Author Topic: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year  (Read 177315 times)

Offline xyv

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SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« on: 02/07/2023 02:10 am »
Alright, I have changed the thread title to descibe what I am doing here.  I thought it would be fun to track how SpaceX is doing against it's asperational goal of 100 launches this year and threw together a quick plot.  If this is interesting to people, I will periodically repost the graphic.  I can provide the spreadsheet but it is seriously stupidly simple.  I'm going to update it anyway for my amusement.

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

8 Feb:  This post has been updated to reflect the new title and to incorporate a couple of comments into the graph presentaion.  Gridlines now fall on week boundaries  - still can't make Excel do what I want with labels.

End of February.  New format with 2022 for comparison and I will start attaching the current excel sheet.

Updated for end of March.

And F9H is pushed to the end of the launch window and out of the UTC month.  Updated for April.

Updated for May; closer to the '100' line this month.

First half of the year

Updated for July; not much change in slope.

Update for August, as always current version of spread sheet.

3/4 of the year gone and 6 shy of 75.  Record month and signs of a continued uptick in projected end-of-year total.

October update.  Increased launch rate shows visually now.

Only one month left and looking like mid to high 90's for the finish.

And that's it. 96 it is, and SpaceX shows no letup at all in pushing the pace.

Mark
(xyv)
« Last Edit: 12/31/2023 09:05 pm by xyv »

Offline tgr9898

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #1 on: 02/07/2023 02:18 am »
I think it would be fun to watch their progress this way through the year...


 but I think you should change the title to something less click-baity

Online goretexguy

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #2 on: 02/07/2023 02:29 am »
Suggested new title: "SpaceX Launch Rate OKR: Launches vs Aspirations"

Offline Comga

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #3 on: 02/07/2023 02:45 am »
Ok, falls behind their own rediculously ambitious goal of 100 falcon 9 launches this year.  I thought it would be fun to track it and through together a quick plot.  If this is interesting to people, I will periodically repost the graphic.  I can provide the spreadsheet but it is seriously stupidly simple.  I'm going to update it anyway for my amusement.

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

Mods, if this is too lame well...you have the power and discresion.

Mark
(xyv)

Another "Mark", Mark Twain said "Liars, damned liars, and statistics"

Your graph extrapolates from a very meager base of data, from a very small sampling.
It's not so much lame as it is premature.
It never pays to extrapolate by an order of magnitude, and we are only a smidgeon over one tenth of the year.
What happens if we look at a bit more of the track record than five weeks?
The attached graph measures the launch pace in two ways.
One is the number of launches in the preceding year (365 days).
This looks like it has gotten stuck just over 60 per year.
The other averages the last ten launches.
This is up to around 90 per year.
But even extrapolating this isn't very sophisticated.
That rate has been rising, sometimes dramatically.
Some day it will saturate, but maybe not this week.
100 this year remains a stretch goal, but ruling it out now is at least premature.
So let's give them some time.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2023 02:53 am by Comga »
What kind of wastrels would dump a perfectly good booster in the ocean after just one use?

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #4 on: 02/07/2023 03:11 am »
Your graph extrapolates from a very meager base of data, from a very small sampling.
No. the graph is doing what it intends to do. It does not extrapolate anything. The blue line is Elon's stated goal of 100 launches/yr, and the red dots are the actual rate based on actual launches. The result is a very simple tracking of actual against goal. Any extrapolation is in the mind of the beholder.

I think this graph is a great idea.

The alternate graphs are better for understanding the actual rate as it changes, but not as good for tracking against Elon's stated goal.
« Last Edit: 02/07/2023 03:14 am by DanClemmensen »

Offline xyv

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #5 on: 02/07/2023 03:26 am »
Yup. What Dan said. No statistics or extrapolation involved.  This is score keeping.  And Comga, that is my favorite Mark. 

Offline seb21051

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #6 on: 02/07/2023 02:32 pm »
The graph might be more informative and complete if you included separate lines labeled aspirational/real launches for the previous few years, to give context.

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #7 on: 02/07/2023 03:01 pm »
The graph might be more informative and complete if you included separate lines labeled aspirational/real launches for the previous few years, to give context.
My vote is to keep xyv's graph the way it is.

You should feel free to create the graph you want and add it to this thread or to another thread.

Offline alugobi

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #8 on: 02/07/2023 04:15 pm »
Two things to improve this thread:

1.  Unless your intention all along is to demonstrate that SX won't meet this aspirational goal, rename it to something germane. 

2.  Get the mods to make it a sticky, so that it isn't bunched in with general topics all year long. 

Online freddo411

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #9 on: 02/07/2023 05:45 pm »
Ok, falls behind their own rediculously ambitious goal of 100 falcon 9 launches this year.  I thought it would be fun to track it and through together a quick plot.  If this is interesting to people, I will periodically repost the graphic.  I can provide the spreadsheet but it is seriously stupidly simple.  I'm going to update it anyway for my amusement.

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.

Mods, if this is too lame well...you have the power and discresion.

Mark
(xyv)


This graph is great.   

