Author Topic: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight  (Read 30501 times)

Offline baddux

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Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« on: 09/04/2011 09:08 pm »
If SpaceX is launching the first FH with their own money why not also spend some more for a Dragon for a (obviously unmanned) Mars flyby + return to the Earth.

Reasons:
- Prove that Dragon can return to the Earth from interplanetary space as they have claimed
- Prove that Dragon can operate for two years as they have claimed
- Get some cool video + hi res photos from Mars vicinity
- Do something that has not been done before
- BIG PR

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #1 on: 09/04/2011 09:41 pm »
A successful first flight will be better PR than a failure.

Since a mars flyby mission would be significantly more complicated, it would probably carry a greater risk of failure.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #2 on: 09/04/2011 10:00 pm »
Somehow I don't see a Mars bound flight path from Vandenberg. Maybe a Luna flyby and return.

Offline hop

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #3 on: 09/04/2011 10:00 pm »
Reasons:
- Prove that Dragon can return to the Earth from interplanetary space as they have claimed
- Prove that Dragon can operate for two years as they have claimed
- Get some cool video + hi res photos from Mars vicinity
- Do something that has not been done before
You are making many assumptions which don't seem well grounded in reality:
1) FH  inaugural launch will coincide with a Mars launch window.
2) A Dragon which can actually do those things will be available in time for the first FH flight
3) SpaceX has the resources to operate a long duration deep space mission.
4) SpaceX is willing to invest many millions on a publicity stunt riding on a high risk inaugural launch.

Deep space missions are hard. Based on historical failure rates, they are at least as hard as launching stuff in the first place. It's not something you just throw together on a whim.

Offline majormajor42

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #4 on: 09/04/2011 10:02 pm »
The possible payloads and missions for the first FH flight have been discussed in a few threads before, two I can think of were almost exclusive to this topic but also included some FH possibilities for payloads/missions down the road.

In addition to spacetraveler's point about a successful mission being the most important thing and increasing the complexity might increase teh risk of failure and bad PR, there are a couple other points to be made:

We don't know if the first FH is still without or will be without a primary payload. Someone may still come along willing to pay millions of dollars for a bargain ride into space.

The launch site is VAFB where almost all flights go into polar orbit. since you don't get a boost from the Earth's rotation, it might be enough to prevent a FH from launching a Dragon to Mars or even the Moon.

We aren't sure yet if the initial FH launch will be cross fed. If it is not, that would also reduce the payload potential of the first flight.


I'm still excited by the simple things that this flight could accomplish, besides just showing that the FH is here. They could simply launch into polar orbit and recover a Dragon. Nothing that large has ever been recovered from polar orbit. They could also use one of the Dragon's that has, at that point, been to the ISS already. Since NASA isn't allowing them to recycle Dragon's for ISS purposes, it would be the first time that a Dragon has gone back into space for a second time - something that SpaceX may really want to show off.
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Offline Patchouli

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #5 on: 09/04/2011 10:58 pm »
A lunar flyby would be a lot easier and would be enough of a PR stunt without adding much risk.

Offline BigDustyman

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #6 on: 09/04/2011 11:32 pm »
A lunar flyby would be a lot easier and would be enough of a PR stunt without adding much risk.

I tend to agree with you on this,and would like to see them send version with all needed life support equipment on board to prove they could do it with humans. Seems like that would be excellent sales pitch for BEO

Offline manboy

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #7 on: 09/04/2011 11:52 pm »
A lunar flyby would be a lot easier and would be enough of a PR stunt without adding much risk.

I tend to agree with you on this,and would like to see them send version with all needed life support equipment on board to prove they could do it with humans. Seems like that would be excellent sales pitch for BEO
But would they have a spare Dragon for when the launch date rolls around?
« Last Edit: 09/04/2011 11:53 pm by manboy »
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Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #8 on: 09/05/2011 12:04 am »
But would they have a spare Dragon for when the launch date rolls around?

By 2013 they could have as many as 9 recovered dragons, or as little as 1.  But even a lunar payload would entail more risk than just inserting a mass simulator into LEO or GTO.

The 100% mission success rate has been set up as the gold standard by ULA, I have a feeling SpaceX is going to play it as safe as possible with Falcon Heavy considering it's going to have to compete for contracts with the Swiss Watch of US space Launch, the Atlas 5.

