Author Topic: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars  (Read 136395 times)

Offline Bargemanos

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 331
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 108
  • Likes Given: 684

Offline The Amazing Catstronaut

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1065
  • Arsia Mons, Mars, Sol IV, Inner Solar Solar System, Sol system.
  • Liked: 759
  • Likes Given: 626
Resident feline spaceflight expert. Knows nothing of value about human spaceflight.

Offline Mongo62

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1072
  • Liked: 834
  • Likes Given: 156
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #2 on: 08/17/2015 01:19 pm »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

In a word: fantastic.

The interesting stuff starts in part 3 of 5. The first two parts are basic background information that I expect everyone here already knows.

Offline Owlon

  • Math/Science Teacher
  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 315
  • Vermont, USA
  • Liked: 167
  • Likes Given: 118
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #3 on: 08/17/2015 01:22 pm »
Quite long and comprehensive. It has several bits that seem to give direct confirmation from Musk on some occasionally-debated points, like solar vs nuclear power on Mars.

 "Nuclear is a possibility, but Musk thinks it値l be mostly solar. Early on, panels will need to be brought from Earth, and Musk has the idea to make them flexible and inflatable so they can be rolled up (like one of those upsetting party blowers)."

This has come up a silly number of times in the MCT thread.

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14152
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14030
  • Likes Given: 1391
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #4 on: 08/17/2015 01:42 pm »
... the guy is an administrator, the guy making things happen.  The most successful in history was a lawyer (Mr. Webb).  Musk is owner of a company that makes a booster.  He's talking about mars and what not, but the numbers are all hidden and he is interested in doing military work, based on actions to date.

... but the fellow everyone is talking about is more a banker than anything else.  Historically, that's what he was up to.  And is still, here and there.

That is what bothers me, that a single person is in control.  Anything goes wrong with the guy... nix a decade and a billion plus.  One program after another.  No landing on the moon.

He could demand the final straw of overtime, have a stroke, get hit by a bus, or whatever.  Start over.  The other companies are all starting over.  The SI valley model is not good.

So to summarize (and ignoring Heinlein):
- SpaceX has "taken" a billion+ dollars which is now at risk
- Musk is just a billionaire playboy financing SpaceX
- SpaceX only makes a booster
- The whole "Mars thing" is a ruse
- The company is about to collapse from internal strife because of overtime

All these claims have been made before by other concern trolls and industry insiders. 

At least you concentrated it all into 2-3 short posts, for which I am grateful.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline MattMason

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1062
  • Space Enthusiast
  • Indiana
  • Liked: 772
  • Likes Given: 2011
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #5 on: 08/17/2015 01:56 pm »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

I don't think there's a greater story ever written about the human race's true plight, and how one man just might make the difference. The I.T. references, as an I.T. guy myself, are crystal clear. I don't think anyone has clearly described Musk's determination as well as this story. And I'm only 3/4 through this.
"Why is the logo on the side of a rocket so important?"
"So you can find the pieces." -Jim, the Steely Eyed

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14152
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14030
  • Likes Given: 1391
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #6 on: 08/17/2015 02:04 pm »
Quite long and comprehensive. It has several bits that seem to give direct confirmation from Musk on some occasionally-debated points, like solar vs nuclear power on Mars.

 "Nuclear is a possibility, but Musk thinks it値l be mostly solar. Early on, panels will need to be brought from Earth, and Musk has the idea to make them flexible and inflatable so they can be rolled up (like one of those upsetting party blowers)."

This has come up a silly number of times in the MCT thread.

It's a long and fluffy piece, very useful for the general public, not so much for the average reader here.

As for solar/nuclear power and how - if I had one question I can have Musk answer, that would be it.  What is the power architecture he has in mind. 

--

Oh - and why was this post being delayed and put on hold till today?
« Last Edit: 08/17/2015 02:15 pm by meekGee »
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline su27k

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6414
  • Liked: 9098
  • Likes Given: 885
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #7 on: 08/17/2015 02:17 pm »
Quite long and comprehensive. It has several bits that seem to give direct confirmation from Musk on some occasionally-debated points, like solar vs nuclear power on Mars.

 "Nuclear is a possibility, but Musk thinks it値l be mostly solar. Early on, panels will need to be brought from Earth, and Musk has the idea to make them flexible and inflatable so they can be rolled up (like one of those upsetting party blowers)."

This has come up a silly number of times in the MCT thread.

