Author Topic: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches  (Read 30152 times)

Online LouScheffer

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3365
  • Liked: 6058
  • Likes Given: 825
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #140 on: 10/26/2023 02:57 am »
The thread is about delaying a Starlink launch until after a NASA launch so that you can say the data is not available, rather than not having the time to review it. You don't use the data either way.

It is not about whether it is worth reviewing it if it is available and you have the time.
You don't use the DETAILED review either way.  But you have plenty of time to review perhaps the most important piece of information - did the rocket place the payload into the intended orbit.

A successful flight is one of the three main requirements for certification.  One of the others, having a "Post Flight Operations/Anomaly Resolution Process" should be knowable in advance.  Only the third element, "NASA Flight Margin Verification" might not be able to complete in time.

Offline steveleach

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2138
  • Liked: 2726
  • Likes Given: 952
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #141 on: 10/26/2023 07:19 am »
The thread is about delaying a Starlink launch until after a NASA launch so that you can say the data is not available, rather than not having the time to review it. You don't use the data either way.

It is not about whether it is worth reviewing it if it is available and you have the time.
You don't use the DETAILED review either way.  But you have plenty of time to review perhaps the most important piece of information - did the rocket place the payload into the intended orbit.

A successful flight is one of the three main requirements for certification.  One of the others, having a "Post Flight Operations/Anomaly Resolution Process" should be knowable in advance.  Only the third element, "NASA Flight Margin Verification" might not be able to complete in time.
I do agree with you, but now you've added an extra decision point, and so an extra beaurocratic process wrapped around that decision point.

My point is that you are no worse off if it launches and you completely ignore it than if you postpone it (from a flight risk perspective). From a career-progression perspective I suspect there's a significant difference.

Online mn

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1008
  • United States
  • Liked: 850
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #142 on: 10/26/2023 04:06 pm »
......
This entire discussion going on in this thread revolves around the fallacy of believing that you might miss an issue that crops up conveniently "only" in the last planned mission before an important NASA mission:
...

I think you have it backwards.

The question of this thread is whether you believe in the fallacy that delaying planned launch n-1 somehow benefits launch n

Edit: removed most of the quote and left only the relevant section I'm responding to.
« Last Edit: 10/26/2023 04:07 pm by mn »

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12080
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18037
  • Likes Given: 12036
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #143 on: 10/27/2023 09:52 am »
......
This entire discussion going on in this thread revolves around the fallacy of believing that you might miss an issue that crops up conveniently "only" in the last planned mission before an important NASA mission:
...

I think you have it backwards.

The question of this thread is whether you believe in the fallacy that delaying planned launch n-1 somehow benefits launch n

Edit: removed most of the quote and left only the relevant section I'm responding to.

Emphasis mine.

NASA clearly believes in that so-called "fallacy". They have now allowed SpaceX to delay planned "launch n-1", to let "launch n" go first, at least three times (Crew-5, Crew-6 and Psyche).
From the viewpoint of NASA "launch n" clearly benefits from delaying planned "launch n-1". Specifically because it allows "launch n" to fly on schedule, instead of running the risk of being delayed while waiting for planned "launch n-1" to actually launch.

There's your "somehow benefits".

Not everything revolves around decreasing risk thru data review/data analysis.

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12080
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18037
  • Likes Given: 12036
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #144 on: 10/27/2023 10:01 am »
But once a rocket has launched many times, and the manufacturer has addressed the potential problems found in prior NASA reviews, it would seem the chance of a NASA review catching something the manufacturer missed would be slight.
That assumes the vehicle and its operations are static, which is not the case with Falcon 9.
That doesn't change the fact that delaying the "less important" launch till after the high value launch only reduces the amount of data the high value launch has to work with.

This is purely and entirely a CYA exercise.

Emphasis mine.

Which is not a bad thing, for two reasons:

- Although there is large commonality between Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, using single-stick Falcon 9 flight data to directly assess the risk of a 3-core FH launch is  questionable. NASA is much more likely to assess Falcon Heavy launch risk by looking at Falcon Heavy flight data.
- But, in the IMO unlikely case that NASA actually uses single-stick Falcon 9 flight data to assess FH launch risk, there is the fact that NASA already is in possession of a literal mountain of Falcon 9 flight data (courtesy of its very high flight rate). One launch less won't make a significant difference to the knowledge that NASA has in hand already.
« Last Edit: 10/27/2023 10:02 am by woods170 »

Online mn

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1008
  • United States
  • Liked: 850
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #145 on: 10/27/2023 10:54 am »
......
This entire discussion going on in this thread revolves around the fallacy of believing that you might miss an issue that crops up conveniently "only" in the last planned mission before an important NASA mission:
...

I think you have it backwards.

