Quote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 01:54 pmQuote from: sebk on 12/04/2022 01:21 pmMoreover, launch is the safer part and it's already well understood in general. The seats are the most needed for descent and landing, and there seats operational conditions are even more airplane-like. They'd have the easiest job in the most risky part of the flight which is good as it maximizes pLOC reduction.I don't understand. The riskiest part of EDL is, I thought, the point near max heating which is at high altitude and hypersonic Mach number.I think it's generally understood that there are no abort options during this regime.
Quote from: sebk on 12/04/2022 01:21 pmMoreover, launch is the safer part and it's already well understood in general. The seats are the most needed for descent and landing, and there seats operational conditions are even more airplane-like. They'd have the easiest job in the most risky part of the flight which is good as it maximizes pLOC reduction.I don't understand. The riskiest part of EDL is, I thought, the point near max heating which is at high altitude and hypersonic Mach number.
Moreover, launch is the safer part and it's already well understood in general. The seats are the most needed for descent and landing, and there seats operational conditions are even more airplane-like. They'd have the easiest job in the most risky part of the flight which is good as it maximizes pLOC reduction.
Quote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 01:56 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 01:54 pmQuote from: sebk on 12/04/2022 01:21 pmMoreover, launch is the safer part and it's already well understood in general. The seats are the most needed for descent and landing, and there seats operational conditions are even more airplane-like. They'd have the easiest job in the most risky part of the flight which is good as it maximizes pLOC reduction.I don't understand. The riskiest part of EDL is, I thought, the point near max heating which is at high altitude and hypersonic Mach number.I think it's generally understood that there are no abort options during this regime.Oh, okay, so the idea is that abort is needed most during landing because we simply can't do anything about entry.
There are lots of things that can be done to improve the survivability of off-nominal reentry, such as making your structure out of a high temperature metal like stainless steel instead of aluminum (or conventional composites).
Quote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 02:24 pmQuote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 01:56 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 01:54 pmQuote from: sebk on 12/04/2022 01:21 pmMoreover, launch is the safer part and it's already well understood in general. The seats are the most needed for descent and landing, and there seats operational conditions are even more airplane-like. They'd have the easiest job in the most risky part of the flight which is good as it maximizes pLOC reduction.I don't understand. The riskiest part of EDL is, I thought, the point near max heating which is at high altitude and hypersonic Mach number.I think it's generally understood that there are no abort options during this regime.Oh, okay, so the idea is that abort is needed most during landing because we simply can't do anything about entry.There are lots of things that can be done to improve the survivability of off-nominal reentry, such as making your structure out of a high temperature metal like stainless steel instead of aluminum (or conventional composites).
Meanwhile, NASA has regulations for its professional astronauts:pLOC <1/500 during ascentpLOC <1/500 during EDLpLOC <1/270 during a six-month mission, after factoring in MMOD and other on-orbit hazards.1/500 for each of launch and EDL is almost certainly what NASA would expect, and I'd be surprised if SpaceX didn't hold itself to the same standard for private missions. There's too much downside and not enough upside to do anything else.
For SH failures, use the second stage as an escape pod. This should work except in those cases where the SH quickly goes KA-BOOM.
Quote from: LouScheffer on 12/05/2022 02:22 amFor SH failures, use the second stage as an escape pod. This should work except in those cases where the SH quickly goes KA-BOOM. We're kinda covering stuff that's fairly close up-thread, but don't forget pad aborts, which are a high-runner set of failures. You can get Starship to escape the pad, but it requires:1) Reducing payload and prop to an absolute minimum. And even then, you only get a T/W of 6. For comparison, the Apollo LES used T/W=12 for a stack with a bit less potential explosive energy. On the other hand, D2 gets away with a T/W of about 4.6, but it has a lot less explosive energy.2) The Starship's Raptors need to start while still mated the the SH. This almost certainly would require some redesign of the SH.
Quote from: TheRadicalModerate on 12/05/2022 02:43 amQuote from: LouScheffer on 12/05/2022 02:22 amFor SH failures, use the second stage as an escape pod. This should work except in those cases where the SH quickly goes KA-BOOM. We're kinda covering stuff that's fairly close up-thread, but don't forget pad aborts, which are a high-runner set of failures. You can get Starship to escape the pad, but it requires:1) Reducing payload and prop to an absolute minimum. And even then, you only get a T/W of 6. For comparison, the Apollo LES used T/W=12 for a stack with a bit less potential explosive energy. On the other hand, D2 gets away with a T/W of about 4.6, but it has a lot less explosive energy.2) The Starship's Raptors need to start while still mated the the SH. This almost certainly would require some redesign of the SH.Just Kerbal it and stick some SRBs in the skirt for pad aborts.