I thought we've known this a long time ago... The surprising parts for me are:
1. A robotic mission to Mars before 2020: Timeline is a bit tight...
2. Minimal time to reach Mars is 3 months: Hmmm, not going to happen?
3. MCT will remain on Mars for 2 years and return in the next window: First time I heard of this.

Offline cartman

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 534
  • Greece
  • Liked: 524
  • Likes Given: 10373
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #8 on: 08/17/2015 03:27 pm »
An excellent story, very well written. It confirms that the MCT will be a two stage rocket, and that there will be 2 kinds of second stages, the spacecraft that goes to Mars and the tanker.

Quote
the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces葉he giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft. The first stage will launch a spacecraft into orbit, then come back down (landing propulsively), refuel, undergo a bit of maintenance, and head back up with another spacecraft. This will go on for a while in the weeks leading up to the point where Earth and Mars are next to each other in orbit. Then SpaceX will send up a tanker of some kind to refuel the orbiting spacecraft (which also functions as the second stage rocket, so it値l have spent a lot of its fuel getting itself into orbit).

Offline MattMason

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1062
  • Space Enthusiast
  • Indiana
  • Liked: 772
  • Likes Given: 2011
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #9 on: 08/17/2015 03:28 pm »
Quite long and comprehensive. It has several bits that seem to give direct confirmation from Musk on some occasionally-debated points, like solar vs nuclear power on Mars.

 "Nuclear is a possibility, but Musk thinks it値l be mostly solar. Early on, panels will need to be brought from Earth, and Musk has the idea to make them flexible and inflatable so they can be rolled up (like one of those upsetting party blowers)."

This has come up a silly number of times in the MCT thread.


It's a long and fluffy piece, very useful for the general public, not so much for the average reader here.

As for solar/nuclear power and how - if I had one question I can have Musk answer, that would be it.  What is the power architecture he has in mind. 

--

Oh - and why was this post being delayed and put on hold till today?

What's the "average reader" here?

I'm calling you out on this not to pick on you, of course, but to emphasize what this piece is trying to point out.

Most NSFers are "higher than average" in space technology awareness. There's the space-enthusiast types like me that can tell you the names and faces of the first three astronaut groups, that cringe at technical and historical goofs in space docudramas or science fiction, and might even be able to highlight every manned American spaceflight from Mercury to Apollo (or many highlights of STS, depending on your age). I'd guess 75% of us are this, just on a bell curve of probability.

Then there are the space-industry folks that's worked directly or indirectly with the stuff, who calls out we enthusiasts when we get the basics wrong. We know who these people are and love that they're here. That's maybe another 10-15%, and you might be one of them, doing what you should do for us with lesser knowledge.

The last 10% may be folks like GaryNASA, SpaceX_MS and more who lurk and work actively in the current programs and give us jewels of thought or information that prove the collective NSF right or wrong.

This piece is certainly for the 75%, sure. But the piece does what only the Chris's and other NSF writers can do, to a point, on their news pieces, and that's glean what's legitimate news and fact from forum data into a digestible, accurate summation of a Big Picture. It's advantage comes from being less than space-limited as this was a monster of an article to compile, fact check and release. And I know it's still not quite perfect and can never be. But it really paints what Musk is doing well and is worth spreading about, if not here.
"Why is the logo on the side of a rocket so important?"
"So you can find the pieces." -Jim, the Steely Eyed

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14152
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14030
  • Likes Given: 1391
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #10 on: 08/17/2015 03:35 pm »
Quite long and comprehensive. It has several bits that seem to give direct confirmation from Musk on some occasionally-debated points, like solar vs nuclear power on Mars.

 "Nuclear is a possibility, but Musk thinks it値l be mostly solar. Early on, panels will need to be brought from Earth, and Musk has the idea to make them flexible and inflatable so they can be rolled up (like one of those upsetting party blowers)."

This has come up a silly number of times in the MCT thread.


It's a long and fluffy piece, very useful for the general public, not so much for the average reader here.

As for solar/nuclear power and how - if I had one question I can have Musk answer, that would be it.  What is the power architecture he has in mind. 

--

Oh - and why was this post being delayed and put on hold till today?

What's the "average reader" here?

I'm calling you out on this not to pick on you, of course, but to emphasize what this piece is trying to point out.

