Author Topic: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023  (Read 7623 times)

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« on: 11/08/2023 05:36 am »
https://twitter.com/cosmic_penguin/status/1722138997257035821

Quote
"We've launched more mass to orbit than *everyone else* did *every year* in history, unless you count the lovely Space Shuttle Orbiters by themselves."

"What have you done today?"

(Graphics by @planet4589: https://planet4589.org/space/stats/pay.html)

twitter.com/spacex/status/1722135185674895655

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Falcon 9 launches 23 @Starlink satellites to orbit from Florida. We’ve now launched 80 times in 2023, delivering more than 1,000 metric tons to orbit

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #1 on: 11/12/2023 08:37 pm »
Quote
Falcon has delivered over 1000 tons to orbit this year, a world record

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1723425755739082961

Quote
This is significantly more than any country has launched with their entire rocket fleet in a year. Second is peak Soviet Union at ~500 tons.

For a present day comparison, the rest of the world has delivered ~250 tons to orbit so far this year, mostly by China.

Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #2 on: 11/12/2023 08:48 pm »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.
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Offline Metalskin

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #3 on: 11/12/2023 08:55 pm »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.

What is the maximum payload total for space shuttle in a year?

To me it's obvious that only payload should be included in such comparisons. Including the vehicle does not make sense IMHO.
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Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #4 on: 11/12/2023 09:06 pm »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.

What is the maximum payload total for space shuttle in a year?

To me it's obvious that only payload should be included in such comparisons. Including the vehicle does not make sense IMHO.

I would not count it if it wasn’t carrying people… but it is, so it’s also not fair to not count at least some of it.

The compromise I came to for my method was to estimate how heavy an unmanned version of the shuttle would weigh and subtract the difference.

The same will have to be done when a manned Starship flies too.
« Last Edit: 11/12/2023 09:08 pm by ZachF »
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Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #5 on: 11/12/2023 09:37 pm »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.

What is the maximum payload total for space shuttle in a year?

To me it's obvious that only payload should be included in such comparisons. Including the vehicle does not make sense IMHO.

I would not count it if it wasn’t carrying people… but it is, so it’s also not fair to not count at least some of it.

The compromise I came to for my method was to estimate how heavy an unmanned version of the shuttle would weigh and subtract the difference.

The same will have to be done when a manned Starship flies too.
Here is a related accounting dilemma: How do you count a Starship HLS?  Clearly(?) a BO appendix P HLS is counted as 100% payload mass to orbit from Earth. So why is a Starship HLS not counted as 100% payload mass to orbit?

Online Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #6 on: 11/12/2023 11:26 pm »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.

What is the maximum payload total for space shuttle in a year?

To me it's obvious that only payload should be included in such comparisons. Including the vehicle does not make sense IMHO.

I would not count it if it wasn’t carrying people… but it is, so it’s also not fair to not count at least some of it.

The compromise I came to for my method was to estimate how heavy an unmanned version of the shuttle would weigh and subtract the difference.

The same will have to be done when a manned Starship flies too.
Here is a related accounting dilemma: How do you count a Starship HLS?  Clearly(?) a BO appendix P HLS is counted as 100% payload mass to orbit from Earth. So why is a Starship HLS not counted as 100% payload mass to orbit?
Keyword is payload as in deliverable payload. So only the payloads embarked aboard the Moonship (HLS Starship) should count including the cargo, crew & consumables.

Offline Barley

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #7 on: 11/12/2023 11:52 pm »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.

What is the maximum payload total for space shuttle in a year?

To me it's obvious that only payload should be included in such comparisons. Including the vehicle does not make sense IMHO.

I would not count it if it wasn’t carrying people… but it is, so it’s also not fair to not count at least some of it.


Depends on what the people are there for.  If they're just there to lower the landing gear neither they nor their life support should count at all.

But mass to orbit will always be an imperfect metric.  It's better to just accept that than try to refine it into a different, equally imperfect metric.

Offline Brigantine

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #8 on: 11/13/2023 12:13 am »
On that topic, does the X37 count as payload then? Or just the experiments on board?

Online DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #9 on: 11/13/2023 12:13 am »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.

What is the maximum payload total for space shuttle in a year?

To me it's obvious that only payload should be included in such comparisons. Including the vehicle does not make sense IMHO.

I would not count it if it wasn’t carrying people… but it is, so it’s also not fair to not count at least some of it.

The compromise I came to for my method was to estimate how heavy an unmanned version of the shuttle would weigh and subtract the difference.