The question of this thread is whether you believe in the fallacy that delaying planned launch n-1 somehow benefits launch n

Edit: removed most of the quote and left only the relevant section I'm responding to.

Emphasis mine.

NASA clearly believes in that so-called "fallacy". They have now allowed SpaceX to delay planned "launch n-1", to let "launch n" go first, at least three times (Crew-5, Crew-6 and Psyche).
From the viewpoint of NASA "launch n" clearly benefits from delaying planned "launch n-1". Specifically because it allows "launch n" to fly on schedule, instead of running the risk of being delayed while waiting for planned "launch n-1" to actually launch.

There's your "somehow benefits".

Not everything revolves around decreasing risk thru data review/data analysis.

Whoa you've now completely changed the subject.

It was said that the launch was delayed because if it launches they would be required to review the data and there would not be sufficient time to review, and therefore it is better to delay launch n-1. That is what was claimed and that is what we are discussing. (Whether or not this is true is irrelevant to our discussion, we are just discussing the logic behind such a decision)

THAT is what we're discussing. Only that and nothing else.
« Last Edit: 10/27/2023 11:30 am by mn »

Offline steveleach

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2138
  • Liked: 2726
  • Likes Given: 952
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #146 on: 10/27/2023 12:28 pm »
It was said that the launch was delayed because if it launches they would be required to review the data and there would not be sufficient time to review, and therefore it is better to delay launch n-1. That is what was claimed and that is what we are discussing. (Whether or not this is true is irrelevant to our discussion, we are just discussing the logic behind such a decision)
If its not true then the rest of the discussion is pretty pointless. Is there doubt about whether it is?

Online LouScheffer

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3365
  • Liked: 6058
  • Likes Given: 825
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #147 on: 10/27/2023 12:37 pm »
NASA clearly believes in that so-called "fallacy". They have now allowed SpaceX to delay planned "launch n-1", to let "launch n" go first, at least three times (Crew-5, Crew-6 and Psyche).
From the viewpoint of NASA "launch n" clearly benefits from delaying planned "launch n-1". Specifically because it allows "launch n" to fly on schedule, instead of running the risk of being delayed while waiting for planned "launch n-1" to actually launch.

There's your "somehow benefits".

Not everything revolves around decreasing risk thru data review/data analysis.
This makes sense, but only if the rockets are launching from the same pad.  Then if launch N-1 gets delayed for any reason (technical problems, weather, etc) it eats into the margins of the more important launch N.  Even worse, if it damages the pad,  launch N might miss the window entirely.  In this case, and in this case only (IMO) delaying launch N-1 makes sense.

But if they are launching from separate pads, this seems like a case of "go fever" combined with CYA.  Imagine a crew launch sitting on the pad at the Cape.  A day earlier, there is a Starlink launch at Vandenburg, and that Falcon-9 blows up in flight.  The crew launch would surely be delayed, and rightly so.   But if the launch succeeds, NASA will be faced with a PR problem.  If they keep to the crew launch schedule, they will be accused of "go fever", waiving their own flight rules to keep the schedule.  If, god forbid, the crew launch fails, they will be accused of not looking at all available evidence.  Both of these PR problems are avoided by delaying launch N-1, at the risk of not detecting a possible error.

This problem is entirely of NASA's own making.  They have a set of rules that made perfect sense in the days of infrequent launches from non-redundant pads.  With technical advances, they are now making counter-productive decisions based on not violating their own rules.  The correct solution, I believe, is to change their rules to adapt to modern flight rates.


Offline meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14107
  • N. California
  • Liked: 13974
  • Likes Given: 1389
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #148 on: 10/27/2023 01:18 pm »
But once a rocket has launched many times, and the manufacturer has addressed the potential problems found in prior NASA reviews, it would seem the chance of a NASA review catching something the manufacturer missed would be slight.
That assumes the vehicle and its operations are static, which is not the case with Falcon 9.
That doesn't change the fact that delaying the "less important" launch till after the high value launch only reduces the amount of data the high value launch has to work with.

This is purely and entirely a CYA exercise.

Emphasis mine.

Which is not a bad thing, for two reasons:

- Although there is large commonality between Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, using single-stick Falcon 9 flight data to directly assess the risk of a 3-core FH launch is  questionable. NASA is much more likely to assess Falcon Heavy launch risk by looking at Falcon Heavy flight data.
- But, in the IMO unlikely case that NASA actually uses single-stick Falcon 9 flight data to assess FH launch risk, there is the fact that NASA already is in possession of a literal mountain of Falcon 9 flight data (courtesy of its very high flight rate). One launch less won't make a significant difference to the knowledge that NASA has in hand already.
They can always choose to not look...  or in other words, if they're not using the data, why dalay the F9 launch?

This makes no sense.

And to your basic point:

If a Merlin fails, do you really think they'll ignore it since it's mounted to a different vehicle?

