Author Topic: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight  (Read 30495 times)

Online Silmfeanor

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #40 on: 09/07/2011 03:10 pm »

Jim cannot leave Earth, if he did, the NSF forums would become overrun by naive dreamers and overoptimistic people with can-do attitudes.

And what have you done lately that involves actual hardware getting into space?

I just point out that modifying launch vehicles is not the same as car mods/conversions.

I saw that qoute as a positive one; the appeal of this forum is that it is measured by a very healthy dose of reality, and you are a large part of it, thanks!  ;D

Otherwise the forum would be overrun by people refueling skylon with falcon X heavy in 2013, while building a moon base on the first launch of orion. which also orbits mars now.

on topic: nope, won't happen; too much chance for fail. just throw some mass, if you can find a costumer, nice.

Offline baddux

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #41 on: 09/07/2011 06:58 pm »
I think so too that it was actually a compliment to Jim. I at least am grateful that aerospace professionals here spend their time to comment on amateur's speculation.

Offline grr

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #42 on: 09/07/2011 07:01 pm »
For the first FH launch it is adding risk and complexity for the payload to be anything other than an oversized Sputnik that returns TV pictures.

If SpaceX use a high orbit they will have to add a means of de-orbiting the satellite.

Send it BEO.
And let somebody else build a sat for doing just that.
USAF || Naval Academy?

The fact is that FH's real use is going to be either fuel depots in orbit or sending large loads BEO.


------------------------------------------
btw, another idea is for sending 1 or more of google's lunar prize for a low costs.
But can you do that from the launch site?
« Last Edit: 09/07/2011 07:05 pm by grr »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #43 on: 09/07/2011 09:18 pm »

The fact is that FH's real use is going to be either fuel depots in orbit or sending large loads BEO.

Fantasy, the real use is large DOD Polar payloads, and GTO payloads to heavy for the Falcon 9.

Nothing else is funded in that weight class.
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #44 on: 09/07/2011 09:41 pm »
{snip}

The fact is that FH's real use is going to be either fuel depots in orbit or sending large loads BEO.

If SpaceX wants to start off the fuel depots they could launch a tank containing about 45 mT of propellant, a docking port, the same docking aids used by the ISS and station keeping thrusters.  Sun shields etc. can wait for a later version.

They would have to use a fuel that neither freezes nor boils in LEO.

Offline notsorandom

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #45 on: 09/07/2011 10:19 pm »
SpaceX is a business, and Elon is a very sensible CEO. They are trying to gain cash flow and position themselves in the market. The first demo flight has to test and prove all the systems of the Falcon Heavy that are needed to launch their customer's payloads. No one is going to risk their multimillion dollar satellite on the second Falcon Heavy flight if all the necessary systems are not tested. Flying a Dragon, or doing other stunts like that are contrary to that.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #46 on: 09/07/2011 10:54 pm »
{snip}

The fact is that FH's real use is going to be either fuel depots in orbit or sending large loads BEO.

If SpaceX wants to start off the fuel depots they could launch a tank containing about 45 mT of propellant, a docking port, the same docking aids used by the ISS and station keeping thrusters.  Sun shields etc. can wait for a later version.

They would have to use a fuel that neither freezes nor boils in LEO.

just plain stupid.  It would be useless.  There are no spacecraft that can use it, especially when you put constraints on the type of propellant. 

Offline Jason1701

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #47 on: 09/07/2011 11:11 pm »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?

Offline Diagoras

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #48 on: 09/08/2011 12:34 am »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?

I've been watching for just that. Though, TBH, if God and jim disagreed, I feel God would have some serious explaining to do.

On an unrelated note - what's a nasachrone curve?
"It’s the typical binary world of 'NASA is great' or 'cancel the space program,' with no nuance or understanding of the underlying issues and pathologies of the space industrial complex."

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #49 on: 09/08/2011 12:44 pm »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?

I've been watching for just that. Though, TBH, if God and jim disagreed, I feel God would have some serious explaining to do.
{snip}

On the demo flight it would be nice for the fuel to be used but is not necessary.  SpaceX just needs to prove that they can lift the mass.

For a demo of the launch vehicle the dummy payload needs the absolute minimum that can go wrong.  The limits on the propellant come from our current technology, zero boil-off technology has not reached TRL 9.  That rules out hydrogen.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #50 on: 09/08/2011 12:49 pm »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?

I've been watching for just that. Though, TBH, if God and jim disagreed, I feel God would have some serious explaining to do.
{snip}

On the demo flight it would be nice for the fuel to be used but is not necessary.  SpaceX just needs to prove that they can lift the mass.

