Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year  (Read 177871 times)

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #680 on: 12/03/2023 04:26 am »
I'm estimating about 102 launches (101.78) by end of 2023 including Starship, based on my usual exponential model. Edit: this is wrong. I accidentally added an extra flight in December. Should be one launch lower.
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 03:01 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline catdlr

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #681 on: 12/03/2023 05:05 am »
I'm estimating about 102 launches (101.78) by end of 2023 including Starship, based on my usual exponential model.

I'm hoping too but the next three launches have been delayed each one day and that throws other launch schedules in flux.  Hope for good weather.
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Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #682 on: 12/03/2023 05:20 pm »
I'm estimating about 102 launches (101.78) by end of 2023 including Starship, based on my usual exponential model.

And my extrapolation, which adds to the year to date launches (91 including IFTs) a the number of days between the last launch and the end of the year (29.1) divided by the average interval of the last ten launches (2.5 days, a rate of 146/year) has just rounded up to 103. (decimal places hidden, 100 if IFTs omitted and number truncated instead of being rounded.)
YMMV for each of these numbers, as well as the goal.
So:
YTD   Days   Int.   Ext
 91     29     2.5    103
« Last Edit: 12/03/2023 05:21 pm by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline steveleach

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #683 on: 12/04/2023 04:19 pm »
While this is obviously not definitive by any means, the list on Wikipedia suggests that they could be up to 7 launches for the month by the 14th December.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#Future_launches

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #684 on: 12/04/2023 04:25 pm »
While this is obviously not definitive by any means, the list on Wikipedia suggests that they could be up to 7 launches for the month by the 14th December.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon_Heavy_launches#Future_launches
:) The list does not include yet-to-be-announced Starlink flights. If there were no non-Starlink flights, SpaceX could almost certainly make the 100 number. Its really a list of things that might interfere with Starlink flights.  :)

Online abaddon

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #685 on: 12/04/2023 05:56 pm »
Vulcan might end up being the deciding factor here, ironically.  Current dates available for its inaugural launch are the 24t through the 26th after which it would have to wait until January for the next window.  I would expect for the debut of a new launcher we'd see more time on-pad then we do for normal launches, and I would think this could impact SpaceX launching from LC40?  Happy to be corrected if this isn't a consideration.

Offline EnigmaSCADA

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #686 on: 12/06/2023 01:28 am »
Whatever the number ends up being, i just shutter to think about the alternative reality without SpaceX - NASA just doing its slow thing that's constantly being cancelled/restarted/meddled with by senators and ULA doing its thing of capturing billions of public treasure doing nothing but launching a single hand's worth of multi billion dollar DoD sats and paying Vlady P. for the privilege of it. We the people, are living a dream that was inconceivable 10 short years ago!

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #687 on: 12/06/2023 01:38 am »
Whatever the number ends up being, i just shutter to think about the alternative reality without SpaceX - NASA just doing its slow thing that's constantly being cancelled/restarted/meddled with by senators and ULA doing its thing of capturing billions of public treasure doing nothing but launching a single hand's worth of multi billion dollar DoD sats and paying Vlady P. for the privilege of it. We the people, are living a dream that was inconceivable 10 short years ago!
But hey, NASA would almost have a way to send astronauts to ISS by now!

Offline EnigmaSCADA

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #688 on: 12/06/2023 01:49 am »
Whatever the number ends up being, i just shutter to think about the alternative reality without SpaceX - NASA just doing its slow thing that's constantly being cancelled/restarted/meddled with by senators and ULA doing its thing of capturing billions of public treasure doing nothing but launching a single hand's worth of multi billion dollar DoD sats and paying Vlady P. for the privilege of it. We the people, are living a dream that was inconceivable 10 short years ago!
I want to add that I actually believe now (definitely not pre-Falcon 9) that I'll live to see a moon and/or mars, MANNED, landing. See, i was born in a cursed time where that had already happened before but looked to never happen again while I roamed the earth. That said, any Cold War 2.0 is sure to up the ante with or without SpaceX, but I really like my chances these days even before just a little pinch of CW2.0.

Online Galactic Penguin SST

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #689 on: 12/06/2023 02:11 am »
Anyway let's put down the rest of the schedule in December 2023 here, now that we have 89 F9/FH and 91 total launches so far in 2023:

Starlink Group 6-33 - December 7, 04:01 UTC (Cape SLC-40)
Starlink Group 7-8 - December 8, ~08:00 UTC (Vandenberg SLC-4E)
USSF-52 (FH) - December 11, early UTC (KSC LC-39A)
Starlink Group 6-34 - December 11, ~04:00 UTC (Cape SLC-40)
Ovzon-3 - December 14, ~21:00 UTC (Cape SLC-40)

That adds up to 94/96.
SLC-39A is unlikely to handle any more this year with Intuitive Machines IM-1 requiring to use it on January 12.
LC-40 seems to be constrained at 4 days intervals (mainly due to ASDS requirements and the occasional weather/launcher/satellite hiccups).
SLC-4E is inconsistent with some 8 days intervals, but a larger proportion of 12-14 days ones over this summer-fall.

So IF all future launches in mid-late December are Starlinks (looks likely to me with USSF-124 apparently slipping into February and Worldview Legion/SARah being very long shots with no news of these payloads arriving at Vandenberg), we might see launches scheduled like this:

SLC-40: December 18/22/26/30 or 19/23/27/31
SLC-4E: December 16/29 or 21/29

That would add up to 100 F9/FHs. But everything has to go right including weather, launcher availability etc.

