Author Topic: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars  (Read 136392 times)

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #20 on: 08/17/2015 08:30 pm »
Made this a standalone thread. That's a ton of work to get that done, so least we can do is give it its own thread.
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Offline cartman

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #21 on: 08/17/2015 08:56 pm »
An excellent story, very well written. It confirms that the MCT will be a two stage rocket, and that there will be 2 kinds of second stages, the spacecraft that goes to Mars and the tanker.

Quote
the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces—the giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft. The first stage will launch a spacecraft into orbit, then come back down (landing propulsively), refuel, undergo a bit of maintenance, and head back up with another spacecraft. This will go on for a while in the weeks leading up to the point where Earth and Mars are next to each other in orbit. Then SpaceX will send up a tanker of some kind to refuel the orbiting spacecraft (which also functions as the second stage rocket, so it’ll have spent a lot of its fuel getting itself into orbit).

Actually, I don't think it confirms that.  It seems to me the author is speculating the same way we do here. You left out the key first sentence of the paragraph:

Quote
No one’s exactly sure how the transportation will work, but it’ll likely be something like this:  the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces—the giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft.
Yes, you are right, I should not have skipped the first sentence. As he had access to Elon, I think that the way he speculates means that the situation about the MCT is still the same it was when he gave that speech where he announced the tankers and stuff(or that Elon does not want to spoil his own MCT architecture announcement that is supposed to come this year)

Offline nadreck

Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #22 on: 08/17/2015 08:57 pm »
So the 2018 launch window sounds promising!

Quote
Before anything with people starts, there will be a preliminary phase where SpaceX sends spacecraft to Mars without any people. The first step, Musk told me, would be to “send an automated spaceship to Mars just to make sure you can send something there and back”—this should happen before 2020. Then, there would be a handful of unmanned cargo missions to bring equipment, habitats, and supplies, so that when the first people start arriving, they’ll be able to not die—they’ll need access to water, a place to live, the tools to convert compounds on Mars to oxygen, fertilizer to grow crops, etc

and

Quote
The next time Earth laps Mars and they’re side by side is 2016—too soon to do anything. But when it happens again in the summer of 2018, don’t be surprised if a vehicle with a SpaceX logo on it touches down on Mars. Musk has thrown out a rough prediction of 2025 or 2027 for the Neil Armstrong of Mars to take that famous first step onto the planet.

So if there is a single launch for the 2018 window (and obviously done with an FHE or at least and FH2R) we are almost certainly talking about a Dragon derived lander, and, maybe, a few test units of the Mars communications constellation.

I doubt if anything raptor based will be ready for the 2020 launch window, but I can't imagine SpaceX not sending several vehicles at this opportunity, hopefully to survey the top few initial settlement location candidates and maybe perform ISRU experiments (core samples too I hope).

I wonder, if for sentimental reasons, Musk sends up a miniature green house by dragon lander.

Yes this is very optimistic and ambitious, but then so was Kennedy to May 25th 1961 (and for that matter Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. a couple of years later that set an ambitious social goal that no one expected to be realized as quickly as it was).  I do believe it is possible, but not easy, not a given, and because of those caveats, incredibly exciting.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline meekGee

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #23 on: 08/17/2015 09:02 pm »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.

Oli - the argument has never been that.

It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.

This only became true once society became a single entity.  A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.

The idea that advanced societies would collapse as a result of such an event is nonsense propagated by popular culture because it makes for better entertainment.

Even if there's the danger of collapse, its an argument for better civil defense and not for putting "helpers" millions of miles away on some planet where they can hardly survive on their own.

A sufficiently advanced society probably wouldn't collapse.

However, our society simply is not advanced enough to keep itself out of the dark ages should an extinction level event occur.

We don't have rockets to intercept asteroids, we have insufficient food reserves to survive a 50% drop in food production (after all, we have trouble feeding the whole world now!), but most of all, who do you think will survive? The huge majority of the technologically advanced parts of the earth would be completely hopeless fending for themselves., and yet they are the ones who have the MONEY to survive. It would also need a global programme to protect the planet, and we cannot even sort out getting emissions low enough to stock climate change.

I'm not optimistic.

Society is made up of sub-societies (countries/nations).

