Author Topic: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight  (Read 30497 times)

Offline baddux

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Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« on: 09/04/2011 09:08 pm »
If SpaceX is launching the first FH with their own money why not also spend some more for a Dragon for a (obviously unmanned) Mars flyby + return to the Earth.

Reasons:
- Prove that Dragon can return to the Earth from interplanetary space as they have claimed
- Prove that Dragon can operate for two years as they have claimed
- Get some cool video + hi res photos from Mars vicinity
- Do something that has not been done before
- BIG PR

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #1 on: 09/04/2011 09:41 pm »
A successful first flight will be better PR than a failure.

Since a mars flyby mission would be significantly more complicated, it would probably carry a greater risk of failure.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #2 on: 09/04/2011 10:00 pm »
Somehow I don't see a Mars bound flight path from Vandenberg. Maybe a Luna flyby and return.

Offline hop

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #3 on: 09/04/2011 10:00 pm »
Reasons:
- Prove that Dragon can return to the Earth from interplanetary space as they have claimed
- Prove that Dragon can operate for two years as they have claimed
- Get some cool video + hi res photos from Mars vicinity
- Do something that has not been done before
You are making many assumptions which don't seem well grounded in reality:
1) FH  inaugural launch will coincide with a Mars launch window.
2) A Dragon which can actually do those things will be available in time for the first FH flight
3) SpaceX has the resources to operate a long duration deep space mission.
4) SpaceX is willing to invest many millions on a publicity stunt riding on a high risk inaugural launch.

Deep space missions are hard. Based on historical failure rates, they are at least as hard as launching stuff in the first place. It's not something you just throw together on a whim.

Offline majormajor42

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #4 on: 09/04/2011 10:02 pm »
The possible payloads and missions for the first FH flight have been discussed in a few threads before, two I can think of were almost exclusive to this topic but also included some FH possibilities for payloads/missions down the road.

In addition to spacetraveler's point about a successful mission being the most important thing and increasing the complexity might increase teh risk of failure and bad PR, there are a couple other points to be made:

We don't know if the first FH is still without or will be without a primary payload. Someone may still come along willing to pay millions of dollars for a bargain ride into space.

The launch site is VAFB where almost all flights go into polar orbit. since you don't get a boost from the Earth's rotation, it might be enough to prevent a FH from launching a Dragon to Mars or even the Moon.

We aren't sure yet if the initial FH launch will be cross fed. If it is not, that would also reduce the payload potential of the first flight.


I'm still excited by the simple things that this flight could accomplish, besides just showing that the FH is here. They could simply launch into polar orbit and recover a Dragon. Nothing that large has ever been recovered from polar orbit. They could also use one of the Dragon's that has, at that point, been to the ISS already. Since NASA isn't allowing them to recycle Dragon's for ISS purposes, it would be the first time that a Dragon has gone back into space for a second time - something that SpaceX may really want to show off.
...water is life and it is out there, where we intend to go. I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man or machine on a body such as the Moon and harvest a cup of water for a human to drink or process into fuel for their craft.

Offline Patchouli

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #5 on: 09/04/2011 10:58 pm »
A lunar flyby would be a lot easier and would be enough of a PR stunt without adding much risk.

Offline BigDustyman

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #6 on: 09/04/2011 11:32 pm »
A lunar flyby would be a lot easier and would be enough of a PR stunt without adding much risk.

I tend to agree with you on this,and would like to see them send version with all needed life support equipment on board to prove they could do it with humans. Seems like that would be excellent sales pitch for BEO

Offline manboy

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #7 on: 09/04/2011 11:52 pm »
A lunar flyby would be a lot easier and would be enough of a PR stunt without adding much risk.

I tend to agree with you on this,and would like to see them send version with all needed life support equipment on board to prove they could do it with humans. Seems like that would be excellent sales pitch for BEO
But would they have a spare Dragon for when the launch date rolls around?
« Last Edit: 09/04/2011 11:53 pm by manboy »
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Offline SpacexULA

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #8 on: 09/05/2011 12:04 am »
But would they have a spare Dragon for when the launch date rolls around?

By 2013 they could have as many as 9 recovered dragons, or as little as 1.  But even a lunar payload would entail more risk than just inserting a mass simulator into LEO or GTO.

The 100% mission success rate has been set up as the gold standard by ULA, I have a feeling SpaceX is going to play it as safe as possible with Falcon Heavy considering it's going to have to compete for contracts with the Swiss Watch of US space Launch, the Atlas 5.

A stunt lunar flyby isn’t going to impress SpaceX’s customers (but it might inflame the SLS protectors considering it could be seen as a direct threat to SLS if it’s still around at that time), but a failure because of the heightened difficulty of the mission will still be counted as a failure to the people with the check books.

If SpaceX wants to keep it’s insurance costs low, and gain the trust to carry truly valuable payloads, they need to maintain as close to a 100% success rate as they can, or they will lose every time to ULA.
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Offline Jason1701

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #9 on: 09/05/2011 01:00 am »
Vandenberg will most likely not have a Dragon processing facility, at least for a while.

Offline spacetraveler

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #10 on: 09/05/2011 03:58 am »
ULA hasn't had a 100% success rate. They've had several rockets explode and several that resulted in incorrect final orbits. However I do think that a failure at this point hurts SpaceX a lot more than it does ULA given their longer track record of near universal success.

