Author Topic: SpaceX Crewed Dragon Circumlunar Mission  (Read 504475 times)

Offline Proponent

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #480 on: 03/01/2017 10:08 am »
I doubt any funds liberated from SLS will go to NASA.

If, say, SLS were canceled (not that I expect that), I doubt Sen. Shelby would fight redirecting some of its funding to, say, buying more EELVs (made in Decatur, Alabama) or to development of large-scale space power or depot technology at MSFC.  It would still be spending driven by parochial politics, but it could be more productive from a space cadet's point of view.

I'm not saying there is no risk at all to NASA's funding, but I think that with some political skill (which was notably absent when Obama rolled out his FY 2011 budget proposal), the net result could be a higher level of useful funding.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2017 10:17 am by Proponent »

Offline Proponent

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #481 on: 03/01/2017 10:15 am »
I think SLS will be cancelled.  It's a waste of money given the new commercial alternatives coming online.

I don't think that's going to happen soon.  Obama tried to cancel Ares V, but all he managed to do was turn it into SLS, and that was likely mostly because one senator in his party (Bill Nelson) objected.  To cancel SLS, Trump would have to cross several senators and representatives in his own party, and he's got plenty of fights brewing with Congress already.  There is no reason to believe he'd want to blow political capital on something so insignificant as SLS.  As Trump seems a very vindictive person, I could imagine him going after SLS if multiple SLS supporters crossed him in some way, but that's not particularly likely.

Offline ringsider

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #482 on: 03/01/2017 10:16 am »
It appears to me the likely scenario here is that Musk is looking at all ways to increase SpaceX income so he can afford ITS development. Along come a couple guys willing to pay $80 mill each lets say to live out a dream. Musk thinks if I could sell a mission like this twice a year I would have $120 mill (guesstimate) a year to get things moving on ITS. This is probably worth delaying the red dragon programme

He knows this will have political implications for NASA and SLS. He privately probably thinks SLS is a load of nonsense but doesn't want to embarrass NASA so he lets the administration know what he is up to. This sets alarm bells off at NASA and they come up with daft idea of first mission of SLS being manned ( meanwhile falcon design must be frozen and flown 7 times) and maybe ask Musk to delay announcement until they announce There moon mission which he did.

It's hard to know the exact events but Elon needs cash to get ITS done and he is not a guy who will wait around for NASA/ congress to change its mind on SLS. Once falcon is frozen and dragon certified he might be able to spend all surplus from satellite launch and ISS servicing missions on ITS development. Lets say that $200 mill a year plus moon tourists at $100 mill a year. Budget for ITS could be $3 billion over 10 years to 2028. Things are not static of course but hard to see that budget being enough to develop ITS when a Nimitz class carrier costs $13 bill and they already have the plans.

Elon is going to have to come up with some more ideas or get administration and NASA fired up about his vision of Mars to get An ITS on Mars by end of 2020ies, maybe his other ventures will start throwing shed loads of cash in coming years because he probably needs between 4 to 10 times the resources Available from spacex to get this job done.

When you think about it, everything Musk done since 2001 (post- PayPal era) is geared to support Mars colonization someday.

- Solar city = large solar arrays on Mars since Mars Direct nuclear pile is politically unacceptable

- Tesla: electric Mars rovers, obviously

- reusable rocket / capsules: Mars landers

- Space internet, lunar tourists, NASA-COTS-CCDEV, military sats, competition with Arianespace: funding, funding, more funding.

It is a two-prongue attack on Mars colonization: on one side, technology readiness, on the other, massive funding and dollars. Both developments are to work together and converge on Mars within the next decade.
Tunnels...

Offline Kaputnik

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #483 on: 03/01/2017 10:16 am »
We can go back and forth forever on SLS, NASA's budget and those who set it, SpaceX's relationship with NASA, [/size]etc, but....

How will SpaceX recover the crew from the mission around the moon?