A stunt lunar flyby isn’t going to impress SpaceX’s customers (but it might inflame the SLS protectors considering it could be seen as a direct threat to SLS if it’s still around at that time), but a failure because of the heightened difficulty of the mission will still be counted as a failure to the people with the check books.

If SpaceX wants to keep it’s insurance costs low, and gain the trust to carry truly valuable payloads, they need to maintain as close to a 100% success rate as they can, or they will lose every time to ULA.
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Offline Jason1701

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #9 on: 09/05/2011 01:00 am »
Vandenberg will most likely not have a Dragon processing facility, at least for a while.

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #10 on: 09/05/2011 03:58 am »
ULA hasn't had a 100% success rate. They've had several rockets explode and several that resulted in incorrect final orbits. However I do think that a failure at this point hurts SpaceX a lot more than it does ULA given their longer track record of near universal success.

Offline neilh

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #11 on: 09/05/2011 04:05 am »
Vandenberg will most likely not have a Dragon processing facility, at least for a while.

Yup, that sounds like a pretty big blocker. My personal hope is Elon Musk's old Mars Oasis mission design, but I'm not sure if that'd be doable without hypergolics.

Due to the experimental nature of the flight, I suspect SpaceX probably won't be pre-announcing any "bonus" payloads/missions, same as their prior test flights.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2011 04:06 am by neilh »
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Offline beancounter

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #12 on: 09/05/2011 08:01 am »
ULA hasn't had a 100% success rate. They've had several rockets explode and several that resulted in incorrect final orbits. However I do think that a failure at this point hurts SpaceX a lot more than it does ULA given their longer track record of near universal success.
I don't understand this.  COTS is a milestone-based test program.  That's the nature of the beast.  If a flight goes wrong for some reason, then they determine the cause, fix it, and progress onto the next one.  NASA won't allow CRS to get underway until they are sure SpaceX has a reliable system.  Same goes for Orbital.
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Offline spacetraveler

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #13 on: 09/05/2011 09:20 am »
ULA hasn't had a 100% success rate. They've had several rockets explode and several that resulted in incorrect final orbits. However I do think that a failure at this point hurts SpaceX a lot more than it does ULA given their longer track record of near universal success.
I don't understand this.  COTS is a milestone-based test program.  That's the nature of the beast.  If a flight goes wrong for some reason, then they determine the cause, fix it, and progress onto the next one.  NASA won't allow CRS to get underway until they are sure SpaceX has a reliable system.  Same goes for Orbital.

This thread is about FH, not F9, COTS, or CRS. FH has nothing to do with those. NASA isn't even the intended customer, DOD is. DOD is not going to allow their stuff to fly on something that is not proven successful, which is why a failure of FH early in the lifecycle would hurt SpaceX.

Offline douglas100

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #14 on: 09/05/2011 10:19 am »
ULA hasn't had a 100% success rate. They've had several rockets explode and several that resulted in incorrect final orbits.

Off topic, but I've got to ask the question: which ULA rockets have exploded? Perhaps you could post a link to support this assertion?

Back on topic. I think the idea of launching a Dragon on a Mars flyby on the first FH is a complete non starter. Good reasons have already been given by other posters on this thread.
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Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #15 on: 09/05/2011 12:19 pm »
Come to think of it. We don't really need the Dragon capsule for a Mars or Luna flyby mission.

All it require is a modified Dragon trunk. Put an optical array inside  the trunk. Increase the internal battery capacity. Add same secondary sensors.

Replace the Dragon with a hypergolic engine array and spherical propellant tanks inside a payload fairing.

So the spacecraft stack would be upside down compare to most  spacecrafts.

Wonder if such a demonstrator be put together on a small budget and compact development team in time for the inaugural  FH laubch.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #16 on: 09/05/2011 12:48 pm »
For the first FH launch it is adding risk and complexity for the payload to be anything other than an oversized Sputnik that returns TV pictures.

If SpaceX use a high orbit they will have to add a means of de-orbiting the satellite.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #17 on: 09/05/2011 01:30 pm »
Come to think of it. We don't really need the Dragon capsule for a Mars or Luna flyby mission.

