Total Members Voted: 123
Voting closed: 03/31/2019 06:29 pm
...and China's economy is the one trending upwards.
I'll be the contrarian and suggest the Long March 9. Superheavy launch capability is a statement about the health of the country's economy, how much excess they have to spend on vanity projects, and China's economy is the one trending upwards.
I almost voted for New Glenn, but went with BFR / Starship instead. I think that Blue Origin will be very hot on SpaceX's heels. Probably within single digit months.
https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1100165131101720579QuoteJust finished a nice interview with @torybruno. The first flight hardware for Vulcan is now being produced at ULA’s factory in Alabama. First launch remains set for Spring 2021.https://twitter.com/stephenclark1/status/1100167165578235905QuoteCritical design review for Vulcan should be completed soon, says @torybruno. Waiting on some final data from BE-4 engine tests. He says Blue Origin has completed dozens of hotfire tests to date on the BE-4, the most powerful methane rocket engine ever built.Presumably waiting to get higher than 70% power?
Just finished a nice interview with @torybruno. The first flight hardware for Vulcan is now being produced at ULA’s factory in Alabama. First launch remains set for Spring 2021.
Critical design review for Vulcan should be completed soon, says @torybruno. Waiting on some final data from BE-4 engine tests. He says Blue Origin has completed dozens of hotfire tests to date on the BE-4, the most powerful methane rocket engine ever built.
Quote from: whitelancer64 on 03/19/2019 10:13 pmI almost voted for New Glenn, but went with BFR / Starship instead. I think that Blue Origin will be very hot on SpaceX's heels. Probably within single digit months.I'd be thrilled to see bent metal on a New Glen prototype and a testing program with it that's pushes SpaceX within the next 12 months.
My vote was based on available payloads, not the launch vehicle's rated capacity. I also considered only the payload mass of deep space missions, not any kick stages. Similarly payload adapter mass is not included.TBH I have my doubts about SpaceX being able to build 25+ tonnes of Starlink satellites before SS/SH is ready to launch the next load.
In any event, it's a really close race, and I suspect that all of these (barring, possibly, SLS if it's cancelled) will fly within a year of each other.
Quote from: dlapine on 03/19/2019 11:10 pmQuote from: whitelancer64 on 03/19/2019 10:13 pmI almost voted for New Glenn, but went with BFR / Starship instead. I think that Blue Origin will be very hot on SpaceX's heels. Probably within single digit months.I'd be thrilled to see bent metal on a New Glen prototype and a testing program with it that's pushes SpaceX within the next 12 months.I don't think we're going to see much of New Glenn until it's on the launch pad. That's just how Blue Origin is. It will look like they came out of nowhere.
Very unpopular opinion, but of the options, the rocket with the most hardware completed (that I've seen) is the SLS. Honestly, SLS has a ton of problems that could set it back beyond the other options, but it is the only one with all stages (slowly) approaching completion.
I was more contrarian than I thought by voting for Vulcan, with SLS being a close second. I doubt SLS is going to fly in 2020, in spite of their new promises, and I wouldn't be surprised if it slipped enough that Vulcan wins. I'm positive Vulcan is going to fly before New Glenn -- it's just a lot further along the design process and not as ambitious or big or complicated. As far as Starship goes, I'm skeptical it will be flying before summer of 2021 either. They're doing a crude, simplified hopper right now, but there's a ton of work from here to an operating Starship/SuperHeavy. I just don't see it flying before Vulcan.~Jon
Unpopular or not, it's reality. SLS is past design and fabrication and is in integration and test right now. SpaceX is still making changes to the main architecture of SS/SH and only a few months ago decided what to even build it out of.
Quote from: space_snap828 on 03/28/2019 02:34 amVery unpopular opinion, but of the options, the rocket with the most hardware completed (that I've seen) is the SLS. Honestly, SLS has a ton of problems that could set it back beyond the other options, but it is the only one with all stages (slowly) approaching completion.Unpopular or not, it's reality. SLS is past design and fabrication and is in integration and test right now. SpaceX is still making changes to the main architecture of SS/SH and only a few months ago decided what to even build it out of.
