Author Topic: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site  (Read 331488 times)

Offline psloss

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #300 on: 01/12/2013 02:12 pm »
Remember, Columbia was "too heavy in the rear end" as Bob Crippen said at the STS-107 memorial for a flight to the ISS.
This is a myth really. She was to have flown STS-118 in November 2003, a mission to deliver and install the S5 Short Spacer ITS along with a SpaceHAB SLM with supplies to ISS.

What she couldn't launch was the big heavy trusses.
A recent thread covers this tangent (mostly):
http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=26653.0

Offline bobthemonkey

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Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #302 on: 01/13/2013 04:25 pm »
It's starting to look like the killer, at least in terms of identifying the problem correctly, was the lack of good ascent imagery.  Because no-one knew that the leading edge moulding had been hit but rather thought that the damage was to the underside of the wing, none of the risk analyses were even in the right ballpark.  All those words were just that - words.  None of the analyses or confident assertions had any relevance to STS-107's actual situation.

And no-one knew that until it was too late.

Hindsight is a horrible thing.
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Offline Wayne Hale

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #303 on: 01/15/2013 02:21 am »
Ben,
The more pertinent question for the future is why was there not better ascent imagery?
Keep digging.

Offline iamlucky13

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #304 on: 01/15/2013 04:12 am »
From the CAIB report:
Quote
The image analysis was hampered by the lack of high resolution and high speed ground-based cameras. The existing camera locations are a legacy of earlier NASA programs, and are not optimum for the high-inclination Space Shuttle missions to the International Space Station and oftentimes cameras are not operating or, as in the case of STS-107, out of focus. Launch Commit Criteria should include that sufficient cameras are operating to track the Shuttle from liftoff to Solid Rocket Booster separation.
Similarly, a developmental vehicle like the Shuttle should be equipped with high resolution cameras that monitor potential hazard areas.

Even with what we did have, I'm amazed at the detail that is visible from 17 miles away.

I'm not sure if you were hinting at more than the above, but at a minimum the last couple posts have a consistent theme of a limited will (at first I typed "interest" but "will" fits better with what you wrote) to investigate further, endemic throughout the organization. Imagery during launch was not made a priority, previous foam loss didn't raise alarms, there was little challenge to the damage scenarios presented, and even though on-orbit imagery might have been too little and too late, the request for it was discouraged.

Quote
We are never ever going to say that there is nothing we can do.

Good quote.

I often wonder about the two contingency scenarios outlined in the CAIB report. They seem like longshots, but they're something and the only way to know would have been to try.

I noticed you dismissed the repair option, but if I remember right, the CAIB report refused to make a determination either way. I personally lean towards it for the advantage of not placing another crew at risk with a rushed rescue flight, but it probably would have been a tough call had the hypothetical debate taken place.

Offline sdsds

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #305 on: 01/15/2013 10:13 am »
Mr Hale has done an excellent job of pointing at the fundamental issue, which transcends specifics like ascent imagery. I'd sum it up as, "Before you rely on a system to function properly, be confident you know what state the system is in."

One way to be confident is to have an immediate measure of the system. (E.g.: for TPS, the Shuttle program developed the OBSS.) Another way is to have a previous measure, and to maintain control of the environment to which the system is exposed. (E.g.: for Apollo, the re-entry heat shield was inspected before flight and protected throughout the mission.) Either way you're reasonably confident your information about the current state of the system is correct.

There's a saying, "Garbage in; garbage out." In the context of decision-making, lack of state information is the garbage going in.
— 𝐬𝐝𝐒𝐝𝐬 —

Offline wolfpack

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #306 on: 01/15/2013 01:16 pm »
Ben,
The more pertinent question for the future is why was there not better ascent imagery?
Keep digging.

After seeing the video from the fore and aft SRB cameras in addition to the ET camera, I found myself wondering why these were not a requirement for the program since STS-1. Of all the technical challenges STS presented during its development, I can't believe that adding cameras would have ranked highly among them. Apollo boosters even had cameras in the cryo tanks!

There is no substitute for knowledge. Knowledge is power.

Offline Jim

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #307 on: 01/15/2013 02:03 pm »

After seeing the video from the fore and aft SRB cameras in addition to the ET camera, I found myself wondering why these were not a requirement for the program since STS-1. Of all the technical challenges STS presented during its development, I can't believe that adding cameras would have ranked highly among them. Apollo boosters even had cameras in the cryo tanks!

There is no substitute for knowledge. Knowledge is power.

technology.  The Apollo cameras were film, which were jettisoned.  You didn't see video cameras on ELV's until the 90's.  Size and bandwidth downlink were issues.
« Last Edit: 01/15/2013 02:04 pm by Jim »

Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #308 on: 01/17/2013 02:50 am »
Right then....grim reading, but this is where this was all heading:

http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2013/01/17/after-ten-years-the-moment-of-truth/

Couple of really obvious areas of interest, such as the ground track had they waved off the first deorbit burn opportunity. I didn't know the potential outcome of one rev late, only what the USA guys said about Columbia burning her RCS right through until the prop ran out, which may have helped change the debris path away from population.