All it require is a modified Dragon trunk. Put an optical array inside  the trunk. Increase the internal battery capacity. Add same secondary sensors.

Replace the Dragon with a hypergolic engine array and spherical propellant tanks inside a payload fairing.

So the spacecraft stack would be upside down compare to most  spacecrafts.

Wonder if such a demonstrator be put together on a small budget and compact development team in time for the inaugural  FH laubch.

It isn't that simple.  The avionics are in the dragon.
hypergolic engine arrays and spherical propellant tanks are just laying around to be used.

The fairing and trunk would interfere with each other since they attach to the second stage at the same interface

Offline baldusi

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #18 on: 09/05/2011 02:51 pm »
I would go for a GTO like insertion of a mass simulator. If they feel very confident, they could do a dogleg or plane change with the second stage, just to show the capabilities to potential clients. If they are really serious, and want to do any kind of extra demonstration, I would put a dual satellite dispenser (but not tell anybody about it),and try to do a dual manifested payload simulation. With that they would have demonstrated almost everything needed for competing with Ariane 5 and Proton (save East Coast launch pad).

Offline jbrooks

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #19 on: 09/05/2011 03:07 pm »
I would go for a GTO like insertion of a mass simulator. If they feel very confident, they could do a dogleg or plane change with the second stage, just to show the capabilities to potential clients. If they are really serious, and want to do any kind of extra demonstration, I would put a dual satellite dispenser (but not tell anybody about it),and try to do a dual manifested payload simulation. With that they would have demonstrated almost everything needed for competing with Ariane 5 and Proton (save East Coast launch pad).
Agree completely. FH's prospective customers - DOD and commercial satellite co.'s - won't be using a dragon. The first mission is a demonstration, so I'd show that the system can get the stated mass to GTO, and that the payload fairing works (I'm remembering Glory here), other capabilities, etc.

Note - F9 has a dozen missions on manifest that would require a fairing and hasn't demonstrated an F9 launch w/ one yet - though I understand that their focus is on COTS and CRS right now...

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #20 on: 09/05/2011 07:03 pm »
Come to think of it. We don't really need the Dragon capsule for a Mars or Luna flyby mission.

All it require is a modified Dragon trunk. Put an optical array inside  the trunk. Increase the internal battery capacity. Add same secondary sensors.

Replace the Dragon with a hypergolic engine array and spherical propellant tanks inside a payload fairing.

So the spacecraft stack would be upside down compare to most  spacecrafts.

Wonder if such a demonstrator be put together on a small budget and compact development team in time for the inaugural  FH laubch.

It isn't that simple.  The avionics are in the dragon.
hypergolic engine arrays and spherical propellant tanks are just laying around to be used.

The fairing and trunk would interfere with each other since they attach to the second stage at the same interface

Was thinking of a short new 3.66m diameter nose cone mounted on the Dragon trunk and jettison like the Dragon capsule.

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #21 on: 09/05/2011 07:52 pm »
Off topic, but I've got to ask the question: which ULA rockets have exploded? Perhaps you could post a link to support this assertion?

Yeah that was a misstatement, I was thinking of the Delta II and Delta III missions which exploded, but those were before ULA formed. The only failures of the ULA era have been improper orbits, not total losses.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2011 07:52 pm by spacetraveler »

Offline hop

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #22 on: 09/05/2011 08:11 pm »
DOD is not going to allow their stuff to fly on something that is not proven successful, which is why a failure of FH early in the lifecycle would hurt SpaceX.
DOD knows that rockets fail, just like everyone else in the business does. The first Delta IV heavy flight failed. Fortunately for the DOD, they knew rockets tend to fail so they required a test flight before trusting their billion dollar payloads to it.

The "ULA 100% success rate gold standard" thing is nonsense. The only reason ULA haven't had a full failure yet is they haven't flown very many missions.

Rockets fail, and new rockets fail more frequently. If the F9 inaugural flight fails, that will certainly be a setback for SpaceX, but it won't be a big surprise, and shouldn't be a fatal blow by itself.

The fact that new rockets tend to fail does suggest no one (SpaceX or a third party) will put a really high value payload on the first F9H flight.

