Author Topic: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis  (Read 397623 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 47936
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81287
  • Likes Given: 36800
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #540 on: 05/17/2018 03:49 pm »
Quote
ASAP’s Brent Jett: sense of panel that further commercial crew schedule slips are likely. If both companies able to at least do uncrewed test flights this year, that would be a good outcome.

https://twitter.com/jeff_foust/status/997130292069617665

Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10183
  • US
  • Liked: 13845
  • Likes Given: 5915
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #541 on: 06/18/2018 05:17 pm »
This is a good article, worth reading.

[Aviation Week, June 14] NASA’s Grand Commercial Space Taxi Experiment Heads Into Home Stretch

Quote
Officially, the milestone [Boeing uncrewed Orbital Test Flight] remains on NASA’s calendar for August, but the flight more likely is six months away.
...
“I think we’re going to get the unmanned demo flights probably by the end of the year, maybe a little after that . . . and then the crew demo missions next year. Those are really going to dictate how the rest of that manifest goes,” says Suni Williams, one of four NASA astronauts serving as test subjects and sounding boards for the Boeing and SpaceX development, test and operations teams.
...
« Last Edit: 06/18/2018 05:19 pm by gongora »

Offline yg1968

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 17256
  • Liked: 7111
  • Likes Given: 3061
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #542 on: 06/19/2018 03:42 am »
These parts of the article are also interesting:

Quote
The unmanned and crewed test flights are intended to pave the way for NASA certification of the systems for ISS crew-rotation missions licensed by the FAA, which oversees commercial U.S. spaceflight. “By doing the FAA licensing for crewed missions, we’ve established the beginning of this government-commercial framework for these providers to eventually have licensed missions on their own, independent of NASA capabilities,” says CCP Manager Kathy Lueders.

Quote
“I think NASA wanted people who had experience with loss of a space shuttle as a part of the initial crew cadre,” says astronaut Bob Behnken, who is assigned to the CCP program along with colleagues Williams, Eric Boe and Doug Hurley. Behnken and Hurley were waiting for Columbia on the KSC runway on Feb. 1, 2003, when the shuttle broke apart [...]

“When we travel to Florida with a team, we look for opportunities to get them into the Columbia room so they can be exposed to what that brings to your psyche,” he [Behnken] adds, referring to a room on the 16th floor of KSC’s Vehicle Assembly Building where debris from the accident has been preserved.
« Last Edit: 06/19/2018 04:11 am by yg1968 »

Offline getitdoneinspace

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 140
  • Liked: 305
  • Likes Given: 224
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #543 on: 06/24/2018 10:48 pm »
http://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-astronaut-suni-williams-on-spacex-boeing-spaceships-2018-6

According to this article with Suni Williams, the uncrewed flights will be September for SpaceX and October for Boeing. The crewed flights will be December 31st for Boeing and January 17th for SpaceX.

Rather specific dates for the crewed flights. Looking forward to the Happy New Year!




Offline gongora

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10183
  • US
  • Liked: 13845
  • Likes Given: 5915
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #544 on: 06/24/2018 11:25 pm »
http://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-astronaut-suni-williams-on-spacex-boeing-spaceships-2018-6

According to this article with Suni Williams, the uncrewed flights will be September for SpaceX and October for Boeing. The crewed flights will be December 31st for Boeing and January 17th for SpaceX.

Rather specific dates for the crewed flights. Looking forward to the Happy New Year!

Those dates are extremely unlikely to happen.  The article mentions the crewed demo dates possibly slipping to mid-2019, and that is probably what is going to happen.
« Last Edit: 06/24/2018 11:25 pm by gongora »

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12092
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18181
  • Likes Given: 12139
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #545 on: 06/25/2018 06:52 am »
http://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-astronaut-suni-williams-on-spacex-boeing-spaceships-2018-6

According to this article with Suni Williams, the uncrewed flights will be September for SpaceX and October for Boeing. The crewed flights will be December 31st for Boeing and January 17th for SpaceX.

Rather specific dates for the crewed flights. Looking forward to the Happy New Year!

Those dates are extremely unlikely to happen.  The article mentions the crewed demo dates possibly slipping to mid-2019, and that is probably what is going to happen.

