USAF EELV/NSSL Phase 2 Launch Service Procurement (Winners Announced)

[TorenAltair]

Not sure if I overlooked it somewhere. Is the 60-40 split regarding to launches or to payment? If to launches, so it is possible that ULA will get (totally made up numbers!) $6b and SpaceX $1b?

[JEF_300]

Not sure if I overlooked it somewhere. Is the 60-40 split regarding to launches or to payment? If to launches, so it is possible that ULA will get (totally made up numbers!) $6b and SpaceX $1b?

60-40 is launches, and the exact payments are upthread:

Wow. ULA = $337 million; SpaceX = $316 million. ULA gets 51.61% of the funding to perform 60% of the launches.

And this is the source of those numbers:
https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2305454/

[lrk]

Those have to be initial payments, not total contract values.  $337 million pays for maybe 3 ULA missions, max. 

[ugordan]

60-40 is launches, and the exact payments are upthread:

Wow. ULA = $337 million; SpaceX = $316 million. ULA gets 51.61% of the funding to perform 60% of the launches.

And this is the source of those numbers:
https://www.defense.gov/Newsroom/Contracts/Contract/Article/2305454/

Those numbers only cover 2 ULA launches and 1 SpaceX launch in fiscal year 2022. As gongora already stated upthread, no conclusion about the overall cost breakdown can be made from those numbers, especially since it's likely SpaceX included at least part of the expenses of a new VIF and extended fairing development onto that single award for 2022.

[ncb1397]

What are the odds this is end of the line for OmegA? does it have enough commercial viability to finish development and enter the market?

I think they continue for the first launch at minimum. The boosters on Omega are similar to the ones on Vulcan that are obviously funded now. RL-10 engines on the upper stage can be ordered at will and they don't have to support fixed costs for that. The first and second stage have been test fired and are similar to the SLS boosters (even being transported by the same train). They already signed for the VAB, 39B access, crawler and mobile launchers (whatever the details of that agreement were and are largely maintained without them). They were potentially about 8 months away when this event occured, so they will likely self fund for the next couple months if Air Force cuts off their development money.

[ChrisWilson68]

What are the odds this is end of the line for OmegA? does it have enough commercial viability to finish development and enter the market?

I think they continue for the first launch at minimum. The boosters on Omega are similar to the ones on Vulcan that are obviously funded now. RL-10 engines on the upper stage can be ordered at will and they don't have to support fixed costs for that. The first and second stage have been test fired and are similar to the SLS boosters (even being transported by the same train). They already signed for the VAB, 39B access, crawler and mobile launchers (whatever the details of that agreement were and are largely maintained without them). They were potentially about 8 months away when this event occured, so they will likely self fund for the next couple months if Air Force cuts off their development money.

Why would they do that?

Northrop Grumman is a business.  They don't throw away money without any hope of a return on that money.

They signed a commercial customer to ride on the first OmegA flight, but the customer's satellites only fill a small portion of OmegA's capacity and nobody believes what they're paying is enough to cover even the marginal costs of that flight.  It's a test flight with a customer willing to accept high risks for a very low price.  NG signed them because they would have had to do a test flight anyway so they might as well get any money they can out of it.  But if the US government isn't interested, the test flight is pointless.

That customer for the test flight is the only commercial customer who has ever shown a genuine interest in a ride on OmegA.

[yg1968]

Because NG didn't receive an award for phase 2, they will loose the rest of their development money that they were supposed to receive:

Of the three winners [ULA, Blue and NG] of this phase, the one that does not win phase 2 will not be able to get the full amount of OTA funding that the Air Force announced it would commit.

https://spacenews.com/air-force-awards-launch-vehicle-development-contracts-to-blue-origin-northrop-grumman-ula/

[Steven Pietrobon]

Does this mean that ULA is getting $337M for two flights ($158.5M $168.5M each) and SpaceX $316M for one flight?

[Lars-J]

Does this mean that ULA is getting $337M for two flights ($158.5M each) and SpaceX $316M for one flight?

Yes. But the SpaceX award likely includes some funds for vertical payload integration facilities at 39A. And it could also be a partially expended FH flight.

[ChrisWilson68]

Does this mean that ULA is getting $337M for two flights ($158.5M each) and SpaceX $316M for one flight?

I think it's more accurate to say that ULA is getting $337M for two flights plus fixed costs and SpaceX is getting $316M for one flight plus fixed costs.

As others on this thread have noted, SpaceX needs to build vertical integration facility and develop a larger fairing, both of which are significant expenses, and traditionally the government pays up front for its launch providers to develop capabilities to serve the government's needs.

I would expect the ratio of flights to the amount the government pays to go up in following years, or maybe even in 2022 as more flights are ordered for that year.

[yg1968]

Does this mean that ULA is getting $337M for two flights ($158.5M each) and SpaceX $316M for one flight?