All it is is just a big metal Grasshopper!
Is Vulcan a 25+ metric tonne launcher, though? Vulcan Heavy with Centaur 5+ Long is well over 25 t to LEO, but I rather doubt that version will fly at all before 2022. I'm not sure how many SRBs they need to get to 25 t to LEO with the initial Centaur 5, or whether that version will be able to get 25 t to LEO at all without an enhanced upper stage.
If a Vulcan 522 flying an 8 t demosat to GTO counts, then Starship reaching LEO with a wheel of cheese and no booster is in the same boat.
Quote from: envy887 on 03/28/2019 01:58 pmIs Vulcan a 25+ metric tonne launcher, though? Vulcan Heavy with Centaur 5+ Long is well over 25 t to LEO, but I rather doubt that version will fly at all before 2022. I'm not sure how many SRBs they need to get to 25 t to LEO with the initial Centaur 5, or whether that version will be able to get 25 t to LEO at all without an enhanced upper stage.I'm pretty sure Vulcan with the initial version of Centaur V should be able to get to 25mT to LEO with a standard number of strapons. I don't think they'd need Centaur V+ Long to get there. Though I could be wrong. We haven't actually been very involved with ULA for over a year.As for whether they would fly a Vulcan with 25mT payload before 2022, that's less likely. But if the stock Centaur V with a standard number of stapons will get you to 25mT, I'd still count it.QuoteIf a Vulcan 522 flying an 8 t demosat to GTO counts, then Starship reaching LEO with a wheel of cheese and no booster is in the same boat.So long as the Starship could realistically put 25mT worth of cargo into orbit with the configuration that flies the cheese, I'd count it to. And I just don't think that such a Startship is going to fly before 2022. There's a heck of a long way from their current StarHopper to a super Saturn V class orbital launch vehicle. More than 2.5yrs worth of distance IMO, based on their past experience with much easier launch vehicles.~Jon
I don't think it's implausible that Starship could SSTO 25 t to LEO by burning its landing fuel on ascent.
Quote from: envy887 on 03/28/2019 07:13 pmI don't think it's implausible that Starship could SSTO 25 t to LEO by burning its landing fuel on ascent. Pixel measuring the ITS 2016 presentation delta-v/payload map suggests not even ITS could do it on paper which was much larger.
I am going to be insufferably smug when the SLS flies first 1-3 years from now and I point back to this thread.Of course, I'm not a hypocrite: feel free to rub this statement into my face if history doesn't vindicate it. But I'm pretty confident it will.
Quote from: ncb1397 on 03/31/2019 09:34 amQuote from: envy887 on 03/28/2019 07:13 pmI don't think it's implausible that Starship could SSTO 25 t to LEO by burning its landing fuel on ascent. Pixel measuring the ITS 2016 presentation delta-v/payload map suggests not even ITS could do it on paper which was much larger.Why are all ITS/BFR/SS threadsp polluted by this offtopic-SSTO madness?Having 9.3km/s of delta-v does not guarantee ability to SSTO. The 2016 version definitely could not SSTO because of it did not have enough atmospheric engines to take off safely with any reasonable amount of fuel. it would had had to used only partially filled tanks, having maybe only about 7km/s of delta-v with fuel if could lift with, and it would still had had terrible gravity losses.
I think Blue will fly to orbit first. They don't tell us ANYTHING about what is going on, but they do have a factory and are building an operational launch pad and are selling flights, so on paper they are ahead of Starship. They also have a lot more money available to work toward the goal. If Starship reaches orbit before New Glenn then I'm not sure Blue has a future.