For a demo of the launch vehicle the dummy payload needs the absolute minimum that can go wrong.  The limits on the propellant come from our current technology, zero boil-off technology has not reached TRL 9.  That rules out hydrogen.

It rules out anything but a dummy mass.  Jeesh

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #51 on: 09/08/2011 01:27 pm »
The real question will should be:
What will the dummy mass weight?
What will the final orbit be?

Will they go for a max capacity mass, or a fraction of the max mass? LEO? HEO? Transfer Orbit?

An argument can be made for going for max mass. If the vehicle under performs, the dummy sat will not make the desired orbit ( and depending on the orbit, may not even make orbit). From a PR stand point it is safer to go with a smaller mass.

My WAG, since this is Vandenberg, a large, but not max mass to a short lived LEO Polar orbit.
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Offline bob the martian

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #52 on: 09/08/2011 05:53 pm »
I can't see the first payload being anything but a mass simulator.  Even without crossfeed, this launch is going to be complicated enough as it is - 27 engines, new pad infrastructure - so trying to do anything else would be unreasonably risky. 

Boring?  Maybe, but I'd rather SpaceX be boring and successful, rather than exciting and bankrupt. 

Besides, if history is a guide, we know there will be at least one delay before the thing flies; it wouldn't make sense to tie yourself to a specific launch window if you can't guarantee that the thing will even work. 

Offline RocketEconomist327

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #53 on: 09/08/2011 06:20 pm »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?
no
You can talk about all the great things you can do, or want to do, in space; but unless the rocket scientists get a sound understanding of economics (and quickly), the US space program will never achieve the greatness it should.

Putting my money where my mouth is.

Offline notsorandom

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #54 on: 09/08/2011 07:48 pm »
The real question will should be:
What will the dummy mass weight?
What will the final orbit be?

Will they go for a max capacity mass, or a fraction of the max mass? LEO? HEO? Transfer Orbit?

An argument can be made for going for max mass. If the vehicle under performs, the dummy sat will not make the desired orbit ( and depending on the orbit, may not even make orbit). From a PR stand point it is safer to go with a smaller mass.

My WAG, since this is Vandenberg, a large, but not max mass to a short lived LEO Polar orbit.
Bingo, those are the real questions. I wonder if there is a mission plan that can demonstrate more then one mission. In other words show the necessary capabilities for a few different types of orbits. Something like drop the mass simulator off in one orbit then reignite the upper stage a few more times after some loiter periods. Something sort of similar what they did during the COTS 1 mission after dropping the Dragon off.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #55 on: 09/08/2011 08:15 pm »
Something like drop the mass simulator off in one orbit then reignite the upper stage a few more times after some loiter periods.

Was his name'O...
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #56 on: 09/09/2011 08:23 pm »

On the demo flight it would be nice for the fuel to be used but is not necessary.  SpaceX just needs to prove that they can lift the mass.

For a demo of the launch vehicle the dummy payload needs the absolute minimum that can go wrong.  The limits on the propellant come from our current technology, zero boil-off technology has not reached TRL 9.  That rules out hydrogen.

It rules out anything but a dummy mass.  Jeesh

A dummy mass would probably get the rocket men fired for gross professional incompetence.  Without the ability to manoeuvre the payload is immediate space debris.  Parts of 53 ton space objects re-entering LEO can impact the Earth at unplanned locations.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #57 on: 09/09/2011 09:06 pm »

A dummy mass would probably get the rocket men fired for gross professional incompetence.  Without the ability to manoeuvre the payload is immediate space debris.  Parts of 53 ton space objects re-entering LEO can impact the Earth at unplanned locations.

You could not be more wrong.  Your statement is grossly and completely incorrect.  This is just another case that you do not know what you are talking about.

Here are some recent dummy masses. 

http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/hlvolsdp.htm
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/dm-f3.htm

Again, refrain from talking about subjects that you don't know about.
Your statement about incompetence is applicable to others in this case.
« Last Edit: 09/09/2011 09:08 pm by Jim »

Offline simonbp

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #58 on: 09/09/2011 10:52 pm »
Jim, the payload on the first Falcon 9 (Dragon test article) was a bit more complicated/instrumented than the Boeing's dummy masses. It's thus not unreasonable to expect the test payload to be more complicated than giant lumps of inert metal.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #59 on: 09/10/2011 03:25 am »
Jim, the payload on the first Falcon 9 (Dragon test article) was a bit more complicated/instrumented than the Boeing's dummy masses. It's thus not unreasonable to expect the test payload to be more complicated than giant lumps of inert metal.

My point was that they can be and it is not that big of deal and precedence had been set.  Nobody would be fire and there would be no incompetence.

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