Which companies will win NSSL Phase II Launch Service Procurement Awards?

[jongoff]

With the NSSL Phase II Launch Services Procurement proposal submitted today, with Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems, SpaceX, and ULA all bidding, I'm curious who people expect are the most likely to be selected for awards.

Here's a thread on the solicitation for those less familiar with it: https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=46977.0

Note1: This isn't about who you think ought to win, but who you think will win, and why.
Note2: I gave the "Other" option in case you think the USAF will award more or less than two bids, for instance if you think the solicitation will get canceled or modified due to Congress or Blue Origin's bid protest.

The poll will be open for 30 days, users are allowed to change their votes, but have to vote before they see how others did. Please share your thoughts on why you voted the way you did.

~Jon

[lonestriker]

ULA 60, SpaceX 40.

That's the only possible outcome given the procurement was tailor-made for ULA to win.  SpaceX gets 40% to act as a backup who can perform the missions, so ULA gets their money and the Air Force knows they'll be able to launch their birds one way or another.  Kill two birds with one stone: primary purpose of the procurement is to feed ULA.  Secondary objective is national security (only half joking.)

[jongoff]

I voted for SpaceX and ULA. SpaceX as vehicles already flying that should be capable of all of these mission types, and it sounds like they bid Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy. They would need to add some capabilities like vertical payload integration, but it sounds like after their last loss they may finally be taking the AF seriously and giving them what they want. So they might be one of the most affordable options and the lowest risk options.

I picked ULA second because: a) it looks like they've done a lot of work with USAF pre-selling their approach, and making sure they were offering exactly what the customer wants, b) Blue isn't used to bidding super big solicitations like this one, c) while Vulcan is unproven, it at least is likely to fly in time, and d) they have a credible backup in case of delays. I really doubt Blue can say much about b, c, or d, and I don't think NGIS can counter c and d. Blue's case would be a lot stronger if New Glenn were further along and if BE-4 development were staying on schedule. The BE-4 delays hurt ULA a bit, but not as much because they have a backup. NGIS is saddled with an unconventional design that I doubt the USAF is that enamored with, less legacy, and less potential for commercial viability. Plus probably worse launch environments.

I could be wrong, but that's my guess.

I'd say who I think ought to win, but that might involve pouring more napalm on the fire than I want to tonight.

~Jon

[TripleSeven]

ULA 60, SpaceX 40.

That's the only possible outcome given the procurement was tailor-made for ULA to win.  SpaceX gets 40% to act as a backup who can perform the missions, so ULA gets their money and the Air Force knows they'll be able to launch their birds one way or another.  Kill two birds with one stone: primary purpose of the procurement is to feed ULA.  Secondary objective is national security (only half joking.)

I agree...

ULA will get the 60 because 1) the USAF wants them to develop the Vulcan recovery pod and they like the Centaur which they want to develop into the long duration upper stage, 2) they want to feed money to BO which will get it with the engines...3) they are comfortable with ULA and their performance..

[jongoff]

ULA 60, SpaceX 40.

That's the only possible outcome given the procurement was tailor-made for ULA to win.  SpaceX gets 40% to act as a backup who can perform the missions, so ULA gets their money and the Air Force knows they'll be able to launch their birds one way or another.  Kill two birds with one stone: primary purpose of the procurement is to feed ULA.  Secondary objective is national security (only half joking.)

I agree...

ULA will get the 60 because 1) the USAF wants them to develop the Vulcan recovery pod and they like the Centaur which they want to develop into the long duration upper stage, 2) they want to feed money to BO which will get it with the engines...3) they are comfortable with ULA and their performance..

I actually think they'd go 60/40 SpaceX/ULA. ULA is going to be sufficiently more expensive that having them be the second place winner would still keep ULA alive while making it look like they were being reasonable.

But I like your point that keeping ULA alive still feeds some money to BO which allows them to sort of hedge their bets on New Glenn. I hadn't though of that angle.

~Jon

[rcoppola]

It will be ULA 60%. SpaceX 40%. SpaceX will then protest and the USAF will be forced to reverse its decision reapportioning the percentages.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I too went with ULA and SpaceX. ULA due to their unrivalled operational experience and because, to a large extent, the company is geared to National Security launches and will meet all USAF’s requirements. The only fly in the ointment is Vulcan is currently unproven, although Atlas V provides a good backup. SpaceX will be included as the only bidder offering an existing proven and certified LV. From a NSSL pov Blue is too much of an unknown quantity and NGIS too risky.

I’m torn on the 60/40 split allocation and think it can be argued either way. I tend to believe the view that the competition favours ULA and so think they probably are more likely to get the 60%. But I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion and SpaceX might sneak it.