I voted SS/SH because their build rate is a new flight vehicle is one every 6 months in serial production. The first full SS orbital version prototype will be flight ready ~ July 2019. It will likely incorporate lessons learned almost all of which is software but some mechanical/structural possibly as well from the Starhopper #1 flight tests. What this all portends is a full orbital reaching SS flight vehicle ready by #3 by Jan 2020. Add a SH hopper #1 test vehicle followed in ~6 months by a operational SH vehicle #2 by around July 2020 that can carry the SS #3 then this stack would be doing its first orbital demo around October 2020. (Expect a 3 month timeframe to work out processing and integration.)
It's 6 months later, and SpaceX doesn't yet have an orbital prototype, Boeing hasn't yet started attaching engines to the first SLS (that we know of), no New Glenn updates. It does seem to favor SS a bit, with raptors having done test flights with a hopper at this point.Any updates on your thoughts here without re-doing the poll?
I voted that none will fly before Jan 1, 2022, although I hope I'm wrong. It is possible that any might have an orbital launch prior to that date, and I think it is likely that some or all will by Jan 1, 2023, but I think schedules are going to slip so we won't see it in the time allowed in the poll. SLS will slip... because it's SLS. Vulcan will slip because it doesn't need to slip that much, Blue takes things slow and this will be their first orbital vehicle, I think the SpaceX vehicle has extra technology that has to be proved out, ie. tranpirational cooling, and this is not a given and I don't think they will launch without it. Also I'm not sure if Spacex will have sufficient internal or external funding for this project within the time available.
Quote from: dlapine on 10/08/2019 10:00 pmIt's 6 months later, and SpaceX doesn't yet have an orbital prototype, Boeing hasn't yet started attaching engines to the first SLS (that we know of), no New Glenn updates. It does seem to favor SS a bit, with raptors having done test flights with a hopper at this point.Any updates on your thoughts here without re-doing the poll?I still think there's a decent chance Vulcan beats Starship to orbit, but if it does it might not be by much. I'm really skeptical of Elon's 6 month claim, and highly doubt they'll get a successful orbital flight by the end of 2020, but Vulcan is late enough in 2021 that there's a chance Starship could win, especially if you count a non-reuse-capable Starship stunt. I wouldn't bet on either NG or SLS beating Starship though.~Jon
This is an odd thread/poll. SLS/NG/Vulc and LM9 (if we include the latter as the "other") are in the same class as Falcon Heavy, which is already flying. But to be "fair" to the others, we have to pretend they are in a "race" with Starship.If Starship launches before the others, they won't have just won the race, it means they've won on the first race course, packed up, moved to the next race course, unpacked and set up, and then also run that race before the other competitors have crossed the line at the previous course.
Quote from: Paul451 on 10/22/2019 09:02 amThis is an odd thread/poll. SLS/NG/Vulc and LM9 (if we include the latter as the "other") are in the same class as Falcon Heavy, which is already flying. But to be "fair" to the others, we have to pretend they are in a "race" with Starship.If Starship launches before the others, they won't have just won the race, it means they've won on the first race course, packed up, moved to the next race course, unpacked and set up, and then also run that race before the other competitors have crossed the line at the previous course.I don't disagree mostly, but if SLS were flying now, it would have better LEO/TLI performance and better support for larger volumes with the 10m fairings. Would that be worth the extra $10B (SLS only) in development costs? Probably not. Part of the other issue is that NASA and the DOD seem to be acting as if the FH were not already available as a heavy option. at least with respect to block buys. With Starship or any of the other wide-bodies in putting payload into orbit, perceptions change.
Quote from: dlapine on 10/22/2019 10:03 pmI don't disagree mostly, but if SLS were flying now, it would have better LEO/TLI performance and better support for larger volumes with the 10m fairings. Would that be worth the extra $10B (SLS only) in development costs? Probably not. Part of the other issue is that NASA and the DOD seem to be acting as if the FH were not already available as a heavy option. at least with respect to block buys. With Starship or any of the other wide-bodies in putting payload into orbit, perceptions change.What 10 m fairing? The only fairing available for SLS in any near-term scenario is the 5 m Delta IV fairing.The 8.4 m fairing requires EUS and isn't going to be operationally available before 2025.The 10 m fairing requires Block 2 and isn't going to be operationally available before 2028, if ever.