I don't want anyone asking about more on the crew, as much as I would expect our crowd to be respectful on that.
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Offline spaceStalker

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #309 on: 01/17/2013 07:19 am »
Quote
The toe of the ellipse – where the heaviest pieces would come down – cut across the southwestern suburbs of Houston. My home – my wife – would have been in the target zone where the 2 ton steel main engine combustion chambers would have hit the ground at supersonic speeds. JSC would have been at ground zero for the debris; the MCC would likely have been struck. That is a scenario that is just too implausible for words.

I read this and think - if that happened it would eradicate space shuttle from existence in a heart beat.

No?

Offline Archibald

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #310 on: 01/17/2013 07:47 am »
Quote
The toe of the ellipse – where the heaviest pieces would come down – cut across the southwestern suburbs of Houston. My home – my wife – would have been in the target zone where the 2 ton steel main engine combustion chambers would have hit the ground at supersonic speeds. JSC would have been at ground zero for the debris; the MCC would likely have been struck. That is a scenario that is just too implausible for words.

I read this and think - if that happened it would eradicate space shuttle from existence in a heart beat.

No?

This is incredible. Sounds  like the scenario of a very bad disaster movie of the 70's, the kind loaded with heavy symbolism (the bad shuttle fails and destroys the bad organization that designed it).
Han shot first and Gwynne Shotwell !

Offline Ben the Space Brit

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #311 on: 01/17/2013 12:02 pm »
The video of the inside of the MCC at that moment is one of the most powerful bits of factual footage that I've ever seen - the dawning horror on the controllers' faces as CAPCOM's calls to Columbia go unanswered.  This is the first time that I realised just how horrible the experience must have been for the team at KSC who, lacking consoles, probably didn't know anything until JSC called them to warn that they had lost comms.

Tiny insights on a type of experience that, thankfully, most of us will never have to experience first-hand.

Still, as Wayne pointed out, as astonishing as it seems it could have been horrendously worse.  I'm not sure if NASA as we know it could have survived if Columbia had crashed onto Houston.

Interesting question from one of Wayne's readers on his blog:

Quote
Quick question; do new flight controllers in any way review the Apollo-1, Challenger and Columbia accident histories for historical and lessons learned perspectives as part of their training activities?

I'm not sure about flight controllers.  In all cases, those LOCs were engineering rather than mission control failures so there is little to be 'learnt' other than how a trainee team would handle a catastrophic loss of vehicle and crew with (in the case of Columbia) a potential knock-on hazard to the population centres along the ground track.

However, I would imagine that all of these tragedies form part of the primers for engineers, mission planners, safety team members, managers and in-flight data analysts.  There are things that can be learnt from all three events of things not to do, things that you must do and attitudes that cannot ever be allowed to develop in your team.
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Offline JSC Phil

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #312 on: 01/17/2013 02:07 pm »
The video of the inside of the MCC at that moment is one of the most powerful bits of factual footage that I've ever seen - the dawning horror on the controllers' faces as CAPCOM's calls to Columbia go unanswered.

You train for that, but in reality, you can't really train for that.

I'm in that video.

Offline Jim

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #313 on: 01/17/2013 02:30 pm »

However, I would imagine that all of these tragedies form part of the primers for engineers, mission planners, safety team members, managers and in-flight data analysts.  There are things that can be learnt from all three events of things not to do, things that you must do and attitudes that cannot ever be allowed to develop in your team.

Not really.  Projects reviewed the CAIB report for applicability to their projects when it came out and not much since then.

Offline psloss

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #314 on: 01/17/2013 03:22 pm »
This is the first time that I realised just how horrible the experience must have been for the team at KSC who, lacking consoles, probably didn't know anything until JSC called them to warn that they had lost comms.
It would have depended on whether they could hear the air-to-ground audio (there was certainly tension that could be inferred from it).  Published recollections from others at the SLF implied some were aware they hadn't got tracking from MILA, probably before it was hinted at in the PAO commentary.
« Last Edit: 01/17/2013 03:23 pm by psloss »

Offline Chris Bergin

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Offline Chris Bergin

Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #316 on: 01/31/2013 04:54 pm »
Just to note, Chris Gebhardt has written a 6,000 word article for the 10th Anniversary....not a usual STS-107 anniversary article, as it's a full mission review, focusing on that element of the mission.

It's amazing.
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Offline Jester

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Offline spaceStalker

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Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #318 on: 01/31/2013 07:31 pm »
New part:

http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2013/01/29/after-ten-years-picking-up-the-pieces/

I was reading the comments and the part with payload bay doors found make me want to see them. Not only them but is there archive where I can find pictures of debris being field recovered?
« Last Edit: 01/31/2013 07:32 pm by spaceStalker »

Offline wjbarnett

Re: Wayne Hale sets up his own blog site
« Reply #319 on: 01/31/2013 07:53 pm »
http://waynehale.wordpress.com/2013/01/31/after-ten-years-enduring-lessons/
Important lessons to be remembered and acted upon by engineers of all types, whether in aerospace, nuc, chem, mech, bio-, civil or what every human does: life engineer!
Jack

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