There are at least four possibilities:
1) Proven parachute landing in the ocean
2) SpaceX's undemonstrated propulsive landing on the Super Dracos
3) Soyuz style propulsively assisted parachute landing in the dessert. 
4) A drogue only descent with propulsive assist (not mentioned anywhere else that I know of.)

There could be significant dispersion in the location of a splash-down.  SpaceX will have to develop an water recovery operation adequate for crew recovery for Commercial Crew, if NASA doesn't change its demand, but they won't have enough assets to cover a large part of the ocean.  Option 1 seems unlikely.

Option 2 seems pretty far out there.  Almost everything will have been proven, including Falcon Heavy, but not propulsive landing.

Option 3 is my best guess.  There is lots of area in the American southwest, and if the Dragon comes down 100 km off course, it's not likely to be a big problem.  It was, IIRC, the landing method SpaceX wanted to use for Commercial Crew at the beginning, so they have already planed for it.  They used to have plans to demonstrate this from a helicopter drop.

Option 4 is my favorite, with option 3 as a backup.  However, the strongest advantage of option 4 is that there would be much less drift under the parachutes, but that won't be the biggest source of landing point error when returning from the moon.

A dessert landing would be pretty sweet.
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Offline mikelepage

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #484 on: 03/01/2017 11:17 am »
Question for Jim (other professionals feel free to chime in)

Assume that I am a 45 year old lay person with some scientific acumen.  Private practice doctor, former USAF flight doc, >1000 hours private pilot with instrument and aerobatic experience.  Biology major with a little physics and math 25 years ago.  Burning desire to fly in space since watching STS -1 in 4th grade.  Assume I win Powerball and decide I want to purchase this trip free return around the moon with SpaceX.

What are the five most important questions I should ask SpaceX management as part of my due diligence as I consider paying for this trip?

Not an aerospace professional (34yo PhD in Immunology myself), but these are the questions that come to mind for me:

1) I'd want a quantification of risks.  So for instance: 7 days outside the magnetosphere is a radiation dose of ~12.6mSv or about one PET scan (ie nothing to worry about).  What are the risks of RUD at launch, TLI, landing? What kind of testing have the life-support systems been through? (duration/stress testing).  All the places I could die :) This kind of thing.

2) What do I need to learn in order to gain a strong working understanding of the Dragon2? It may all be automated - and I might not be allowed to change anything, but I want to be able know the parts of the ship, such that if the ground teams are diagnosing a problem, I can follow along on the control screen inside the Dragon, verifying the readings they are using.  Supposing some completely unforeseen, compound, emergency (eg loss of communications + hurricane forms at the landing site during the mission), will there be a failsafe in the interface so I can simply and manually adjust the programmed burns and move my landing site by 1000km?

3) What kind of control will I be allowed over the internet communication back to Earth.  Could I livestream the entire thing in 4K if I wanted to?  If my role in this mission is to be a talking, breathing payload, then I want to make sure it's worth it.

4) Suppose I want to run my own experiments/launch smallsats etc, is SpaceX open to working with me like that?  I can't imagine why they wouldn't be, but still that would be an expectation of mine.

5) Do I get to keep my underpants?

My $0.02.



Offline JamesH65

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #485 on: 03/01/2017 11:50 am »
Thoughts on training for the flight and whether a SpaceX 'pilot' is necessary.

I cannot see what benefit having a pilot would give. Given an extremely automated system, I cannot think of anything that a pilot would be able to do that a computer wouldn't be able to do, probably much better. Will the craft even have any manual controls that a pilot would be able to use? What could they possible influence? The craft itself is going to pretty complicated - it's not as if someone on board is going to be able to 'fix' anything even with the right training.

So anyone on board one of these things is a passenger (I think the word tourist is inappropriate), whether they are paid by SpaceX to be there or have paid to be there.