The sub-societies are in competition.  This stands in contrast to protecting the entire society against long-term catastrophes.

Thus, a prisoner's dilemma.

For example:

If EVERYONE turned their swords into plowshares, it'd be awesome. Everyone would get rid of their armies and build solar fields and electric cars instead.  yay.

But if SOME countries choose not to do so, they gain an advantage, and spell doom for the other ones, on a much shorter time scale.  So of course nobody does, and nobody has serious strategic reserves, or redundant anything.

And it gets worse, since within the sub-societies, political parties fall into the same trap and spend their resources on meaningless battles that prevent them from acting on long-term goals, since if you lose the next election, nothing matters anyway.

So complex societies don't behave in a cooperative manner, and are therefore at risk.

--

The only solution that I've ever heard of is "multiple isolated islands".

You can't beat game theory within a single game, but the physical isolation of the planets basically prevents the possibility of real-time communication, co-government, easy transportation, and significant commerce.

That's why a sufficiently advanced society can be safe - it advanced enough to spawn new isolated societies - so that the speed of light and the rocket equation conspire to prevent the basket from encompassing all the eggs.

---

And that's why we need to colonize Mars, k?
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline savuporo

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #24 on: 08/17/2015 10:28 pm »
I thought we've known this a long time ago... The surprising parts for me are:
1. A robotic mission to Mars before 2020: Timeline is a bit tight...
Unless there is a Dr. Evil secret undersea lab somewhere where all the development for this has been going on for years, or they somehow are planning to get a running start, this does not sound feasible at all.
Orion - the first and only manned not-too-deep-space craft

Offline QuantumG

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #25 on: 08/17/2015 11:31 pm »
This author is the epitome of Too Long Didn't Read.. his rambling is so long-winded and unfocused that my web browser actually threatens to crash when I try to load these pages, that's impressive! But I'm actually reading it he's finally gotten to the point.

Quote from: Tim Urban
Before anything with people starts, there will be a preliminary phase where SpaceX sends spacecraft to Mars without any people. The first step, Musk told me, would be to “send an automated spaceship to Mars just to make sure you can send something there and back”—this should happen before 2020.

This is ridiculous. The Falcon Heavy, which is basically just a triple core of an existing flying vehicle, has failed to get to the launch pad for 4 years. We're supposed to believe that a brand new vehicle (the MCT), with an engine (Raptor) that doesn't even exist yet (and uses technology that has never been done before) is going to be ready within the next 5 years? And it's going to land on Mars and return to Earth? This strains credibility (but what does Elon Musk say that doesn't?)

Quote from: Tim Urban
Then something big will happen. Someone—probably SpaceX, probably in about ten years—will send the first crew of people to Mars.

Way to hedge there dude. Either SpaceX is going to do it (and your ten years is merely fanboi enthusiasm) or someone else is going to do it (and ten years is just plain wrong) or no-one is going to do it (most likely).

Quote from: Tim Urban
The next time Earth laps Mars and they’re side by side is 2016—too soon to do anything. But when it happens again in the summer of 2018, don’t be surprised if a vehicle with a SpaceX logo on it touches down on Mars.

Ok, this is remotely credible. I do notice the sleight of hand though.. we've gone from talking about MCT doing a round-trip in 2020 to "something" landing in 2018.

Quote from: Tim Urban
Musk has thrown out a rough prediction of 2025 or 2027 for the Neil Armstrong of Mars to take that famous first step onto the planet.

Uh huh.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline nadreck

Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #26 on: 08/17/2015 11:51 pm »
QG where did it say MCT by 2020? It said automated craft (generic) which you grudgingly admit is a possibility later in your post.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline QuantumG

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #27 on: 08/17/2015 11:55 pm »
QG where did it say MCT by 2020? It said automated craft (generic) which you grudgingly admit is a possibility later in your post.

.. and return to Earth. You're suggesting some other vehicle is being built by SpaceX to land on Mars and return to Earth? You better hope he's talking about MCT in 2020 or the landing of humans on Mars just 2 or 3 flights later is extra silly.


Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline nadreck

Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #28 on: 08/18/2015 12:04 am »
QG where did it say MCT by 2020? It said automated craft (generic) which you grudgingly admit is a possibility later in your post.