The side cores are practically the same, the center core is almost the same, the second stage also.

Basically all failure modes of F9 are present in an FH.  (Plus a bunch of new ones)

The more odd rationales I hear, the more it's obvious that this is, and always was, CYA.  (Not the data analysis, the delay of flight N-1)
« Last Edit: 10/27/2023 03:32 pm by meekGee »
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Online mn

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1008
  • United States
  • Liked: 850
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #149 on: 10/27/2023 02:30 pm »
It was said that the launch was delayed because if it launches they would be required to review the data and there would not be sufficient time to review, and therefore it is better to delay launch n-1. That is what was claimed and that is what we are discussing. (Whether or not this is true is irrelevant to our discussion, we are just discussing the logic behind such a decision)
If its not true then the rest of the discussion is pretty pointless. Is there doubt about whether it is?

Someone either in this thread or some other thread claimed that it was a SpaceX decision to delay and not NASA, sorry can't find that post right now.

But if it's not true then it's just a hypothetical discussion, we've had plenty of those around here.

Edit to add: Here is the source of the delay and reason given. Whatever this other poster posted somewhere that I can't find is apparently not correct.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50260.msg2530831#msg2530831
« Last Edit: 10/27/2023 02:36 pm by mn »

Offline dondar

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 433
  • the Netherlands
  • Liked: 297
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #150 on: 10/27/2023 04:12 pm »

The only practical reason for NASA review delay (i.e. extra work) is some out of family event during (one of) previous Falcon launch, which SpaceX team has to process and to wrap some "satisfactory story" for NASA review committee.

No, NASA does the data review.
lol, they review reports prepared by SpaceX. Both sides said a number of times the that review is two side process and is a learning experience for both sides. Both sides. They did already more than 10 such reviews (close to 15?) . One has to be specially challenged to claim that they don't have  a clear idea about time, processes and that there can be something "special", The only possible reason for the delay is obvious and I already mentioned it. The only possible reason for delay for Starlink flights is also obvious and I already mentioned it. NASA has no say about other SpaceX flights.  The only external action can come from Air Force, who could indeed ground Falcon 9 if it would be deemed unsaved to launch.
This story about "latest flight" requirement can be easily disproved and I already mentioned the evidence.

dude. why? You write rather normal posts about NASA etc. every time SpaceX pops you go bananas. Why?

Offline dondar

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 433
  • the Netherlands
  • Liked: 297
  • Likes Given: 256
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #151 on: 10/27/2023 04:17 pm »
......
This entire discussion going on in this thread revolves around the fallacy of believing that you might miss an issue that crops up conveniently "only" in the last planned mission before an important NASA mission:
...

I think you have it backwards.

The question of this thread is whether you believe in the fallacy that delaying planned launch n-1 somehow benefits launch n

Edit: removed most of the quote and left only the relevant section I'm responding to.

Emphasis mine.

NASA clearly believes in that so-called "fallacy". They have now allowed SpaceX to delay planned "launch n-1", to let "launch n" go first, at least three times (Crew-5, Crew-6 and Psyche).
From the viewpoint of NASA "launch n" clearly benefits from delaying planned "launch n-1". Specifically because it allows "launch n" to fly on schedule, instead of running the risk of being delayed while waiting for planned "launch n-1" to actually launch.

There's your "somehow benefits".

Not everything revolves around decreasing risk thru data review/data analysis.
what is the size of Falcon 9 group in SpaceX? 10% of the initial size? 20%?
they are squeezed by NASA reviews  up and don't have spare eyes for the rest. You see typical "test" crunch. The mere idea about NASA controlling SpaceX flights in general is beyond bizarre. They can ask, but why?

Online DanClemmensen

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5318
  • Earth (currently)
  • Liked: 4156
  • Likes Given: 1672
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #152 on: 10/27/2023 04:36 pm »
Without debating the merits of a review, can we all agree that the following statement is true?
   IF (NASA mandates a review of any F9/FH mission prior to the NASA mission
         AND reviews take a known potential maximum time window
        )
     THEN
        SpaceX cannot schedule any F9/FH missions in that time window prior to the scheduled NASA mission.

Online mn

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 1008
  • United States
  • Liked: 850
  • Likes Given: 318
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #153 on: 10/27/2023 04:48 pm »
Without debating the merits of a review, can we all agree that the following statement is true?
   IF (NASA mandates a review of any F9/FH mission prior to the NASA mission
         AND reviews take a known potential maximum time window
        )
     THEN
        SpaceX cannot schedule any F9/FH missions in that time window prior to the scheduled NASA mission.

Obviously that is true.