Bottom line: 100 F9/FH/SS is somewhat more comfortable, 100 F9/FHs might be possible but it will be down to the wire.

The counts above does not include the possibility of Starship flight 3 occurring before end of year, but this one is an extremely long shot anyway.
« Last Edit: 12/06/2023 02:12 am by Galactic Penguin SST »
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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #690 on: 12/07/2023 07:53 am »
Count is now 90/92 with 24 days left of 2023.

BTW regarding the down-to-wire part - AFAIK at least 3 different SpaceX launches have once been marked as planning on December 31st some time during the weeks prior to launch. None of them ultimately flew on that day (all ended up in early January) but the intent has been there since way back 10 years ago with their 3rd Falcon 9 v1.1 (8th in total)!

2013 - F9 v1.1/Thaicom-6 (flew January 6, 2014)

2019 - F9 B5/Starlink v1.0 L2 (flew January 7, 2020)

2020 - F9 B5/Turksat 5A (flew January 8, 2021)

BTW there's only one each of launches to orbit in history that happened on December 31 or January 1 - the former is a Long March 3A from China in 2014 (very early UTC), while the later actually went out of the Cape straddling 1989/1990 with the 1st of only 4 Commercial Titan 3s flew out 7 minutes after midnight UTC (7:07 pm EST, December 31 1989) after multiple scrubs!
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Offline M.E.T.

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Online eriblo

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #692 on: 12/07/2023 09:11 am »
Count is now 90/92 with 24 days left of 2023.


It is confirmed as 90.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1732671139862753644?s=46&t=eQrUtTJk6IAt4GyTzH7J2w
I think the original "100 flights" tweet is still up to your preferred interpretation:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

Elon is really good at tweets that at first look like definitive confirmation of things but actually lack essential details and are thus ambiguous.

The "100 flights" was in reply to Bergers tweet that mentioned "39th rocket", "Falcon 9 every 6.2 days" and "100 orbital flights next year". Completely consistent interpretations:

- 100 [rocket] flights (orbital/suborbital, all vehicles).
- 100 [F9] flights (the only FH flight in 2022 was after the tweet).
- 100 [F9+FH] flights (popular interpretation but would be the largest logical leap if only the provided information was considered).
- 100 [orbital] flights (likely all vehicles, Elon seem to consider Starship test flights as orbital enough).

The "90th flight" is in response to a tweet specifically about a F9 launch and refers to F9+FH. The tweet from 15 months ago could have the same criteria but it has still not been clarified.
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 09:19 am by eriblo »

Offline geza

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #693 on: 12/07/2023 09:49 am »
The Wikipedia list of Facon launches enlists 7 expected launches for the rest of 2023. Four of them have specific date for the first half of December. In this vein the another 3 for the second half is realistic. Then, we should count the 2 Starship launches to reach 99. Given that it does not matter, why not count, as such? :)

Offline AmigaClone

Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #694 on: 12/07/2023 10:45 am »
The Wikipedia list of Falcon launches enlists 7 expected launches for the rest of 2023. Four of them have specific date for the first half of December. In this vein the another 3 for the second half is realistic. Then, we should count the 2 Starship launches to reach 99. Given that it does not matter, why not count, as such? :)

I would not be surprised if at least one of the planned non-Starlink missions between now and the end of the year was replaced by a Starlink one.

Offline Zed_Noir

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #695 on: 12/07/2023 10:49 am »
The Wikipedia list of Facon launches enlists 7 expected launches for the rest of 2023. Four of them have specific date for the first half of December. In this vein the another 3 for the second half is realistic. Then, we should count the 2 Starship launches to reach 99. Given that it does not matter, why not count, as such? :)
Don't think Wikipedia listed all possible upcoming Starlink flights in their listing. Especially when SpaceX itself have no definite manifest for Starlink launches.

After the Ovzon 3 launch, which should be the 94th F9/FH launch of the year on December 14th. There could be up to 3 launches from Vandenberg with customers' payloads or Starlinks. As well as up to 4 possible Starlink launches from pad SLC-40 at Canaveral on 4 day pad turn around time. So there is a possibility of 100 orbital launches for SpaceX in 2023.


Offline steveleach

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #696 on: 12/07/2023 02:36 pm »
Yeah, if they manage 11 or 12 Falcon flights in December then those 2 Starship launches will be the difference between reaching 100 or falling just short. At that point it will likely become a topic of intense debate with much wailing and gnashing of teeth, Elon's character being maligned and defended, and moderators being overwhelmed with thread trimming.

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #697 on: 12/07/2023 02:50 pm »
The thread title is SpaceX. Elon’s projection was about SpaceX (and was low precision anyway).
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #698 on: 12/07/2023 03:00 pm »
Count is now 90/92 with 24 days left of 2023.


It is confirmed as 90.

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1732671139862753644?s=46&t=eQrUtTJk6IAt4GyTzH7J2w
Context was Falcon in the quote tweet. Valiant effort, however.
« Last Edit: 12/07/2023 03:24 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline alugobi

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #699 on: 12/07/2023 04:01 pm »
"90th flight."  This is why I concurred with meekGee's post earlier, and unincluded the Starship launch from April.

 

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