Author Topic: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)  (Read 800552 times)

Offline Garrett

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #40 on: 02/15/2012 12:03 pm »
... there is no slot for a launch

Do you mean there is no slot left at the range for a launch (in 2013) or do you simply mean that one hasn't been booked yet?
« Last Edit: 02/15/2012 12:03 pm by Garrett »
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Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #41 on: 02/15/2012 12:10 pm »
... there is no slot for a launch

Do you mean there is no slot left at the range for a launch (in 2013) or do you simply mean that one hasn't been booked yet?

They have other obligations to meet first

Offline Garrett

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #42 on: 02/15/2012 12:16 pm »
... there is no slot for a launch

Do you mean there is no slot left at the range for a launch (in 2013) or do you simply mean that one hasn't been booked yet?

They have other obligations to meet first
eh, ok. I think. You mean SpaceX has other obligations (COTS 2/3, Resupply, etc) ?
That doesn't really clarify your statement that there is no slot for a launch.
(what I wouldn't give for a Bable fish to understand Jim's comments)
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #43 on: 02/15/2012 12:58 pm »
Does this help?

http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Notice all 2012 Cape launches have Dragons attached, and they have to be cleared out before the two 2013 GTO missions with fairings can fly. And don't forget the CRS-3 and 4 flights in 2013. 2013 will be a fun year... They have four Cape launches on the manifest, plus what ever they do not fly in 2012.

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« Last Edit: 02/15/2012 12:59 pm by kevin-rf »
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Offline Garrett

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #44 on: 02/15/2012 04:50 pm »
Does this help?

http://www.spacex.com/launch_manifest.php

Notice all 2012 Cape launches have Dragons attached, and they have to be cleared out before the two 2013 GTO missions with fairings can fly. And don't forget the CRS-3 and 4 flights in 2013. 2013 will be a fun year... They have four Cape launches on the manifest, plus what ever they do not fly in 2012.

Jimology is a fun drinking game, for every word you take a drink. You never fear getting drunk because there are not enough words ;)
Thanks for that.
Ok, so for you Jim is referring to a SpaceX issue and not a range issue. So SpaceX will only launch an Astrobotic mission if they can find time in their hectic schedule, which is far from being a given I imagine.
- "Nothing shocks me. I'm a scientist." - Indiana Jones

Offline mr. mark

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #45 on: 02/15/2012 04:59 pm »
There seems to be a lot of confusion about the path SpaceX is taking at the moment. They have a lot of oars in the water right now, Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy, cargo Dragon, crewed Dragon, launch escape and Vandenburg launch complex construction. This seems to be the breakthrough year for some of these projects. It's going to get interesting from here on out.

Offline savuporo

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #46 on: 02/15/2012 05:43 pm »
So SpaceX will only launch an Astrobotic mission if they can find time in their hectic schedule,
Say what you want, but i think its quite hilarious that their "hectic" schedule ( no launches last year, maybe one this year ) would prevent them from launching an actual paying customer, the type of private enterprise venture they were supposed to enable ?
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Offline kevin-rf

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #47 on: 02/15/2012 06:00 pm »

But with no launches last year means they already have a backlog for this and next year. They need to really start clearing the backlog and proving they can launch regularly before they can add new launches in the near term.
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Offline Garrett

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #48 on: 02/15/2012 06:35 pm »
Say what you want, but i think its quite hilarious that their "hectic" schedule ( no launches last year, maybe one this year ) would prevent them from launching an actual paying customer, the type of private enterprise venture they were supposed to enable ?
Unless you presume the word "hectic" to be relative. If they launch one or two this year, and are aiming for five or six next year, then for them it'll be hectic.

Also, as Kevin-rf mentioned, they may also have logistics issues with Falcons and Dragons waiting for specific launches. Their barn may be full so to speak. Maybe they have some wiggle room to swap a Falcon from one mission to another, but I have no idea if that's even possible.
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Offline savuporo

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #49 on: 02/15/2012 06:41 pm »
I wish we had someone on this forum that worked on Baikonur ( or Plesetsk ) cosmodrome in late 70ies. Just do explain what a "hectic" launch schedule really means.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2012 06:44 pm by savuporo »
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Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #50 on: 02/15/2012 07:41 pm »
Here is a pert diagram that I updated that I did for another thread (I added the McGregor FH test stand to it). Most of the tasks in the diagram occur during or before 2013. Some of the tasks may never occur which are some of those that would occur after 2013. The year listed in the task event is the end date if it has two years it is a spread of when it may occur.

The reason the years after 2013 seem to be not as busy is that most SpaceX tasks that they start last only a year to two years. Examples: FH started 2011 finish 2013, M1D started 2009/2010 finished 2011. So 2012 should hold some announcements of more tasks that would last through 2014 possibly as long as 2015 to go along with the long term goals/tasks of Crewed Dragon and rapid reusability.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2012 07:43 pm by oldAtlas_Eguy »

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #51 on: 02/15/2012 08:20 pm »
Here is a pert diagram that I updated that I did for another thread (I added the McGregor FH test stand to it). Most of the tasks in the diagram occur during or before 2013. Some of the tasks may never occur which are some of those that would occur after 2013. The year listed in the task event is the end date if it has two years it is a spread of when it may occur.
{snip}

Many of the commercial satellite launches can use the existing F9 pad and existing Merlin but do need a fairing.  Some may only use the Dragon as a poll or possible as a kick stage.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #52 on: 02/15/2012 08:36 pm »
Here is a pert diagram that I updated that I did for another thread (I added the McGregor FH test stand to it). Most of the tasks in the diagram occur during or before 2013. Some of the tasks may never occur which are some of those that would occur after 2013. The year listed in the task event is the end date if it has two years it is a spread of when it may occur.