.. and return to Earth. You're suggesting some other vehicle is being built by SpaceX to land on Mars and return to Earth? You better hope he's talking about MCT in 2020 or the landing of humans on Mars just 2 or 3 flights later is extra silly.

I am suggesting 1 flight at the 2018 launch window, at least a half dozen in 2020 all FH and Dragon based, sample return from some of the 2020 ones a la Red Dragon concept, and maybe the first MCT in the 2023 window. More likely 2025.
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Offline savuporo

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #29 on: 08/18/2015 12:18 am »
I am suggesting 1 flight at the 2018 launch window..
2018 launch window is only about 32 months away. These windows are known to be notoriously unforgiving about schedule slips.
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Offline Oli

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #30 on: 08/18/2015 12:21 am »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.

Oli - the argument has never been that.

It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.

This only became true once society became a single entity.  A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.

The idea that advanced societies would collapse as a result of such an event is nonsense propagated by popular culture because it makes for better entertainment.

Even if there's the danger of collapse, its an argument for better civil defense and not for putting "helpers" millions of miles away on some planet where they can hardly survive on their own.

A sufficiently advanced society probably wouldn't collapse.

However, our society simply is not advanced enough to keep itself out of the dark ages should an extinction level event occur.

We don't have rockets to intercept asteroids, we have insufficient food reserves to survive a 50% drop in food production (after all, we have trouble feeding the whole world now!), but most of all, who do you think will survive? The huge majority of the technologically advanced parts of the earth would be completely hopeless fending for themselves., and yet they are the ones who have the MONEY to survive. It would also need a global programme to protect the planet, and we cannot even sort out getting emissions low enough to stock climate change.

I'm not optimistic.

- Mankind has never truly regressed technologically.
- We have electric propulsion for asteroid deflection and the capability to detect big asteroids on a collision course early enough.
- There's enough food, we just waste it. Time to eat potatoes instead of meat every day.
- Do you know what percentage of the total workforce in the US in employed in agriculture? See the picture attached. When we're at 90% again I'm starting to get worried. By the way, the US is a net food exporter, so is Europe.
- So maybe we should spend 0.5% of GDP on reducing emissions instead of colonizing Mars...

The only solution that I've ever heard of is "multiple isolated islands".

Apart from the fact that a Mars colony would hardly be isolated and develop independently from Earth, if we really need "multiple isolated islands" to survive as a species we deserve to go extinct.
« Last Edit: 08/18/2015 12:28 am by Oli »

Offline nadreck

Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #31 on: 08/18/2015 12:55 am »
I am suggesting 1 flight at the 2018 launch window..
2018 launch window is only about 32 months away. These windows are known to be notoriously unforgiving about schedule slips.

Yes, we already slipped the 2016 one  8)
It is all well and good to quote those things that made it past your confirmation bias that other people wrote, but this is a discussion board damnit! Let us know what you think! And why!

Online PreferToLurk

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #32 on: 08/18/2015 01:28 am »

- Mankind has never truly regressed technologically.
- We have electric propulsion for asteroid deflection and the capability to detect big asteroids on a collision course early enough.
- There's enough food, we just waste it. Time to eat potatoes instead of meat every day.

*Snip*

Apart from the fact that a Mars colony would hardly be isolated and develop independently from Earth, if we really need "multiple isolated islands" to survive as a species we deserve to go extinct.

Really? your argument is that its a waste of money because it's unnecessary? 

First off, it's Musk reinvesting private enterprise profit.  So you don't get a vote.
Second off, I don't buy your reassurances that we've got it all under control.

I am not confident that we have actually sighted all the truly dangerous meteors, or that a future detection would happen far enough out to defend against.  All it takes is one.

What about supervolcanos? Eventually one is going to go off.  What if the seismic effects from one end up triggering multiple?  Even if it's only one, the yellowstone volcano would devastate the US on epic proportions.  The economic hit alone could destabilize the world leading to WW3. 

What about a supervirus?  It is not inconceivable to imagine a global pandemic taking out 10% or more of the population. Society survives, but economies are destroyed by the mass quarantines.

How about (god forbid) grey goo?  A scientific experiment creates strangelets which consume the entire planet in a massive chain reaction? 

Ok, some of these are less realistic than others -- but they have a non-zero probability.