Most NSFers are "higher than average" in space technology awareness. There's the space-enthusiast types like me that can tell you the names and faces of the first three astronaut groups, that cringe at technical and historical goofs in space docudramas or science fiction, and might even be able to highlight every manned American spaceflight from Mercury to Apollo (or many highlights of STS, depending on your age). I'd guess 75% of us are this, just on a bell curve of probability.

Then there are the space-industry folks that's worked directly or indirectly with the stuff, who calls out we enthusiasts when we get the basics wrong. We know who these people are and love that they're here. That's maybe another 10-15%, and you might be one of them, doing what you should do for us with lesser knowledge.

The last 10% may be folks like GaryNASA, SpaceX_MS and more who lurk and work actively in the current programs and give us jewels of thought or information that prove the collective NSF right or wrong.

This piece is certainly for the 75%, sure. But the piece does what only the Chris's and other NSF writers can do, to a point, on their news pieces, and that's glean what's legitimate news and fact from forum data into a digestible, accurate summation of a Big Picture. It's advantage comes from being less than space-limited as this was a monster of an article to compile, fact check and release. And I know it's still not quite perfect and can never be. But it really paints what Musk is doing well and is worth spreading about, if not here.

Yes, that came out not quite like I intended.

What I meant is that if you read this forum, you'd be aware of most of what's in the article, whereas a "general reader" of the post would fine a lot more new things in it.

That doesn't mean it's not enjoyable or useful for our crowd to read... Sometimes a digest of everything-so-far, plus someone else's opinion, can help you make more sense of things.

There was the possibility that there'd be more new information in this blog post, given that it was put on hold for some weeks, presumably waiting on some other event to happen first.  It didn't happen, and hence my "spoiler".
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Kansan52

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1487
  • Hutchinson, KS
  • Liked: 570
  • Likes Given: 539
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #11 on: 08/17/2015 04:08 pm »
A while back, saw a documentary that touched upon working conditions at Space X. Everyone (the ones on camera) agreed conditions are demanding but would not want to be anywhere else.

From reading elsewhere, it seems typical of many successful places. Then there are successful places that workers don't seem to feel that working there is demanding.

I was always told, vote with my feet.

Offline Oli

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2467
  • Liked: 605
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #12 on: 08/17/2015 04:38 pm »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14152
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14030
  • Likes Given: 1391
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #13 on: 08/17/2015 04:50 pm »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.

Oli - the argument has never been that.

It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.

This only became true once society became a single entity.  A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.

ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline neoforce

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 426
  • Liked: 371
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #14 on: 08/17/2015 05:06 pm »
An excellent story, very well written. It confirms that the MCT will be a two stage rocket, and that there will be 2 kinds of second stages, the spacecraft that goes to Mars and the tanker.

Quote
the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces葉he giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft. The first stage will launch a spacecraft into orbit, then come back down (landing propulsively), refuel, undergo a bit of maintenance, and head back up with another spacecraft. This will go on for a while in the weeks leading up to the point where Earth and Mars are next to each other in orbit. Then SpaceX will send up a tanker of some kind to refuel the orbiting spacecraft (which also functions as the second stage rocket, so it値l have spent a lot of its fuel getting itself into orbit).

Actually, I don't think it confirms that.  It seems to me the author is speculating the same way we do here. You left out the key first sentence of the paragraph:

Quote
No one痴 exactly sure how the transportation will work, but it値l likely be something like this:  the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces葉he giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft.

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14152
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14030
  • Likes Given: 1391
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #15 on: 08/17/2015 05:19 pm »
An excellent story, very well written. It confirms that the MCT will be a two stage rocket, and that there will be 2 kinds of second stages, the spacecraft that goes to Mars and the tanker.

Quote
the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces葉he giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft. The first stage will launch a spacecraft into orbit, then come back down (landing propulsively), refuel, undergo a bit of maintenance, and head back up with another spacecraft. This will go on for a while in the weeks leading up to the point where Earth and Mars are next to each other in orbit. Then SpaceX will send up a tanker of some kind to refuel the orbiting spacecraft (which also functions as the second stage rocket, so it値l have spent a lot of its fuel getting itself into orbit).

Actually, I don't think it confirms that.  It seems to me the author is speculating the same way we do here. You left out the key first sentence of the paragraph:

Quote
No one痴 exactly sure how the transportation will work, but it値l likely be something like this:  the Mars Colonial Transporter will consist of two pieces葉he giant, powerful first stage, and the second stage, which will also be the spacecraft.