Offline baldusi

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #23 on: 09/05/2011 08:30 pm »
DOD is not going to allow their stuff to fly on something that is not proven successful, which is why a failure of FH early in the lifecycle would hurt SpaceX.
DOD knows that rockets fail, just like everyone else in the business does. The first Delta IV heavy flight failed. Fortunately for the DOD, they knew rockets tend to fail so they required a test flight before trusting their billion dollar payloads to it.

The "ULA 100% success rate gold standard" thing is nonsense. The only reason ULA haven't had a full failure yet is they haven't flown very many missions.

Rockets fail, and new rockets fail more frequently. If the F9 inaugural flight fails, that will certainly be a setback for SpaceX, but it won't be a big surprise, and shouldn't be a fatal blow by itself.

The fact that new rockets tend to fail does suggest no one (SpaceX or a third party) will put a really high value payload on the first F9H flight.

Unless SpaceX has a LAS+EDS prototype. I'm not saying that it should make an abort. But if they officially make it a very lofted launch of a Dragon to test interplanetary speed insertions on the Dragon TPS, it's a win-win.  If all successful, everything is great. If FH fails and LAS works, not such a bad publicity, might actually be spin into the "crew safety" side of the equation. If they learn from failures, an FH failure plus LAS failure would be one heck of a lesson  ;)

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #24 on: 09/05/2011 09:00 pm »
I was thinking of the Delta II and Delta III missions which exploded,
What Delta III missions exploded?

The first mission failed due to poor modeling and ran out of hydraulic fluid, thus tumbling and being terminated by the range. It did not explode, it was terminated.

The second mission failed because of a breach in the RL-10. It did not RUD.

The third mission, other than a slight under performance succeeded.

So unless someone secretly flew the Delta III from some south pacific pad none of us know about...
« Last Edit: 09/05/2011 09:01 pm by kevin-rf »
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Offline ChileVerde

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #25 on: 09/05/2011 09:07 pm »

The launch site is VAFB where almost all flights go into polar orbit. since you don't get a boost from the Earth's rotation, it might be enough to prevent a FH from launching a Dragon to Mars or even the Moon.


True, but, going a bit outside the context of the thread, VAFB has also been used now and then for launches into critical inclination (~63 deg) and retrograde orbits for the military. Most recently, USA 215, which is thought to be the next-generation imaging radar satellite follow-on to LACROSSE, was put into a 123 degree (57 degree retrograde) orbit from there.

Retrograde orbits require some extra amount of oomph, so a bigger rocket might be of interest. Highly speculative, of course, but perhaps something to consider.
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Offline notsorandom

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #26 on: 09/05/2011 09:33 pm »
I'm just reading the tea leaves here, and I am not an expert on the DOD or SpaceX, but I bet that SpaceX will fly a mass simulator payload into an orbit that is common for DOD payloads. That just makes sense to me as the DOD would be the prime customer out of Vandenberg. SpaceX is going to want the DOD's business and the DOD isn't interested in sending a dragon to Mars, the Moon, or anywhere else really. What the DOD is interested in is what can a Falcon Heavy lift, to where, and what the launch is like for the payload.

Also others have a good point when they say that the fairing and payload systems would be different if a Dragon were involved. The fairing has to detach properly and the payload be jettisoned. Falcon Heavy is going to have a bigger fairing and possibly a duel manifest system. It would be good to show that all that works.

The DOD was wise not to risk a satellite on the first Delta IV Heavy launch. The failure of that flight confirmed that. I would bet quite a bit that they will want to see the Falcon Heavy fly at least once before they book a payload. The cost of the demo flight is small in the long run, especially if it adds to customer's confidence in the product.

Offline JohnHunt

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #27 on: 09/06/2011 01:09 am »
Didn't SpaceX do an extra unannounced part of the first launch of the Falcon 9?   I nderstand that thy restarted the upper stage engines and put the upper stage somewhere about a third of the way to GEO.  So, could SpaceX do something similar with it's first FH launch.  They could claim that all of it's goals were met so it was 100% successul BUT they went for bonus achievements.  Even if one of the bonus achievements failed, the stated goals of the mission would still have been met.

Launching satellites for the DoD isn't the purpose of SpaceX but rather a means to the ends which is to make mankind a spacefaring species.  So, it shouldn't be too suprising to see them take an extra unnecessary risk.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #28 on: 09/06/2011 01:17 am »
Didn't SpaceX do an extra unannounced part of the first launch of the Falcon 9?   I nderstand that thy restarted the upper stage engines and put the upper stage somewhere about a third of the way to GEO.