Of course, could be wrong-  perhaps there will be 'user serviceable parts', but what spares would you take with you....apart from duct tape and cable ties? Soldering iron for bad connections? Thick jumper in case the heating fails?


Offline Ric Capucho

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #486 on: 03/01/2017 12:51 pm »
Exactly, no controls for anyone to push, prod, twist or pull. So anyone in Dragon 2 is effectively a (well-heeled) passenger.

But there *is* something that sets an astronaut apart from a "mere" space tourist: EVA.

Ric

Offline Jim

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #487 on: 03/01/2017 01:11 pm »

So anyone on board one of these things is a passenger (I think the word tourist is inappropriate), whether they are paid by SpaceX to be there or have paid to be there.


A passenger that has no specific destination and is along for the ride and sightseeing is a tourist.

Actually,

Tourist:  a person who is traveling or visiting a place for pleasure.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2017 01:12 pm by Jim »

Online uhuznaa

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #488 on: 03/01/2017 01:23 pm »
We can go back and forth forever on SLS, NASA's budget and those who set it, SpaceX's relationship with NASA, [/size]etc, but....

How will SpaceX recover the crew from the mission around the moon?

There are at least four possibilities:
1) Proven parachute landing in the ocean
2) SpaceX's undemonstrated propulsive landing on the Super Dracos
3) Soyuz style propulsively assisted parachute landing in the dessert. 
4) A drogue only descent with propulsive assist (not mentioned anywhere else that I know of.)

There could be significant dispersion in the location of a splash-down.  SpaceX will have to develop an water recovery operation adequate for crew recovery for Commercial Crew, if NASA doesn't change its demand, but they won't have enough assets to cover a large part of the ocean.  Option 1 seems unlikely.

Option 2 seems pretty far out there.  Almost everything will have been proven, including Falcon Heavy, but not propulsive landing.

Option 3 is my best guess.  There is lots of area in the American southwest, and if the Dragon comes down 100 km off course, it's not likely to be a big problem.  It was, IIRC, the landing method SpaceX wanted to use for Commercial Crew at the beginning, so they have already planed for it.  They used to have plans to demonstrate this from a helicopter drop.

Option 4 is my favorite, with option 3 as a backup.  However, the strongest advantage of option 4 is that there would be much less drift under the parachutes, but that won't be the biggest source of landing point error when returning from the moon.

I think everything that involves firing the SuperDracos without depleting the propellants before touch down is much too risky. If you're sitting on lots of hypergols you definitely want to have everything nicely sealed or the tanks empty when you hit the ground or water.

So it will either be a full powered landing or a parachute landing in the ocean. The latter will have to work anyway in an emergency.

But yes, for tourism you don't want to add the expenses of plucking the craft out of the middle of the ocean, so in the long run it will be powered landings right on the landing pad. I have a hard time though seeing that happening next year after a lunar flight.

Offline matthewkantar

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #489 on: 03/01/2017 01:26 pm »

So anyone on board one of these things is a passenger (I think the word tourist is inappropriate), whether they are paid by SpaceX to be there or have paid to be there.


A passenger that has no specific destination and is along for the ride and sightseeing is a tourist.

Actually,

Tourist:  a person who is traveling or visiting a place for pleasure.

Not a dictionary definition, but astronauts are paid to go, while tourists pay to go.

Matthew

Offline maitri982

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #490 on: 03/01/2017 01:31 pm »
We don't know the political/funding consequences yet.

What one should be concerned for is our good friends that might get caught up in a RIF as a consequence. Especially as it seems that govt funding might be across the board may get cut. Especially mid level GS. Who aren't in the greatest position to go elsewhere. At least that's my concern here.


I don't want a single job lost at NASA...In fact I want expansion.  But I think NASA should get out of the deep involvement in creating launchers via these cost plus contracts.  It has failed over and over and simply does not work.  Instead incentivize commercial providers to provide what you need and prove that they can at a given price.