I got a similar impression, plus not everything is rigorously accurate.  Nothing major, just little things that hint that you shouldn't take other small details as gospel.
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline neoforce

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 426
  • Liked: 371
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #16 on: 08/17/2015 05:39 pm »
I finished the entire article "How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars" at waitbutwhy.com, and I think it was a great article.  However, I learned almost nothing new.

Clearly this article is not targeted to the "average" reader of NSF.  The average reader here, especially the SpaceX amazing people (myself included) already know all of this stuff.  The article is targeted to a generic audience who isn't aware of what is going on.

The article succeeds as a very in-depth, very accurate (of course not perfect) overview of SpaceX and Musk's philosophy of making mankind a multi planet civilization.  Clearly, he is uber optimistic, and he only provides one paragraph about how things could go wrong.   But if a friend wanted a very in-depth read explaining what most people here already understand, I would recommend this article.

Offline Oli

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2467
  • Liked: 605
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #17 on: 08/17/2015 05:44 pm »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.

Oli - the argument has never been that.

It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.

This only became true once society became a single entity.  A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.

The idea that advanced societies would collapse as a result of such an event is nonsense propagated by popular culture because it makes for better entertainment.

Even if there's the danger of collapse, its an argument for better civil defense and not for putting "helpers" millions of miles away on some planet where they can hardly survive on their own.

Online meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14152
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14030
  • Likes Given: 1391
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #18 on: 08/17/2015 06:13 pm »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.

Oli - the argument has never been that.

It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.

This only became true once society became a single entity.  A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.

The idea that advanced societies would collapse as a result of such an event is nonsense propagated by popular culture because it makes for better entertainment.

Even if there's the danger of collapse, its an argument for better civil defense and not for putting "helpers" millions of miles away on some planet where they can hardly survive on their own.

That's one hell of a claim...   Complex societies can't collapse?!  (phew.  I was worried there for a second)

But, rather than argue it, you need to understand that this is a hypothesis.  The question was "how to help society in the case of a collapse", and so arguing that a collapse is impossible is just out-of-scope.

The concept of a back-up is not exactly new either, and it's pretty robust.  "Our computer system cannot fail because of redundancies".  Sure - and yet we keep a backup.

And so to say "some planet millions of miles away" misses the point.  It's exactly where you want it.  You don't put the backup in the same building.

... and "can barely survive on their own" - well that's the challenge, isn't it?  Build a self sustaining colony on Mars.   Clearly a few people on an expedition are not going to cut it as a backup.

So if your posts boils down to "I don't believe we can build a self-sustaining colony on Mars", then that's a completely different argument and you should come out and say so.

But to say that a self sustaining colony on Mars is not a solution to the risk of society collapse on Earth, or that such a collapse is impossible - I don't think you can back those up.
« Last Edit: 08/17/2015 06:35 pm by meekGee »
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline JamesH

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 525
  • United Kingdom
  • Liked: 284
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
« Reply #19 on: 08/17/2015 08:05 pm »
SpaceX post is up.

http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/08/how-and-why-spacex-will-colonize-mars.html

None of those "extinction events" will make Earth less habitable than Mars.

If you want to prevent "mass extinction" from happening, the money is better spent on asteroid detection/deflection, prediction/control of volcanic eruptions and disease prevention/control.

Just stating the obvious, hopefully not spoiling the party.

Oli - the argument has never been that.

It's that a collapsing society loses much more than the actual damage caused by whatever it was that started the collapse (war, crop failure, asteroid hit...) - it needs a second healthy society nearby to help it back on its feet.

This only became true once society became a single entity.  A world full only of animals, though biologically similar to humans, will bounce back (and has bounced back) from many events that would cause us to go back to the dark ages.

The idea that advanced societies would collapse as a result of such an event is nonsense propagated by popular culture because it makes for better entertainment.

Even if there's the danger of collapse, its an argument for better civil defense and not for putting "helpers" millions of miles away on some planet where they can hardly survive on their own.

A sufficiently advanced society probably wouldn't collapse.

However, our society simply is not advanced enough to keep itself out of the dark ages should an extinction level event occur.

We don't have rockets to intercept asteroids, we have insufficient food reserves to survive a 50% drop in food production (after all, we have trouble feeding the whole world now!), but most of all, who do you think will survive? The huge majority of the technologically advanced parts of the earth would be completely hopeless fending for themselves., and yet they are the ones who have the MONEY to survive. It would also need a global programme to protect the planet, and we cannot even sort out getting emissions low enough to stock climate change.

I'm not optimistic.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1