Nice

Like A_M_Swallow suggested including the fairing, I suggest including the Super Dracos. This task would probably be for 2011-2012 and flow into a Launch Abort test and the Crew Dragon.  I think the Enhanced Falcon 9 also flows into the ISS CRS task, but does not preceed it starting.
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #53 on: 02/15/2012 09:27 pm »
I added the faring and GTO/GEO payload capability into the diagram, they show with yellow text. I also added additional color coding:

Yellow text – new adds and will occur

White text – already occurred

Green text – will occur

Black text – existing out year projects but may experience delays or cancelations

Red text – possibly occur but not yet stated by SpaceX whether they will or not

Offline baldusi

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #54 on: 02/15/2012 09:41 pm »
I think you uploaded the old version.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #55 on: 02/15/2012 09:57 pm »
You are correct here is the correct one.

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #56 on: 02/15/2012 10:28 pm »
You are correct here is the correct one.

Harumpf!  Where's my Super Dracos and Launch Abort Test?
And red text on blue background?  Shame on you, oldAtlas_Eguy!  (I actually have a tee shirt like that.  Gives me a headache.)
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline spacejulien

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #57 on: 02/15/2012 10:36 pm »
To get 4.5 tonnes to GTO, basically a fully upgraded F9 would be needed, 480 tonnes GLOW (vs. 310-ish currently) and some 16 tonne payload to LEO. The current F9 with just upgraded engines won't cut it.
That sounds familiar, from the analysis I've seen F9 with Merlin D would need a GLOW of 450 mT to achieve 4.5 mT P/L to GTO.

And, btw,  I fully support this:
If I could get people on space fora to do one thing, it's to not believe predicted performance numbers or target launch dates for a vehicle* that hasn't flown at least 3 times.
* And by "a vehicle" I mean any moderate change: different front end, more or fewer solids, different engine, different pad.
Posts I contribute here reflect my personal view only; they do not necessarily reflect any official position or opinion of my employer.

Online oldAtlas_Eguy

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #58 on: 02/15/2012 11:15 pm »
To get 4.5 tonnes to GTO, basically a fully upgraded F9 would be needed, 480 tonnes GLOW (vs. 310-ish currently) and some 16 tonne payload to LEO. The current F9 with just upgraded engines won't cut it.
That sounds familiar, from the analysis I've seen F9 with Merlin D would need a GLOW of 450 mT to achieve 4.5 mT P/L to GTO.

And, btw,  I fully support this:
If I could get people on space fora to do one thing, it's to not believe predicted performance numbers or target launch dates for a vehicle* that hasn't flown at least 3 times.
* And by "a vehicle" I mean any moderate change: different front end, more or fewer solids, different engine, different pad.

You are probably correct in that just replacing the current Merlins with the M1D versions would not get you to or over 4.5mt GTO but it would be definitly better than the current <3.8mt capability. In order to fly the full F9 Block II the CCAFS pad has to be upgraded to handle the stretched F9 and that will probably not be finished until 2013-2014 so until then the not a Block I and not a Block II version but somewhere in between will have to be used.

The LAS is actually a subsystem on the Crewd Dragon but the Super Dracos could have other uses other than for the LAS, although SpaceX has yet to propose their use elswere other than as they are in a throttled down usage for a powered landing.

I will look to see what info about the CCP milestones and expected dates for the significant milestones to create a seperate dependency diagram just for Dragon and its derivitives.

Offline spacejulien

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Re: SpaceX: General Falcon and Dragon discussion (Thread 5)
« Reply #59 on: 02/15/2012 11:30 pm »
To get 4.5 tonnes to GTO, basically a fully upgraded F9 would be needed, 480 tonnes GLOW (vs. 310-ish currently) and some 16 tonne payload to LEO. The current F9 with just upgraded engines won't cut it.
That sounds familiar, from the analysis I've seen F9 with Merlin D would need a GLOW of 450 mT to achieve 4.5 mT P/L to GTO.

You are probably correct in that just replacing the current Merlins with the M1D versions would not get you to or over 4.5mt GTO but it would be definitly better than the current <3.8mt capability. In order to fly the full F9 Block II the CCAFS pad has to be upgraded to handle the stretched F9 and that will probably not be finished until 2013-2014 so until then the not a Block I and not a Block II version but somewhere in between will have to be used.

To GTO the current performance seems to be significantly less than 3.8 mt. Only the Merlin D upgrade buys near to nothing, a stretch is already needed to reach even ~4 mt.
« Last Edit: 02/15/2012 11:30 pm by spacejulien »
Posts I contribute here reflect my personal view only; they do not necessarily reflect any official position or opinion of my employer.

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