Quote from: cartman on 08/17/2015 03:27 pmAn excellent story, very well written. It confirms that the MCT will be a two stage rocket, and that there will be 2 kinds of second stages, the spacecraft that goes to Mars and the tanker.Quotethe Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces—the giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft. The first stage will launch a spacecraft into orbit, then come back down (landing propulsively), refuel, undergo a bit of maintenance, and head back up with another spacecraft. This will go on for a while in the weeks leading up to the point where Earth and Mars are next to each other in orbit. Then SpaceX will send up a tanker of some kind to refuel the orbiting spacecraft (which also functions as the second stage rocket, so it’ll have spent a lot of its fuel getting itself into orbit).Actually, I don't think it confirms that. It seems to me the author is speculating the same way we do here. You left out the key first sentence of the paragraph:QuoteNo one’s exactly sure how the transportation will work, but it’ll likely be something like this: the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces—the giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft.
An excellent story, very well written. It confirms that the MCT will be a two stage rocket, and that there will be 2 kinds of second stages, the spacecraft that goes to Mars and the tanker.Quotethe Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces—the giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft. The first stage will launch a spacecraft into orbit, then come back down (landing propulsively), refuel, undergo a bit of maintenance, and head back up with another spacecraft. This will go on for a while in the weeks leading up to the point where Earth and Mars are next to each other in orbit. Then SpaceX will send up a tanker of some kind to refuel the orbiting spacecraft (which also functions as the second stage rocket, so it’ll have spent a lot of its fuel getting itself into orbit).
the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces—the giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft. The first stage will launch a spacecraft into orbit, then come back down (landing propulsively), refuel, undergo a bit of maintenance, and head back up with another spacecraft. This will go on for a while in the weeks leading up to the point where Earth and Mars are next to each other in orbit. Then SpaceX will send up a tanker of some kind to refuel the orbiting spacecraft (which also functions as the second stage rocket, so it’ll have spent a lot of its fuel getting itself into orbit).
No one’s exactly sure how the transportation will work, but it’ll likely be something like this: the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces—the giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft.
Before anything with people starts, there will be a preliminary phase where SpaceX sends spacecraft to Mars without any people. The first step, Musk told me, would be to “send an automated spaceship to Mars just to make sure you can send something there and back”—this should happen before 2020. Then, there would be a handful of unmanned cargo missions to bring equipment, habitats, and supplies, so that when the first people start arriving, they’ll be able to not die—they’ll need access to water, a place to live, the tools to convert compounds on Mars to oxygen, fertilizer to grow crops, etc
The next time Earth laps Mars and they’re side by side is 2016—too soon to do anything. But when it happens again in the summer of 2018, don’t be surprised if a vehicle with a SpaceX logo on it touches down on Mars. Musk has thrown out a rough prediction of 2025 or 2027 for the Neil Armstrong of Mars to take that famous first step onto the planet.
Quote from: Oli on 08/17/2015 05:44 pmQuote from: meekGee on 08/17/2015 04:50 pmQuote from: Oli on 08/17/2015 04:38 pmQuote from: Bargemanos on 08/17/2015 09:11 amSpaceX post is up.http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.htmlNone of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.Oli - the argument has never been that.It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.This only became true once society became a single entity. A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.The idea that advanced societies would collapse as a result of such an event is nonsense propagated by popular culture because it makes for better entertainment. Even if there's the danger of collapse, its an argument for better civil defense and not for putting "helpers" millions of miles away on some planet where they can hardly survive on their own.A sufficiently advanced society probably wouldn't collapse.However, our society simply is not advanced enough to keep itself out of the dark ages should an extinction level event occur. We don't have rockets to intercept asteroids, we have insufficient food reserves to survive a 50% drop in food production (after all, we have trouble feeding the whole world now!), but most of all, who do you think will survive? The huge majority of the technologically advanced parts of the earth would be completely hopeless fending for themselves., and yet they are the ones who have the MONEY to survive. It would also need a global programme to protect the planet, and we cannot even sort out getting emissions low enough to stock climate change. I'm not optimistic.
Quote from: meekGee on 08/17/2015 04:50 pmQuote from: Oli on 08/17/2015 04:38 pmQuote from: Bargemanos on 08/17/2015 09:11 amSpaceX post is up.http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.htmlNone of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.Oli - the argument has never been that.It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.This only became true once society became a single entity. A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.The idea that advanced societies would collapse as a result of such an event is nonsense propagated by popular culture because it makes for better entertainment. Even if there's the danger of collapse, its an argument for better civil defense and not for putting "helpers" millions of miles away on some planet where they can hardly survive on their own.
Quote from: Oli on 08/17/2015 04:38 pmQuote from: Bargemanos on 08/17/2015 09:11 amSpaceX post is up.http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.htmlNone of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.Oli - the argument has never been that.It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.This only became true once society became a single entity. A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.
Quote from: Bargemanos on 08/17/2015 09:11 amSpaceX post is up.http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.htmlNone of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.
SpaceX post is up.http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html
I thought we've known this a long time ago... The surprising parts for me are:1. A robotic mission to Mars before 2020: Timeline is a bit tight...
Before anything with people starts, there will be a preliminary phase where SpaceX sends spacecraft to Mars without any people. The first step, Musk told me, would be to “send an automated spaceship to Mars just to make sure you can send something there and back”—this should happen before 2020.
Then something big will happen. Someone—probably SpaceX, probably in about ten years—will send the first crew of people to Mars.
The next time Earth laps Mars and they’re side by side is 2016—too soon to do anything. But when it happens again in the summer of 2018, don’t be surprised if a vehicle with a SpaceX logo on it touches down on Mars.
Musk has thrown out a rough prediction of 2025 or 2027 for the Neil Armstrong of Mars to take that famous first step onto the planet.
QG where did it say MCT by 2020? It said automated craft (generic) which you grudgingly admit is a possibility later in your post.
Quote from: nadreck on 08/17/2015 11:51 pmQG where did it say MCT by 2020? It said automated craft (generic) which you grudgingly admit is a possibility later in your post... and return to Earth. You're suggesting some other vehicle is being built by SpaceX to land on Mars and return to Earth? You better hope he's talking about MCT in 2020 or the landing of humans on Mars just 2 or 3 flights later is extra silly.
I am suggesting 1 flight at the 2018 launch window..
The only solution that I've ever heard of is "multiple isolated islands".
Quote from: nadreck on 08/18/2015 12:04 amI am suggesting 1 flight at the 2018 launch window..2018 launch window is only about 32 months away. These windows are known to be notoriously unforgiving about schedule slips.
- Mankind has never truly regressed technologically.- We have electric propulsion for asteroid deflection and the capability to detect big asteroids on a collision course early enough.- There's enough food, we just waste it. Time to eat potatoes instead of meat every day.*Snip*Apart from the fact that a Mars colony would hardly be isolated and develop independently from Earth, if we really need "multiple isolated islands" to survive as a species we deserve to go extinct.
If all goes well, I think Raptor will be a mature engine around 2022 and MCT will do an uncrewed roundtrip flight in the years following that.
Early 2030s for first crew landing, and early 2040s for first colonists
Think about it, 25 years before there's people living on Mars.
Quote from: QuantumG on 08/18/2015 01:32 amThink about it, 25 years before there's people living on Mars.I can see this happening. Not 80,000 people, but a permanent settlement of some sort within 25 years. And I think SpaceX will play a big role in enabling that.