Author Topic: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites  (Read 22321 times)

Offline VDD1991

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Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« on: 01/06/2014 09:43 pm »
While on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KH-11_Kennan#KH-11_missions), I happened to see the decay dates for the following Keyhole-11 (KH-11) satellites:

USA 27 (decayed 11 June 1992)
USA-33 (decayed 12 May 1996)
USA-86 (decayed 5 June 2000)
USA-116 (decayed 19 November 2008)

I discussed this with Kelso (Celestrak.org) by email and he forwarded me to say that the decay dates given on Wikipedia for those satellites may be a product of disinformation. I also happened to see Cosmos 1220 marked with a decay date of June 20, 1982 (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Kosmos_satellites_(1001–1250)), even thought the website http://www.satview.org/lista_sat.php?cat=tle_decay says that Cosmos 1220 is expected to decay next month, leading me to suspect whether the decay date given on Wikipedia is disinformation too. Does anyone have first-hand confirmation that USA 27, USA 33, USA 86, and USA 116 decayed from orbit?
« Last Edit: 02/15/2014 06:52 pm by input~2 »

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #1 on: 01/07/2014 11:55 am »
I thought the KH-11's where intentionally de-orbited and not allowed to decay. I believe the dates are not announced, just noticed as no longer being in orbit by amateur satellite trackers.

So any date should be taken with a grain of salt.

I highly recommend going though the seesat ( http://www.satobs.org/seesat/ ) archives in an attempt to pin down when they where de-orbited.
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Offline daver

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #2 on: 02/14/2014 05:16 pm »
Here's a good link to track it.  http://www.satview.org/?sat_id=12054U

Offline input~2

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Decaying Cosmos 1220 satellite
« Reply #3 on: 02/15/2014 06:40 pm »
USSTRATCOM predicts a reentry of Cosmos 1220 tonight at 02:47UTC ± 4.5 hours (over Central California at the center of the window).
The Aerospace Corp has about the same predicted reentry window:  02:29 UTC ± 4 hours
« Last Edit: 02/15/2014 06:53 pm by input~2 »

Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #4 on: 02/15/2014 08:09 pm »
New USSTRATCOM reentry time prediction: 01:43UTC ± 2 hours (off Cyprus at window center)

Offline Star One

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Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #5 on: 02/15/2014 10:55 pm »
Watch out below! Russian satellite set to hit earth TOMORROW poses 'very real danger', experts warn. :)

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2560332/Watch-Russian-satellite-set-hit-earth-TOMORROW.html#ixzz2tRDZ4aNj

How accurate is that image of Cosmos 1220 used in it?
« Last Edit: 02/15/2014 10:59 pm by Star One »

Offline Jarnis

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #6 on: 02/16/2014 05:24 am »
Local news articles claim it came down somewhere over Saudi Arabia. Anyone heard of anything more exact?

Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #7 on: 02/16/2014 08:42 am »
According to USSTRATCOM, Cosmos 1220 (12054/1980-089A) reentered Feb 16 at 01:40:00 UTC ± 30s over 28N39E (Northern Saudi Arabia), descending.
« Last Edit: 02/16/2014 08:46 am by input~2 »

Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #8 on: 02/16/2014 09:31 am »
Watch out below! Russian satellite set to hit earth TOMORROW poses 'very real danger', experts warn. :)

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2560332/Watch-Russian-satellite-set-hit-earth-TOMORROW.html#ixzz2tRDZ4aNj

How accurate is that image of Cosmos 1220 used in it?
The legend says "This is a stock image"

Offline gwiz

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #9 on: 02/16/2014 10:03 am »
Kosmos 1220 exploded in 1982, so it's just one fragment (the largest?) of it that's decayed.

Here's a more fact-based picture:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/us-p.htm
« Last Edit: 02/16/2014 10:13 am by gwiz »

Offline gwiz

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #10 on: 02/16/2014 11:45 am »
I thought the KH-11's where intentionally de-orbited and not allowed to decay. I believe the dates are not announced, just noticed as no longer being in orbit by amateur satellite trackers.

