keep it from erupting all we would need to do is stabilize it, not make it disappear.  According to my math the growth rate of the magma chamber is 16,000 m^3 per year, aka a block 25 m on a side.

Offline FinalFrontier

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #49 on: 08/18/2015 06:55 am »
Also, predicting a supervolcano even a year in advance will do little to mitigate its effects.  And to prevent it?  Terraforming Mars would be cheaper.

Ridiculous, Mars is a BILLION times the size of a super volcano and located million of miles away from all out infrastructure while the Earth's super volcanoes are easily accessible.  Something like Yosemite contains a magma chambers of thousands of cubic miles of material that is only a fraction molten and is growing incredibly slowly, we could drill into it and relive gas pressure as well as remove heat in a process similar to how Geothermal power plants work.  To keep it from erupting all we would need to do is stabilize it, not make it disappear.  According to my math the growth rate of the magma chamber is 16,000 m^3 per year, aka a block 25 m on a side.
No existing or planned technology even on the cutting edge of high pressure formation drilling now exists or will exist in the next 25 years that can regulate and adequately frack the internal formations of a volcanic system.

And you would have to frack it because ryholitic lava usually is either A: Self Sealing, and closes any path you drill into it, or B: Becomes highly unstable when pressure is reduced and/or it is exposed to atmospheric gases.

A recent research project in the Campi Flegri super volcano complex in Napels involved drilling into the volcanic system, but "relieving or controlling" the internal pressure was impossible due to the magma sealing the hole constantly. Just pointing this out, its highly unlikely we will have technology capable of controlling or creating reasonable flow in high pressure volcanic systems like this in the next 30 years or more, not to mention it would be highly impractical for a variety of reasons anyway.

Citations
http://www.icdp-online.org/projects/world/europe/campi-flegrei/details/
http://www.science20.com/the_conversation/how_to_assess_a_supervolcano_without_making_it_erupt-152322

This is entirely beyond the scope of this forum or this thread, but I guess it was worth pointing out how much this would not work.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2015 06:56 am by FinalFrontier »
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Offline SVBarnard

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #50 on: 08/18/2015 09:22 am »



Most NSFers are "higher than average" in space technology awareness.

What he said I'm definitely "higher than average"  ;D

Offline SVBarnard

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #51 on: 08/18/2015 09:29 am »
A while back, saw a documentary that touched upon working conditions at Space X. Everyone (the ones on camera) agreed conditions are demanding but would not want to be anywhere else.

From reading elsewhere, it seems typical of many successful places. Then there are successful places that workers don't seem to feel that working there is demanding.

I was always told, vote with my feet.

link for this documentary please as i would very much love to watch it thanks?

Offline JamesH

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #52 on: 08/18/2015 11:24 am »
As with other 'interesting' jobs, if you really want to be involved with something, you are willing to take the hit.

I once interviewed at TAG Mclaren, who make the electronics for F1 cars, and the working hours were horrible, and the pay average. I wasn't willing to do take it on, but many many people are, because its something they really want to be involved with (F1 in  this case).

If younger, and familyless, (and in the US!) I'd be willing to take on a jobs at SpaceX.

Offline WmThomas

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #53 on: 08/18/2015 01:03 pm »
One thing the article made clear, Musk doesn't have some fancy master plan for a Mars colony.

What he thinks is that if the price of the trip can fall enough, then a colony will be possible. He's focused on reducing the price of the trip. He's got a vague idea of how an MCT might be used. But beyond that, he's got no more than any Mars colony fan does.

Mind you. lowering the price of a trip to Mars is mega-fantastic, and plenty to achieve.

Offline meekGee

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #54 on: 08/18/2015 02:56 pm »
One thing the article made clear, Musk doesn't have some fancy master plan for a Mars colony.

What he thinks is that if the price of the trip can fall enough, then a colony will be possible. He's focused on reducing the price of the trip. He's got a vague idea of how an MCT might be used. But beyond that, he's got no more than any Mars colony fan does.

