Author Topic: SpaceX Crewed Dragon Circumlunar Mission  (Read 504526 times)

Offline Space Ghost 1962

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #40 on: 02/27/2017 08:53 pm »
Keep in mind Musk and Bezos are doing two different things.

Bezos is doing a business meant for rapid repeated flights. He wants volume to build a reliable business.

Musk wants to enable his Mars adventurism market by bootstrapping it with a lunar adventurism market. He doesn't need volume, he just needs to prove its market existence with a few missions.

That said, he's clearly frozen Bezos balls.

Offline Johnnyhinbos

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #41 on: 02/27/2017 08:53 pm »
I'm somehow glum about this announcement. I mean, it's great that this move is happening - that the technology and processes will be developed to further humanity into space. But at the same time - to have that first great leap in 50 year go to ... tourists!?. This hurts and makes me a bit angry. People with extreme amounts of money are yet again able to buy their way though life. I would have been happier if the announcement read: "Wealthy private individuals donate significant money to SpaceX to train and launch two engineering citizen scientists on a free return orbit of the moon. The two future private astronauts will be chosen based on merit, education, and their ability to stimulate and captivate the future generation of space explorer..." (you get the idea).

Am I alone in this?
John Hanzl. Author, action / adventure www.johnhanzl.com

Offline geza

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #42 on: 02/27/2017 08:53 pm »
Apollo 8 was the first shot of the Saturn-V sending anything toward the moon.

Yes, but there was a unmanned test of the high-speed reentry by the Apollo capsule.

Offline Toast

Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #43 on: 02/27/2017 08:53 pm »
This makes me nervous the same way a crewed EM-1 mission does. On the other hand, Falcon Heavy and Dragon should have a few flights under their belts by then, which retires the risk substantially. Other than the Falcon Heavy demo mission, though, do we have any idea how many FH launches we'll see by next year? Seems high risk--if stuff goes south, SpaceX could have a PR disaster on their hands that could jeopardize their long-term goals.

Offline Confusador

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #44 on: 02/27/2017 08:53 pm »
Any speculation if they will do an unmanned dry run?
This is not "speculation", this is clearly explained it will be the case in the official statement.

The dry run mentioned is to the ISS, it does not appear they're going to do a lunar dry run.

Offline gospacex

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #45 on: 02/27/2017 08:54 pm »
Space tourism is a side show. I hope these stunt persons paid full price for this. Seems to have little upside and many possible pitfalls. This make SpaceX seem less serious.

This is after many threads which struggle to find a way to make $$$ on spaceflight. Now someone does make $$$ on spaceflight.

Offline robert_d

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #46 on: 02/27/2017 08:54 pm »
Any speculation if they will do an unmanned dry run?  Maybe with the Falcon Heavy demo?

If I was the paying customer, I would feel more comfortable that they are certified by NASA for commercial crew AND they successfully demonstrated the Circumlunar flight path
That becomes a great idea now - send a used Dragon 1 around the Moon to test Comm and Heat Shield. If enough weight margin, drop a commsat at EML-2.

Offline Welsh Dragon

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #47 on: 02/27/2017 08:54 pm »
I'm somehow glum about this announcement. I mean, it's great that this move is happening - that the technology and processes will be developed to further humanity into space. But at the same time - to have that first great leap in 50 year go to ... tourists!?. This hurts and makes me a bit angry. People with extreme amounts of money are yet again able to buy their way though life. I would have been happier if the announcement read: "Wealthy private individuals donate significant money to SpaceX to train and launch two engineering citizen scientists on a free return orbit of the moon. The two future private astronauts will be chosen based on merit, education, and their ability to stimulate and captivate the future generation of space explorer..." (you get the idea).

Am I alone in this?
I see your point, but what science could be done? It's a free return flyby, presumably with tight payload margins. It will mostly likely be entirely automated anyway.
« Last Edit: 02/27/2017 08:58 pm by Welsh Dragon »

Offline Bynaus

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #48 on: 02/27/2017 08:55 pm »
Very nice. I guess there is no word on whether this means the inaugural FH launch will throw a Dragon around the Moon too? After all, the way things are set up now, the two "tourists/adventurers" will fly on a hardly flight-proven space ship, on the first mission to a new region, a first mission with a high-velocity entry profile, etc. It would seem to make sense to test this first...

PS: I don't think it says so in the announcement. The unmanned mission mentioned there is DM-1 (to the ISS).
More of my thoughts: www.final-frontier.ch (in German)

Offline envy887

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #49 on: 02/27/2017 08:56 pm »
Can we do a back of the envelope calculation of the price? My gu is about $500 million...

NASA buys CRS missions for ~$125 million. This basically just adds 2 (reusable) side boosters which are ~$40 million each new, so I'd say the cost is unlikely to be more than $200 million and could be much less.