Your confusing the first two launches... The first launch, they attempted a restart and it did not go as planned. The second launch they did a restart after dragon separation boosting the US into a high orbit.
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Offline ChefPat

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #29 on: 09/06/2011 02:41 am »
I remember them saying they were in negotiations with a commercial customer for the FH inaugural flight. I can't find any references to it though.
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Offline go4mars

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #30 on: 09/06/2011 04:17 am »
I would go for a GTO like insertion of a mass simulator. If they feel very confident, they could do a dogleg or plane change with the second stage, just to show the capabilities to potential clients. If they are really serious, and want to do any kind of extra demonstration, I would put a dual satellite dispenser (but not tell anybody about it),and try to do a dual manifested payload simulation. With that they would have demonstrated almost everything needed for competing with Ariane 5 and Proton (save East Coast launch pad).

In the absence of a customer, I like this thought.  But what if they had a dragon inside the PLF as the second payload?  Could the US accomplish the dogleg/plane change, GTO mass simulator, then also send a dragon on an Earth free-return around the moon?  That would score lot's of "cool" points, as well as bringing interesting dragon data.  Combine with '1st propulsive landing' as well?
« Last Edit: 09/06/2011 04:34 am by go4mars »
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Offline docmordrid

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #31 on: 09/06/2011 04:26 am »
It certainly would throw ice water on the "Dragon is LEO only" mantra.   
If they do pull something like this I hope they pack a complete set of radiation and particle detectors for the trip. That data would be very interesting.
« Last Edit: 09/06/2011 04:27 am by docmordrid »
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Offline Lars_J

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #32 on: 09/06/2011 07:13 am »
Yep, sending an reused unmanned Dragon on a lunar free return trajectory would be a cool accomplishment.

Of course, any lunar launch will have limited launch windows from VAFB, (twice monthly from polar orbit), unless they planned on spending a lot of propellant on such a stunt.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #33 on: 09/06/2011 01:10 pm »
Of course, any lunar launch will have limited launch windows from VAFB, (twice monthly from polar orbit), unless they planned on spending a lot of propellant on such a stunt.
Also requires very tight and smoothly executed countdowns for a vehicle that is still in development...
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Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #34 on: 09/06/2011 01:30 pm »

In the absence of a customer, I like this thought.  But what if they had a dragon inside the PLF as the second payload?

You are doing the stacking thing again.  Spacex has never mentioned dual payload. 
Anyways, if it is to simulate a GTO payload, there is no mass left for another.

Offline go4mars

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #35 on: 09/06/2011 03:37 pm »
You are doing the stacking thing again. 

Yes.  But couldn't a dumb mass-simulator just sit on a platform above a dragon within the PLF?

Spacex has never mentioned dual payload. 

I am certain Shotwell was talking about it around the time they first announced F9H (back when they were talking about 30000kg or so to LEO).

Anyways, if it is to simulate a GTO payload, there is no mass left for another.
Even if they do cross-feeding?  Plus dragon has some delta-V as well.  Would this really be impossible?
« Last Edit: 09/06/2011 04:30 pm by go4mars »
Elasmotherium; hurlyburly Doggerlandic Jentilak steeds insouciantly gallop in viridescent taiga, eluding deluginal Burckle's abyssal excavation.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #36 on: 09/06/2011 04:08 pm »
You are doing the stacking thing again. 

Yes.  But couldn't a dumb mass-simulator just sit on a platform above a dragon within the PLF?

Spacex has never mentioned dual payload. 

I am certain Shotwell was talking about it around the time they first announced F9H (back when they were talking about 30000kg or so to LEO).

Anyways, if it is to simulate a GTO payload, there is no mass left for another.
Even if they do cross-feeding?  Plus dragon has some delta-V as well.  Would tihs really be impossible?

The "platform" is not a simple item.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #37 on: 09/06/2011 05:29 pm »
I thought they where launching Jim in a Dragon around the bark side of mars for the first Heavy launch ;)

A simple "platform" would obstruct his view...
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Offline mlorrey

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #38 on: 09/07/2011 08:50 am »
I thought they where launching Jim in a Dragon around the bark side of mars for the first Heavy launch ;)

A simple "platform" would obstruct his view...