The thread title is not great.   I agree with the valid criticisms above.

Excited to see the progress (of SX) and this graph during the year.

Online mandrewa

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #10 on: 02/07/2023 05:52 pm »
Here's Elon Musk's tweet in context:

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1564994769826172929

I think you've moved the goalpost xyv.  Starship launches should be included.

The graph is scaled for 100 launches across 2023; UTC is used for the date and both Falcon 9 and Heavy are counted but not Starship.
(xyv)

Online LouScheffer

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Re: SpaceX falls behind
« Reply #11 on: 02/07/2023 06:00 pm »
Overall, it's a fine plot of plan vs actual. My suggestions would be:

(a) Label the diagonal line as "Pace of 100 flights/year" or similar.
(b) Label the vertical axis is "Cumulative flights in 2023".
(c) Fix the endpoint of the diagonal line.  It should reach 100 at 23:59 on December 31.  Looks like it's off by a day or so.


Offline xyv

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #12 on: 02/08/2023 01:28 am »
Ok I changed the title.  Agreed it was a bit click baity but I like me some snark.  I will add some embelleshment to the graph.  It does end on Dec 31 but getting my old copy of Excel to label the axis the way I want is a challenge.

Offline Reynold

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #13 on: 02/21/2023 07:59 pm »
Apparently the FAA only thinks they will only need to license a total of 92 launches PLUS reentries in 2023 (see graph).  That said, this article points out they have been underestimating the last few years.  :)

https://spacenews.com/faa-forecasts-surging-commercial-launch-activity/

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #14 on: 02/21/2023 08:58 pm »
I thought they’d do 37 launches last year, but they did 61. They’re currently on pace for like 80-85 launches per year, but as they are improving over time, that’s likely an underestimate. Linear extrapolations from the beginning part of an exponential curve will undercount.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2023 09:27 pm by Robotbeat »
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Offline wannamoonbase

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #15 on: 02/21/2023 09:32 pm »
I thought they’d do 37 launches last year, but they did 61. They’re currently on pace for like 80-85 launches per year, but as they are improving over time, that’s likely an underestimate. Linear extrapolations from the beginning part of an exponential curve will undercount.

Like my GPA in college, if you fall behind the required average early on it gets harder to make up.  While we can expect them to gain some efficiencies, the cycle time of the ASDS's, weather, range and payload delays, I think 100 will be very hard, not impossible, to meet.

They'll need some RTLS or expendable flights to help out and as many Vandy launches as possible.

Myself, I'm predicting 85-90 flights total for the calendar year.
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #16 on: 02/21/2023 09:48 pm »
I thought they’d do 37 launches last year, but they did 61. They’re currently on pace for like 80-85 launches per year, but as they are improving over time, that’s likely an underestimate. Linear extrapolations from the beginning part of an exponential curve will undercount.

Like my GPA in college, if you fall behind the required average early on it gets harder to make up. …
This doesn’t make sense when applied to an exponential curve (say, an assumption they’ll grow capacity at 60% per year). Your previous year is always going to be less and, if the function is smooth, early months in the year will always have fewer launches than later months.

For an exponential function like that, an annualized rate of 85 launches per year for the first month and a half is actually ahead of schedule.

EDIT: I just did a curve fit to an exponential function with assumption they’d get 100 launches this year and got 61 launches last year. It has been 52 days into 2023, and they should’ve gotten 11.4 launches so far to keep on pace. They’ve gotten 12.

So they’re right on track if you assume a steady progression of capability. Not behind one iota. If the next launch occurs on time on February 23rd, they’ll be ahead by about one launch.
« Last Edit: 02/21/2023 10:12 pm by Robotbeat »
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To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline Robotbeat

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #17 on: 02/21/2023 10:18 pm »
Falcon Heavy is ramping up. Starship is ramping up. I think there’s good reason to think SpaceX will be able to maintain their launch growth rate this year.
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline DanClemmensen

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #18 on: 02/22/2023 12:14 am »
Falcon Heavy is ramping up. Starship is ramping up. I think there’s good reason to think SpaceX will be able to maintain their launch growth rate this year.
I take it as given that SpaceX can be ready to launch 100 or more times this year: I see no lack of LVs ready to go. However, I don't think they will necessarily have 100 launch opportunities., because of scheduling on the Eastern Range and weather at launch and recovery sites.

Offline meekGee

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Re: SpaceX progress towards a 100 launch year
« Reply #19 on: 02/22/2023 02:23 am »
I thought they’d do 37 launches last year, but they did 61. They’re currently on pace for like 80-85 launches per year, but as they are improving over time, that’s likely an underestimate. Linear extrapolations from the beginning part of an exponential curve will undercount.

Like my GPA in college, if you fall behind the required average early on it gets harder to make up.  While we can expect them to gain some efficiencies, the cycle time of the ASDS's, weather, range and payload delays, I think 100 will be very hard, not impossible, to meet.

They'll need some RTLS or expendable flights to help out and as many Vandy launches as possible.

Myself, I'm predicting 85-90 flights total for the calendar year.
I suspect your GPA wasn't exponential...
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

 

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