Yes, and if my sources are correct (and I trust them to be so) at least one of the uncrewed missions won't be happening in 2018 either (the Boeing one).
« Last Edit: 06/25/2018 09:38 am by woods170 »

Offline Steven Pietrobon

  • Member
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39048
  • Adelaide, Australia
    • Steven Pietrobon's Space Archive
  • Liked: 32358
  • Likes Given: 8025
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #546 on: 06/27/2018 07:25 am »
The author of that article actually contacted me asking me where I got the commercial crew dates from in my US Commercial manifest at

http://www.sworld.com.au/steven/space/uscom-man.txt

I gave a link to my usual sources and NSF, and specifically mentioned this thread. :-)
Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design #1:  Engineering is done with numbers.  Analysis without numbers is only an opinion.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 47936
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81287
  • Likes Given: 36800
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #547 on: 06/29/2018 08:10 am »
Quote
NASA planning revisions to commercial crew test flight schedule
by Jeff Foust — June 28, 2018

RENTON, Wash. — With official dates for commercial crew test flights looming, NASA officials have indicated a revised schedule, taking into account the status of vehicle development as well as International Space Station activities, will soon be released.

At a June 28 briefing at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center regarding the scheduled June 29 launch of a SpaceX Dragon cargo spacecraft, Kirk Shireman, NASA ISS program manager, said the agency was “close” to setting new date for uncrewed and crewed test flights by Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner and SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft.

http://spacenews.com/nasa-planning-revisions-to-commercial-crew-test-flight-schedule/

Offline deruch

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2422
  • California
  • Liked: 2006
  • Likes Given: 5634
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #548 on: 06/29/2018 10:52 pm »
The author of that article actually contacted me asking me where I got the commercial crew dates from in my US Commercial manifest at

http://www.sworld.com.au/steven/space/uscom-man.txt

I gave a link to my usual sources and NSF, and specifically mentioned this thread. :-)

Citeology in effect.
Shouldn't reality posts be in "Advanced concepts"?  --Nomadd

Offline Khadgars

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1749
  • Orange County, California
  • Liked: 1131
  • Likes Given: 3155
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #549 on: 07/09/2018 05:17 pm »
I have the impression that the bigger amount of money available to Boeing ($ 4.2B versus $ 2.6B for SpaceX) is one of the reasons why Boeing slips less than SpaceX.

I wonder how much BFR plays in as well. With Dragon 2, SpaceX's internal goals and NASA's goals are no longer in alignment. So, the extra oomph to get things done a bit quicker may not be there. Not to mention that some of SpaceX's top talent has probably moved over to BFR already if they are as far along was they seem to indicate.

If that is the case, I will be highly disappointed in SpaceX.  Why would you take your best talent off human spaceflight that you already have scheduled?  I've always felt SpaceX viewed human spaceflight as easier than it really is, but I'd be shocked they don't have their aces working in it.
Evil triumphs when good men do nothing - Thomas Jefferson

Offline meberbs

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3096
  • Liked: 3379
  • Likes Given: 777
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #550 on: 07/09/2018 05:28 pm »
I have the impression that the bigger amount of money available to Boeing ($ 4.2B versus $ 2.6B for SpaceX) is one of the reasons why Boeing slips less than SpaceX.

I wonder how much BFR plays in as well. With Dragon 2, SpaceX's internal goals and NASA's goals are no longer in alignment. So, the extra oomph to get things done a bit quicker may not be there. Not to mention that some of SpaceX's top talent has probably moved over to BFR already if they are as far along was they seem to indicate.

If that is the case, I will be highly disappointed in SpaceX.  Why would you take your best talent off human spaceflight that you already have scheduled?  I've always felt SpaceX viewed human spaceflight as easier than it really is, but I'd be shocked they don't have their aces working in it.
The programs are in different phases, the top design talent and the top I&T talent are probably different people. Plenty of people who worked Dragon probably have little to continue to contribute to that program.

Offline chipguy

  • Member
  • Posts: 92
  • Ottawa Canada
  • Liked: 97
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #551 on: 07/09/2018 05:34 pm »
I've always felt SpaceX viewed human spaceflight as easier than it really is, but I'd be shocked they don't have their aces working in it.