Jim cannot leave Earth, if he did, the NSF forums would become overrun by naive dreamers and overoptimistic people with can-do attitudes.
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Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #39 on: 09/07/2011 01:10 pm »

Jim cannot leave Earth, if he did, the NSF forums would become overrun by naive dreamers and overoptimistic people with can-do attitudes.

And what have you done lately that involves actual hardware getting into space?

I just point out that modifying launch vehicles is not the same as car mods/conversions.

Offline Silmfeanor

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #40 on: 09/07/2011 03:10 pm »

Jim cannot leave Earth, if he did, the NSF forums would become overrun by naive dreamers and overoptimistic people with can-do attitudes.

And what have you done lately that involves actual hardware getting into space?

I just point out that modifying launch vehicles is not the same as car mods/conversions.

I saw that qoute as a positive one; the appeal of this forum is that it is measured by a very healthy dose of reality, and you are a large part of it, thanks!  ;D

Otherwise the forum would be overrun by people refueling skylon with falcon X heavy in 2013, while building a moon base on the first launch of orion. which also orbits mars now.

on topic: nope, won't happen; too much chance for fail. just throw some mass, if you can find a costumer, nice.

Offline baddux

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #41 on: 09/07/2011 06:58 pm »
I think so too that it was actually a compliment to Jim. I at least am grateful that aerospace professionals here spend their time to comment on amateur's speculation.

Offline grr

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #42 on: 09/07/2011 07:01 pm »
For the first FH launch it is adding risk and complexity for the payload to be anything other than an oversized Sputnik that returns TV pictures.

If SpaceX use a high orbit they will have to add a means of de-orbiting the satellite.

Send it BEO.
And let somebody else build a sat for doing just that.
USAF || Naval Academy?

The fact is that FH's real use is going to be either fuel depots in orbit or sending large loads BEO.


------------------------------------------
btw, another idea is for sending 1 or more of google's lunar prize for a low costs.
But can you do that from the launch site?
« Last Edit: 09/07/2011 07:05 pm by grr »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #43 on: 09/07/2011 09:18 pm »

The fact is that FH's real use is going to be either fuel depots in orbit or sending large loads BEO.

Fantasy, the real use is large DOD Polar payloads, and GTO payloads to heavy for the Falcon 9.

Nothing else is funded in that weight class.
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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #44 on: 09/07/2011 09:41 pm »
{snip}

The fact is that FH's real use is going to be either fuel depots in orbit or sending large loads BEO.

If SpaceX wants to start off the fuel depots they could launch a tank containing about 45 mT of propellant, a docking port, the same docking aids used by the ISS and station keeping thrusters.  Sun shields etc. can wait for a later version.

They would have to use a fuel that neither freezes nor boils in LEO.

Offline notsorandom

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #45 on: 09/07/2011 10:19 pm »
SpaceX is a business, and Elon is a very sensible CEO. They are trying to gain cash flow and position themselves in the market. The first demo flight has to test and prove all the systems of the Falcon Heavy that are needed to launch their customer's payloads. No one is going to risk their multimillion dollar satellite on the second Falcon Heavy flight if all the necessary systems are not tested. Flying a Dragon, or doing other stunts like that are contrary to that.

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #46 on: 09/07/2011 10:54 pm »
{snip}

The fact is that FH's real use is going to be either fuel depots in orbit or sending large loads BEO.

If SpaceX wants to start off the fuel depots they could launch a tank containing about 45 mT of propellant, a docking port, the same docking aids used by the ISS and station keeping thrusters.  Sun shields etc. can wait for a later version.

They would have to use a fuel that neither freezes nor boils in LEO.

just plain stupid.  It would be useless.  There are no spacecraft that can use it, especially when you put constraints on the type of propellant. 

Offline Jason1701

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #47 on: 09/07/2011 11:11 pm »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?

Offline Diagoras

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #48 on: 09/08/2011 12:34 am »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?

I've been watching for just that. Though, TBH, if God and jim disagreed, I feel God would have some serious explaining to do.

On an unrelated note - what's a nasachrone curve?
"It’s the typical binary world of 'NASA is great' or 'cancel the space program,' with no nuance or understanding of the underlying issues and pathologies of the space industrial complex."