So any date should be taken with a grain of salt.

I highly recommend going though the seesat ( http://www.satobs.org/seesat/ ) archives in an attempt to pin down when they where de-orbited.
Do that and you find this:
http://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/Electro-optical_KeyHole_satellite_lifetime_1.pdf

Offline Star One

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #11 on: 02/16/2014 03:27 pm »

Kosmos 1220 exploded in 1982, so it's just one fragment (the largest?) of it that's decayed.

Here's a more fact-based picture:
http://space.skyrocket.de/doc_sdat/us-p.htm

Thank you for that image and article.

Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #12 on: 02/16/2014 05:35 pm »
Kosmos 1220 exploded in 1982, so it's just one fragment (the largest?) of it that's decayed.
USSTRATCOM has catalogued tens of debris from this '82 Cosmos 1220 explosion (1980-089C to 089AF and beyond) which reentered between 1982 and 1992.

Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #13 on: 02/16/2014 06:45 pm »
According to Russian military sources the reentry took place at 01:58 UTC
http://itar-tass.com/nauka/972562

Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #14 on: 02/16/2014 07:12 pm »
Report of "flaming ball" sightings in Saudi Arabia
http://www.al-sharq.com/news/details/211558

Offline Star One

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #15 on: 02/16/2014 08:18 pm »

Report of "flaming ball" sightings in Saudi Arabia
http://www.al-sharq.com/news/details/211558

I wonder if any of it survived to reach the ground.

Offline kevin-rf

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #16 on: 02/16/2014 09:09 pm »
Considering home much of it re-enter'd years ago, I wonder is this is a very dense part of the structure. Something that could survive all the way to the ground... Surviving propulsion section?
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Offline input~2

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #17 on: 02/16/2014 09:39 pm »
The radar cross section for the reentering portion of Cosmos 1220 was 10.335 m², comparable to that of a reentering CZ-3B 3rd stage or Cosmos 1773 (Yantar-4K2)


Offline jcm

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Re: Decayed Keyhole and Cosmos satellites
« Reply #19 on: 02/17/2014 05:23 pm »
While on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/KH-11_Kennan#KH-11_missions), I happened to see the decay dates for the following Keyhole-11 (KH-11) satellites:
  I also happened to see Cosmos 1220 marked with a decay date of June 20, 1982 (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Kosmos_satellites_(1001–1250)), even thought the website http://www.satview.org/lista_sat.php?cat=tle_decay says that Cosmos 1220 is expected to decay next month, leading me to suspect whether the decay date given on Wikipedia is disinformation too. 

Never assume disinformation when incompetence will explain it.

Kosmos-1220 did disintegrate on June 20, 1982, and I entered that 'end-of-existence' date in my database, which ultimately got propagated to Wikipedia.  However, it has since become clear that the explosions of US-P class satellites,
in contrast to many other satellite explosions, leave the main body of the satellite substantially intact. So I shouldn't
have marked that date as an 'exploded' date. There are problems with the end-of-life dates of the other US-P satellites too.


The main body of Kosmos-1220 remained associated with catalog number 12054. There was one other large piece,
13349, but it was last tracked in Oct 1982 in a 555 x 757 km orbit and is reported to have decayed in Dec 1982, so it was presumably a lightweight piece like the solar panel array. The slow decay of 12054 confirms that it had a large mass-to-surface-area ratio and so is presumed to be the main body of the satellite.

As for the KH-11 decay dates, they come from the amateur observers and represent the dates after which the satellites
were not seen again. It is JUST possible that NRO decided to move the satellites to a different orbit to confuse the amateurs, but these hobbyists are pretty good and I would be surprised if such big sats had not been seen again in the intervening
years, whatever orbit the satellites went to.  So I tend to think those dates are good to within plus or minus a week.
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Tags: Cosmos 1939 
 

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