Quote from: Robotbeat on 12/04/2022 04:50 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 02:24 pmQuote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 01:56 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 01:54 pmQuote from: sebk on 12/04/2022 01:21 pmMoreover, launch is the safer part and it's already well understood in general. The seats are the most needed for descent and landing, and there seats operational conditions are even more airplane-like. They'd have the easiest job in the most risky part of the flight which is good as it maximizes pLOC reduction.I don't understand. The riskiest part of EDL is, I thought, the point near max heating which is at high altitude and hypersonic Mach number.I think it's generally understood that there are no abort options during this regime.Oh, okay, so the idea is that abort is needed most during landing because we simply can't do anything about entry.There are lots of things that can be done to improve the survivability of off-nominal reentry, such as making your structure out of a high temperature metal like stainless steel instead of aluminum (or conventional composites).If the stainless could handing a NOMINAL entry, they wouldn't need tiles, to say nothing of an off-nominal entry, which is what would take place after a burnthrough.
I think engine out capability during landing addresses a lot of this risk, as does using legs instead of chopsticks for crew.
Quote from: Lee Jay on 12/05/2022 01:08 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 12/04/2022 04:50 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 02:24 pmQuote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 01:56 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 01:54 pmQuote from: sebk on 12/04/2022 01:21 pmMoreover, launch is the safer part and it's already well understood in general. The seats are the most needed for descent and landing, and there seats operational conditions are even more airplane-like. They'd have the easiest job in the most risky part of the flight which is good as it maximizes pLOC reduction.I don't understand. The riskiest part of EDL is, I thought, the point near max heating which is at high altitude and hypersonic Mach number.I think it's generally understood that there are no abort options during this regime.Oh, okay, so the idea is that abort is needed most during landing because we simply can't do anything about entry.There are lots of things that can be done to improve the survivability of off-nominal reentry, such as making your structure out of a high temperature metal like stainless steel instead of aluminum (or conventional composites).If the stainless could handing a NOMINAL entry, they wouldn't need tiles, to say nothing of an off-nominal entry, which is what would take place after a burnthrough.Nope. There is such thing as material annealing. The steel the ship is made from was hardened (it's cold rolled -- it's a type of work hardening; 300 series stainless hardens very well and its yield strength gets increased a few times). Stainless starts to slowly lose this strength above 700K and does so practically immediately above 1200K. But it's not melting point. 304 stainless steel melts at 1570K to 1630K. Shuttle tiles were to withstand 1530K. As far as we know Starship tiles are the same.The vehicle needs its full strength primarily on ascent when its tanks are pressurized to 6bar while it faces ~35kPa max-q loads or 3.5g late booster burn load, all the while filled with 1200t of ascent propellant (so for example its skirt has to handle about 5000t load; 3.5g * ~1400t). But during EDL the vehicle is an order of magnitude lighter, dynamic loads are ~20kPa, tanks don't need high pressurization and likely are pressurized as little as possible because ullage gas has non-trivial mass. Suddenly skin doesn't have to survive stress of a 6bar, when the pressure is 2bar. Your skin structural margin increased from 40% to over 400%. The thing could become 4x weaker and it would still hold.But after such overheating the vehicle would be a write-off (unless the overheating affected only a small patch, then a repair is an option). 300 series remains annealed after it's annealed, it doesn't heal (it doesn't age harden appreciably). You need to work harden it again (this is one of the reasons SpaceX had some initial trouble with popping tanks: weld's anneal the base material; they implemented a better controlled welding process and they also planish many welds which restores some of the strength, and they use weld doublers where fixing up seams is not feasible).
Quote from: sebk on 12/05/2022 10:16 amQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/05/2022 01:08 amQuote from: Robotbeat on 12/04/2022 04:50 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 02:24 pmQuote from: chopsticks on 12/04/2022 01:56 pmQuote from: Lee Jay on 12/04/2022 01:54 pmQuote from: sebk on 12/04/2022 01:21 pmMoreover, launch is the safer part and it's already well understood in general. The seats are the most needed for descent and landing, and there seats operational conditions are even more airplane-like. They'd have the easiest job in the most risky part of the flight which is good as it maximizes pLOC reduction.I don't understand. The riskiest part of EDL is, I thought, the point near max heating which is at high altitude and hypersonic Mach number.I think it's generally understood that there are no abort options during this regime.Oh, okay, so the idea is that abort is needed most during landing because we simply can't do anything about entry.There are lots of things that can be done to improve the survivability of off-nominal reentry, such as making your structure out of a high temperature metal like stainless steel instead of aluminum (or conventional composites).If the stainless could handing a NOMINAL entry, they wouldn't need tiles, to say nothing of an off-nominal entry, which is what would take place after a burnthrough.Nope. There is such thing as material annealing. The steel the ship is made from was hardened (it's cold rolled -- it's a type of work hardening; 300 series stainless hardens very well and its yield strength gets increased a few times). Stainless starts to slowly lose this strength above 700K and does so practically immediately above 1200K. But it's not melting point. 