Mind you. lowering the price of a trip to Mars is mega-fantastic, and plenty to achieve.

Where did you get that?

I got the impression the author had no special access to information and basically put together a wide and shallow overview from general knowledge.

There's the bit about inflatable structures for solar panels, but that's about it.

I doubt that there are blueprints for a Mars colony in a secret room at SpaceX, but I'm pretty sure there's a "master plan", in that it extends beyond "We land MCTs and then magic happens".

If you were Musk, and had two large engineering organizations at your disposal (and also working on some smaller projects such as Hyperloop and others) - wouldn't you have some people working both on high-level design and on obvious critical problems?
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Offline Spaniard

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #55 on: 08/18/2015 03:05 pm »

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.
Sure, but unprepared humanity could become extint.

An alternative is to build "ultrahard" colonies on Earth to avoid extintion. Places like underground or undersea cities. Very expensive in any case.

But Mars has multiple objetives. Avoid extintion, open the space barrier (a future source of scarce elements), a potential new home like Earth through future terraforming...

On long term, (millions of years) Earth is doomed in any case. So, why don't address all the problems at the same time.

Sooner better than later.

Offline Spaniard

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #56 on: 08/18/2015 03:18 pm »
I doubt that there are blueprints for a Mars colony in a secret room at SpaceX, but I'm pretty sure there's a "master plan", in that it extends beyond "We land MCTs and then magic happens".
It can't exists a detailed plan if a lot of unkown technologies and variables are involved.

I suppose that they have a bunch of ideas.

Long term goals, medium term ideas and short term plans.

Plans is that you develop.
Ideas is that you research.
Goals is that allows you to focus R&D in the right direction.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2015 03:28 pm by Spaniard »

Offline Nilof

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #57 on: 08/18/2015 03:39 pm »
I think the highlight of the article was Musk's e-mail, because we got some new information(boldfaced the important part):

Quote from: Elon Musk
Yeah, these are seemingly absurd percentage improvements, however not impossible. The critical elements of the solution are rocket reusability and low cost propellant (CH4 and O2 at an O/F ratio of ~3.8 ). And, of course, making the return propellant on Mars, which has a handy CO2 atmosphere and lots of H2O frozen in the soil.

The design goal is technically 100+ metric tons of useful cargo per flight, so maybe more than 100 people can be taken. Depends on how much support mass is needed per person and the luggage allowable.

Avionics, sensors, communications, aspects of vehicle structure, landing pads and a few other things get better with scale, plus it is more fun to be on a cruise ship than a bus, so I suspect that the 100 people per flight number grows a lot over time, maybe to several hundred. Also, we could subsidize the equivalent of economy by charging a lot more for first class.

Factor in all of the above and getting below $100k/ton or person eventually is conceivable, as the trip cost is then dominated by propellant, which is mostly liquid oxygen at a mere $40/ton (although a lot of it is needed per useful ton of cargo). That would be really awesome!

Looks like the Raptor will run oxidizer rich. That puts its niche even closer to the BE-4.
For a variable Isp spacecraft running at constant power and constant acceleration, the mass ratio is linear in delta-v.   Δv = ve0(MR-1). Or equivalently: Δv = vef PMF. Also, this is energy-optimal for a fixed delta-v and mass ratio.

Offline neoforce

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #58 on: 08/18/2015 03:44 pm »

<...>

I got the impression the author had no special access to information and basically put together a wide and shallow overview from general knowledge.

<...>

There is no doubt that this is a wide and shallow overview and only there was only limited new information (like what Nilof just posted.)  But clearly the author had special access.  He had time with Elon.  It just didn't result in vast amounts of new information for anyone informed (like here at NSF) and there was clearly still speculation in the article.

Offline nadreck

Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #59 on: 08/18/2015 05:19 pm »

Looks like the Raptor will run oxidizer rich. That puts its niche even closer to the BE-4.

see my post on the MCT discussion thread
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

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