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #49 on: 09/08/2011 12:44 pm »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?

I've been watching for just that. Though, TBH, if God and jim disagreed, I feel God would have some serious explaining to do.
{snip}

On the demo flight it would be nice for the fuel to be used but is not necessary.  SpaceX just needs to prove that they can lift the mass.

For a demo of the launch vehicle the dummy payload needs the absolute minimum that can go wrong.  The limits on the propellant come from our current technology, zero boil-off technology has not reached TRL 9.  That rules out hydrogen.

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #50 on: 09/08/2011 12:49 pm »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?

I've been watching for just that. Though, TBH, if God and jim disagreed, I feel God would have some serious explaining to do.
{snip}

On the demo flight it would be nice for the fuel to be used but is not necessary.  SpaceX just needs to prove that they can lift the mass.

For a demo of the launch vehicle the dummy payload needs the absolute minimum that can go wrong.  The limits on the propellant come from our current technology, zero boil-off technology has not reached TRL 9.  That rules out hydrogen.

It rules out anything but a dummy mass.  Jeesh

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #51 on: 09/08/2011 01:27 pm »
The real question will should be:
What will the dummy mass weight?
What will the final orbit be?

Will they go for a max capacity mass, or a fraction of the max mass? LEO? HEO? Transfer Orbit?

An argument can be made for going for max mass. If the vehicle under performs, the dummy sat will not make the desired orbit ( and depending on the orbit, may not even make orbit). From a PR stand point it is safer to go with a smaller mass.

My WAG, since this is Vandenberg, a large, but not max mass to a short lived LEO Polar orbit.
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Offline bob the martian

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #52 on: 09/08/2011 05:53 pm »
I can't see the first payload being anything but a mass simulator.  Even without crossfeed, this launch is going to be complicated enough as it is - 27 engines, new pad infrastructure - so trying to do anything else would be unreasonably risky. 

Boring?  Maybe, but I'd rather SpaceX be boring and successful, rather than exciting and bankrupt. 

Besides, if history is a guide, we know there will be at least one delay before the thing flies; it wouldn't make sense to tie yourself to a specific launch window if you can't guarantee that the thing will even work. 

Offline RocketEconomist327

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #53 on: 09/08/2011 06:20 pm »
Has Jim ever agreed with anything Swallow has said?
no
You can talk about all the great things you can do, or want to do, in space; but unless the rocket scientists get a sound understanding of economics (and quickly), the US space program will never achieve the greatness it should.

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Offline notsorandom

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #54 on: 09/08/2011 07:48 pm »
The real question will should be:
What will the dummy mass weight?
What will the final orbit be?

Will they go for a max capacity mass, or a fraction of the max mass? LEO? HEO? Transfer Orbit?

An argument can be made for going for max mass. If the vehicle under performs, the dummy sat will not make the desired orbit ( and depending on the orbit, may not even make orbit). From a PR stand point it is safer to go with a smaller mass.

My WAG, since this is Vandenberg, a large, but not max mass to a short lived LEO Polar orbit.
Bingo, those are the real questions. I wonder if there is a mission plan that can demonstrate more then one mission. In other words show the necessary capabilities for a few different types of orbits. Something like drop the mass simulator off in one orbit then reignite the upper stage a few more times after some loiter periods. Something sort of similar what they did during the COTS 1 mission after dropping the Dragon off.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #55 on: 09/08/2011 08:15 pm »
Something like drop the mass simulator off in one orbit then reignite the upper stage a few more times after some loiter periods.

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Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #56 on: 09/09/2011 08:23 pm »

On the demo flight it would be nice for the fuel to be used but is not necessary.  SpaceX just needs to prove that they can lift the mass.

For a demo of the launch vehicle the dummy payload needs the absolute minimum that can go wrong.  The limits on the propellant come from our current technology, zero boil-off technology has not reached TRL 9.  That rules out hydrogen.

It rules out anything but a dummy mass.  Jeesh

A dummy mass would probably get the rocket men fired for gross professional incompetence.  Without the ability to manoeuvre the payload is immediate space debris.  Parts of 53 ton space objects re-entering LEO can impact the Earth at unplanned locations.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #57 on: 09/09/2011 09:06 pm »

A dummy mass would probably get the rocket men fired for gross professional incompetence.  Without the ability to manoeuvre the payload is immediate space debris.  Parts of 53 ton space objects re-entering LEO can impact the Earth at unplanned locations.