[jabe]

ULA 60, SpaceX 40.

i took spacex/ula too
is that 60/40 cost % or # of launches?  i say cost..but spacex will do more launches for the lower cost

[arachnitect]

previous poll (now closed): https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48112.0

Voted spacex/ULA.

I do think the hivemind is underrating NGIS' chances though.

[Lar]

it would have made the poll massive to also do the splits (there would be two options per pair of providers) but it would be nice to see the data on that too.

That said my vote: SpaceX/ULA with a 40/60 (ULA gets most) split.

How it SHOULD be?   Blue/SpaceX with a 40/60 (SpaceX gets most) split.  (unlike Jon I have no fears of the posters getting out of hand based on my view )

it's very possible that SpaceX gets shut out. The competition was written to favor everyone else but it can't be too blatant so I think it's more likely to come out the way I voted.

NGIS? Not really a contender IMHO. BICBW.

[Aurora]

Blue Origin - protested competition on submittal date.  Not moving forward on their LSA contract commitments, has a long way to go to meet the certified to launch date of April 2022.   

SpaceX - voting is challenging, since we do not know what they bid.   They could bid F9 and FH, however their investment and activities are focused on Starship/FSH.   What was their bid strategy this time?   Last time, their strategy failed (on LSA).

ULA - Vulcan Centaur V is challenged by the delivery of BE-4 to meet the April 2022 certified to launch date. ULA will still be challenged by production cost/overhead/launch support to provide an expendable launch vehicle.

NGIS - not too much information publically about this launch vehicle, however the USAF has been funding development for four years - their must be some underlying value to the USAF

[jongoff]

previous poll (now closed): https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=48112.0

Voted spacex/ULA.

I do think the hivemind is underrating NGIS' chances though.

Sorry about that, I didn't see the previous poll when I took a quick look at the polling section, or I probably wouldn't have repeated a new one so soon.

~Jon

[TorenAltair]

ULA 60, NGIS 40
ULA = Boeing+Lockheed+longstanding reliable partner
NGIS = big solids+Northrop

Blue Origin has no orbital experience at all, not even sure regarding their past progress when New Glenn will be available

SpaceX too disruptive for the defense industries from a DoD perspective, need to be kept under control

[FutureSpaceTourist]

SpaceX too disruptive for the defense industries from a DoD perspective, need to be kept under control

If that was true I don’t think SpaceX would have won the launches it already has. DoD likes SpaceX getting their competitors to up their game (and lower their prices).

[Star One]

SpaceX too disruptive for the defense industries from a DoD perspective, need to be kept under control

If that was true I don’t think SpaceX would have won the launches it already has. DoD likes SpaceX getting their competitors to up their game (and lower their prices).

Yeah this is correct & why I think Space X will get the 60 & not 40.

[Athelstane]

ULA 60, SpaceX 40.

That's the only possible outcome given the procurement was tailor-made for ULA to win.  SpaceX gets 40% to act as a backup who can perform the missions, so ULA gets their money and the Air Force knows they'll be able to launch their birds one way or another.  Kill two birds with one stone: primary purpose of the procurement is to feed ULA.  Secondary objective is national security (only half joking.)

Yeah.

This is the conventional wisdom, but it is the conventional wisdom for some very powerful reasons. This solicitation really is tailor made for ULA.

There is a small chance that perhaps SpaceX could grab the 60%, I suppose, but probably only if ULA hits some significant snags in Vulcan development, or Decatur gets hit by an asteroid.

But the truth is . . . the actual difference betweem 60% and 40% here amounts to - what? - one launch per year? I don't think SpaceX (with its massive and diversified manifest in the early 2020's) would be as devastated at losing that launch as ULA will be. ULA needs every single DoD launch it can get.

[RedLineTrain]

I think it's pretty clear that ULA will get the 60% because in the DoD's view, ULA needs it.  SpaceX can survive on its commercial business.

For at least the last several decades, the DoD fundamentally hasn't believed in competition.  Competition for them is something to be feared, to be minimized.  For instance, for as long as I can remember, they have encouraged consolidation in their supplier base.

[Newton_V]

SpaceX gets 60% of the launches.
ULA gets 60% of the money (the Cat C missions)

[jongoff]

SpaceX gets 60% of the launches.
ULA gets 60% of the money (the Cat C missions)

This is more in line with my thinking. Kind of like the COTS split between Dragon and Cygnus (missions vs dollars).

~Jon

[ZachF]

Here is my vegas odds:

70% chance: ULA60%, SpaceX40%
20% chance: SpaceX60%, ULA 40%
9% chance: ULA60%, NGIS40%
1% chance: every other combination

In the first scenario, counting the Vulcan development money ULA recieves ~80% of the total contract money. In the second scenario, 70% of the total contract money. The third option is the maximum cronyism option... It's what the generals writing the contracts would like to do for maximum post-retirement rewards, but probably can't get away with.