The same will have to be done when a manned Starship flies too.
Here is a related accounting dilemma: How do you count a Starship HLS?  Clearly(?) a BO appendix P HLS is counted as 100% payload mass to orbit from Earth. So why is a Starship HLS not counted as 100% payload mass to orbit?
Keyword is payload as in deliverable payload. So only the payloads embarked aboard the Moonship (HLS Starship) should count including the cargo, crew & consumables.
But that leads to the bizarre conclusion that the much less capable BO HLS counts as more payload mass to orbit than the Starship HLS.

Online Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #10 on: 11/13/2023 01:45 am »
<snip>
Here is a related accounting dilemma: How do you count a Starship HLS?  Clearly(?) a BO appendix P HLS is counted as 100% payload mass to orbit from Earth. So why is a Starship HLS not counted as 100% payload mass to orbit?
Keyword is payload as in deliverable payload. So only the payloads embarked aboard the Moonship (HLS Starship) should count including the cargo, crew & consumables.
But that leads to the bizarre conclusion that the much less capable BO HLS counts as more payload mass to orbit than the Starship HLS.
Not if you consider the payload mass delivered to the Lunar surface.

However for IMLEO purpose the SpaceX Moonship and the BO HLS lander along with embarked payloads counts as payloads for their launcher.

Just keep separate payload mass numbers for getting to parking orbit at LEO and final destination after departure from parking orbit.

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #11 on: 11/13/2023 01:47 am »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.

What is the maximum payload total for space shuttle in a year?

To me it's obvious that only payload should be included in such comparisons. Including the vehicle does not make sense IMHO.

I would not count it if it wasn’t carrying people… but it is, so it’s also not fair to not count at least some of it.


Depends on what the people are there for.  If they're just there to lower the landing gear neither they nor their life support should count at all.

But mass to orbit will always be an imperfect metric.  It's better to just accept that than try to refine it into a different, equally imperfect metric.

Personally, if I were to determine 'total mass to orbit' launched by an organization, company, or country I would even include the mass of empty rocket stages that entered orbit - even if the stage was only in orbit for less than a couple of orbits.

That means that I would include in the mass SpaceX has placed into orbit at least the dry mass of the more than 80 Falcon 9 second stages launched this year - even though most of them have since reentered Earth's atmosphere. That alone would account for 332t to orbit even without taking into account any remaining propellants.

My definition also means that the space shuttles entire mass would be included, not just the mass needed to support the crew. In 1985 the Shuttle launched 9 times - accounting for more than 700t placed into orbit.

Payload mass to orbit would not count any upper stages that reach orbit unless the useful payload is attached to them.
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 09:07 am by AmigaClone »

Offline FutureSpaceTourist

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #12 on: 12/07/2023 07:54 am »
https://twitter.com/brycespacetech/status/1729232649187709207

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The Q3 2023 Bryce Briefing is now available.

Download the quarterly launch data: https://brycetech.com/briefing

#BryceBriefing #Data #Space #Launch

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1732393496428896557

Quote
SpaceX is tracking to launch over 80% of all Earth payload to orbit this year

Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #13 on: 12/07/2023 12:39 pm »
Here’s what my dV adjusted YTD totals look like:

1,721,637 kga 🌎 World

1,373,983 kga 🇺🇸 United States
1,325,443 kga 🇺🇸 SpaceX
180,032 kga 🇨🇳 China
97,539 kga 🇷🇺 Russia
40,473 kga 🇺🇸 ULA
36,383 kga 🇪🇺 Ariane & Vega
24,459 kga 🇮🇳 India
7,398 kga 🇯🇵 Japan
738 kga 🇳🇿 RocketLab
373 kga 🇰🇷 South Korea
369 kga 🇰🇵 North Korea
351 kga 🇮🇱 Israel
13 kga 🇮🇷 Iran

While each orbit is calculated individually, here are what the adjustment factors look like for popular orbit insertions:

1.00x 185km x 27d LEO
1.06x 400km x 57d LEO-ISS
1.24x 500km SSO
2.22x GTO-1800
2.42x Molniya
2.44x GTO-1500
2.75x TLI
3.94x Direct GEO


So, Falcon 9 sending 17,250kg of Starlink satellites to 290km x 43d adjusts to 17,986.

Sending a 5,500kg payload to GTO-1800 adjusts to 12,210.

Ariane 5 sending 9,500kg to GTO-1500 adjusts to 23,180.

Delta IV Heavy sending 6,000 kg directly to GEO adjusts to 23,640.

Etc…
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
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Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #14 on: 12/07/2023 12:44 pm »
Chart looks somewhat similar to my dV adjusted mass to orbit chart.