NASA should focus on exploration and science, which they are peerless at.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #491 on: 03/01/2017 01:40 pm »
In my world of aviation, if you are the operator you are the PIC, either private or for hire commercial. Anyone else on board is considered a "passenger" the destination does not matter even if you return back to the field without landing. Now to Jim's point I can see the addition of the word tourist such as passengers that buy tickets to have a scenic Grand Canyon aerial tour, thus "tourist-passengers". So what does that leave: Tourist-Passenger-Astronaut" or TPA...
« Last Edit: 03/01/2017 03:30 pm by Rocket Science »
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Offline Proponent

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #492 on: 03/01/2017 01:57 pm »
You still haven't given any evidence.  The timing of Musk's announcement relative to the EM-1 announcement could be coincidence.  Or the EM-1 announcement could have been rushed to come before Musk's announcement, which the the opposite of the causal relationship you're claiming.  Or the EM-1 announcement might have triggered the customers to do the deal with Musk.  There are all kinds of possibilities.  The truth is we just don't know.

That's right, we don't know.

All we have is Thiel in the administration, a sudden announcement by Musk, Bergin's source in NASA, and Yang and Berger's tweets about tonight. A lot of smoke. No point arguing whether or not we see flames.

Let's review the history of the round-the-moon-by-2020 idea in a little more detail.


5 February.  Andy Pasztor publishes a Wall Street Journal article entitled "Trump Space Policy Options Emphasize Role of Private Enterprise".  One passage pertains to circum-lunar missions:
Quote from: Andy Pasztor in WSJ, 5 Feb
In the email, Mr. Miller advocates that NASA “hold an internal competition between Old Space and New Space” to determine the best and least expensive way to return to the moon. “If this initiative can be approved quickly by the White House, and appropriately funded,” he said in the email, there could be “private American astronauts, on private space ships, circling the moon by 2020.”
So, competition between NASA and American industry is integral to the idea at inception.

15 February.  News leaks that NASA is looking at making EM-1 a circum-lunar flight with a crew.  In accordance with the WSJ piece ten days before, one might assume that a similar mission utilizing commercial vehicles is also under consideration....

23 February.  Strongly pro-commercial NASA liason Gene Autry resigns just six weeks after having been appointed.  He makes a cold parting statement about crewing EM-1: "Autry said he has faith that NASA, its vendors, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel and other reviewers will 'make a wise choice' about whether or not to add crew to Exploration Mission-1, or EM-1."  ASAP's position can confidently be predicted to be negative.

24 February.  NASA holds a press conference about launching a crew on EM-1 in 2019, without any mention of a commercially-based alternative.

26 February.  Elon Musk tweets about a SpaceX announcement at 1 PM PST the following day.

27 February.  A scheduled House vote to pass S.442, the joint Senate-House NASA Transition Authorization Act of 2017, expected to be uncontroversial, is suddenly postponed, apparently because of disputes with the White House and Justice Department* regarding three commercially oriented sections.  Though pro-commercial, the provisions hardly threaten Orion/SLS, which is supported throughout the bill.

27 February.  Elon Musk announces SpaceX's intention to fly a circum-lunar mission with two people aboard in 2018.


Put yourself in Musk's shoes for moment.  He was one of the few tech moguls to co-operate with Trump and has taken heat for it.  There's lots of talk from the Trump transition team about supporting commercial space endeavors, but, when push comes to shove, he gets the cold shoulder.  I'd be pretty ticked off.  Wouldn't you?

So, my conclusions are:

1. Musk got played.  Now it's no more Mr. Nice Guy, and that's why he was willing (and probably a little eager) to embarrass NASA by announcing SpaceX's circum-lunar mission.  I hope Musk's approach works, but, as Eric Berger says, it's risky.

2. The results of the first round of the match between oldspace and newspace under Trump are in:  newspace got shellacked (and there may not be many more rounds).  You know all that stuff you heard about Trump's business-like approach, about promoting American industry, and so forth?  Well, with respect to space policy, as they say in the President's native Queens, FUGGEDABOUDIT!!!