Yes. But the SpaceX award likely includes some funds for vertical payload integration facilities at 39A. And it could also be a partially expended FH flight.

What is interesting is that NASA may end up using the extended fairing FH the next year in 2023 for HALO and PPE. A sollicitation hasn't been issued yet for this but FH is expected to be one of the front runners.

[yg1968]

In October 2018, the Air Force awarded Launch Service Agreement (LSA) contracts to ULA, Northrop Grumman, and Blue Origin to support the development of their rockets. These funds were intended to help the companies make competitive bids for the mid-2020s launch contracts (SpaceX was excluded, likely because its rockets were already flying).

Not all of those development funds have been paid, however, and those contracts will now be wound down for losing bidders Northrop and Blue Origin. "We will work with those two companies to determine the right point to tie off their work under the LSA agreements," Roper said. "The goal is not to carry them indefinitely, the point of an LSA was to create a more competitive environment."

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/the-air-force-selects-ula-and-spacex-for-mid-2020s-launches/

[FutureSpaceTourist]

https://twitter.com/thesheetztweetz/status/1291870033853939712

Blue Origin CEO Bob Smith, in a statement to CNBC regarding losing out on the Air Force’s NSSL awards, says the company has privately invested “more than $2.5 billion” to develop its New Glenn rocket:
cnbc.com/2020/08/07/spa…

Edit to add:

NEWS AUG 7, 2020
BE-4 ENGINE WILL SUPPORT U.S. SPACE FORCE’S NATIONAL SECURITY SPACE LAUNCH PROGRAM

Today, Blue Origin issued the following statement regarding the U.S. Space Force’s National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Launch Services Procurement (LSP) announcement:

“We are disappointed in the decision that New Glenn was not selected for the National Security Space Launch (NSSL) Phase 2 Launch Services Procurement (LSP). We submitted an incredibly compelling offer for the national security community and the U.S. taxpayer. Blue Origin’s offer was based on New Glenn’s heavy-lift performance, unprecedented private investment of more than $2.5 billion, and a very competitive single basic launch service price for any mission across the entire ordering period. We are proceeding with New Glenn development to fulfill our current commercial contracts, pursue a large and growing commercial market, and enter into new civil space launch contracts. We remain confident New Glenn will play a critical role for the national security community in the future due to the increasing realization that space is a contested domain and a robust, responsive, and resilient launch capability is ever more vital to U.S security.

Blue Origin is very proud that our BE-4 engine will power United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan launch vehicle in support of the Space Force’s NSSL program and end reliance on Russian-built engines. The BE-4 is the most powerful liquefied natural gas-fueled rocket engine ever developed and the first oxygen-rich staged combustion engine made in the U.S. We look forward to supporting ULA’s long-standing role in launching national security payloads.”
- Bob Smith, CEO, Blue Origin

https://www.blueorigin.com/news/be4-to-support-national-security-space-launch-program

Doesn’t sound to me like Blue will be contesting the result.

[JEF_300]

Yeah, those statements make it sound like they're conceding the results. Perhaps they feel they already challenged the results as best as they could back in the spring.

[FutureSpaceTourist]

I guess SpaceX really are on holiday, not a word from them about the announcement? Not even a tweet from Elon.

I find that a little odd, surely they could have had a prepared statement for release?

[ChrisWilson68]

I guess SpaceX really are on holiday, not a word from them about the announcement? Not even a tweet from Elon.

I find that a little odd, surely they could have had a prepared statement for release?

It could be that they thought they'd get the 60% share and now they're trying to figure out whether to complain or just accept the 40%.  Or maybe waiting for their debrief from the government explaining why they only got 40% to decide how to react.

[Lars-J]

There was no realistic universe where SpaceX expected to win 60%. This is not surprising, but a big win. ULA was essentially locked in as one of the winners, SpaceX was the one that could have lost out.

[TrevorMonty]

It was always 2 horse race, if NG or Omega were flying things might of been different.

[su27k]

I guess SpaceX really are on holiday, not a word from them about the announcement? Not even a tweet from Elon.

I find that a little odd, surely they could have had a prepared statement for release?

Elon didn't tweet about their GLS win either, if it's not Starship/Starlink, he's not interested....

There's also the LSA lawsuit to consider, if SpaceX still want to continue it, they need to be careful about what they say in public. Or they may want to drop it, which also requires careful decision.

[skater]

I'll be really interested in reading the justification for giving ULA 60%.

Just speculation, but maybe because ULA has arranged their orbital insertion capabilities, payload handling and scheduling around DOD requirements, while with SpaceX, they're just another customer, and might not get quite the white glove treatment on flexibility? I think that people may discount the desire the DOD has to have a captive provider of launch services focused primarily on their needs, which is essentially what ULA is. Presumably there will be a contract debrief, and maybe that will become public.