The biggest dilemma was how to tally the shuttle, as counting the entire mass of the orbiter isn’t a fair representation IMHO.

What is the maximum payload total for space shuttle in a year?

To me it's obvious that only payload should be included in such comparisons. Including the vehicle does not make sense IMHO.

I would not count it if it wasn’t carrying people… but it is, so it’s also not fair to not count at least some of it.


Depends on what the people are there for.  If they're just there to lower the landing gear neither they nor their life support should count at all.

But mass to orbit will always be an imperfect metric.  It's better to just accept that than try to refine it into a different, equally imperfect metric.

Personally, if I were to determine 'total mass to orbit' launched by an organization, company, or country I would even include the mass of empty rocket stages that entered orbit - even if the stage was only in orbit for less than a couple of orbits.

That means that I would include in the mass SpaceX has placed into orbit at least the dry mass of the more than 80 Falcon 9 second stages launched this year - even though most of them have since reentered Earth's atmosphere. That alone would account for 332t to orbit even without taking into account any remaining propellants.

My definition also means that the space shuttles entire mass would be included, not just the mass needed to support the crew. In 1985 the Shuttle launched 9 times - accounting for more than 700t placed into orbit.

Payload mass to orbit would not count any upper stages that reach orbit unless the useful payload is attached to them.

The reason I don’t count upper stages is because if a satellite operator had a 5t satellite that needed to get to GTO-1800, if I counted upper stages it would provide different values for different rockets even though the actual service provided was the same. I wanted to create a system where the same service creates the same value.
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Offline Rebel44

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #15 on: 12/08/2023 07:18 am »
Here’s what my dV adjusted YTD totals look like:

1,721,637 kga 🌎 World

1,373,983 kga 🇺🇸 United States
1,325,443 kga 🇺🇸 SpaceX
180,032 kga 🇨🇳 China
97,539 kga 🇷🇺 Russia
40,473 kga 🇺🇸 ULA
36,383 kga 🇪🇺 Ariane & Vega
24,459 kga 🇮🇳 India
7,398 kga 🇯🇵 Japan
738 kga 🇳🇿 RocketLab
373 kga 🇰🇷 South Korea
369 kga 🇰🇵 North Korea
351 kga 🇮🇱 Israel
13 kga 🇮🇷 Iran

While each orbit is calculated individually, here are what the adjustment factors look like for popular orbit insertions:

1.00x 185km x 27d LEO
1.06x 400km x 57d LEO-ISS
1.24x 500km SSO
2.22x GTO-1800
2.42x Molniya
2.44x GTO-1500
2.75x TLI
3.94x Direct GEO


So, Falcon 9 sending 17,250kg of Starlink satellites to 290km x 43d adjusts to 17,986.

Sending a 5,500kg payload to GTO-1800 adjusts to 12,210.

Ariane 5 sending 9,500kg to GTO-1500 adjusts to 23,180.

Delta IV Heavy sending 6,000 kg directly to GEO adjusts to 23,640.

Etc…

Do you have a spreadsheet with all this data that others can use? thx

Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #16 on: 12/16/2023 11:03 pm »
Here’s what my dV adjusted YTD totals look like:

1,721,637 kga 🌎 World

1,373,983 kga 🇺🇸 United States
1,325,443 kga 🇺🇸 SpaceX
180,032 kga 🇨🇳 China
97,539 kga 🇷🇺 Russia
40,473 kga 🇺🇸 ULA
36,383 kga 🇪🇺 Ariane & Vega
24,459 kga 🇮🇳 India
7,398 kga 🇯🇵 Japan
738 kga 🇳🇿 RocketLab
373 kga 🇰🇷 South Korea
369 kga 🇰🇵 North Korea
351 kga 🇮🇱 Israel
13 kga 🇮🇷 Iran

While each orbit is calculated individually, here are what the adjustment factors look like for popular orbit insertions:

1.00x 185km x 27d LEO
1.06x 400km x 57d LEO-ISS
1.24x 500km SSO
2.22x GTO-1800
2.42x Molniya
2.44x GTO-1500
2.75x TLI
3.94x Direct GEO


So, Falcon 9 sending 17,250kg of Starlink satellites to 290km x 43d adjusts to 17,986.

Sending a 5,500kg payload to GTO-1800 adjusts to 12,210.

Ariane 5 sending 9,500kg to GTO-1500 adjusts to 23,180.

Delta IV Heavy sending 6,000 kg directly to GEO adjusts to 23,640.