I don't disagree mostly, but if SLS were flying now, it would have better LEO/TLI performance and better support for larger volumes with the 10m fairings. Would that be worth the extra $10B (SLS only) in development costs? Probably not. Part of the other issue is that NASA and the DOD seem to be acting as if the FH were not already available as a heavy option. at least with respect to block buys. With Starship or any of the other wide-bodies in putting payload into orbit, perceptions change.
I was trying to see an upside for SLS, but
Quote from: dlapine on 10/08/2019 10:00 pmIt's 6 months later, and SpaceX doesn't yet have an orbital prototype, Boeing hasn't yet started attaching engines to the first SLS (that we know of), no New Glenn updates. It does seem to favor SS a bit, with raptors having done test flights with a hopper at this point.Any updates on your thoughts here without re-doing the poll?We've got engines installed on SLS/Artemis Core Stage#1.*snip*There is an L2 pic showing SLS Core Stage #1 with a RS-25 "Adaptation" (ME-2056 with 9 STS missions flown) engine installed in the #2 Engine Position(upper Left engine position).*snip*
Quote from: Hog on 10/25/2019 03:25 pmQuote from: dlapine on 10/08/2019 10:00 pmIt's 6 months later, and SpaceX doesn't yet have an orbital prototype, Boeing hasn't yet started attaching engines to the first SLS (that we know of), no New Glenn updates. It does seem to favor SS a bit, with raptors having done test flights with a hopper at this point.Any updates on your thoughts here without re-doing the poll?We've got engines installed on SLS/Artemis Core Stage#1.*snip*There is an L2 pic showing SLS Core Stage #1 with a RS-25 "Adaptation" (ME-2056 with 9 STS missions flown) engine installed in the #2 Engine Position(upper Left engine position).*snip*The pictures with the first engine installed are public.
Quote from: dlapine on 10/08/2019 10:00 pmIt's 6 months later, and SpaceX doesn't yet have an orbital prototype, Boeing hasn't yet started attaching engines to the first SLS (that we know of), no New Glenn updates. It does seem to favor SS a bit, with raptors having done test flights with a hopper at this point.Any updates on your thoughts here without re-doing the poll?We've got engines installed on SLS/Artemis Core Stage#1.
1) This pic was taken in the 60's at Michoud Asembly Facility and shows a lineup of at least 2 Saturn V SI-C 1st stages.
https://www.blueorigin.com/news/new-glenns-progress-towards-maiden-flightQuote NEWSFEB 25, 2021NEW GLENN’S PROGRESS TOWARDS MAIDEN FLIGHTAs major progress is being made on the New Glenn launch vehicle and its Cape Canaveral facilities, the schedule has been refined to match the demand of Blue Origin’s commercial customers. The current target for New Glenn’s maiden flight is Q4 2022. The Blue Origin team has been in contact with all of our customers to ensure this baseline meets their launch needs.This updated maiden flight target follows the recent Space Force decision to not select New Glenn for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Launch Services Procurement (LSP). New Glenn is proceeding to fulfill its current commercial contracts, pursue a large and growing commercial market, and enter into new civil space launch contracts. We hope to launch NSSL payloads in the future, and remain committed to serving the U.S. national defense mission. Recent milestones include completion of a New Glenn first stage mockup simulator, completion of a structural test facility, and hardware milestones for tanks, stage modules, and composite fairings.In addition to program progress, more than 600 jobs have been created in the region. Blue Origin has invested more than $2.5 billion in facilities and infrastructure at all sites, including $1 billion invested in the rebuild of historic LC-36, which is nearing completion.