Adding to the anxiety is the growing concern over the failure of SETI programs to detect advanced life. The theory goes that we don't hear anything because they don't exist - and they don't exist because advanced civilizations don't tend to last very long before some extinction event sets them back. Maybe we already made it passed the "great filter" but maybe we haven't taken the test yet.  How sure are you that we've already passed the test? 

Getting a self sustaining colony on another planet is a worthwhile insurance policy - IMHO.





Offline QuantumG

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #33 on: 08/18/2015 01:32 am »
Let me make something clear. I think SpaceX will take about a decade to land something on Mars (and they'll do it with NASA funding) and I think that's pretty good. We live in a time where no private company has soft landed any spacecraft on any planetary body. (I guess the closest we've come is the Mars Phoenix lander, with the lead team at UA.) To go from nothing to something is a hell of a thing. If all goes well, I think Raptor will be a mature engine around 2022 and MCT will do an uncrewed roundtrip flight in the years following that. Early 2030s for first crew landing, and early 2040s for first colonists, sounds reasonable. All assuming very little setbacks. Think about it, 25 years before there's people living on Mars.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Vultur

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #34 on: 08/18/2015 02:02 am »
I personally expect first landing of "something" by SpaceX (probably a modified Dragon) in either 2018 or 2020.

BFR probably in 7-8 years (Musk said 5 IIRC but things slip).

First MCT flight probably shortly after that... likely 2025 launch window, *maybe* 2023.

So first manned flight in 2025-7 doesn't seem unreasonable. On the optimistic end of the reasonable range, but not outside it.

Offline Vultur

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #35 on: 08/18/2015 02:06 am »
If all goes well, I think Raptor will be a mature engine around 2022 and MCT will do an uncrewed roundtrip flight in the years following that.

That sounds pretty reasonable.

Quote
Early 2030s for first crew landing, and early 2040s for first colonists

I can't see 10 years from Raptor to first crew or from first crew to first colonists... more like 4-6 years/2-3 synodic periods each.

And it's possible that the first crew WILL go to colonize (though not be paying colonists)...

Offline QuantumG

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #36 on: 08/18/2015 02:13 am »
Have you considered that the article quotes Elon as saying about ten cargo flights for each crew flight? If those are done sequentially, that's a loooong time. I expect he's planning to do them parallel, but not all parallel.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline Dave G

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #37 on: 08/18/2015 02:28 am »
Think about it, 25 years before there's people living on Mars.

I can see this happening.  Not 80,000 people, but a permanent settlement of some sort within 25 years.  And I think SpaceX will play a big role in enabling that.

Offline QuantumG

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #38 on: 08/18/2015 02:30 am »
Think about it, 25 years before there's people living on Mars.

I can see this happening.  Not 80,000 people, but a permanent settlement of some sort within 25 years.  And I think SpaceX will play a big role in enabling that.

I think that would be a fantastic achievement, and can imagine it growing over time.
Human spaceflight is basically just LARPing now.

Offline cro-magnon gramps

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Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #39 on: 08/18/2015 02:51 am »
Elon did say a fleet of cargo landers, returning to Earth after delivery. how many iterations, 2-3.. perhaps building up from as few as 2 to 10-12 landers... then landing the early colonists, to help set up the infrastructure... So what is in these early cargo landers... aside from habitats. ISRU, and other basic necessities... what other stuff would one want... given the acceleration of technology, in 10-15 years it could be stuff we here haven't even dreamed of, that someone out there is on the cusp of developing... but I'm sure that there will be leading edge tech, health care, food production, transportation, computers, and such... and it will keep growing... until the Mars Settlement starts producing there own, which I don't think will be all that long, given our present level of technology.

one thing about this article I noticed right off the bat... it's audience was not US here at NSF... it was aimed at the people who don't know anything... it led them by the hand from WHY, to Where and How.... there were a few nuggets, but very few... as has been pointed out, most of the articles speculation we already know about... I think it is wrong to criticize the author, based on what WE KNOW... For the audience he has, it was a great piece of modern writing, and I just wish it had put a sign post: For More Information Go To NSF.com... just my opinion...
Gramps "Earthling by Birth, Martian by the grace of The Elon." ~ "Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but it has not solved one yet." Maya Angelou ~ Tony Benn: "Hope is the fuel of progress and fear is the prison in which you put yourself."

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