304 stainless steel melts at 1570K to 1630K. Shuttle tiles were to withstand 1530K. As far as we know Starship tiles are the same.The vehicle needs its full strength primarily on ascent when its tanks are pressurized to 6bar while it faces ~35kPa max-q loads or 3.5g late booster burn load, all the while filled with 1200t of ascent propellant (so for example its skirt has to handle about 5000t load; 3.5g * ~1400t). But during EDL the vehicle is an order of magnitude lighter, dynamic loads are ~20kPa, tanks don't need high pressurization and likely are pressurized as little as possible because ullage gas has non-trivial mass. Suddenly skin doesn't have to survive stress of a 6bar, when the pressure is 2bar. Your skin structural margin increased from 40% to over 400%. The thing could become 4x weaker and it would still hold.But after such overheating the vehicle would be a write-off (unless the overheating affected only a small patch, then a repair is an option). 300 series remains annealed after it's annealed, it doesn't heal (it doesn't age harden appreciably). You need to work harden it again (this is one of the reasons SpaceX had some initial trouble with popping tanks: weld's anneal the base material; they implemented a better controlled welding process and they also planish many welds which restores some of the strength, and they use weld doublers where fixing up seams is not feasible).I don't buy this.The RCC was for entry temperatures *above* 1530K. You're equating that with a *melting* temperature in the same range. These are NOT the same thing. A material just below its melting point has lost most of its strength and will fail soon, if not immediately. At 1000C 304 is 8 times weaker (lower yield stress) than at 600C.We're talking about what to do in an off-nominal entry. Off-nominal likely means damage (tiles or other) or loss of control. I suspect in either case the assumption that there's nothing you can do is actually correct. Damage will likely lead to burn through from loss of strength or full blown melting and that's worse on this vehicle than on Shuttle simply because burn through is on a pressurized tank you have to have to land safely. Loss of control is probably worse. So I seriously doubt that the intrinsic design of this vehicle makes it more robust against off-nominal entry conditions, and I certainly don't know of an abort option for that situation.
The idea is that when the heat shield is partly compromised, an underlying steel structure will last a lot longer than an underlying aluminum one.
The temperature at the structure will not be that of the outer skin, so the ability to withstand elevated temperatures really matters.
Similarly if for whatever reason the peak temperature reached is higher than planned, temperatures will rise on the inner side of tge heat shield, and again Stainless will perform much better than Aluminum.
Quote from: meekGee on 12/05/2022 05:24 pmThe idea is that when the heat shield is partly compromised, an underlying steel structure will last a lot longer than an underlying aluminum one.Which is irrelevant if they both fail.
QuoteThe temperature at the structure will not be that of the outer skin, so the ability to withstand elevated temperatures really matters.Since the skin is the structure, I don't know what this means.
QuoteSimilarly if for whatever reason the peak temperature reached is higher than planned, temperatures will rise on the inner side of tge heat shield, and again Stainless will perform much better than Aluminum.Which, again, doesn't matter since neither one will survive entry temperatures if the heat shield is compromised or if the entry is otherwise off-nominal.
Quote from: meekGee on 12/05/2022 05:24 pmSimilarly if for whatever reason the peak temperature reached is higher than planned, temperatures will rise on the inner side of tge heat shield, and again Stainless will perform much better than Aluminum.Which, again, doesn't matter since neither one will survive entry temperatures if the heat shield is compromised or if the entry is otherwise off-nominal.
We're talking about what to do in an off-nominal entry. Off-nominal likely means damage (tiles or other) or loss of control. I suspect in either case the assumption that there's nothing you can do is actually correct.
One of the shuttles lost a tile and survived reentry (STS-27) because it happened to be over an antenna mounting plate rather than the normal aluminum skin. The loss of a tile isn't necessarily fatal if the underlying substrate is robust enough. Stainless steel is much better than aluminum in this regards as evidenced by the lack of need for lee side TPS on SS.
Quote from: chopsticks on 12/05/2022 03:02 amJust Kerbal it and stick some SRBs in the skirt for pad aborts. You joke, but there is room for 3 solid rocket boosters on Starship with a burn time of a few seconds. Instead of adding 3 vacuum raptors, add 3 solid rocket boosters of the same dimensions.
Just Kerbal it and stick some SRBs in the skirt for pad aborts.
Quote from: InterestedEngineer on 12/05/2022 06:21 amQuote from: chopsticks on 12/05/2022 03:02 amJust Kerbal it and stick some SRBs in the skirt for pad aborts. You joke, but there is room for 3 solid rocket boosters on Starship with a burn time of a few seconds. Instead of adding 3 vacuum raptors, add 3 solid rocket boosters of the same dimensions.The joke is probably applicable. First of all, this is a new engine. SRBs aren't particularly complicated, but still, if you're comparing the amount of work to something like the enshrouded D2 escape system, they're within shouting distance of one another.Also, this makes the mass-flow problem in the skirt worse. If you're going to start any engines on the Starship while still mated to the SH, you're going to have to engineer blowout panels at the very least. But at some point, there's so much mass flow, irrespective of blowout panels, that you're going to destroy the top of the SH LCH4 dome, which will be game over. Since SRBs derive their thrust from insane amounts of mass flow, they'll make things a lot worse.A quick note: The T/W=6 with the most lightly loaded crewed Starship possible to orbit already assumes 9 engines.