Etc…

Do you have a spreadsheet with all this data that others can use? thx

Yeah, keep in mind it's still very much a WIP
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
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Online Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #17 on: 12/17/2023 12:14 am »
Here’s what my dV adjusted YTD totals look like:

1,721,637 kga 🌎 World

1,373,983 kga 🇺🇸 United States
1,325,443 kga 🇺🇸 SpaceX
180,032 kga 🇨🇳 China
97,539 kga 🇷🇺 Russia
40,473 kga 🇺🇸 ULA
36,383 kga 🇪🇺 Ariane & Vega
24,459 kga 🇮🇳 India
7,398 kga 🇯🇵 Japan
738 kga 🇳🇿 RocketLab
373 kga 🇰🇷 South Korea
369 kga 🇰🇵 North Korea
351 kga 🇮🇱 Israel
13 kga 🇮🇷 Iran
<snip>
Is there a number for Northrop Grumman?

Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #18 on: 12/17/2023 06:33 am »
Here’s what my dV adjusted YTD totals look like:

1,721,637 kga 🌎 World

1,373,983 kga 🇺🇸 United States
1,325,443 kga 🇺🇸 SpaceX
180,032 kga 🇨🇳 China
97,539 kga 🇷🇺 Russia
40,473 kga 🇺🇸 ULA
36,383 kga 🇪🇺 Ariane & Vega
24,459 kga 🇮🇳 India
7,398 kga 🇯🇵 Japan
738 kga 🇳🇿 RocketLab
373 kga 🇰🇷 South Korea
369 kga 🇰🇵 North Korea
351 kga 🇮🇱 Israel
13 kga 🇮🇷 Iran

While each orbit is calculated individually, here are what the adjustment factors look like for popular orbit insertions:

1.00x 185km x 27d LEO
1.06x 400km x 57d LEO-ISS
1.24x 500km SSO
2.22x GTO-1800
2.42x Molniya
2.44x GTO-1500
2.75x TLI
3.94x Direct GEO


So, Falcon 9 sending 17,250kg of Starlink satellites to 290km x 43d adjusts to 17,986.

Sending a 5,500kg payload to GTO-1800 adjusts to 12,210.

Ariane 5 sending 9,500kg to GTO-1500 adjusts to 23,180.

Delta IV Heavy sending 6,000 kg directly to GEO adjusts to 23,640.

Etc…
What are you counting extra in this year. "total launched 1,172,541 kg this year as per this table as of 2023-12-08" as per Wikipedia Starship was payload less. Crew Dragon mass included?? (11 pics for wiki explanation)
« Last Edit: 12/17/2023 06:34 am by Chinakpradhan »

Offline ZachF

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Re: SpaceX record mass to orbit in 2023
« Reply #19 on: 12/17/2023 10:34 am »
Here’s what my dV adjusted YTD totals look like:

1,721,637 kga  World

1,373,983 kga  United States
1,325,443 kga  SpaceX
180,032 kga  China
97,539 kga  Russia
40,473 kga  ULA
36,383 kga  Ariane & Vega
24,459 kga  India
7,398 kga  Japan
738 kga  RocketLab
373 kga  South Korea
369 kga  North Korea
351 kga  Israel
13 kga  Iran

While each orbit is calculated individually, here are what the adjustment factors look like for popular orbit insertions:

1.00x 185km x 27d LEO
1.06x 400km x 57d LEO-ISS
1.24x 500km SSO
2.22x GTO-1800
2.42x Molniya
2.44x GTO-1500
2.75x TLI
3.94x Direct GEO


So, Falcon 9 sending 17,250kg of Starlink satellites to 290km x 43d adjusts to 17,986.

Sending a 5,500kg payload to GTO-1800 adjusts to 12,210.

Ariane 5 sending 9,500kg to GTO-1500 adjusts to 23,180.

Delta IV Heavy sending 6,000 kg directly to GEO adjusts to 23,640.

Etc…
What are you counting extra in this year. "total launched 1,172,541 kg this year as per this table as of 2023-12-08" as per Wikipedia Starship was payload less. Crew Dragon mass included?? (11 pics for wiki explanation)

Those numbers are delta v adjusted numbers. I feel like it’s explained in the thread, but maybe it isn’t.

They are adjusted higher based on the rocket equation using a 320isp hypergolic rocket for orbit raising.

e^(((deltav for delivered orbit) - (delta v for 185km LEO))/3136) x launch mass

It’s the “least unfair” way I’ve found to tally orbit launch activity, because just counting raw tonnage is also unfair to launches that are delivering payloads to higher energies.
« Last Edit: 12/17/2023 10:35 am by ZachF »
artist, so take opinions expressed above with a well-rendered grain of salt...
https://www.instagram.com/artzf/

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