Why would their aces be working on Dragon 2? It is pretty clear that NASA
doesn't want anything radically new or innovative or deviates from past
practices. Progress going forward seems limited by acceptance procedures,
reviews, and paperwork on NASA's side. That is FAR from a program where
aces would want to work or be needed when BFS is progressing in parallel.
« Last Edit: 07/09/2018 05:34 pm by chipguy »

Offline Tomness

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 660
  • Into the abyss will I run
  • Liked: 289
  • Likes Given: 737
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #552 on: 07/09/2018 05:40 pm »

...

If that is the case, I will be highly disappointed in SpaceX.  Why would you take your best talent off human spaceflight that you already have scheduled?  I've always felt SpaceX viewed human spaceflight as easier than it really is, but I'd be shocked they don't have their aces working in it.
The programs are in different phases, the top design talent and the top I&T talent are probably different people. Plenty of people who worked Dragon probably have little to continue to contribute to that program.

IMO, that's what I got out of whats happening now, its in Quality Control, Testing,  & Cerfication Phase. R & D & Design phases are over

Offline Andy Bandy

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 171
  • California
  • Liked: 110
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #553 on: 07/10/2018 11:17 pm »
Cargo and Crew Dragon are not all that alike. There are identical elements, but more differences with a lot of changes. Musk's focus on vertical integration means they have to develop a lot of new elements in house, which makes everything more complicated and time consuming and problem plagued.

Boeing's approach is not to reinvent the wheel. It has uses a lot of subcontractors and a lot of proven tech. The challenge is integrating all these disparate elements.

Even though the first Crew Dragon has come out of vacuum testing, there's a chance Boeing will fly first.

Offline envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8142
  • Liked: 6799
  • Likes Given: 2963
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #554 on: 07/11/2018 01:34 am »
On the contrary, vertical integration means that any issues found in testing can be resolved faster because there are fewer communication delays back and forth with the subs.

Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #555 on: 07/11/2018 08:32 am »
Cargo and Crew Dragon are not all that alike. There are identical elements, but more differences with a lot of changes. Musk's focus on vertical integration means they have to develop a lot of new elements in house, which makes everything more complicated and time consuming and problem plagued.

Boeing's approach is not to reinvent the wheel. It has uses a lot of subcontractors and a lot of proven tech. The challenge is integrating all these disparate elements.

Even though the first Crew Dragon has come out of vacuum testing, there's a chance Boeing will fly first.

What? This is easily disproved by the fast pace of almost every project SpaceX has undertaken compared to the traditional approach.
Failure is not only an option, it's the only way to learn.
"Tradition is not the worship of ashes, but the custody of fire" - Gustav Mahler

Offline Ike17055

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 236
  • Liked: 198
  • Likes Given: 190
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #556 on: 07/11/2018 03:43 pm »
nobody knows where these contractors stand in regard to completion. SpaceX has encountered plenty of delays so the previous post is incorrect. the ideas regarding vertical integration being naturally fsater is a theory that may or may not be true. The idea that using proven components should be a faster development approach is likewise a theory that may or may not be true. both hypotheses are going to be put to the test, so we will know which hypothesis is more valid  - in this case - within a few months, most likely.

Offline Ike17055

  • Full Member
  • **
  • Posts: 236
  • Liked: 198
  • Likes Given: 190
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #557 on: 07/11/2018 03:47 pm »
lots of variables in each of these theories that can spell the difference.

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

  • Global Moderator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 47936
  • UK
    • Plan 28
  • Liked: 81287
  • Likes Given: 36800
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #558 on: 07/11/2018 03:54 pm »
Quote
New GAO report says neither commercial crew system likely to be certified before late 2019/early 2020. https://www.gao.gov/assets/700/693035.pdf … Says NASA has not "fully shared" w/Congress risks of future delays and doesn't have contingency plan in place to ensure "uninterrupted presence" on ISS

https://twitter.com/SpcPlcyOnline/status/1017073661025636353

Edit to add: GOA page for the report https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-18-476
« Last Edit: 07/11/2018 03:56 pm by FutureSpaceTourist »

Offline envy887

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8142
  • Liked: 6799
  • Likes Given: 2963
Re: Commercial Crew Schedule Analysis
« Reply #559 on: 07/11/2018 04:04 pm »
nobody knows where these contractors stand in regard to completion.

We do now.

 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1