Author Topic: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker  (Read 100212 times)

Offline go2mars

  • Member
  • Posts: 62
  • Calgary
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #140 on: 02/06/2023 04:01 am »
I bet starship lands on the moon by the end of 2025.
If it does, you send me a space-themed T-shirt, ideally involving crass humour.

If you win, I owe you a case of beer or equivalent value something else.

First 3 takers before June 2022. Any takers?

Offline Zed_Noir

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5432
  • Canada
  • Liked: 1794
  • Likes Given: 1292
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #141 on: 02/06/2023 07:10 pm »
....
First 3 takers before June 2022. Any takers?
You meant before June 2023?  ;)

Offline su27k

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 6414
  • Liked: 9097
  • Likes Given: 885
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #142 on: 02/07/2023 02:52 am »
Pretty crazy how people underestimate SpaceX in the long term. 8 years ago there're still doubts whether SpaceX can launch 24/48 times annually by 2024/2025, yet here we're, seeing them launched 61 times in 2022 and gunning for 100 launches in 2023.

I wish mods would bring back the thread for optimistic SpaceX outlook, that's a great example of "People tend to overestimate what can be done in one year and to underestimate what can be done in five or ten years."

Offline 2megs

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 165
  • Liked: 382
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #143 on: 02/25/2023 11:49 am »
I bet starship lands on the moon by the end of 2025.
If it does, you send me a space-themed T-shirt, ideally involving crass humour.

If you win, I owe you a case of beer or equivalent value something else.

First 3 takers before June 2022. Any takers?

I'll take the other side of this bet, with a couple of definitions:



"Starship..." is a complete self-contained 9m stainless steel vehicle with methalox engines, comprising the entirety of dry mass launched directly atop a single SH booster. Anything involving kick stages, descent vehicles, or in-orbit (dis)assembly isn't "Starship" as understood today.

"...lands on the moon" intact, upright, and stable. Nothing about the landing itself would preclude a healthy crew from conducting a 7-day mission and then flying the entire vehicle back to NRHO. (Although it needn't actually carry a crew, a cabin, or liftoff fuel.)



My thought is those definitions force an orbital fuel depot, which requires a rapid launch cadence to top off and then transfer fuel before boiloff, which requires mastering reuse of both stages, which is going to require some downtime after every unsuccessful attempt on the road to mastery. Think of the "How Not to Land an Orbital Rocket Booster" video, except the role of cheap offshore barge is played by an expensive launch site.

They'll get there, but my bet is it takes more than 34 months. I'll cheer right along with you if I'm wrong, but if I'm right I'll at least get to drown my sorrows in someone else's beer.  ;D


Offline dcporter

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 881
  • Liked: 266
  • Likes Given: 421
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #144 on: 03/22/2023 02:01 am »
Watch for the plot twist where Starship goes big next year and cannibalizes all but 47 reused F9s. 

Also—there's no beer I want 24 of at a time any more

Offline 2megs

  • Full Member
  • *
  • Posts: 165
  • Liked: 382
  • Likes Given: 64
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #145 on: 03/25/2023 03:02 am »
Watch for the plot twist where Starship goes big next year and cannibalizes all but 47 reused F9s. 

Counterintuitively, I'm counting on it. HLS requires a topped-up depot, which requires a salvo of tankers, which requires full and rapid reuse, which requires reliably launching in the first place. Somewhere along the line from consistently launching to consistently landing, there are a lot of Starlinks that will ride up on Starships that aren't necessarily coming down in one piece.

I think they get there eventually; I just think that chain of prerequisites adds up to more than (now only) 33 months of real non-Elon time.

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39255
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25206
  • Likes Given: 12104
« Last Edit: 11/22/2023 05:12 pm by Robotbeat »
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Online wannamoonbase

  • Elite Veteran
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5379
  • Denver, CO
    • U.S. Metric Association
  • Liked: 3085
  • Likes Given: 3818
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #147 on: 11/22/2023 05:28 pm »
https://twitter.com/robotbeat/status/1727388030355530038?s=46

I bet booster recovery before end of Q3 2024 and ship recovery by end of Q1 2025

I don’t think people appreciate how much of a multiplier booster recovery is going to be. 