You could not be more wrong.  Your statement is grossly and completely incorrect.  This is just another case that you do not know what you are talking about.

Here are some recent dummy masses. 

http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/hlvolsdp.htm
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/dm-f3.htm

Again, refrain from talking about subjects that you don't know about.
Your statement about incompetence is applicable to others in this case.
« Last Edit: 09/09/2011 09:08 pm by Jim »

Offline simonbp

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #58 on: 09/09/2011 10:52 pm »
Jim, the payload on the first Falcon 9 (Dragon test article) was a bit more complicated/instrumented than the Boeing's dummy masses. It's thus not unreasonable to expect the test payload to be more complicated than giant lumps of inert metal.

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #59 on: 09/10/2011 03:25 am »
Jim, the payload on the first Falcon 9 (Dragon test article) was a bit more complicated/instrumented than the Boeing's dummy masses. It's thus not unreasonable to expect the test payload to be more complicated than giant lumps of inert metal.

My point was that they can be and it is not that big of deal and precedence had been set.  Nobody would be fire and there would be no incompetence.

Offline baddux

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #60 on: 09/10/2011 11:58 am »
Ok you have convinced me that the first FH payload won't leave earth's orbit.

But do you think SpaceX could send Dragon to fly by Mars and return in some later launch with their own money? They could prove the capability of Dragon and FH and advance Elon's personal Mars agenda and probably also convice NASA to use SpaceX hardware for future Mars missions.

Offline Phillip Clark

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #61 on: 09/10/2011 06:14 pm »
If you have a ~53 tonnes payload capability, why not launch all of the paper studies since ~1980 concerning manned return to the Moon, manned Mars missions, etc?

Release the papers in LEO and they will burn up in he atmosphere, so no space debris problems.

Simples!!!!!!!!!

(Yes, that is an attempt at humour.)
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Offline krytek

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #62 on: 09/10/2011 07:07 pm »
They won't fit on a single FH. Maybe you could do it on the inaugural launch of the FXXXX Heavy, with tight margins.

Offline kch

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #63 on: 09/10/2011 07:32 pm »
They won't fit on a single FH. Maybe you could do it on the inaugural launch of the FXXXX Heavy, with tight margins.

Can you imagine the heat pulse from all that paper hitting the atmosphere at once!  Not a pleasant thought ... ;)

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #64 on: 09/10/2011 08:44 pm »
The  heat pulse will be short lived, can you imagine CO2 emissions, it may just trigger a Venus style runaway greenhouse!
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Offline kch

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #65 on: 09/10/2011 09:18 pm »
The  heat pulse will be short lived, can you imagine CO2 emissions, it may just trigger a Venus style runaway greenhouse!

It might at that!  :)

Offline simonbp

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #66 on: 09/11/2011 02:36 am »
My point was that they can be and it is not that big of deal and precedence had been set.  Nobody would be fire and there would be no incompetence.

Well, sorta. The first Atlas V and the first Delta IV both had paying commercial payloads (Hot Bird 6 and Eutelsat W5). Falcon 1 never had a dummy payload; the closest was Demosat on the second flight, which still had some actual experiments on it. Delta III only flew the dummy on the third flight because the first two flights (with commercial payloads) failed.

Delta IV Heavy was the only recent rocket that I'm aware of that flew first with a dummy payload (and good thing too, considering it failed to reach orbit).

So, it's it's possible they could fly a dummy payload, but I'd say the precedent is more for an actual payload, even if it's just an engineering test article.

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #67 on: 09/11/2011 11:50 am »
Falcon 1 never had a dummy payload; the closest was Demosat on the second flight

"Ratsat" on flight 4.

Quote
Delta IV Heavy was the only recent rocket that I'm aware of that flew first with a dummy payload (and good thing too, considering it failed to reach orbit).

It reached an orbit, just lower than the planned one. You just answered yourself why a mass simulator makes the most sense on the first flight - the risk is substantial.
« Last Edit: 09/11/2011 11:54 am by ugordan »

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