NEWSFEB 25, 2021NEW GLENN’S PROGRESS TOWARDS MAIDEN FLIGHTAs major progress is being made on the New Glenn launch vehicle and its Cape Canaveral facilities, the schedule has been refined to match the demand of Blue Origin’s commercial customers. The current target for New Glenn’s maiden flight is Q4 2022. The Blue Origin team has been in contact with all of our customers to ensure this baseline meets their launch needs.This updated maiden flight target follows the recent Space Force decision to not select New Glenn for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Launch Services Procurement (LSP). New Glenn is proceeding to fulfill its current commercial contracts, pursue a large and growing commercial market, and enter into new civil space launch contracts. We hope to launch NSSL payloads in the future, and remain committed to serving the U.S. national defense mission. Recent milestones include completion of a New Glenn first stage mockup simulator, completion of a structural test facility, and hardware milestones for tanks, stage modules, and composite fairings.In addition to program progress, more than 600 jobs have been created in the region. Blue Origin has invested more than $2.5 billion in facilities and infrastructure at all sites, including $1 billion invested in the rebuild of historic LC-36, which is nearing completion.
Quote from: IanO on 03/19/2019 09:17 pmI'll be the contrarian and suggest the Long March 9. Superheavy launch capability is a statement about the health of the country's economy, how much excess they have to spend on vanity projects, and China's economy is the one trending upwards.The most recent info I see on the Long March 9 program notes- "The Long March 9 is slated to be ready for a test flight around 2030" from an article here: https://spacenews.com/china-reveals-details-for-super-heavy-lift-long-march-9-and-reusable-long-march-8-rockets/. Did you have some updated info on the development effort?
Vulcan, SLS, NG, SS...in that order...
Vulcan - Initial flight article waiting for flight-ready engine delivery and integration
The "nothing" option won so this poll needs to be remade.My order would be SLS, Vulcan, Starship followed much later by New Glenn.
Current vehicle launch readiness as far as I am aware for SLS, SS, Vulcan & NG 5 as of Jan 2022SLS - WDR scheduled for late Feb for the stacked Artemis 1 mission, launch date to be considered after thatSS - current B4 + SS20 flight articles have been stacked and had full prop loads (together as a stack?) have had separate static fires- waiting on FAA approval for launch considerationVulcan - Initial flight article waiting for flight-ready engine delivery and integrationNew Glenn - pathfinder test article only, no flight-ready engines available yet either That's a rough description- if anyone has more useful, current information, please add.
Per Ars Technica's weekly rocket report- "Sources have told Ars that the realistic "no earlier than" date for Artemis I inside NASA is now February 2022, and this presumes a successful Green Run hot fire test in early March."Not sure that SLS still in the running to launch this year. Need to keep a close on the completion of the Green run.At least we're now getting dates for New Glenn, even if they aren't in this year
Quote from: dlapine on 01/06/2022 12:56 amCurrent vehicle launch readiness as far as I am aware for SLS, SS, Vulcan & NG 5 as of Jan 2022SLS - WDR scheduled for late Feb for the stacked Artemis 1 mission, launch date to be considered after thatSS - current B4 + SS20 flight articles have been stacked and had full prop loads (together as a stack?) have had separate static fires- waiting on FAA approval for launch considerationVulcan - Initial flight article waiting for flight-ready engine delivery and integrationNew Glenn - pathfinder test article only, no flight-ready engines available yet either That's a rough description- if anyone has more useful, current information, please add.Are the flight booster and upper stage for Vulcan actually ready? I thought the stage that did the WDR was not going to be the first flight booster. And ULA has been fairly cagey about the readiness of Centaur, which was not part of the booster WDR.Booster 4 has not had a full prop load or static fire. Booster 3 did a static fire, but only with a partial prop load, 3 (?) engines, and on the suborbital pad. IT's not clear that the orbital pad can support a full prop load in the near future.New Glenn is far behind the others. Blue seems to be still trying to figure out manufacturing and structural testing. That leaves SLS. But a Q1 launch appears to be out of the question now, and there remains a lot of pad hardware and operations that have never been run with a rocket out there, so more delays seem inevitable. IMO SLS and SS are too close to call. Vulcan is most likely 3rd, and New Glenn a distant 4th that will probably first launch over a year behind the others.
This should be settled now, so the poll can be locked. SLS was first.
Poll