Once they don’t have to build 1 booster for each ship the development/flight pace will be significant
Wildly optimistic prediction, Superheavy recovery on IFT-4 or IFT-5

Offline Elmar Moelzer

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3660
  • Liked: 849
  • Likes Given: 1058
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #148 on: 12/29/2023 04:08 am »
For Chris/Robotbeat. It is not SpaceX related, but I hereby open a "beer" - bet that Helion will produce net electricity from fusion before the end of 2025. If I lose, you get a drink from me. If I win, I will buy a bottle of port or two for us to cheer with together. My treat, but you have to come for a visit to Michigan!
Deal?
« Last Edit: 12/29/2023 04:09 am by Elmar Moelzer »

Offline Robotbeat

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 39255
  • Minnesota
  • Liked: 25206
  • Likes Given: 12104
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #149 on: 01/01/2024 10:40 pm »
For Chris/Robotbeat. It is not SpaceX related, but I hereby open a "beer" - bet that Helion will produce net electricity from fusion before the end of 2025. If I lose, you get a drink from me. If I win, I will buy a bottle of port or two for us to cheer with together. My treat, but you have to come for a visit to Michigan!
Deal?
Deal. I will only modify that if either of us is nearby each other, we can pay up. Additionally, value of bet not to exceed $20!

I usually go to Michigan once or twice a year, so this should be doable!
Chris  Whoever loves correction loves knowledge, but he who hates reproof is stupid.

To the maximum extent practicable, the Federal Government shall plan missions to accommodate the space transportation services capabilities of United States commercial providers. US law http://goo.gl/YZYNt0

Offline rsdavis9

Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #150 on: 01/02/2024 01:41 pm »
For Chris/Robotbeat. It is not SpaceX related, but I hereby open a "beer" - bet that Helion will produce net electricity from fusion before the end of 2025. If I lose, you get a drink from me. If I win, I will buy a bottle of port or two for us to cheer with together. My treat, but you have to come for a visit to Michigan!
Deal?
Deal. I will only modify that if either of us is nearby each other, we can pay up. Additionally, value of bet not to exceed $20!

I usually go to Michigan once or twice a year, so this should be doable!

So is that net for the reaction or for the whole machine?
The laser implosion is positive for the reaction but negative for the whole machine.
With ELV best efficiency was the paradigm. The new paradigm is reusable, good enough, and commonality of design.
Same engines. Design once. Same vehicle. Design once. Reusable. Build once.

Offline Jim

  • Night Gator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 37435
  • Cape Canaveral Spaceport
  • Liked: 21437
  • Likes Given: 428
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #151 on: 01/02/2024 03:02 pm »
Public notice served, and a place to tally SpaceX's long-term progress towards reusability and market growth.

It all started here:

That is nonsense. 
And get ready to be disappointed.  The dead end method is likely the only viable method.   If the GSE can't support routine and rapid launches, don't expect the reused flight hardware to be any different.

I feel like there's a friendly case-of-beer-in-ten-years bet that I want to make here.

Jim always serves up a nice counterpoint to the rampant optimism around these boards, but I like to make predictions stick. So I've bet him a 24-case of beer against a bottle of vodka that SpaceX will fly 48 or more missions – an average of 4 per month – on reused rockets in 2024. Expendable rockets don't count, and neither do first-time-flying ones.


I will pay off based on 2023.  When and where?

Offline dcporter

  • Full Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 881
  • Liked: 266
  • Likes Given: 421
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #152 on: 01/04/2024 01:49 pm »
🤝🏻. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

Offline scaesare

  • Member
  • Posts: 39
  • Liked: 51
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #153 on: 01/04/2024 03:15 pm »
🤝🏻. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

Resurrecting a decade-old thread to pay off a bet.

Well done, honorable sir!

Offline Jim

  • Night Gator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 37435
  • Cape Canaveral Spaceport
  • Liked: 21437
  • Likes Given: 428
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #154 on: 01/04/2024 04:14 pm »
🤝🏻. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

is it available in FL?

Offline meekGee

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 14127
  • N. California
  • Liked: 14001
  • Likes Given: 1391
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #155 on: 01/05/2024 06:13 am »
. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

Resurrecting a decade-old thread to pay off a bet.

Well done, honorable sir!
Damn accurate though, from 9 years away!
ABCD - Always Be Counting Down

Offline Hog

  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2843
  • Woodstock
  • Liked: 1698
  • Likes Given: 6849
Re: SpaceX Beer Bet Tracker
« Reply #156 on: 01/11/2024 02:24 pm »
🤝🏻. Thanks Jim, it's been an honor. I'm excited for SpaceX, and for the future!

Two 12-packs of Night Shift Santilli should settle us up? I'll reach out.

Resurrecting a decade-old thread to pay off a bet.

Well done, honorable sir!
Jim's the one who posted up that he's ready to pay off the beer bet.  Post #151.
We don't do "stolen honour" here at NSF.com.(j/k) 

It's nice to see a long term friendly wager come to completion.  Congrats gentlemen!



Edit 1/16/24:man to men
« Last Edit: 01/17/2024 01:18 am by Hog »
Paul

Tags:
 

Advertisement NovaTech
Advertisement Northrop Grumman
Advertisement
Advertisement Margaritaville Beach Resort South Padre Island
Advertisement Brady Kenniston
Advertisement NextSpaceflight
Advertisement Nathan Barker Photography
0