* Headed up, of course, by Jeff Sessions, former senator from Alabama, which is the heart of the SLS empire.


EDIT:  Added (after rsdavis9's like) footnote about Attorney General Jeff Sessions.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2017 02:39 pm by Proponent »

Offline bad_astra

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #493 on: 03/01/2017 02:02 pm »

So anyone on board one of these things is a passenger (I think the word tourist is inappropriate), whether they are paid by SpaceX to be there or have paid to be there.


A passenger that has no specific destination and is along for the ride and sightseeing is a tourist.

Actually,

Tourist:  a person who is traveling or visiting a place for pleasure.

If successful, the two of them will hold the altitude record currently held by the crew of Apollo 13. They'll be explorers.
« Last Edit: 03/01/2017 02:03 pm by bad_astra »
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Offline ThereIWas3

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #494 on: 03/01/2017 02:11 pm »
If all these 'tourists' get out of it is a week of weightlessness, and peering at the Moon through the porthole, I think it would not be worth the money.  Now, if they are trained to operate experiments located in the trunk it gets more interesting.  And if there are cameras back there they would get a better view on their internal screens (Dragon 2 has great displays) than looking through a smudged window.

Online uhuznaa

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #495 on: 03/01/2017 02:18 pm »
Exactly, no controls for anyone to push, prod, twist or pull. So anyone in Dragon 2 is effectively a (well-heeled) passenger.

But there *is* something that sets an astronaut apart from a "mere" space tourist: EVA.

Ric

I would think that part of the package will be some deep familiarization with the craft anyway. Also I think that there WILL be some manual controls like attitude control. And in a pinch you also WILL want to be able to assure that the antenna points the right way to keep up communications. Note that neither SpaceX nor Musk have even touched the word "tourist" here.

I definitely would want to be able to do some troubleshooting, rebooting computers and so on. I doubt very much that anyone going for that would be happy with just being strapped in and being told to enjoy the ride.

Offline Coastal Ron

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #496 on: 03/01/2017 02:20 pm »
A passenger that has no specific destination and is along for the ride and sightseeing is a tourist.

Actually,

Tourist:  a person who is traveling or visiting a place for pleasure.

But a tourist is unlikely to be familiar enough with their transportation to fix it if it breaks, which is why these are adventurers.

Plus tourists only travel to places that have been traveled to already, and deemed "safe enough".  Being the first to do something, and in an unproven transport system (for it's application), is being an adventurer.
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Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #497 on: 03/01/2017 02:24 pm »
If all these 'tourists' get out of it is a week of weightlessness, and peering at the Moon through the porthole, I think it would not be worth the money.  Now, if they are trained to operate experiments located in the trunk it gets more interesting.  And if there are cameras back there they would get a better view on their internal screens (Dragon 2 has great displays) than looking through a smudged window.
I'd rather have an EVA thanks... ;)
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Offline CraigLieb

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #498 on: 03/01/2017 02:25 pm »
My opinion (of course)
The discussions about there not being enough demand for Falcon Heavy launches have now been put to rest.  Plus, the business model has expanded in the near term to include private spaceflight for significant(?) profit. It also brings the re-use model into focus since this mission is not affordable without reuse.
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Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #499 on: 03/01/2017 02:29 pm »
If all these 'tourists' get out of it is a week of weightlessness, and peering at the Moon through the porthole, I think it would not be worth the money.  Now, if they are trained to operate experiments located in the trunk it gets more interesting.  And if there are cameras back there they would get a better view on their internal screens (Dragon 2 has great displays) than looking through a smudged window.

We know that the passengers "know each other", so becoming founders of the 400000 Miles high club might be part of the motivation. In this case a pilot astronaut would be a real problem...
« Last Edit: 03/01/2017 02:29 pm by jpo234 »
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