Offline Rocket Science

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #50 on: 02/27/2017 08:56 pm »
So, when I said watch Elon shoot the Moon before the SLS/Orion crewed proposal on that thread, I got yelled at...
Now, you can say it, I was right... ;)
https://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=42319.0
« Last Edit: 02/27/2017 08:58 pm by Rocket Science »
"The laws of physics are unforgiving"
~Rob: Physics instructor, Aviator

Offline Star One

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #51 on: 02/27/2017 08:56 pm »
I'm somehow glum about this announcement. I mean, it's great that this move is happening - that the technology and processes will be developed to further humanity into space. But at the same time - to have that first great leap in 50 year go to ... tourists!?. This hurts and makes me a bit angry. People with extreme amounts of money are yet again able to buy their way though life. I would have been happier if the announcement read: "Wealthy private individuals donate significant money to SpaceX to train and launch two engineering citizen scientists on a free return orbit of the moon. The two future private astronauts will be chosen based on merit, education, and their ability to stimulate and captivate the future generation of space explorer..." (you get the idea).

Am I alone in this?

This is very much in line of where companies like Space X are going to make their money. This is what commercial space should be outside of government.

Offline jsgirald

Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #52 on: 02/27/2017 08:57 pm »
No mention of a crew, only 2 passengers?
"For every expert, there is an equal and opposite expert".

Offline Eagandale4114

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #53 on: 02/27/2017 08:58 pm »
No mention of a crew, only 2 passengers?

No crew. Just the passengers.

Offline jpo234

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #54 on: 02/27/2017 08:58 pm »
I'm somehow glum about this announcement. I mean, it's great that this move is happening - that the technology and processes will be developed to further humanity into space. But at the same time - to have that first great leap in 50 year go to ... tourists!?. This hurts and makes me a bit angry. People with extreme amounts of money are yet again able to buy their way though life. I would have been happier if the announcement read: "Wealthy private individuals donate significant money to SpaceX to train and launch two engineering citizen scientists on a free return orbit of the moon. The two future private astronauts will be chosen based on merit, education, and their ability to stimulate and captivate the future generation of space explorer..." (you get the idea).

Am I alone in this?
I think the importance is that these are the very first baby steps to a cislunar economy. Tourism is one of the biggest industries on earth.
You want to be inspired by things. You want to wake up in the morning and think the future is going to be great. That's what being a spacefaring civilization is all about. It's about believing in the future and believing the future will be better than the past. And I can't think of anything more exciting than being out there among the stars.

Offline Craftyatom

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #55 on: 02/27/2017 08:58 pm »
Worth noting that this flight would break the existing human altitude record set by Apollo 13 of 400,171 km (248,655 mi).  Certainly something I can see money being put up for.
All aboard the HSF hype train!  Choo Choo!

Offline alang

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #56 on: 02/27/2017 08:59 pm »
As many have probably speculated they may we'll try to hit the 50th anniversary of Apollo 8.
However, the end of 2019 seems more likely and I hope doesn't mangle red dragon plans.
Also, the first time SpaceX kills people will be a significant psychological moment for the company, I hope they take their time.

Offline Bynaus

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #57 on: 02/27/2017 08:59 pm »
I'm somehow glum about this announcement. I mean, it's great that this move is happening - that the technology and processes will be developed to further humanity into space. But at the same time - to have that first great leap in 50 year go to ... tourists!?. This hurts and makes me a bit angry. People with extreme amounts of money are yet again able to buy their way though life. I would have been happier if the announcement read: "Wealthy private individuals donate significant money to SpaceX to train and launch two engineering citizen scientists on a free return orbit of the moon. The two future private astronauts will be chosen based on merit, education, and their ability to stimulate and captivate the future generation of space explorer..." (you get the idea).

Am I alone in this?

Would you rather have these wealthy individuals spend their money on overpriced wines, cars, and yachts? They are investing it in SpaceX instead, a company that will bring us to Mars one day!
More of my thoughts: www.final-frontier.ch (in German)

Offline yg1968

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #58 on: 02/27/2017 08:59 pm »
Can we do a back of the envelope calculation of the price? My gu is about $500 million...

The Russians were offering a similar mission for $150 million for each spaceflight participant. So I am guessing something closer to that amount.

Offline LM13

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Re: SpaceX Crewed Circumlunar Mission - 2018
« Reply #59 on: 02/27/2017 09:00 pm »
Can we do a back of the envelope calculation of the price? My gu is about $500 million...

Gesendet von meinem SM-T800 mit Tapatalk

SpaceX said in 2012 that their aim is $160 M per Dragon 2 flight.  Minus $60 million for F9, that's $100 M per Dragon 2.  Plus $100 M for FH, and we can estimate a price of slightly over $200 M (with some extra for mission-specific costs like communications). 

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