Offline neilh

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #11 on: 09/05/2011 04:05 am »
Vandenberg will most likely not have a Dragon processing facility, at least for a while.

Yup, that sounds like a pretty big blocker. My personal hope is Elon Musk's old Mars Oasis mission design, but I'm not sure if that'd be doable without hypergolics.

Due to the experimental nature of the flight, I suspect SpaceX probably won't be pre-announcing any "bonus" payloads/missions, same as their prior test flights.
« Last Edit: 09/05/2011 04:06 am by neilh »
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Offline beancounter

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #12 on: 09/05/2011 08:01 am »
ULA hasn't had a 100% success rate. They've had several rockets explode and several that resulted in incorrect final orbits. However I do think that a failure at this point hurts SpaceX a lot more than it does ULA given their longer track record of near universal success.
I don't understand this.  COTS is a milestone-based test program.  That's the nature of the beast.  If a flight goes wrong for some reason, then they determine the cause, fix it, and progress onto the next one.  NASA won't allow CRS to get underway until they are sure SpaceX has a reliable system.  Same goes for Orbital.
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Offline spacetraveler

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #13 on: 09/05/2011 09:20 am »
ULA hasn't had a 100% success rate. They've had several rockets explode and several that resulted in incorrect final orbits. However I do think that a failure at this point hurts SpaceX a lot more than it does ULA given their longer track record of near universal success.
I don't understand this.  COTS is a milestone-based test program.  That's the nature of the beast.  If a flight goes wrong for some reason, then they determine the cause, fix it, and progress onto the next one.  NASA won't allow CRS to get underway until they are sure SpaceX has a reliable system.  Same goes for Orbital.

This thread is about FH, not F9, COTS, or CRS. FH has nothing to do with those. NASA isn't even the intended customer, DOD is. DOD is not going to allow their stuff to fly on something that is not proven successful, which is why a failure of FH early in the lifecycle would hurt SpaceX.

Offline douglas100

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #14 on: 09/05/2011 10:19 am »
ULA hasn't had a 100% success rate. They've had several rockets explode and several that resulted in incorrect final orbits.

Off topic, but I've got to ask the question: which ULA rockets have exploded? Perhaps you could post a link to support this assertion?

Back on topic. I think the idea of launching a Dragon on a Mars flyby on the first FH is a complete non starter. Good reasons have already been given by other posters on this thread.
Douglas Clark

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #15 on: 09/05/2011 12:19 pm »
Come to think of it. We don't really need the Dragon capsule for a Mars or Luna flyby mission.

All it require is a modified Dragon trunk. Put an optical array inside  the trunk. Increase the internal battery capacity. Add same secondary sensors.

Replace the Dragon with a hypergolic engine array and spherical propellant tanks inside a payload fairing.

So the spacecraft stack would be upside down compare to most  spacecrafts.

Wonder if such a demonstrator be put together on a small budget and compact development team in time for the inaugural  FH laubch.

Offline A_M_Swallow

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #16 on: 09/05/2011 12:48 pm »
For the first FH launch it is adding risk and complexity for the payload to be anything other than an oversized Sputnik that returns TV pictures.

If SpaceX use a high orbit they will have to add a means of de-orbiting the satellite.

Offline Jim

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #17 on: 09/05/2011 01:30 pm »
Come to think of it. We don't really need the Dragon capsule for a Mars or Luna flyby mission.

All it require is a modified Dragon trunk. Put an optical array inside  the trunk. Increase the internal battery capacity. Add same secondary sensors.

Replace the Dragon with a hypergolic engine array and spherical propellant tanks inside a payload fairing.

So the spacecraft stack would be upside down compare to most  spacecrafts.

Wonder if such a demonstrator be put together on a small budget and compact development team in time for the inaugural  FH laubch.

It isn't that simple.  The avionics are in the dragon.
hypergolic engine arrays and spherical propellant tanks are just laying around to be used.

The fairing and trunk would interfere with each other since they attach to the second stage at the same interface

Offline baldusi

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #18 on: 09/05/2011 02:51 pm »
I would go for a GTO like insertion of a mass simulator. If they feel very confident, they could do a dogleg or plane change with the second stage, just to show the capabilities to potential clients. If they are really serious, and want to do any kind of extra demonstration, I would put a dual satellite dispenser (but not tell anybody about it),and try to do a dual manifested payload simulation. With that they would have demonstrated almost everything needed for competing with Ariane 5 and Proton (save East Coast launch pad).

Offline jbrooks

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Re: Dragon Mars flyby for the first FH flight
« Reply #19 on: 09/05/2011 03:07 pm »
I would go for a GTO like insertion of a mass simulator. If they feel very confident, they could do a dogleg or plane change with the second stage, just to show the capabilities to potential clients. If they are really serious, and want to do any kind of extra demonstration, I would put a dual satellite dispenser (but not tell anybody about it),and try to do a dual manifested payload simulation. With that they would have demonstrated almost everything needed for competing with Ariane 5 and Proton (save East Coast launch pad).
Agree completely. FH's prospective customers - DOD and commercial satellite co.'s - won't be using a dragon. The first mission is a demonstration, so I'd show that the system can get the stated mass to GTO, and that the payload fairing works (I'm remembering Glory here), other capabilities, etc.

Note - F9 has a dozen missions on manifest that would require a fairing and hasn't demonstrated an F9 launch w/ one yet - though I understand that their focus is on COTS and CRS right now...

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