But just to nitpick "known potential maximum time window" includes the possibility of an anomaly requiring an x month review process, so SpaceX cannot schedule anything within x months of that NASA mission ;)

Offline Jim

  • Night Gator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 37390
  • Cape Canaveral Spaceport
  • Liked: 21322
  • Likes Given: 428
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #154 on: 10/27/2023 06:38 pm »
lol, they review reports prepared by SpaceX. .....

wrong.  NASA does independent data reviews of all launches of vehicles it has under contract


NASA has no say about other SpaceX flights. 

That's what you think.  NASA has ways to apply leverage.

Quote from: dondar link=topic=59679.msg2535266#msg2535266 date=1698423170)

dude. why? You write rather normal posts about NASA etc. every time SpaceX pops you go bananas. Why?

To counter unsubstantiated posts like the ones you make
« Last Edit: 10/27/2023 06:42 pm by Jim »

Offline Jim

  • Night Gator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 37390
  • Cape Canaveral Spaceport
  • Liked: 21322
  • Likes Given: 428
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #155 on: 10/27/2023 06:43 pm »
what is the size of Falcon 9 group in SpaceX? 10% of the initial size? 20%?
they are squeezed by NASA reviews  up and don't have spare eyes for the rest. You see typical "test" crunch. The mere idea about NASA controlling SpaceX flights in general is beyond bizarre. They can ask, but why?

This is so wrong.  NASA postflight data reviews have no impact on SpaceX manpower.
« Last Edit: 10/27/2023 06:44 pm by Jim »

Offline woods170

  • IRAS fan
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 12080
  • IRAS fan
  • The Netherlands
  • Liked: 18037
  • Likes Given: 12036
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #156 on: 10/29/2023 06:11 pm »
It was said that the launch was delayed because if it launches they would be required to review the data and there would not be sufficient time to review, and therefore it is better to delay launch n-1. That is what was claimed and that is what we are discussing. (Whether or not this is true is irrelevant to our discussion, we are just discussing the logic behind such a decision)
If its not true then the rest of the discussion is pretty pointless. Is there doubt about whether it is?

Someone either in this thread or some other thread claimed that it was a SpaceX decision to delay and not NASA, sorry can't find that post right now.

But if it's not true then it's just a hypothetical discussion, we've had plenty of those around here.

Edit to add: Here is the source of the delay and reason given. Whatever this other poster posted somewhere that I can't find is apparently not correct.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50260.msg2530831#msg2530831

Delaying Starlink missions in favour of NASA missions has so far always been SpaceX decisions. At least one time such decision was made by SpaceX after a request from NASA. Not an order, but a request.
« Last Edit: 10/29/2023 06:15 pm by woods170 »

Offline steveleach

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2138
  • Liked: 2726
  • Likes Given: 952
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #157 on: 10/29/2023 10:20 pm »
It was said that the launch was delayed because if it launches they would be required to review the data and there would not be sufficient time to review, and therefore it is better to delay launch n-1. That is what was claimed and that is what we are discussing. (Whether or not this is true is irrelevant to our discussion, we are just discussing the logic behind such a decision)
If its not true then the rest of the discussion is pretty pointless. Is there doubt about whether it is?

Someone either in this thread or some other thread claimed that it was a SpaceX decision to delay and not NASA, sorry can't find that post right now.

But if it's not true then it's just a hypothetical discussion, we've had plenty of those around here.

Edit to add: Here is the source of the delay and reason given. Whatever this other poster posted somewhere that I can't find is apparently not correct.

https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=50260.msg2530831#msg2530831

Delaying Starlink missions in favour of NASA missions has so far always been SpaceX decisions. At least one time such decision was made by SpaceX after a request from NASA. Not an order, but a request.

Quote
Also data review of previous F9 launches by LSP must be complete before proceeding with Psyche launch. This includes Starlink 7-4.  Also, LSP asked for the Starlink 6-22 launch delay after weather scrub on October 9, until after Psyche, due to the same post launch analysis reason.
Yep, assuming LSP = "Launch Service Provider", it seems like a SpaceX decision.  But if LSP asks for delay because otherwise they can't comply with a rule, that doesn't mean the rule is a sensible one.

Regardless, the premise of this thread doesn't change depending on who makes specific decisions, just on what those decisions are.

Offline RedLineTrain

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2411
  • Liked: 2372
  • Likes Given: 10137
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #158 on: 10/30/2023 05:38 pm »
Yep, assuming LSP = "Launch Service Provider", it seems like a SpaceX decision.

LSP = NASA's Launch Services Program.

Offline steveleach

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2138
  • Liked: 2726
  • Likes Given: 952
Re: Discussion of NASA data review delaying SpaceX launches
« Reply #159 on: 10/30/2023 07:51 pm »
Yep, assuming LSP = "Launch Service Provider", it seems like a SpaceX decision.

LSP = NASA's Launch Services Program.
Hmmm.... so it was NASA that requested the delays then?

Too much conflicting information here, but maybe I'm just misunderstanding it all.

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
1